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Vice President Kamala Harris vs Donald Trump 2024

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,142 ✭✭✭✭briany


    Your logic doesn't really hold up. Biden was the most popular Democratic nominee of both 2020 and 2024, yet his polling numbers had been lagging sorely behind Trump in every swing state. When Harris entered the race, replacing Biden, her polling is neck and neck with Trump, if not slightly ahead. If your logic held, she should be even further behind than Biden was, but this is not the case.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,929 ✭✭✭LambshankRedemption


    Its not that the Dems "allowed" Biden stay in. They made Biden the nomination in 2020, he became president and leader of the Democratic party. Only he can decide to not run if he doesn't want to. At the start of the campaign he was adamant he was going to run and then changed his mind. He wasn't pushed.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 215 ✭✭Yvonne007


    I think people are just relieved that they are no longer dealing with the Weekend at Bernie's scenario that they had been presented with. Anyone would have been received well. I don't think it's down to people actually liking Harris.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,996 ✭✭✭Flaneur OBrien


    Please don't take this the wrong way. I am not back seat modding, or attacking you, or anything of the sort. I respect you as a poster. As I said, if you were running vs Trump, you'd have my vote. Now, look at these:

    a person who was seen as a joke VP just a few months ago

    Who said this? I don't remember anyone a few months saying that she was "a joke VP a few months ago". If, as I think you do, want Trump to not win because he would be objectively terrible, what is this post adding to that battle? This is the both-sidism I was pointing out.

    If you believe Trump is the worst candidate, why attack people you describe as "her fanboys". Personally, I don't think Harris is the best person that the Democrats have, but she's what's running. I haven't seen anyone here betting their house on a Harris victory. If it does happen, there will be wild celebrations, but most of all, deep breaths of relief.

    Not strange at all except for the fact many posters here are seeing her through rose tinted glasses and aren’t at all interested in the slightest criticism of her- which makes discussion pointless with them.

    If the criticism is fair, fine. But it's usually spurious nonsense, like (no offence here) that she was seen as joke VP. Or that her opinion polls had an approval rating at 16%. Yet, according to 538, the lowest her approval rating was on March 7th, 2024 where it was 35.9% (https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/approval/kamala-harris/)

    As an aside, she currently holds a net unfavourability of +1.7%, compared to Trumps unfavourability of +9.6%.

    Yes she has come a long way- granted- but post the convention last week she didn’t increase her lead- that’s concerning

    If you had been paying attention, most people following the election were not expecting a bump. That usually happens because a VP is announced at conventions. As we knew who her VP was ahead of time, that didn't happen, as expected. Harris announced Walz on August 6th. She was +1.7% in the national polls, then a week later on August 13th, she was +2.7%, a small bump, but a bump regardless.

    There are posters here who just can’t have a discussion around the realities of this election - in their rose tinted minds, it’s simply good vs evil- it’s not at all that simple but maybe that’s all their brains can deal with - it’s the American people who will decide this election and they’re struggling with Harris right now- if polls remained unchanged since last week, what will happen come the televised debate? Will people still remain apathetic?

    Lol. Hands up, I am one of those. It really is a good vs evil competition this cycle, with the shadow of Project 2025 over us and the shennanigans that are already happening in Georgia about the count. It's a little poor form to say "maybe that's all their brains can handle".

    Are the American people really "struggling" with Harris right now? She currently has an approval rating of 41.8%, a favourability rating of 45.7% and Trump has a favourability rating of 43%. Seems like everybody in the race must be "struggling" with the American People in that case!

    What will happen after the televised debate? Who knows? Really depends on the performance of the two candidates. On the 27th June, (the day before the debate) Trump was polling at +0.1 (41% vs 39.9&) a week later, Trump was polling at +2.3%. We all know just how bad Biden was, I can't see either Harris or Trump being that poor at the debate, but I would expect the winner to get a bump of a percent or so in the national polls, unless one of them crashes and could see another 2 percent bump…

    TLDR: Honestly not attacking you, I enjoy your posts, but sometimes you tend to lean towards "both-sidism" for the sake of it, and the energy could be expended better elsewhere, especially if you would like Trump to lose, but not necessarily want Harris to win.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 215 ✭✭Yvonne007


    If you really think that, then thats fine.

    I think most reasonable people would at least admit that senior people in the party pretty much made his position untenable. I find it unfathomable to think that people honestly believe he came to the decision himself.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,454 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    I think an awful lot of Trump's support is based on sunk cost fallacy.

    People have invested so much of their time and themselves into this MAGA cult that they find it impossible to back away from it now and will spend an inordinate amount of effort trying to justify their support, even though the man and the movement they are giving their X to is utterly deplorable, demonstrably so in the case of its leader.

