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Russia-Ukraine War (Threadbanned in op)

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,714 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    Yes we do. We are seeing it.

    Nobody drags out a 3 day war that is crippling the economy for 3 years because they are holding back the army for the laugh.

    But sure look Ukraine can't sustain the assault, Russia can deal with them whenever they want, Ukraine are gaining no ground blaa blaa blaa



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,393 ✭✭✭Suckler


    Nicely reworded with the 'bla blaa blaa' for that extra bit of expertise & reality.

    If you read the above I'd already mentioned increased chemical warfare being another distinct possibility.

    But sure look Ukraine can't sustain the assault, Russia can deal with them whenever they want, Ukraine are gaining no ground

    If you really want to get in to it; what to you think Ukraine can do with the narrow corridor they've gained, march it all the way to Moscow? They're still 550 odd miles from the city of Kursk; can they maintain supply lines all that way and keep pushing? Ukraine has already stated that it has no intention of holding Russian territory currently occupied.

    Russia are still making small gradual gains along the south eastern front, what use is 1,000s/kms when they are around Kursk. Pokrovsk and Chasiv Yar are teetering and would be much bigger losses to Ukraine than the small area they've gained in Kursk.

    But tell me more about blaa blaa blaa. Stellar stuff.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,714 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    I don't think they can do much from a military point of view with the land gained. It gives them a bit of extra strike range and new defensive positions but that's about it. So far supply lines are fine and it's quite possible they just stop when that becomes a problem.

    But what it has done very well is gotten Ukraine back on the front pages and has been a huge embarrassment for Putin. Wars are mostly won and lost at home and I have always believed bringing the war to the Russian people was necessary and it certainly seems to be having the desired effect.

    It's not a "narrow corridor" by the way. Corridors are usually long and narrow not semi circular in shape. It's more a small foyer or lobby



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,393 ✭✭✭Suckler


    But what it has done very well is gotten Ukraine back on the front pages and has been a huge embarrassment for Putin

    Which was my original point if you'd bothered to read it. Propaganda is great in the short term for Ukraine; making it stick is the difficult bit. They've gained in Kursk which was a poorly defended area but are potentially about to lose bad in the south.

    Gen. Gerasimov has a target on his back due to Kursk failings, that heaps pressure on him to win in the South and it looks like they'll take two key areas within days unfortunately.

    Wars are mostly won and lost at home and I have always believed bringing the war to the Russian people was necessary and it certainly seems to be having the desired effect.

    Wars are "won and lost" where they are being fought primarily. Sure what goes on 'at home' has some affect but that cuts both ways; Ukrainian propaganda can only do so much for so long. Ukrainian conscripts are now reportedly being rushed in to service with shorter training periods- precisely what Russia did and what we heard would be their ultimate demise, yet here we still are.

    It's not a "narrow corridor" by the way. Corridors are usually long and narrow not semi circular in shape. It's more a small foyer or lobby

    This isn't 'Room to improve'. They've created a narrow, given the length of the front, incursion.

    'Small Foyer'….stick to the blaa blaa blaa.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,696 ✭✭✭✭Say my name


    You are an Irish person and it's sticking in your craw about Ukraine taking Russian land. Now imagine you are Putin who surrounds himself in gold and palaces who prides himself as being the chief lead terrorist in the world who can't even defend his own country from invasion. What craw must that be?

    That's what's it's all about. How much Russian land does he think it's worth sacrificing to have forces in Ukraine and not in Russia. And Ukraine look like they will take another district westwards. Before if there's going to ever be negotiations Ukraine had no strength and were the victims. Now at least they are pushing themselves to be on par with the Russian military at the negotiating table.

    They lost their nuclear weapons when Russia and America took them away. As they were told in doing so they would always be a sovereign country protected by both. So they gave them up.

    Now you are worried if Putin doesn't get his way that Putin will use those Ukrainian nuclear weapons back in Ukraine or the invaded parts of Russia. Ukrainians have been dealing with that threat and death since day one.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,393 ✭✭✭Suckler


    You are an Irish person and it's sticking in your craw about Ukraine taking Russian land.

    Before I deal with the rest show me this part….



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,642 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    Russia appears to finally be moving huge amount of equipment and troops to Kursk.

