Tesla Talk

jusmeig · 12-06-2019 2:04pm

copeyhagen wrote: »

there's not a hope that the autonomous driving will happen in the next 5 years surely?

Why are you so sure? The dev builds of these cars have been driving autonomously for years.

ELM327 · 12-06-2019 2:10pm

jusmeig wrote: »

Why are you so sure? The dev builds of these cars have been driving autonomously for years.

On known roads though.
They could do full autonomy now from "on ramp to off ramp" (ie NOA with no prompts) but not on country lanes etc.

Fully guided driver assists will be here by end of year able to cope with 99.999% of scenarios, but the ability to be 100% confident 'hands off' will take a lot longer

Sabre Man · 12-06-2019 2:14pm

ELM327 wrote: »

On known roads though.
They could do full autonomy now from "on ramp to off ramp" (ie NOA with no prompts) but not on country lanes etc.

Fully guided driver assists will be here by end of year able to cope with 99.999% of scenarios, but the ability to be 100% confident 'hands off' will take a lot longer

Autopilot isn't based on knowing the roads but on machine learning.

jusmeig · 12-06-2019 2:21pm

ELM327 wrote: »

On known roads though.
They could do full autonomy now from "on ramp to off ramp" (ie NOA with no prompts) but not on country lanes etc.

Fully guided driver assists will be here by end of year able to cope with 99.999% of scenarios, but the ability to be 100% confident 'hands off' will take a lot longer

Ive no idea what the test roads are. Id not worry about the tech being ready, its the miles of red tape and legislation that's the issue.
If an autonomous car can handle 99% of situations, it's still an awful lot safer than a drunk driver

copeyhagen · 12-06-2019 2:35pm

I'm contemplating a model S with AP1, just because I didn't see the autonomy realistically from a legal point of view being ready in the next few years.

I wonder if in fact they WILL be able to retrofit the AP3 to odler cars with some swap down the line, by the time its actually ready.

Mike9832 · 12-06-2019 2:44pm

Sabre Man wrote: »

Autopilot isn't based on knowing the roads but on machine learning.

Pure AI?

lol

Only this year could AI beat gamers at starcraft

Still games it can't beat human's at

jusmeig · 12-06-2019 2:48pm

Mike9832 wrote: »

Pure AI?

lol

Only this year could AI beat gamers at starcraft

Still games it can't beat human's at

Starcraft is much more complicated than driving

Planes have been taking off and landing themselves for years, are you afraid of flying?

handlemaster · 12-06-2019 2:49pm

Mupchease wrote: »

Everybody seams to forget Tesla isn’t just a company that sells cars.

the solar roof is really just a joke, they cant and havent delivered.

Tesla is basically a very small electric car company, with add on notions.

The car models I find are look a little old looking to , the styling needs to be updated, i.e. new models are needed.

Sabre Man · 12-06-2019 3:21pm

handlemaster wrote: »

the solar roof is really just a joke, they cant and havent delivered.

Tesla is basically a very small electric car company, with add on notions.

The car models I find are look a little old looking to , the styling needs to be updated, i.e. new models are needed.

The solar roof is being rolled out in 8 states. That's version 3 of the roof. It's a work in progress.

ELM327 · 12-06-2019 4:21pm

Sabre Man wrote: »

Autopilot isn't based on knowing the roads but on machine learning.

I understand how it is based, but the fact remains that at this moment the tech beyond well lined roads is not capable.

jusmeig · 12-06-2019 4:32pm

ELM327 wrote: »

I understand how it is based, but the fact remains that at this moment the tech beyond well lined roads is not capable.

The current AP in Tesla will only activate if there is well lined roads.
To say the tech is not there yet or not capable is incorrect, it's just a matter of training the network to a point where it can understand unmarked roads.

When Musk says feature complete for AP, he is not saying can drive on a boreen in Kerry at night, he is probably saying you can drive around 95% of North America, their largest market.

handlemaster · 12-06-2019 6:03pm

Sabre Man wrote: »

handlemaster wrote: »

the solar roof is really just a joke, they cant and havent delivered.

Tesla is basically a very small electric car company, with add on notions.

The car models I find are look a little old looking to , the styling needs to be updated, i.e. new models are needed.

The solar roof is being rolled out in 8 states. That's version 3 of the roof. It's a work in progress.

What's the sales like ?.how long ago was this great product unvailed ?

handlemaster · 12-06-2019 6:03pm

Sabre Man wrote: »

handlemaster wrote: »

the solar roof is really just a joke, they cant and havent delivered.

