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Cold Case Review of Sophie Tuscan du Plantier murder to proceed. **Threadbans in OP**

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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,507 ✭✭✭tinytobe


    Interesting read, I must say.

    Two things come to mind:

    She wasn't sure when she would leave Ireland, even considered as soon as "today" even though it was 3pm, and she left around 6pm?

    Apparently she didn't book a return ticket? She most likely didn't have internet access to book a flight? How did she really plan to return? Drive to the airport on the off chance?

    Was the red car ever given more consideration? Could be nothing, but worth following up on.



  • Registered Users Posts: 88 ✭✭PolicemanFox


    A "clean hit" would be a contrived accident, where there is no investigation. E.g. a fall from a cliff, drowned in the bath. This is not clean.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,187 ✭✭✭Deeec


    I think I read somewhere that she had bought 2 return tickets. Its still strange though that when she spoke to the Ungerers she still wasnt decided what day to return. It would seem she was reluctant to return to France for whatever reason.



  • Registered Users Posts: 867 ✭✭✭Gussie Scrotch


    Yes, and its odd that she told the Ungerers that she wanted to be alone. Its well documented that she asked several people to accompany her but no one was free or wanted to go.



  • Registered Users Posts: 302 ✭✭head82


    I was of the impression that she had planned to return to France on December 26 (St. Stephens Day). With the intention of hooking up with her husband Daniel in a different part of France.. not their residential address.. hence, the excess luggage she brought with her to Ireland which would not be typical for a 3 or 4 day stay in a holiday home.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,507 ✭✭✭tinytobe


    With a clean hit, I would have considered a gun and a silencer, two shots a few seconds apart, leaving quickly.

    Sure, the murderer could have thrown her off a cliff or drowned her in the bath and cleaned fingerprints, etc.. It would seem the murderer didn't have an awful lot of time.

    Even in the event of a planned murder, time wasn't in big supply and so was planning.

    That what it sounds to me as well. She was reluctant to return to France which is odd. Her failed marriage may have been the issue, but then there was also her son whom she probably wouldn't want to miss for Christmas at least.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,507 ✭✭✭tinytobe


    I've read that story as well. Some interpreted that the excess luggage would be for a longer stay in Ireland.



  • Registered Users Posts: 88 ✭✭PolicemanFox


    I don't think that's odd. She may have told Tomi Ungerer that, maybe it was easier than saying "nobody wanted to come". I wouldn't read much into it.

    The red car was looked into. I believe it was a neighbours.

    I believe she changed her ticket when she arrived or on the phone on Saturday/Sunday. She had a flight coupon for the 26th and a printed itinerary booking for the 24th. If she changed it after she arrived then she must have received a fax machine at the house to get the revised itinerary.

    Either way she had the choice to fly home on either date.



  • Registered Users Posts: 88 ✭✭PolicemanFox


    Did she have excess luggage though? She had one big black duffle bag, a sizeable handbag and some bags with duty free shopping. There were some dresses in the house but did she bring them on that trip?

    Some people don't travel light.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,507 ✭✭✭tinytobe


    Yes, I think that would have worked back then. Just a phone call and chaning a reservation. No internet and no visit to the travel agency. New ticket was then issued upon arrival at the airport at the counter.

    It was suggested by some that she brought excessive luggage with her on that trip, which some interpreted that she intended to stay longer, etc.. But that's all some hypothetic speculation by some. This was never really confirmed, as far as I know.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 162 ✭✭Zola1000


    Just reviewing some of comments on the house being relatively easy to find..whilst I don't disagree I've never been there so I can't say but I live in very remote area and even people who might we consider as local 10 mins or so away often go wrong roads if coming to our house ..I might also consider them to be competent in using maps. I don't consider it plausible for french person certainly to just decide to use map to find house if he was tasked with killing someone. Eitherway someone would at least scan this area for weeks if not months to ensure of there location and getaway at least easiest route to main road...and to factor in % error they could take wrong roads if driving on any day or night. Definitely in D Dwyer's case he comes across very poorly but in instance that it was someone known to Sophie and more local would just seem more accurate as general statement

    Like are we saying even some of them Irish maps would have Irish wording for places and would be easy to follow , I wouldn't have felt that would be case for outsider IMO especially french speaking.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,504 ✭✭✭FishOnABike


    No need for maps at all. If you're heading from Schull to Golden it's only two turns (three if you count the fork between Sophie's and Richardson's) and there's only three houses at the end of the road. Right, left, keep left, first house you meet.



