Charts ( Up to T120 ) Summer 2024 ** READ MOD NOTE IN FIRST POST**
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31-05-2024 6:36pm#1
Mod NoteThis thread is for posting/discussing/analyzing CHARTS in the shorter range timeframe up to T120 hours (next 5 days) for Summer 2024.
If your post does not specifically relate to a chart then it doesn't belong here - Off topic posts will be moved
Thanks
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Spring is now over with so time to move on and focus on the summer short range forcasts.
A ridge of high pressure is moving in from the west to deliver a mostly dry and settled weekend. Temperatures will be close to average to a little above and it should feel relatively pleasant.
High pressure begins to move away from Bank Holiday Monday with a cool north-westerly airflow becoming established through next week.
Next week looks a bit of a battleground between the colder push from the north-west and the high pressure just to our south.
Overall next week will be colder than average with temperatures possibly a degree or two below normal.
A mostly dry week to come with many parts of the country only getting trace amounts of rainfall, however the north-west and Donegal in particular may experience showers at times leading to low rainfall totals there.
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Showers about today ( maybe a few isolated sparks throughout the afternoon ) and more showers in parts tomorrow , better Monday until later when rain spreads over the country into Tuesday as a LP meanders over or close to us and improving Weds, less rain after that it would seem and improving temperatures.
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nothing wrong with being optimistic but let’s face it, it’s a long way back from this, we’re stuck in this for the next few weeks. Not the end of the world though, we’ve had only two good Augusts this century so we’re well used to this crap .. thank god for Ryanair!
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Models showing high rainfall totals in the W especially over mountains, could get over 50mm in 24 hrs in parts.
Windy in coastal areas and breezy to blustery overland.
For comparison to get an average.
Interesting to see the lower temperatures under the rainband on Monday whilst the East gets warm up to around 23C and warming up behind the front from the West after it passes .
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The remnants of Ernesto brushing past us later Weds into early Thurs brining wet and windy weather, the rainfall mostly overnight into the early morning. Fairly windy along the Atlantic coastal areas may warrant a yellow warning for a time especially in the W and NW perhaps, so far rainfall looks moderate to heavy overnight but not showing too much accumulations at the moment.
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Unsettled this week with wet and breezy to windy weather at times as LP becomes dominant, has an Autumnal look to it. Rainfall accumulations rising as the week goes on especially along Atlantic coastal counties. Temperatures only fair some days getting up to the high teens or low 20's in just a few places although humidity might make it feel warmer during some of those frontal passages.
Will have clear spells too after /before frontal passages but showery too more so towards the coasts, should get decent dry breaks further East.
Low chance of an isolated thunderstorm tomorrow more so tomorrow evening/ night along the Atlantic coast perhaps.
The Jet is well fired up.
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I think GFS has upped the wind speeds a bit overnight Weds into Thurs but probably topping 70 km/h or so overland, for now anyway, I think the ECM might follow suite nudging up the wind speeds a bit more. There are some models stronger, ARPEGE stronger still than the ECM and GFS but lower than the UKMO and ICON but not by much, will see. Looks like a deepening wave forming close to Ireland . HARMONIE showing gusting 80 to 85km/h overland, mainly higher ground I would think.
Thurs night into Fri morning looks quite windy now, could easily get up to 80 km/h overland and higher in coastal areas. this is evolving by the run, track not fully certain yet but looks like a deepening depression crossing the country, strongest winds South of the center, could produce very strong winds in the East around early morning commute time as it deepens exiting the E, NE coast . One to watch as the models get to grips with it. Would be very unseasonal strong winds and heavy driving rain in parts.
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