Tesla is basically a very small electric car company, with add on notions.

The car models I find are look a little old looking to , the styling needs to be updated, i.e. new models are needed.

The solar roof is being rolled out in 8 states. That's version 3 of the roof. It's a work in progress.

What's the sales like ?.how long ago was this great product unvailed ?

jhegarty · 13-06-2019 12:12am

copeyhagen wrote: »

I'm contemplating a model S with AP1, just because I didn't see the autonomy realistically from a legal point of view being ready in the next few years.

I wonder if in fact they WILL be able to retrofit the AP3 to odler cars with some swap down the line, by the time its actually ready.

The car doesn't have the required senors/camera. Not a chance of a retrofit.

13-06-2019 7:27am

jhegarty wrote: »

The car doesn't have the required senors/camera. Not a chance of a retrofit.

October or November 2016 build or newer was the magic date mentioned.

ELM327 · 13-06-2019 7:40am

jusmeig wrote: »

The current AP in Tesla will only activate if there is well lined roads.
To say the tech is not there yet or not capable is incorrect, it's just a matter of training the network to a point where it can understand unmarked roads.

When Musk says feature complete for AP, he is not saying can drive on a boreen in Kerry at night, he is probably saying you can drive around 95% of North America, their largest market.

Again, I understand the mechanics of machine learning, I work in a related field as a data/risk analyst and deal with data science and its output on a daily basis.

The tech is not there yet. This is not incorrect. Additionally, feature complete full self driving is level 5 hands off, meaning no driver is required. If it cannot navigate confidently every road situation, from I65 in the US to L4004 in Ireland, then it is not full self driving.

ELM327 · 13-06-2019 7:53am

jusmeig wrote: »

Ive no idea what the test roads are. Id not worry about the tech being ready, its the miles of red tape and legislation that's the issue.
If an autonomous car can handle 99% of situations, it's still an awful lot safer than a drunk driver

It is, but for that 1%, they cannot sell it as level 5 hands off.

13-06-2019 10:10am

Anyway it does sound like Tesla is making steady process in universal self driving. The clips you see from AP1/AP2 cars on joe public's Tesla are not a representation how the internal development is going. For a start the AP3 hardware is not even installed on any cars outside Tesla.

An example Musk mentioned was a parking lot which he explained as a maze with random moving objects. The bottom line is that the car will have to be able to get summoned quicker than what it takes to walk to it. Otherwise it's pointless. And to do that the programming will have to be quite assertive because otherwise the car would just freeze and not move at all.

With true self driving the car has to be able to not only drive on the road but also be able to exit the road to a verge if a collision cannot be otherwise avoided. But the car cannot exit the road where there is for example a drop on the side of the road or a pillar.

Sabre Man · 13-06-2019 10:28am

samih wrote: »

Anyway it does sound like Tesla is making steady process in universal self driving. The clips you see from AP1/AP2 cars on joe public's Tesla are not a representation how the internal development is going. For a start the AP3 hardware is not even installed on any cars outside Tesla.

An example Musk mentioned was a parking lot which he explained as a maze with random moving objects. The bottom line is that the car will have to be able to get summoned quicker than what it takes to walk to it. Otherwise it's pointless. And to do that the programming will have to be quite assertive because otherwise the car would just freeze and not move at all.

With true self driving the car has to be able to not only drive on the road but also be able to exit the road to a verge if a collision cannot be otherwise avoided. But the car cannot exit the road where there is for example a drop on the side of the road or a pillar.

AP3 hardware is installed in all new cars.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-autopilot-hardware-3-model-s-x/

Elon talked about drivable free space at the annual shareholder's meeting a few days ago:
Features will be coming from now till the end of year. With Elon’s version, it can drive from home to office, but still has interventions. Tesla must have a general solution. Progress is faster than it appears because Tesla can only release something when it works generally, not only when it works for one specific location. Previously, the system just looked for drivable free space, but it is now figuring out curbs and spaces you want to drive on, and not just ones you can drive on in an emergency.

13-06-2019 10:46am

Sabre Man wrote: »

AP3 hardware is installed in all new cars.
https://www.teslarati.com/tesla-autopilot-hardware-3-model-s-x/

Elon talked about drivable free space at the annual shareholder's meeting a few days ago:
Features will be coming from now till the end of year. With Elon’s version, it can drive from home to office, but still has interventions. Tesla must have a general solution. Progress is faster than it appears because Tesla can only release something when it works generally, not only when it works for one specific location. Previously, the system just looked for drivable free space, but it is now figuring out curbs and spaces you want to drive on, and not just ones you can drive on in an emergency.