  • Registered Users Posts: 162 ✭✭Zola1000


    Ok. On that basis is it still the thinking an outsider would still not have familiarity with area at least on 5/10 occasions to factor error or issues in getting there...like I'm saying anyone one one off didn't go there of they were not local ..they would still need take trip number of times for reassurance



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,504 ✭✭✭FishOnABike


    Someone who had been there before should have had no problem finding the house.

    Even for someone who had never been there before, one trip to confirm the directions were accurate would be enough. If the source was trusted enough, even that might not be necessary.

    None of this rules out that it could have been a totally random, unplanned killing. The aparent lack of evidence leaves it wide open.



  • Registered Users Posts: 162 ✭✭Zola1000


    Ok. Thanks for that. There is just so much info , and I often think it's local but I can't rule out thinking it might be french angle as well. Both angles carry each as much weight as other. It's minefield in way..but if only a more conclusive piece of DNA would be so vital.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,507 ✭✭✭tinytobe


    I think it's really down to the speicific situation. Even by verbal description Sophie's house can be found with ease.

    Past Toormore, it's only two junctions, two turns basically.

    If one drives through Toormore one gets to Kealfadda Bridge, that's hard to miss, even at night. It's an old style bridge and there is one turn to the left, just before and one is close to water. One turns right and drives straight on the first couple of junctions, past the trees, there is a bit of a turn in the road ( both hard to miss even at night), and at the next junction one turns left (If one drives on and get's to a junction and a sharp bend to the right you're too far and have to go back ) and after the turn to the left, then it's straight on to Sophie's house. And if one needs help with memory, a piece of paper and a pen and one can draw a map himself.

    But in the end, that's not the point.

    The problem is that there are too many loose ends in this case, it'll never be solved.

    Even if some minor new information comes up, it's again more questions and even less answers. It's been now nearly 30 years after the murder, memories fade, people passed away, moved away, etc…

    There is no real strong evidence pinning one specific supspect at the scene of the cirme. There is mostly only hearsay.

    The local police were totally ill-equipped and ill-trained to handle such a case, completely botched up the investigation, coerced individuals, lost evidence, and als tried to pervert the course by giving drugs to transients to achieve their totally wrong theory. It often makes one even wonder if the police were involved in the murder themselves….

    There is not even a clearly established time of death, - which in my opinion any qualified physician could have given, up or down 30 minutes to 1 hour or at least one hour and a half regarless of temperature outside.

    There are only a couple of theories as to possible motives, which we all have, which make more sense to ones or others in likelyhood. But nothing to ever stand up in a court of law and convict beyong reasonable doubt.

    The only thing about Bailey, his personality wasn't liked, and most likely neither was his poetry, as a journalist he most likely had information others didn't get a soon, he was from England, he drank too much, he beat up his partner. But that's all not even close to evidence to convict him for murder.



  • Registered Users Posts: 162 ✭✭Zola1000


    I totally agree and thanks for post. I often dip in and out of this thread and lots of considerable well thought threw plausible scenarios but I do definitely think the time factor now is going render it so much more difficult get nearer anything more constructive. Unless someone still alive who has something knows it to be true..but even now has lot of them witnesses self damaged their statements too...some years after the crime..will hardly ever carry weight now.

    Also just a question, it might be considered stupid by standard here but would DNA profile provide basis for nationality of someone or I guess at some level origin of birth line etc. possibly not.?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,507 ✭✭✭tinytobe


    If you have enough DNA data you can trace ancestry. Lot's of people do that these days. I don't think this was widly available back then.

    But that's also not the real point in this case. The problem we have is that the murder weapon in question, the cavity block could have been touched or handled by anybody prior to the murder, it was in open plain sight. One could easily have used the cavity block to prevent the gate from closing, or touched it in any other ways, even unjured himself and left DNA on there.

