Russia-Ukraine War (Threadbanned in op)

Would be fantastic if true, but I suspect rather than the rail system being on the brink of collapse, it’s more likely on the brink of serious curtailment.
The Soviets left the Russians a very dense network of rail lines, and if they can’t maintain them anymore, I kind of expect them to pull a “Beeching Report” and pull a load of low traffic lines to cannibalise the parts and equipment on them. I imagine them doing their damnedest to keep a couple of critical trunklines going while sacrificing the rest.

The problem with that however is that if the Russians are reduced to a handful of operating lines, Ukraine will have a much easier time crippling their logistics. One or two junctions destroyed, and a whole arm of the Russian network might get cut off in this situation.

The slow degradation does indeed seem to be the more accurate scenario.

From last year:

the number of delayed or suspended trains due to a lack of train personnel amounted to around 3,700 in 2023. Market players identified this problem as ‘extremely significant’, even if the number pales in comparison to the number of trains affected by maintenance issues. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, approximately half a million men were taken out of the economy for military duty, a number that could increase soon.

[…]

Most of the problems faced by RZD are concentrated in the Far East region of the country. Over 2 million tonnes of goods were not transported in that area due to a lack of spare parts and a shortage of highly qualified staff in servicing companies in 2023. […]

The locomotive deficit is aggravated by the reorientation of Russia’s exports to the East following Western sanctions. Exporting eastward requires goods to travel much larger distances, requiring more rolling stock to maintain freight volumes. 

That was then, this is now:

Russian Railways (RZD) says it can no longer accept freight trains coming in from Belarus in the direction of the Smolensk and Kursk regions.RZD notified its Belarusian counterparts about the infrastructure overload, according to BelZhD. Russian Railways put the measure in place on 12 August with no end date mentioned, which likely means Moscow itself does not [know] when it can resolve the issues.

[…]

BelZhD says that Russia used a significant part of the Moscow Railway locomotive fleet to move its military to Kursk, as soldiers are even taken from the country’s most remote regions. However, there are now many abandoned trains waiting to be taken elsewhere. A shortage of locomotives and drivers hampers RZD’s ability to do so.

In other words, you can't have your cake and eat it! Rounding up trained engineers and locomotive drivers and shipping them off for sacrifice in Donetsk and Luhansk means there's no-one available to keep your trains running efficiently. Extend that to airlines and other national infrastructure and it's that inefficiency that will eventually cripple the economy; sanctions (and fear of sanctions) are preventing market forces from resolving the problem in traditional ways (c.f. Mongolia's decision to say "no" to the new oil pipeline to China).

Yup , and that line has some large viaducts along it's route , viaducts within atacms range.. so ... If it's still operational, its because Ukraine wants it still operational

I'm imagining that , with an airburst cluster munition full of little land mines , flying up the runway ,at the start of the next drone attack , or scattering a thick line of those horrible incendiary munitions over a long line of su-34s before they have time to flee.

Talking out of both sides of his mouth!

When you think about how many Ukrainians have and still are being killed by Russians, a nuclear attack by Putin which in turn would trigger such massive retaliation against him, that it would 100% destroy his ability to wage war, effectively stopping the war and the killing of Ukrainians and the destruction of Ukraine infrastructure.

Seeing as the Russians have opted for WW1-style trench warfare and pointless "over the top" full-frontal infantry assaults, perhaps the Ukrainians have decided to try the even older-style mediaeval siege warfare, with the advantage of being able to cut off all useful supply lines from behind the occupied territories, without having to send any troops around the back?

This new rocket-drone is surely going to put the wind up the Russian commanders. It's one less reason to worry about who gets elected to the White House, and one more reason to move yet more valuable assets yet further away from the frontline. There must surely come a point where the supply lines on the Russian side are so long, thin and congested that Ukraine will be able to target so frequently that the occupied territories will simply run out of sufficient men and materials to mount an effective defense.

Ah one of our Vatniks returns. You've left us in the dark for a while now. Really rude of you.

I wouldnt worry ,its always darkest before the Don

The kremlin says a lot of things. They also said that they would honour the Budapest agreement and that they wouldn't invade Ukraine.

My rule of thumb is that whatever the Russians say, the opposite is true.