    All eyes on Kursk. Slava Ukraini.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,393 ✭✭✭Suckler


    Now at least they are pushing themselves to be on par with the Russian military at the negotiating table.

    They aren't on par. They are far away from being anywhere near "on-par".

    We're three weeks in, they've taken a comparatively small foyer pocket in a relatively under protected area whilst at the same time they are about to lose key areas in the south (you'll note above where I said Unfortunatley, just incase you're mistaken it's 'sticking in my craw').We haven't even seen the response from Russia in any meaningful way, yet here you are saying they're all of a sudden "on-par"; you'd think Ukraine have pulled up in Red Square.

    You could also read where I posted in #4821 that "Any success by Ukraine is to be welcomed" …but do go on with the "sticking in my craw" bit.

    Now you are worried if Putin doesn't get his way that Putin will use those Ukrainian nuclear weapons back in Ukraine or the invaded parts of Russia.

    No..I never mentioned nuclear. That's the second time that lazy fall back has been bandied about in less than 24 hours.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,501 ✭✭✭Dubh Geannain




  • Registered Users Posts: 16,257 ✭✭✭✭Grayson


    Depending how far they push, they can hold it for a long time. They're already blowing up bridges far ahead. And with the long range weaponry they have they could stop russia from creating new crossings. If they went in with the idea of capturing land with easily defendable natural boundaries then they could hold it a very long time. And that's 3 things. It makes Putin look bad, makes him divert forces and gives negotiating leverage.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,714 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    A narrow corridor would be going straight out from a narrow point on the Ukrainian border and being surrounded on both sides.

    That is not what they have done. They have extended the border relatively equally along the front.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,393 ✭✭✭Suckler


    along that front only….the entire front is a lot bigger. This is a comparatively narrow front.

    This is a salient point though…anything else?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,574 ✭✭✭jmreire


    The bigger danger from Putin is showing weakness of any description! To let Putin even think that he can control the narrative in any way is to trigger an attack. Failure to respond to Putins aggression in the vain hope that he will not retaliate is a fool's notion. Hit him hard, and keep hitting him, even harder if possible. Destroy his means of attacking Ukraine is the only real way to stop Putin.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,615 ✭✭✭✭Mr. CooL ICE




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,194 ✭✭✭rogber


    It is indeed disgusting, we can only hope Ukraine's air defences are getting better and better and they do seem to be doing some serious damage to Russia's own equipment and capabilities particularly these past few weeks



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,393 ✭✭✭Suckler


    Yes, which was where my original point was going. Ukrainian success is positive but it heaps pressure on Putin to respond.

    Great if they can hit him hard and keep hitting him but it's not as simple as that. Nobody said that they shouldn't retaliate; but is it retaliation if you're losing as much as you've gained relatively simultaneously?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,546 ✭✭✭weisses


    delete



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,546 ✭✭✭weisses


    I can argue its not even a corridor

    The Suwalki gap would be a better example of a corridor.

    Ukraine opened up a nearly 60 km wide and 30 km deep front which will cause a major headache for Russia to regain control of …



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,574 ✭✭✭jmreire


    Nothing compared to what Ukraine will lose if Putin thinks he's winning. He has proved over and over again that any form of weakness triggers the attack mode in him. Putin will continue to carry out murderous attacks in any way,,, its what he does. But if Russians see that he is unable to defend and protect them, never mind they come to the opinion that its Putin himself is the cause of all their problems, then his days are numbered.



  • Registered Users Posts: 12,642 ✭✭✭✭TheValeyard


    All eyes on Kursk. Slava Ukraini.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,546 ✭✭✭weisses


    Its like waiting for Betelgeuse to go supernova 😋



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,393 ✭✭✭Suckler


    He has proved over and over again that any form of weakness triggers the attack mode in him. 

    Exactly; granted he is already attacking in other areas but as another poster put it :

    I do expect Putin to respond the only way he knows how to. Lashing out and destroying civilian infrastructure and accommodation.

    I fully expect to hear horrific reports of hospitals, schools, power generation facilities, etc, to be targeted on a much larger level shortly.

    Because thats just the kind of cnut he is.

    they come to the opinion that its Putin himself is the cause of all their problems, then his days are numbered.