    Same with the blood spot from the boot. It wasn't Bailey's that's established? But is it from the time of the murder? Could it have originated at some other time other than the night of the murder? All interesting questions?

    Did the Guards really not collect any significant DNA samples at all? Or were the Gards totally incompetent to collect DNA samples? Or did they collect DNA samples and another Guard with certain influence tampered with the samples? Or did the killer have the time to clean up everything? Or was the killer extremly careful and experienced? We don't know that.

    Or Dwyer's motivation to state that the killer was a local or must have been a local? Finding Kealfadda bridge at night or taking one turn and driving straight on another road, past the trees, past a notivable curve and then take another turn to get to Sophie's isn't that hard. Did Dwyer think the public is so dumb to "buy that statement"?

    Nearly 30 years after the murder? Sophie visited a shop and an uncredible witness saw a man in a dark coat and unshaven face loitiering? The same uncredible witness saw a man in a dark coat at night near Kaelfadda bridge? It all doesn't prove anything in court. Sophie drank tea somewhere, Sophie may have visited a pub, maybe she spoke to a barman, barmen do notice things, but they don't notice all and everything. Could Sophie have spoken with someobody the barman didn't notice, even outside of the bar? Did she meet Karl Heinz Wollney? Did he make a pass at her and the barman or anybody else didn't notice? Quite possible but all very difficult matters to verify today, all hearsay. Incidentally one barman passed away by now as well.

    I think, either a miracle happens, or there is a death bed confession.



  • Registered Users Posts: 88 ✭✭PolicemanFox


    Reading back over this whole thread, the argument of was it hard/easy to find has been debated to death. It is very remote. In 1996 it was unquestionably hard to find even with a map. All the same I think the point is moot. It was either a local who knew how to get there, or a foreigner who was determined enough find it and take a few wrong turns on the way. It is a very prominent house when you find it being painted white.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 207 ✭✭jesuisjuste


    Agree with this, I think overall it's a moot point as the circumstances are unique.

    However, if someone decided that they were going to send a hitman to kill Sophie, the remoteness of the location would be a benefit, not a hinderance. Less witnesses nearby, less likelihood someone would come across the scene, easier to get away etc. All it takes is a little bit of extra planning to work out the route.

    Personally I think this is very unlikely however.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 867 ✭✭✭Gussie Scrotch


    Quite right.

    It was rather remote but any compos mentis, determined individual would find it in a short time. As you have pointed out, its, in any case, a moot point. In now way does it exlude all "non locals"

    For me, motive is the key.

    I don't see a sexual element in any of the known facts. That doesn't rule it out completely, of course, but renders it very unlikely.

    I also rule out a completely random, motiveless, stranger attack. They are relatively rare, even rarer in such rural, remote areas and Sophie went to the gate voluntarilary - the boots tell me that.

    I see two likely, plausible motives.

    1. Money - in which case there was only one suspect

    2. A confrontation that started as a relatively minor row and escalated out of control.



  • Registered Users Posts: 162 ✭✭Zola1000


    This is more where I'm trying to go with it .whilst its mute I understand what your saying ..but the pre planning element in any case. was flights checked for Bruno or similar people months or weeks in advance. I know it's random..but just trying see if someone had to plan anything in some way..they would have had rent car etc etc if not local. I'm sure all these things were considered but Bruno's movements or similar french nationals in weeks before for example. Maybe this thinking way over the top searching individuals french nationals renting cars around this time. I guess by now these records are long gone or obsolete.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,413 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    But if it was used as a justification for the investigation to focus on a 'local', the outcome of that wrong decision had an impact. It didn't necessarily have to be a local.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users Posts: 88 ✭✭PolicemanFox


    Generally forensically gathered DNA does not have enough information to trace ancestry. Typically forensic DNA matching uses a couple of dozens of markers (STRS) and this is fine for matching and you can even detect siblings, parents or offspring because they have a 50% match but beyond that you have nothing.

    Back in 1996 the DNA tech available to the Gardai was extremely limited. It was in use. A murderer was found and convicted using DNA in 1996. Marilyn Rynn was raped and murdered on her way from a Christmas Party in Dublin in 1995. Her body was dumped in briars just like Sophies and was found 9 days later. The Gardai put out a call for a man with scratches but came up blank. However they had a semen sample which is stuffed with DNA. They took over 350 blood samples and got a match. The killer, a David Lawler, a married father of two. He had also done internet searches for how long DNA could survive outside.