    Some people have become so fixated with Trump and his MAGA cult that extricating oneself from it requires a herculean mental effort for them and a lot of them just aren't capable of it. So, instead they'll take refuge in excuses, slogans, conspiracy beliefs and the dubious comfort of the "knowledge" that the dear leader will see them through.

    Despite all the evidence to the contrary.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,851 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    As I pointed out yesterday , she has dramatically approved her "favourability" score over the last 4/5 weeks.

    Prior to Biden dropping out she had a net disapproval rating of ~16% alongside Bidens net disapproval of 18%.

    Today, her disapproval rating is down to 1.6% and on current trend she'll flip into net approval fairly soon - And that's among ALL voters not just Democrats. Bidens is still 18%

    Trump has remained in and around 9/10% net disapproval rating for about as far back as the ratings go. He didn't get any bump for the nomination or for the failed assassination attempt because everyone knows exactly who and what he is.

    Now that Harris is out front and centre it would seem that people are liking what they see so far.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 215 ✭✭Yvonne007


    I disagree.

    I would say it is more of a case that people see her as a less bad option when faced with what they had.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,135 ✭✭✭✭Dohnjoe


    One interesting observation from reading this thread from the last 2 months (and others like it over the years) - few posters commit to stating they support Trump, when it's quite obvious they do indeed support him.

    It's almost like they know the defense of his actions are difficult, so instead they carefully portray themselves as "on the fence" or an objective observer.

    Thirty years of following political debates and I've rarely seen people shy away so much from expressing support for a candidate they quite clearly support. Likewise so frequently play the victim card when exposed.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,454 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    She's popular now.

    That must get right up your nose. 😉



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,267 ✭✭✭eightieschewbaccy


    I've got a fair few US relatives, my uncle who is in his early 80s was not a fan of Harris's. However since she's started her run, he's actually grown to like her which surprised me tbh. She comes across as intelligent and their handling of Trump is frankly entertaining for a lot of people. Then they've got a VP pick that balances things out perfectly. They both come across as genuine leadership versus a coked up asshole.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 215 ✭✭Yvonne007


    Why would it get up my nose?

    That's fair. I have a relative in Connecticut who feels similar, really didn't like Kamala at the start but was so relieved that it wasn't Biden, has grown to like her more.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators, Social & Fun Moderators Posts: 15,851 Mod ✭✭✭✭Quin_Dub


    So you agree with the point I made (when you said you didn't) that now that people are getting to know her , they like her more.

    When they knew very little about her or what they knew was based on her primary campaign 4 years ago people weren't too impressed.

    Now though, she has stepped into the light and it would seem the reaction for most is - "You know what , she's not bad at all..Better than Trump obviously , but also has none of the concerns that existed about Biden , I can vote for her"

    How is that some bad thing or an "it's only because they have no other choice"?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,996 ✭✭✭Flaneur OBrien


    I have no idea where this idea that she was incredibly unpopular comes from. None of the favourabilty or approval polls back it up.

    She's the nominee because her president backed out and supported her to be President over him.

    The last campaign run where she pulled out before a vote was cast? Maybe you need more up to date information.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,454 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    Why would it get up my nose?

    From your posting here, you seem to have clearly set yourself against her, claiming she is "unpopular", despite evidence to the contrary.

    So, here, lay your cards on the table. Who would you like to see win in November?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,414 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison


    “sometimes you lean toward “both-sidism”


    What I do is comment on both candidates yes - I’ve never stated otherwise - I’m mostly of praise for Harris but not always and I’m mostly looking for ways for her to gain more ground - but that doesn’t preclude me from analysing and commenting on Trumps strategy - with these threads, you’re either with Harris 100% or you’re not- the slightest criticism of Harris just leads to paranoia that there’s a Trump supporter in the house 🤪

    I’m clearly not a Trump “fan” by any shape or form but if I see a “clever” , weather underhanded or otherwise, move by Trump that boosts his rating, I’ll certainly call it out - this is going to be a dirty match - Trump will be ruthless but let’s see just how ruthless and then how Harris handles it.

    As for Harris I’ve already stated she’s done very well considering how she was perceived - she certainly wasn’t the “ideal” candidate if Democrats could have chosen someone - I believe she would have struggled to get the nomination -the fact that money rolled in as soon as Biden supported her and retired from the race, she was certainly the only logical choice given the time constraints- and it’s certainly worked so far.

    But she’s not over the line yet- and I will criticise her, especially come the televised debate, if I feel she’s wrong stepped and given Trump an advantage - and I won’t give a damn about how my views might irk the Harris fans who won’t have a bad word said about her- November will reveal all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,611 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    As for Harris I’ve already stated she’s done very well considering how she was perceived - she certainly wasn’t the “ideal” candidate if Democrats could have chosen someone - I believe she would have struggled to get the nomination -the fact that money rolled in as soon as Biden supported her and retired from the race, she was certainly the only logical choice given the time constraints- and it’s certainly worked so far.

