Irish Property Market chat II - *read mod note post #1 before posting*

I'd have no problem giving such people a tent and marching them off to the Wicklow hills. Ultimately "AntiSocial? Homeless!" is the only language certain people understand.

My reading of that would be that, as he said, the demand insulates the market. IE, even in a recession, enough people will keep their jobs and salaries that the demand for housing will still outstrip supply, and house prices will continue to rise, or plateu.

Unfortunately the underlying issue of supply and demand will see no price drops for at least another decade unless there is a change or changes to the following, our housing build strategy, our emigration policy and how our welfare system prioritizes welfare over workers when it comes to housing. Not to mention currently and as long as we have the huge disparity between supply and demand it is cheaper to get a mortgage than to rent. Most people buying a house will have macro issues pusing them to buy or swaying to hold back. For example if you have a kid you will want somewhere near a school or if your paying twice in rent what a mortgage would cost your more likely to buy or if your job is at risk your most likely to not buy. Also remember not only is our domestic population interested in a house, so are companies on a global spectrum as well as individual speculators looking to earn a profit from our overly generous rent price point and our politicians decision to throw billions at these companies to house the poor and migrants. Ireland's rental rate is highly attractive for anyone looking to make money. I called this about 7/8 years ago on here as to why prices would not be dropping for a decade and if anything the situation has got a whole lot worse

Market prices will not be insulated. However there is a significant difference between a price correction due to a recession and a significant price crash like what happened in 2008-12.

Generally the correction is in the order of 10-20% However it also will probably leads to a slowdown in construction especially in higher cost urban areas, which in the medium term will cause a more significant upwards correction as the recession passes.

How would the Government insulate the house building industry?

How are they insulating it?

I'm not trying to be a d*ck, btw, I'm honestly trying to follow your point.

You've not been paying attention

Buyer of first/last resort

here is the data

as for visa being attached to a job….i think that is changing or has changed to avoid exploitation etc…..

Yep...their incessant meddling has us where we are.

Just did a scan of new builds in South Dublin and the prices are mental ! 725k for 3 bed terraced. 650k for 2 bed apartments. God save the country and people chasing new builds

Mental all right when something with an address at Ballymun road is this price 🤔

https://www.myhome.ie/residential/brochure/91-ballymun-road-glasnevin-dublin-9/4825523

Our government will never fail in misdiagnosing a problem

5000 euro tax credit to incentivise under 25's to stay in the country. God forbid we might build a few affordable homes so that these people could live here

Many of these investment funds are using uber like algorithms to maximise rent, guess what they'll throw out if they hear customers are getting a 5000 tax credit

It feels like that no spending in government is considered unless it inflates house prices and rents where most of the 'wealth" in the country lies

Well I never cited it, certain poster were quoting daft rental numbers as there was no availability and comparing them to AirBnB availability. Many of us pointed put that this was due to word of mouth renting which is the way I rented out tge property even 3+ years ago.

In LL leaving they were exiting last year however a bit of stability has come into the market at present. The tax relief and the unlikely hood of a SF led government has taken some of the fear away. However costs are rising and you are limited to rental.rises of 2% or less. The sector is teetering it will not take much to encourage to take there capital profit and exit.

There is less talk of locking LL in and preventing them from selling there property than 18 months ago. Fr Liam Verry's scare mongering 12 months ago has proven unfounded.

Few small LL will evict tenants unless they really have to. However legislation is not balanced at present. Cannot find the case but RTB fined a LL 5k over evicting tenants who were short term letting and not even living in the property

We need to be evolving, we can't live for ever on 2 decisions made in the 80's and 90's and have little to do with governments since the turn of the millenia synomonous with property boom and bust destroying the economy in the process

The recovery was predominantly a product of a restoration of competitiveness following the crash coupled with those 2 decisions plus 0 interest rates

I posted a specific breakdown of house building costs in 2023 that show some very obvious options.

135k of a current 2023 460k new build house in Dublin goes on VAT, margin, finance costs and marketing combined. A state build instead of private sector removes all of that and reduces the cost by 29% by itself down to 325k. Thats the whole savings in cost accounted for with absolute zero decline in labour costs that you apparently think are so completely unavoidable.

70k of that 325k also goes on cost of land for what its worth, which if property is built on already owned state lands (of which theres a lot) would also obviously be possible to be reduced in a lot of cases.

Yep, and the way things are going they're gonna kill the golden goose with their policies, and then tell us how wise they were squirrelling away all those surpluses.