    But in Sophies case the Gardai only had blood swabs. They sent them to Northern Ireland and they used 4 markers to test them against Sophie and Ian Bailey. That's all. They found bloodstained clothes in Ian Bailey's house and I reckon the Gardai must have been pretty excited. But Bailey was a bit of a slob, and he had dirty clothes. It was his own blood from rugby games in the past and other minor accidents.

    For the small quantities of blood on the door, on the gate, on the concrete block, on Sophie's boots and briars, they used blood group testing, not DNA. Contact blood tests for DNA were not available.

    Blood grouping has multiple markers, it is not as good as DNA, but it can rule people out. It all came back as a positive match for the victim, and a negative match for Bailey. All except the gate. On the gate the scientist found only one blood group marker and it was a common one, which both Bailey and Sophie had. The back door was tested again in 2002 and a partial match to Sophie was found.

    No DNA testing was ever performed on the gate, or if there was, it was never shared with the French. So nobody can say who the blood on the gate belonged to. And then they lost it, or destroyed it, giving the excuse that it had "no evidential value". Given that the blood marks were never identified this excuse is implausible, to say the least.

    The French used contact DNA on the block, clothes, nail scrapings, small stone, etc and got good profiles for the victim and one profile for an unknown male who doesn't match Bailey or any of Sophie's nearest relatives. This profile has 13 markers, which is not enough for ancestry matching even if the Garda had a database, which they do not, because profiles must be deleted after 6 months due to data protection. The profile from her boot is not from blood. This is important. It was from a "whitish trace at the base of the laces." The blood drop itself was not tested, maybe they missed it.

    So the Gardai did gather DNA & blood samples, but there was so much blood it was probably difficult to know where to sample to find the killer and not jhust. The fact that the gate was never preserved and tested with more sensitive techniques is scandalous.

    Now Dwyer.

    Dwyer was a very competent policeman & detective. I don't think he was corrupt. However, I think its clear he had a "hands off" approach to the investigation which let certain detectives under him to do extraordinarily stupid things. We can't just blame Dwyer for the way it was botched. Superintendent J.P. Twomey should never have allowed Sophie's body to be left on the lane overnight. Noel Smith said stupid things to the press.

    Marie Farrell saw a man outside her shop in a black coat with sallow skin, short hair & a black beret. In her initial statement she said he was 5'10". Years later she said he was 5'8" and the Gardai said he would round it up.

    Her landlord Dan Griffin also saw a man wearing a long black coat almost down to his ankle and wearing a black beret.

    So I think we can trust Marie Farrell's first statement at least.

    There is no evidence Sophie met Wollny, none that I have seen.

    I don't trust death-bed confessions. Famous cases attract lots of them.



  • Registered Users Posts: 88 ✭✭PolicemanFox


    The Gardai were very limited as to what investigation they could do in France. They weren't allowed to simply roam around France and ask people questions. Everything had to be done via "Letters Rogatory", asking the French to do the investigation for them. Lots of things the Gardai asked for were never gotten. The Gardai asked French witnesses to voluntarily travel to Ireland and some did.

    They checked Bruno Carbonnet extensively. He was arrested and interviewed over 2 days. They didn't get his alibis until mid January.

    Famously they asked to interview Pierre Louis and that was never arranged, leaving him to wonder why they didn't. The Gardai asked for various phone records from France and didn't get them, presumably because it is not so easy to gather such information without a warrant, and a warrant needs a judge etc.

    Maybe things would go more smoothly today.

    The Gardai did ask for flight passenger lists, but probably only for the flight she was on. I don't think they checked all the flights to/from Ireland at the time, ferry manifests or anything like that.

    Bailey was not the only suspect. They arrested a local farmer (the gas-can man on a pretext of larceny) in mid January. He might have been top suspect at the time. They interviewed Karl Wollny on January 11. They interviewed a bunch of other weirdos and perverts & ex-cons in the wider area.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,507 ✭✭✭tinytobe


    Thanks for that insight. I suspected that one would have to collect enough DNA to get something they could work with. By the sounds of it the Guards were also limited in getting information from France, phone records, possible financial records?