Forgot that the hardware already ships on the new cars, cheers. Musk himself admitted that it would be foolish to let the current version out to joe public as it can be scary at times and requires intervention. The key is that Tesla don't specifically train the car to drive on particulas streches of road or rely on any mapping for the driving as such. The car itself detects the corners and lanes and traffic signs and signals and self driving will also work on new roads that are not mapped yet.

Mike9832 · 13-06-2019 10:23pm

ELM327 wrote: »

jusmeig wrote: »

The current AP in Tesla will only activate if there is well lined roads.
To say the tech is not there yet or not capable is incorrect, it's just a matter of training the network to a point where it can understand unmarked roads.

When Musk says feature complete for AP, he is not saying can drive on a boreen in Kerry at night, he is probably saying you can drive around 95% of North America, their largest market.

Again, I understand the mechanics of machine learning, I work in a related field as a data/risk analyst and deal with data science and its output on a daily basis.

The tech is not there yet. This is not incorrect. Additionally, feature complete full self driving is level 5 hands off, meaning no driver is required. If it cannot navigate confidently every road situation, from I65 in the US to L4004 in Ireland, then it is not full self driving.

A car without a steering wheel, driving itself lol ðŸ˜‚

Not gonna happen in our life time

People are very niave to think this is gonna happen in a few years

jusmeig · 14-06-2019 4:37am

Mike9832 wrote: »

A car without a steering wheel, driving itself lol ðŸ˜‚

Not gonna happen in our life time

People are very niave to think this is gonna happen in a few years

I'll bet you a signed dollar.

We have self flying autonomous planes.
We have self flying autonomous rockets, that take off and send payloads to other planets, where said payloads automously explore and do science, while said self flying rockets land on autonomous drone ships...but we don't have the tech for cars?

Maybe you are saying, we won't have widespread autonomous cars due to getting them cheap enough at scale, this is a better bet! I'd say a decade is more plausible, legislation is not fast. I'd expect to def see lvl 5 concept cars like the Renault lvl 4 that has been driving around for years.

ELM327 · 14-06-2019 7:29am

jusmeig wrote: »

I'll bet you a signed dollar.

We have self flying autonomous planes.
We have self flying autonomous rockets, that take off and send payloads to other planets, where said payloads automously explore and do science, while said self flying rockets land on autonomous drone ships...but we don't have the tech for cars?

Maybe you are saying, we won't have widespread autonomous cars due to getting them cheap enough at scale, this is a better bet! I'd say a decade is more plausible, legislation is not fast. I'd expect to def see lvl 5 concept cars like the Renault lvl 4 that has been driving around for years.

All of which do not have to interact with human drivers or pedestrians in the same space.
Think about the application of an autonomous plane (although the pilot does take off and landing in most commercial applications of 'autonomy'), it follows a chartered course around other aircraft also following the same airspace, with a human skilled to take over and do checks every 20 minutes. This is not hands off autonomy.

Automated rockets follow a chartered mapped out course, with no intrusion.

Tesla AP could easily handle the use cases above now. It already charters mapped courses on lined roads, even with other unknown drivers around so it is arguably ahead of plane autonomy.

copeyhagen · 14-06-2019 11:11am

jhegarty wrote: »

The car doesn't have the required senors/camera. Not a chance of a retrofit.

sensors and cameras don't sound like much of a retrofit required?!

im still leaning towards a model s when they hit the 40k on the road price for a 2015, hopefully this year.

worry about autonomous driving in 5 or 6 years when it becomes reality.

unkel · 14-06-2019 11:26am

copeyhagen wrote: »

im still leaning towards a model s when they hit the 40k on the road price for a 2015, hopefully this year.

