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Luas Finglas

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Comments

  • #722
    LastCall
    Registered Users Posts: 15 ✭LastCall


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122507890#Comment_122507890

    I didn't know these went out to Tender so early. Doesn't is still need business case approval and Planning permission?



  • #723
    cgcsb
    Registered Users Posts: 9,673 ✭✭✭cgcsb


    They haven't even applied for a railway order which is a 2 year process minimum.



  • #724
    Zebra3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,907 ✭✭✭✭Zebra3


    I can’t wait to see the bridge that takes the Luas over the canal.



  • #725
    blanch152
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,083 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122508143#Comment_122508143

    TII will want to show that they are better at building infrastructure than Irish Rail.

    If LUAS Finglas starts work before, say, Dart Coastal North, then TII will be looking to other LUAS lines being accelerated.



  • #726
    Pete_Cavan
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,973 ✭✭✭Pete_Cavan


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122508143#Comment_122508143

    The tender is not for the construction of Luas Finglas. It is a tender for various as yet unspecified works (high level description of the types of works only) in two lots - Lot 1 <€1m, Lot 2 >€1m. Luas Finglas won't be tendered using that Framework, I only mentioned it because it shows TII see 2028 as a potential start date.



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  • #727
    cgcsb
    Registered Users Posts: 9,673 ✭✭✭cgcsb


    That would be good if that were the case. We could have fingluas by 2031 or 2032. Probably around the same time as DART+, Meteolink and BusConnects. It'll be a great few years all going to plan. But we could also have. Much bigger population by that time so the improvements will no doubt be quickly absorbed by demand. Immigration is now outpacing home construction 4 to 1.



  • #728
    Daith
    Registered Users Posts: 5,010 ✭✭✭Daith


    With the Luas to Finglas, I think the technical issue of the Luas through Tolka Valley Park and the people objecting to it in the housing estate near Mellows Road (it does go quite near) would seem to be the main issues?



  • #729
    spacetweek
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 5,112 Mod ✭✭✭✭spacetweek


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122510992#Comment_122510992

    I think 2030 is more likely. Planning permission going in this year, worst case scenario two years for a planning decision, one more year to go to construction. 3 year build takes you up to 2030.



  • #730
    gjim
    Registered Users Posts: 1,202 ✭✭✭gjim


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122510992#Comment_122510992

    It's not "immigration" - it's population growth which includes one of the highest birth rates in Europe.

    The reporting of that "statistic" annoyed me - it's meaningless when presented as a simple ratio. We build twice as many houses (mostly with at least 3 bedrooms) than apartments. Our bedrooms per housing unit ratio is one of the highest in Europe. Thus "1 to 1" would effectively mean building a new 3-bed semi-detached for every new baby born which would be daft.



  • #731
    MayoSalmon
    Registered Users Posts: 2,323 ✭✭✭MayoSalmon


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122512097#Comment_122512097

    Our birth is declining year on year and it's now the lowest it's been in 60 years.

    https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/irelands-birth-rate-drops-sharply-to-reach-lowest-level-in-decades-1598551.html



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  • #732
    AngryLips
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,743 ✭✭✭AngryLips


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122512097#Comment_122512097

    It's true, if they're not excluding the population growth from childbirth then the article headline might as well read "population growth is outpacing new leaving cert places 4 to 1" - it sounds terrible on the face of it, but the government has nearly two decades to solve that problem, seriously.



  • #733
    Zebra3
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,907 ✭✭✭✭Zebra3


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122510992#Comment_122510992

    We could have a 4km extension on the Luas at the same time as ML being finished?

    Something seriously wrong if that’s the case!!


    (Tho I wouldn’t be complaining if ML opened that year!).



  • #734
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,801 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122512097#Comment_122512097

    Journalists do not understand statistics (or any branch of mathematics).

    If they did, they might have gone into finance or accounting. Most politicians are probably the same. Their frequent use of 'exponential' when referring to something growing quickly shows a misunderstanding of the term.

    They also just luck figures out of the air, or just use the most sensational figure to get notice. Metrolink started at €3 billion, and has grown to €20 billion in some reports, and not a shovel in the ground yet.

    I suppose we get the politicians we deserve, and the journalists as well.



  • #735
    orangerhyme
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,887 ✭✭✭orangerhyme


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122512097#Comment_122512097

    Also the 4 to 1 ratio was from 2015 to 2023.

    We were building very few homes in 2015 to 2019 but our population was growing.

    Also the surge in population from Ukraine was a once off. This was from '22 to '23 and has tailed off.

    I think we're building approx 33,000 homes a year and our population is growing more like 60,000 to 70,000 a year. So a 2:1 ratio is less scary.

    The majority of these homes would be two beds or more.

    So we're building more bedrooms than our population is growing, which is a completely different presentation of the data.

    Anyway it's a meaningless statistic as the pent up demand is the problem. Also lots of the Ukrainians are in hotels anyway.

    Post edited by orangerhyme on


  • #736
    cgcsb
    Registered Users Posts: 9,673 ✭✭✭cgcsb


    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122512097#Comment_122512097

    Our birth rate is 1.7 babies per woman, well below the replacement rate of 2.3 per woman so all of our growth is due to immigration.



  • #737
    Greyian
    Registered Users Posts: 986 ✭✭✭Greyian


    The replacement rate is 2.1 children per woman, not 2.3.

    But that's irrelevant anyway, because in the short term (which is what we are referring to when looking at any one year), it is the number of births vs number of deaths which is relevant.

    We had 54678 births vs 35459 deaths (as per CSO), so population growth of 19219 excluding any immigration/emigration.



  • #738
    gjim
    Registered Users Posts: 1,202 ✭✭✭gjim


    Yeah and it's also important to recognize that the children per woman statistic is backward looking. It may be a good base for predicting for future trends but it also may be misleading.

    For example, we know for a fact that there has been a significant shift in age for women having their first child - from 23 or so to 30 or so in the last 10 years. But we're not yet sure that this means that women will have less kids in future - it's possible they will continue to have the same number of children but just start their families later. In this case - a once off shift in age for women starting families - will appear as a drop in the children per woman statistic but the drop will be temporary.

    There's a strong case for statistics to be taught as a subject to school children (separate to mathematics - in the way physics, chemistry, applied math and the like rely heavily on mathematics but are distinct subjects). Not only to make sense of a world awash with numbers but most experimental science work and increasing amounts of cutting-edge IT work demands significant knowledge of statistics.



  • #739
    Sam Russell
    Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 19,801 Mod ✭✭✭✭Sam Russell


    Mod: Can we keep to Luas extension to Finglas, rather nonsense statistics reported by journalists that do not understand them.



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