    I don't. Look at previous Democratic primaries, a VP has won them when they have stood, it is a huge advantage.

    Where are these ideal candidates… a lot of the other names being thrown around seemed to be distancing themselves even from a VP slot this time round.

    And just because e.g. someone like Harris or Walz impressed once they are in place, doesn't mean that if they were competing in Presidential nominations they would stand out from the crowd.

    Not having primaries saved the Democrats lots of money, time and effort - and a fractious nomination process played out in the media spotlight can backfire too. This has played out very well for Harris given the short cycles of the current media reporting.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,454 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    with these threads, you’re either with Harris 100% or you’re not

    Here's the rub. You can't be slightly for one candidate and slightly for the other in US politics. You're either all in or you're not in a two horse race. By virtue of the fact that you prefer one candidate over another, you are de facto 100% behind that candidate.

    There's also this. The vast majority of people posting here in favour of a Democrat win is because they are the lesser of two evils. Not because they are in lockstep with them or they agree with every single aspect of that political organisation. And, into the bargain, when the alternative is a man like Donald Trump, his MAGA cult and their proposed Project 2025, the ONLY sensible option left is Harris and the Democratic Party.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,414 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison


    My point was simply, had Biden bowed out 6 months ago, would Harris have won the nomination through the normal Democratic nomination election process? I don’t believe she would have.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 84,127 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    It’s a meaningless counterfactual. We have the race we have now.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 31,611 ✭✭✭✭odyssey06


    I believe she would have.

    That's how it has played out the several times before when there's a VP in the Democratic primaries.

    I don't see any of the other names that were bandied about as being so 'ideal' they'd have overcome that.
    She's have had a massive head start by virtue of being VP and the profile that gives her with Democratic base and donors.

    "To follow knowledge like a sinking star..." (Tennyson's Ulysses)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,861 ✭✭✭Shoog


    I think you are extrapolating from a poor information base - she was less popular than the winning candidates last round - but that is all that can be said. She was impressive enough for Biden to pick her as his VP candidate which none of the others managed. She has been workmanlike in her capacity as VP - which is all that most VP ever manage to achieve in that role.

    I don't see your conclusion been remotely valid.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,414 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison


    But I’m not “in US politics” - I’m on an Irish discussion board 😀

    And if I feel Harris has mis-stepped I’ll call it out- and if feel Trump has played a masterstroke (which is very unlikely) I’ll also call that out.

    In 2016 I was pretty much convinced that Trump would win - many of my friends and colleagues looked at me as if I had 2 heads.
    So I’m well used to abuse. That doesn’t mean I “wanted” Trump to win-a totally different thing altogether.

    In 2024, Harris has done well but there are obstacles to still navigate - but I don’t underestimate Trump - hence I’m interested in his strategy, what he says, who he says it to etc People ignored him on Irish commentary sites for a long time in 2016 and wrote him off as a joke- well he may well have been a joke but he won.

    Is it “better” to have Harris as president over Trump?
    I would imagine so - As an outsider I’d say ask the undecided though because they’re the ones most likely to influence the outcome - why they’re undecided baffles me given the choices so I’d certainly be interested in discussing what’s going on in their minds.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 40,386 ✭✭✭✭Boggles




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,414 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison


    I was asked a question and I answered it but you insist on getting a dig in regardless -you’re badgering me .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 84,127 ✭✭✭✭Overheal


    I'm just replying to an argument you presented in an open thread, that isn't badgering, or 'getting a dig in.'



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,861 ✭✭✭Shoog


    Thats funny, she is wildly popular across the important demographics which will ultimately decide the race. She's not popular with white middle aged men - but who cares.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,454 ✭✭✭✭Tony EH


    But I’m not “in US politics” - I’m on an Irish discussion board

    Nobody said you were "in US politics".

    In 2024, Harris has done well but there are obstacles to still navigate - but I don’t underestimate Trump

    I don't think anyone here has said anything different.

    Is it “better” to have Harris as president over Trump?
    I would imagine so - As an outsider I’d say ask the undecided though because they’re the ones most likely to influence the outcome - why they’re undecided baffles me given the choices so I’d certainly be interested in discussing what’s going on in their minds.

    I would, too, ask these "undecideds" what it is that makes them undecided. Because when the clear choice is obvious, and in the case of the current US political race, the choice is VERY clear, any indecision becomes quite a dubious position.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,414 ✭✭✭Oscar_Madison


    Who knows but she would have had to campaign like all the other candidates - 2020 didn’t see her doing well at that - who knows what candidate may have emerged, whether the thinking of the party was to move away from Biden related people or reinforce his style of politics - could a new Bill Clinton have emerged? Who knows and we won’t now anyway.



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