Here's a 2016 Model S 85 for GBP36,950, so only a few grand over €40k landed (should have very low VRT, maybe a grand or so)

Linky

ELM327 · 14-06-2019 12:09pm

unkel wrote: »

Here's a 2016 Model S 85 for GBP36,950, so only a few grand over €40k landed (should have very low VRT, maybe a grand or so)

Linky

RWD, no autopilot

Expect that these super early models will be hit hard by depreciation in the coming 12 months, much more so than AP1 cars.

copeyhagen · 14-06-2019 12:22pm

2016 would be ap1

everything 2015 onwards is afaik

plus, im thinking Sept/Oct is around the time that hopefully model 3s are everywhere and used S's come down then

unkel · 14-06-2019 12:45pm

Let's keep our hopes up, those damn Model S will come down in value

ELM327 · 14-06-2019 12:58pm

copeyhagen wrote: »

2016 would be ap1

everything 2015 onwards is afaik

plus, im thinking Sept/Oct is around the time that hopefully model 3s are everywhere and used S's come down then

It's 2016 registered but I do not see the square radar box which denotes AP1 car. Anything built after October 2014 has AP1 hardware.

unkel · 14-06-2019 1:05pm

ELM327 wrote: »

Anything built after October 2014 has AP1 hardware.

That's good to know, thanks. It isn't 100% clear from the pictures if the car does or doesn't have the radar. If it doesn't then it must have been manufactured before October 2014 so? Seems odd if it wasn't put on plates until 2016, but not unheard of

Also, if AP1 hardware is there, but wasn't purchased originally, how much is it to activate it now?

I've kinda decided that if I buy a Model S, it will have to have AP. A Tesla without it is a bit meh.

jhegarty · 14-06-2019 6:52pm

ELM327 wrote: »

It's 2016 registered but I do not see the square radar box which denotes AP1 car. Anything built after October 2014 has AP1 hardware.

I think it's just a bad photo. Looks like AP1 to me.

sk8board · 15-06-2019 8:09am

copeyhagen wrote: »

2016 would be ap1

everything 2015 onwards is afaik

plus, im thinking Sept/Oct is around the time that hopefully model 3s are everywhere and used S's come down then

“everywhere” is a very relative term, and might have the opposite effect to what you think.

fanboys and early adopters are ordering now after a 3 year wait, so there will be a few hundred of them sold.
If the m3 is the car that shows the mass market (the other other 98% of Irish new car buyers) that EVs are a viable option, then you can expect 2nd hand EV values to hold up even better than they currently are, and it would be ICE cars that drop.

2nd EV cars are currently only changing hands between other early adopters

ELM327 · 17-06-2019 7:54am

jhegarty wrote: »

I think it's just a bad photo. Looks like AP1 to me.

Laser vision on you :pac:Yup that's AP1 alright.

copeyhagen · 17-06-2019 7:55am

never thought of it that way, could have the opposite affect!

Mike9832 · 02-07-2019 10:20pm

Record quarter for Tesla

95,000 cars delivered

https://electrek.co/2019/07/02/tesla-global-delivery-record-q2-2019/

With China coming on and RHD starting they looking really good

With 100 mile range in 7 mins charging from the Ferrari quick €60,000 Model 3 performance they are unrivaled right now

Would love to be rich

Gumbo · 02-07-2019 10:41pm

Mike9832 wrote: »

Record quarter for Tesla

95,000 cars delivered

https://electrek.co/2019/07/02/tesla-global-delivery-record-q2-2019/

With China coming on and RHD starting they looking really good

With 100 mile range in 7 mins charging from the Ferrari quick €60,000 Model 3 performance they are unrivaled right now

Would love to be rich

Don’t have to be rich. Just patient.
In 2 years us dopes can start looking for them second hand.

unkel · 02-07-2019 11:41pm

Mike9832 wrote: »

Would love to be rich

Cheaper total cost of ownership of a Tesla Model 3 performance than that of a BMW 318d or Audi A4 diesel which are the preferred and very boring tools of sales reps and lower level managers in this country. Certainly not rich people

jusmeig · 03-07-2019 7:08am

Mike9832 wrote: »

Record quarter for Tesla

95,000 cars delivered

https://electrek.co/2019/07/02/tesla-global-delivery-record-q2-2019/

With China coming on and RHD starting they looking really good

With 100 mile range in 7 mins charging from the Ferrari quick €60,000 Model 3 performance they are unrivaled right now

Would love to be rich

Another good result given the timeframe. Queue the usual short FUD about how nobody wants electric cars...

