Aurora Watch this Weekend

Nothing really visible to the naked eye but a four-second camera exposure is showing up nice purple and some green hues across the northern horizon right now.

The clouds came in Sligo but before they did saw a few tinges of green and pink.

Not as clear as Sryanbruen’s.. these were taken in the back garden on my phone last night -North East.

I went out for the Perseids but got the aurora too in Mornington. Seen a few but didn't capture a single one on cam. The legacy from Monday's G4 geomagnetic storm (the third strongest this solar cycle to date) as solar parameters were very mediocre.

A chance of aurora tonight. The expected CME from a X1.1 flare that occurred on Wednesday morning has arrived this afternoon bringing a spike in the interplanetary magnetic field. Solar wind is relatively slow and its orientation (the Bz) has been fluctuating between south and north. The Bz has been very negative an hour ago and again now whilst I'm typing this. If it were to sustain this way, there is the likelihood increasing of a more significant display rather than just a few sporadic bursts which is probably what's most likely tonight… especially with that solar wind speed.

Weather wise it doesn't look great. Some clear spells expected but fair amounts of cloud and there is also a 95% moon which will hinder naked eye viewing and capturing of the aurora.

Diffused display last night at Howth.

Solar maximum baby and the descending phase of a solar cycle historically favours more auroras too. Last solar cycle 24 from 2008 to 2019 was the weakest in a century since SC16 at the beginning of the 20th century so therefore there wasn't much auroral activity. There wasn't even a single G5 event. SC25 is still on the weaker end of solar cycles but is much more active than the last one.

^ .…

Picking up some colors on my phones camera near Kinsale.

Should be visible to anyone in the Northern half of the country right now.

Nice burst of aurora coming up to 1am last night at Knockbridge, Louth.

Some more activity on the way https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/wsa-enlil-solar-wind-prediction

only had the phone last Thursday evening , 12th Sep, ( Foxford)

There was a decent G3 aurora a few days ago that was very delayed when it was expected over the weekend. Some parts got lucky with clear spells on both Sunday and Monday night.

A X1.8 flare earlier today produced a full halo extremely fast CME that is expected to impact the earth's magnetic field by tomorrow afternoon Thursday according to NOAA model travelling initially at a speed of around 1800 km/s. For context the velocity of the May 2024 CME (at least the prime one, there was a few) was around 950 km/s whilst the infamous Carrington was estimated to be 2350 km/s. UK model sees impact later around 9/10pm tomorrow night.

A G4 watch has been issued for both Thursday and Friday with G5 not to be ruled out. Basic terms, possibly massive severe aurora potential. It may or may not be as strong as the May event but for now wouldn't expect that. It's historic in of itself that 2024 has had two G4 watches issued when the last one before this year was exactly 20 years ago back in 2004.

Even better, good clear spells likely for many of us tomorrow night. Fingers tightly crossed for another memorable night.

Good to remember that we also depend on the orientation of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) to be southward.

Could be a good one tonight indeed.

Timing of impact looks fortuitous enough, moon phase not the worst. Should be very clear skies for many.

Can't go overly far so might look at somewhere here for a nice dark spot. Or else something more usual around Rush up to Balbriggan. Fortunately in May I was somewhere with far less light pollution.

https://www.lightpollutionmap.info/ ← useful for our eastern dwellers who have a lot more light pollution to deal with. Cameras can still pick up a good aurora in brighter spots, but being honest, I'd be chasing naked eye sightings rather than a display that is only viewed on a screen afterwards.

The below HP30 index can be pretty useful - it is similar to the KP index, but is updated every 30 minutes while the KP is a 3-hour interval index. During the May 2024 G5 storming, it hit values in the range of 9-11. It is not capped at 9 like the KP index. We are currently rocking a 6.6 at this early stage.

https://kp.gfz-potsdam.de/en/hp30-hp60