    Regarding Dwyer, I don't know if it's a "hands off approach" or a "I don't care approach"? After all, it was the only murder in West Cork by many decades? And Dwyer doesn't take an interest? It would sound a bit strange to me.

    Regarding the man with the in a black coat with sallow skin, short hair and a black beret? Was that the man they visited in Paris during the cold case investigation? How could they trace him down by just this description? Possibly looking for a man on the off chance among Daniel's contacts/friends? There are probably too many men fitting such a profile, plus anybody could put on a black coat and a black beret. And airlines don't keep records that far back?

    And what about Martin Graham? I would guess giving drugs to transients to get close to Bailey not having much on Bailey is certainly not "usual procedure" nor would Dwyer have ordered that?

    I'd rather say, in absence of real evidence and DNA connecting murderer to victim, motive is key, or somewhat key, as it could lead you at least into an certain direction.

    Following the money would be one big motive. And then there is drugs as a motive, - as far as we know there was a bit or more than a bit around in the area.

    The way the victim was beaten with the cavity block would lead to the confrontation, unplanned, spur of the moment, situation getting out of control theory.

    It was basically a cul de sac / dead end and only 3 houses, only one way in, same way out. Nobody coming and going, only to visit the residents or the residents/owners themselves. Alfie and Shirley's house doesn't seem to have a clear view of the murder site, ( or at least where the body was found). I think the Richardsons would have been in clear view of the murder site. Maybe the killer knew they were not staying at their house.



  • Registered Users Posts: 88 ✭✭PolicemanFox


    I think Dwyer cared, I think everyone cared. But he or somebody higher up should have kept a much tighter rein on what the detectives did. His approach gave freedom to the detectives and just prioritizing results at any means. Letting the main suspect and the main witness meet was plain stupid. Using Martin Graham was stupid. I don't know if Dwyer knew this was going on, and if he did, he should have shut it down. Also Dwyer wasn't leading from the beginning. He is the focus because he appears in the podcasts and documentaries, but there is a whole hierarchy in place, and they let the detectives do stupid stuff.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,272 ✭✭✭nc6000


    I've seen similar directions on here before and it doesn't sound like finding the house would be difficult at all. I don't get the claim that only a local could find it.



  • Registered Users Posts: 118 ✭✭Evergreen_7


    I’ve spoken several times on this thread about DNA and been largely ignored but I’ll try again.

    You cannot just use existing dna they tested to generate familial samples, it’s an entirely different process and you need a new dna sample from the evidence. This is where preservation comes in.

    there’s only certain labs that do this familial testing, and although uk/irish labs can possibly, with a new sample, determine ethnicity etc, using dna results for genetic genealogy to find to whom it belongs is not legally allowed here yet. There’s also only certain websites that are approved for use by law enforcement such as GEDmatch where it used (USA mainly)



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,507 ✭✭✭tinytobe


    The claim that only a local could find it, is a very very lame excuse. Maybe some of the simple minded folks would have believed it, I personally didn't believe it for a second. Also upon closer examination in a courtroom, it would have stood out by miles.

    Heading west out of Toormore, it's only two turns and both turns are just after something easily and distinctly noticable or easily describable. An old bridge and water on both sides of the road, and a small forrest and a significant noticable bend in the road are both hard to miss. It's as simple as that.

    Yes the whole area is rural, the countryside looks romantic, a bit wild, - next stop North America feeling, but one doesn't get lost.

    Incidentally all these peninsulas in the South West of Ireland are rather easy to navigate and get around. Peninsulas do have a habit of having a limited amount of roads leading in and out, to and from.

    Dwyer should have said, that "we are investigating in all directions", or "if he has evidence that it was a local" then he would have to name what precise evidence would point to a local and how he came up with the opinion. ( other than a house in the countryside) The latter Dwyer should never have said to Bailey at that stage of the investigation if he considered Bailey as suspect. It basically killed the conversation, implying it could have been Bailey rather than anybody else…. Bailey certainly knew where he was with Dwyer at that point but Dwyer and the police still had nothing in terms of real evidence.



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