USA 2024 presidential election

I guess Trump kind of needs the political connection as it gives him his best shot at avoiding most of his legal woes

On a scary note IMHO one thing is certain if he loses and that is he will refuse to accept the result and the aftermath will be January 6th on steroids in the sense we will likely see significant violence.

He has a good chance of winning in November, but I would not put money on him finishing the full term.

I have looked at some of the stuff from 2016 campaign and he has really aged, he was much energetic back then and now that spark is clearly not their .

Its not a surprise though, he is near 80, supposedly only sleeps a few hours a night and has been under a lot of stress over the last years as the ALL CAP tweets at 6am would indicate.😗

Father time remains undefeated.

Speculating about who will be the MAGA successor is very tough, JD Vance would obviously have a huge start if Trump was not able to finish his 4 year term.

The Dems need to be pushing that. Just because Donny doesn't think JDV matters, there's still a chance that JDV will finish that 4 year term.

I think they need someone with charm and smarts.

Is it Rubio? Can he attract the MAGA voters that would never publicly say they're racist?

Brian Kemp? He's 60 now. Might have missed the boat to be a two termer.

Vivek is never, ever going to happen.

Youngkin? 57? I dunno, seems a bit weedy.

Nikki Haley? I think any Dem is going to wipe the floor with her spinelessness. She probably had the best chance for 28, but "Reek"ed it.

DeSantis, Scott and Cruz all seem so obsequious to Trump, that they might stand a chance, but they don't strike me as smart or charming, and I can't see them trying to reach the middle ground to win them over.

I think that's it. All the front runners seem incredibly inflexible, like they can't change positions on anything as it shows weakness. In politics, you have to be able to negotiate but not to the extent you give away your principles. I don't think I can see any of the above reaching that bar. Someone like Adam Kinzinger (48) once the curse of MAGA is broken, could be a future President. He has time on his side.

Kemp signed in a very hardline abortion ban, it made sense at the time as he needed to keep the God Squad happy but its ruined any chances he has nationally. He's also got a charm which is very Georgian but won't translate outside that state.

Rubio should have been the VP pick this time round, he and Trump have became pally but from all accounts the residency rule of both been from Florida was something they just couldn't overcome which is a shame from their POV because this election would be in Trump's pocket if he had went with him.

Haley may come back, but she could wait it out because at 52 in America time is most certainly on her side which is a crazy thing to type but lol.

RDS had 250 million to play with when he ran for pres and absolutely bombed, donor's wont want to be burned like that again on someone who from all accounts is quite abrasive and has very little charisma.

Vivek fits the mold of the successor to Trump, some wealthy grifter outside politics who can spin a yarn about been a threat to the establishment etc,,,it won't be Vivek though because he is to annoying.

As expected RFK is dropping out and supporting Trump.

He admits that he reached out to Harris as well in order to come to an agreement with her (i.e. tap her up for a job) but she wouldn't talk to him.

I wonder if Trump promised him a job. Good luck making sure he keeps that promise if he has.

Hmm who would be VP in that scenario though. Seems risky.

My understanding is he was offered a cabinet position if he withdrew and endorsed comrade Trump which is what he has done. Essentially a bribe which is about right for this whack job.

I don't think it does. I think I heard on a podcast that there's a clause for a VP to become president in case they have to and still be able to be elected to two terms. The first "replacement" term doesn't count unless it's over a certain amount of days, iirc.

No it wouldn't be. Johnson was President much longer than Harris would be after suceeding from being VP. There was no mpediment to him running for President in '68. He did not run because of low popularity and health reasons

Name me a Trump policy

It's not the '80s. Reagan and Bush would be run out of the GQP.

Why though?

If Harris does win in November then there's no rush to get her into the Oval Office. No legislation can go through in the lame duck session since neither party has total control. Trump can do nothing except write angry screeds from Mar-A-Lago on his failing social media site.

If this is something about Jan avoiding another 6th then there are 2 things there:

1. Harris will still need to go through that legislative process in order to be president in Jan 2025 so this idea wouldn't eliminate that process from needing to occur
2. The Federal government isn't going to be caught napping a second time (especially when Trump isn't President effectively sabotaging their response)

Biden has already had to give up his shot at going for a second term.

Let him go out some bit of dignity.

None tgat I can see, I actually think it would be a disadvantage

There's an argument about the upcoming debate rules in relation to whether mics should be muted when it's the other person's time to speak. Trump's team want them muted!

I have some bad news for you. Trump is the symptom, not the cause.

Even if Harris wins it'll be the same nonsense from the Republicans. It's going to be the same bad faith nonsense about whatever the latest culture war is. The root cause is a media environment that peddles in divisive bullsh1t that is turbo charged by social media.

Due to the USA's farcical voting system most Republicans in the House and Senate do not have competitive general elections to worry about. Instead their main worry is losing a primary. In almost all cases, when they do lose a primary, it's to a challenger who is even more right-wing than they are. As such the incentive structures are set up so that the average Republican becomes more extreme rather than more moderate.

The more moderate Republicans are in swing districts and swing states but they are in the minority within their own party.

The only way for all this to change is for Republican primary voters to favour more moderate candidates. However they typically vote for whoever throws them the most red meat because their brains have been pickled by following the likes of catturd on twitter and getting their news from the Daily Wire and Breitbart.

From supporting Sanders in 2016 to Trump in 2024 is quite the swing