    I don't think we're near that point just yet unfortunately.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,795 ✭✭✭Paddigol


    In terms of Russian troop movement, you'd have to presume that the Kursk operation was intended precisely to draw this response. That it is in fact what the Ukrainians have been waiting for. And that they have detailed plans as to how to respond in turn… it would all have been strategized out before they went over the border into Kursk - what lines they're going to try and reach, where they're going to hold, what kind of resistance they're going to face, what kind of troops and equipment are likely to be sent in by Russian to counter them, from where, on what routes, in what numbers and where they're likely to set up.

    You'd hope that the Ukrainian's are just biding their time to do the real damage now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 752 ✭✭✭thatsdaft


    over last few days Telegraph, ISW and more hilariously Darth Putin (links to both on previous pages) made the observations that Putin wants to hide, dismiss and downplay the scale of disaster that Kursk 2.0 has been, setting deadlines that are months away and pouring in conscripts kept in check by Chechens

    and sure enough like night follows days and flies are attracted to 💩 we have the official line of Kursk being insignificant being replayed here

    and we endup with silly comparisons of square meters per day in back arse of Donbass to dozens of square kilometres per day



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,714 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    "Heaps pressure on Putin to respond"

    How much more heaping does he need. The big tough strong man has just had his country invaded, his people living in displacement camps and drones taking out his infrastructure.

    Why has he not taken the gloves off his supposedly overwhelming military who can "take it back whenever they want"

    Nukes, chemical weapons in Europe, conscripting western Russians. He won't dare do any of those things and if he was willing he would have done it during one of the many many many red line crossings.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,393 ✭✭✭Suckler


    How much more heaping does he need. The big tough strong man has just had his country invaded, his people living in displacement camps and drones taking out his infrastructure.

    That's my point…..he's just had his country invaded…That increases pressure on him.

    "take it back whenever they want"

    I never said this.

    You've also ignore the rest of what I and others have written that may be seen in an unfortunate backlash. And, the bits where Ukraine are losing ground, potentially more important/strategic.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,122 ✭✭✭pcardin




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,714 ✭✭✭✭breezy1985


    It's always mounting "pressure" or red lines with Putin. How much does Ukraine need to invade before the pressure becomes too much. When is he actually going to act on this pressure or red line.

    The answer is he can't. Because his army is already invested to the maximum of its ability. Already at it's limit.

    Unfortunate backlash me arsse. He has already thrown everything at Ukraine.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,266 ✭✭✭✭Sleepy


    The point that territory in Kursk is worth less than territory in the Donbas to Ukraine isn't factually incorrect, it's just missing the wider picture imo.

    The incursion has been a major PR victory for Ukraine. That's easy to dismiss the value of to many of us who think of PR as something involving vacuous bints who drink too much prosecco. In reality, Ukraine is still in this war because it's lead by Volodymyr Zelenskyy who is an absolute master of PR: from his initial video pleading with Russia not to invade and the infamous "I need ammunition, not a ride" quote he's managed to keep Ukraine in the spotlight for 3 years (amidst the Middle East falling to pieces again) and as a result has a coalition of partners in the leaders of wealthy western nations who are funding and arming his country.

    This foray is also making Putin look weak to Russian citizens and the Oligarchs / Siloviki around him. Might it be enough to tempt them into sharpening their knives and taking him out? Time will tell but Putin's death would be exactly the off-ramp Russia needs in order to blame everything on him and retreat from Ukraine in exchange for an easing or dropping of the sanctions that are crippling their economy.

    In the realm of the more "on the ground" practical sphere, the incursion seems to have helped Ukraine to destroy a significant amount of Russia's airforce: we're hearing of destroyed or damaged aircraft and helicopters multiple times a week at the moment alongside the destruction of large caches of the glide bombs that have been doing so much damage to Ukrainian defences and demolition of infrastructure (railways, bridges and ferries) that are critical to Russian military logistics.

    This isn't as simple as taking a chunk of Russia to swap for Ukrainian land in any future negotiations. It's textbook Sun Tzu: hit your enemy where he is weak and least expecting it. Yes, territory in Kursk may become a bargaining chip at some point but that clearly isn't the primary objective of the operation.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,546 ✭✭✭weisses




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