Mike9832 · 03-07-2019 8:01am

unkel wrote: »

Cheaper total cost of ownership of a Tesla Model 3 performance than that of a BMW 318d or Audi A4 diesel which are the preferred and very boring tools of sales reps and lower level managers in this country. Certainly not rich people

Not rich, but €60,000 still too much, get the cost of ownership but its still a big outlay

Pity they don't have pcp at least

Anyway the tech for mass adoption is here

450km range
Charge 200km in 10 minutes

Its just the price, which should drop over the few years

digiman · 03-07-2019 8:43am

Mike9832 wrote: »

Not rich, but €60,000 still too much, get the cost of ownership but its still a big outlay

Pity they don't have pcp at least

Anyway the tech for mass adoption is here

450km range
Charge 200km in 10 minutes

Its just the price, which should drop over the few years

Is there anywhere in Ireland where you can charge 200km in 10 mins?

eddhorse · 03-07-2019 8:55am

digiman wrote: »

Is there anywhere in Ireland where you can charge 200km in 10 mins?

https://www.electrive.com/2019/06/11/tesla-raises-model-3-charge-capacity-to-200-kw/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PPrVZtzAqX4

The new ionity chargers are pretty quick at 1200km per hour which is 20km per minute which is 200km in 10 mins.

03-07-2019 8:59am

digiman wrote: »

Is there anywhere in Ireland where you can charge 200km in 10 mins?

I don't think so. The Ionity Cashel and Ionity Gorey by the time the first cars ship will be completed, I think, but so far they are limited to 175 kW only which is about 25 kWh charged in 10 minutes and that won't quite get you 200 km at motorway speeds. Maybe up to 150 km per 10 minutes?

Wouldn't be suprised if some of the Tesla chargers got updated from 120 kW between now and September.

ted1 · 03-07-2019 9:02am

eddhorse wrote: »

https://www.electrive.com/2019/06/11/tesla-raises-model-3-charge-capacity-to-200-kw/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PPrVZtzAqX4

The new ionity chargers are pretty quick at 1200km per hour which is 20km per minute which is 200km in 10 mins.

Can the car continuously charge at that rate ?

eddhorse · 03-07-2019 9:13am

ted1 wrote: »

Can the car continuously charge at that rate ?

I think most electric cars never do continuously do it at any rates.
They start off small and increase and then start slowing down after a certain input.
So that's why they say you should stop at 90% as it will take longer for the last 10%.

unkel · 03-07-2019 9:46am

digiman wrote: »

Is there anywhere in Ireland where you can charge 200km in 10 mins?

Not yet. Tesla superchargers will be updated to V3, so you can charge a current Model 3 at 250kW (max)

This means a charge of the LR model from 20%-80% in about 10 minutes for a 250km motorway range at 120km/h

With the current superchargers you'll get 200km motorway range in about 20 minutes.

With the current Ionity CCS charger in Ireland, you'll get 200km motorway speed in about 15 minutes

Both still not too shabby

hatrack · 03-07-2019 10:10am

samih wrote: »

I don't think so. The Ionity Cashel and Ionity Gorey by the time the first cars ship will be completed, I think, but so far they are limited to 175 kW only which is about 25 kWh charged in 10 minutes and that won't quite get you 200 km at motorway speeds. Maybe up to 150 km per 10 minutes?

Wouldn't be suprised if some of the Tesla chargers got updated from 120 kW between now and September.

Model 3 recently got an update to charge at up to 200 kW. One of the people over on the UK Model 3 Facebook group charged their Model 3 at an Ionity charger and got 191 kW.

03-07-2019 10:13am

hatrack wrote: »

Model 3 recently got an update to charge at up to 200 kW. One of the people over on the UK Model 3 Facebook group charged their Model 3 at an Ionity charger and got 191 kW.

The question was in Ireland though where the Ionity chargers are 175 kW max and do just over 150 kW max on Model 3 based on the graph above. Which for a L40 driver like myself feels totally out of this world.

unkel · 03-07-2019 11:22am

samih wrote: »

The question was in Ireland though where the Ionity chargers are 175 kW max

All Ionity chargers are 350kW, but only the ones with the liquid cooling in the cables are enabled for that. Not sure if the Irish ones already have these cables. If not, they are limited to 175kW

ELM327 · 03-07-2019 11:28am

unkel wrote: »

All Ionity chargers are 350kW, but only the ones with the liquid cooling in the cables are enabled for that. Not sure if the Irish ones already have these cables. If not, they are limited to 175kW

The UK ones have been enabled for 350kW (CCS2), I would presume the ones here are too

jarrieta · 04-07-2019 8:11am

Another record in EV registrations in Norway, almost 50% in June and Tesla overtaking all other brands in H1

https://electrek.co/2019/07/01/tesla-best-selling-brand-norway-electric-cars

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