Russia-Ukraine War (Threadbanned in op)

The idea that the incursion would trigger some popular uprising to depose Putin, that Russian soldiers would run away as soon as the first shot was fired, was fanciful and pushed by the same folk who always get ahead of themselves any time something happens. The reports from last couple of days make it clear Ukraine is doing something bold but very risky and already paying a high price, both within Russia and in terms of territory back home. I felt from the beginning only in hindsight will we see how wise and successful a move it was. Not only Putin's but also Zelensky and his top military people's reputation have a lot riding on this, particularly as it seems the West knew little about it. A delicate balancing act:

Quite telling about the state of Russian aircraft…. they were really pushing the use of the TU-22's the last few weeks as a projection of force (fastest heavy bomber in the world etc…..)

Then one goes bang while doing so

or in hindsight how dumb it was, short of creating some short term headlines I dont see how the Ukrainians will hold on to this land long enough to turn it into a negotiating chip, Its a real head scratcher, im not sure Ukraine have expendable reserves at this stage

It's not so much Russian general population "panic" ,as russian logistics, rail in particular, the Ukrainians have one of the major supply lines under artillery fire , and while it's far from the only line ,it'll putting serious extra pressure on an already creaking Russian rail system…

I think that is way off. Fundamentally the Russian view in that post does not express their reality (dont at me) but the Russians see this war as existential not one of choice , their people see this conflict as a NATO proxy war with the goal of breaking up Russia, they aint turning and fleeing, the Russians are playing this as an attrition strategy their logic is you attrit the other side until they crack. All wars end right? at the end of this Ukraine will still exist but it will have smaller borders , they will lose some section of the east of the country, the rest is just horse trading

A mix of good and bad news on BBC: hundreds of Russian soldiers captured, airbases hit, but progress is slowing in Kursk and more territory slipping away in Ukraine...

Another Russian column swatted out of existence near Koronevo by HIMARs according to Russians

source: https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/s/LvlQjUzDEg

Another mass surrender of Russians

I think their government believes it and their people are with them, Im sure there is always dissenting opinion but it makes no odds. Im not falling for anything, the point is I dont see Russia collapsing or somehow doing a coup against Putin, that's fantasy land.

Yes, you can see that in any recent Russian vox pop. They talk about the war as if it is something happening in Peru or Tibet…something that doesn't involve them and over which they have no agency. The idea that their opinion could in any way influence the outcome of the war seems beyond alien to them. The fact that their own country has been invaded barely even seems to register with them.

What's dumb about it? Let's see..

It has already diverted Russian forces from the frontlines elsewhere. It's been a huge boost to morale for Ukraine. If they hold any of it, the land can be used as a vital bargaining chip. They have captured hundreds of Russian POWs which can be exchanged. It's once again embarrassed and exposed the Russian leadership and military. It has created world headlines, which is critical for Ukraine to keep the war in the public's eye. It's also created a tactical headache for the Russians who have to expend resources reinforcing that entire border line. It's shown how dynamic the Ukrainian military can be.

If the Russians push them back, the Ukrainians will be in advantageous defensive positions, the Russians will be obliterating their own country to do so, and for what? Best case scenario they reclaim some of their own territory.

The risks? That plus some weakness on the Eastern front which is being ground away anyway inch by inch.