Russia-Ukraine War

Doesn't sound like the Ukrainians think they can hold it or that Kursk is going to balance it out:

“The situation is extremely difficult,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky conceded on Wednesday.

“If we lose Pokrovsk,” military expert Mykhaylo Zhyrokhov warned, “the entire front line will crumble."

It was a big gamble to do. It might of worked if Putin had of made kursk a priority and transferred troops from Pokrovsk. But he hasn't. I say Russian high command for once are happy in the sense OK it's bad Ukraine took over a part of Russian territory but it's some of Ukraines finest troops doing this. There not in eastern Ukraine where were advancing so leave them where they are in kursk and we will deal with them in due time while we take the territory the donbass region. It's more Ukraine in kursk are digging in but I'm sure there loosing forces from drones considerably there as Ukraine probably can't bring in a lot of tons of jamming equipment and heavy digging equipment to make better trenches etc. It's annoying as hell for Ukraine but I really think there going to have to call a full mobilisation from ages 18 and up.

Happy to be on your ignore list. Instead of making petty jibes all day you could have just listened to the 10 minutes of a very reputable publication and responded to what was said. But no, you decided in advance you dislike the message so it has to be wrong and attack the messenger instead. Waste of time

yes

Almost certainly. Corruption from top to bottom (irony being that the prosecutors are probably the most corrupt of all):

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/kremlin-says-military-corruption-investigations-will-lead-trial-2024-08-30/

I doubt the front line in the east would collapse. Losing Pokrovsk would be a set back but not the end of everything. I suspect at this stage a lot of psychological warfare is on the go. Anything to further unbalance the Russian war machine.

Putin seems to be thinking of visiting a country that has ratified the ICC (Mongolia next week apparently). Dipping his toe in the water of making international trips other than to clients (Belarus), fellow pariahs (North Korea) or his managers (China)

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c0e852r50x7o

Leaving aside the economic damage aspect (shortages and higher costs for Russia), I think the sanctions have had less effect on Russia's war machine and abiity to supply itself in that regard than expected. Unfortunately they are operated on a sort of honour system. I remember David O'Sullivan talking about the implementation of EU sanctions, mentioning how they try and do outreach and diplomacy with the countries helping Russia evade them, and I assume there is a sort of eternal whack-a-mole game that goes on with customers in such countries, that are fronts, with Russia as the final end consumer. It's a nonsense really.

To seriously restrict the flow of these goods, they would need to make some examples at both ends of the chain. Fining of companies and even punishment for company officers that turned out to have focussed solely on the profit to be made and did not bother "knowing the customer" (or ignored who the real customer was). Apply some secondary sanctions on the countries that have been repeatedly asked, and have shown no willingness to help with this.

This is going to anger the companies, it is going to affect their bottom line, it is going to enrage EU trading partners like Turkey and China (doing this via Hong Kong) too. It's going to harm our own economies.

Unfortunately I have come to the conclusion it's been decided that it just isn't worth going to such lengths & trouble/difficulty to aid Ukraine. Ironically I think it is the market fundamentalist ideology long promoted by US and UK organs like the Economist that helped develop this mindset of putting free markets & the profits above all in politicians, business leaders etc. (arguably elevating it above our future security and long term safety perhaps, in case of Russia sanctions?)

Yes it's always hard to tell exactly what's going on. As always, will take time for things to become clear

Another 25 years at current rates, Donbass is big and Russian gains are tiny

Meanwhile refinery and thermal power plant in Moscow are on fire

And also a powerplant north of Moscow

If they could sustain these attacks near Moscow would be good to bring thge reality of war to the Moscovites

I guess “every little helps”- but given the control he has over the people, I don’t think it will be pressure to end the war that will come- more pressure to bomb back Ukraine to stop the attacks . Yes there are people who want to overthrow the Russian elite but they’re heavily policed and suppressed - we’ve had hope before seeing demonstrations on Russian streets but it hasn’t progressed to anything .

some interesting stats and commentary here - some nice increases in discontentment of the Russian people which is always nice to hear - also including the challenges Ukraine faces in how it uses the same missiles donated from different EU countries -looks like a good website kept up to date daily - apologies if posted previously

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-august-30-2024

Russian state-owned polling agencies are recognizing limited upticks in Russian domestic discontent towards Russian President Vladimir Putin and Russian authorities amid the Ukrainian incursion into Kursk Oblast. 

The Public Opinion Foundation, a Russian state-owned polling institution, published a poll on August 30 that it conducted on August 25 showing that 28 percent of respondents expressed outrage or dissatisfaction with the actions of Russian authorities over the past month.[13] This is up from 25 percent and 18 percent in polls that the Public Opinion Foundation conducted on August 11 and July 28, respectively.[14] Respondents to the Public Opinion Foundation poll have not expressed such high dissatisfaction since polling conducted in November 2022, following the first month of the deeply unpopular partial mobilization in Russia.[15] The Russian state-owned Public Opinion Research Center (VCIOM) noted that Putin's approval rating fell by 3.5 percent to 73.6 percent between August 12 and 18 — a record fall in Putin's approval rating, 

....

seems like the only way Ukraine can win this war is by drone warfare

I cannot understand why there is nearly always someone ‘on site’ just before the bomb/drone explodes filming the whole thing. Anyone know. I thought that Putin would not allow such thing/anything being filmed /photographed without his permission. Or/ and the local guards/good Russian citizens would beat you up and smash your camera

The world has changed as Putin literally wants to dismantle the post WW2 conventions that made Ireland rich while outsourcing or defence to others

It amuses me that we and Swiss think that neutrality will somehow save us is Putin goes nuclear on our neighbours in UK and Germany respectively (both are top of his list)

Or we have another attack like last week and remaining Ukrainian reactors melt down

Radiation and refugees and economic collapse won’t give two **** about our borders

Putins mistress and children live in Switzerland (wonder why there?) so I dont think there will be any nuclear fallout blowing across its borders. The prevailing North Atlantic South Westerlies will be more effective for us than any military initiatives could be.

How is it even a “choice” or “dilemma” to arm Ukraine and keep it armed? I just don’t get it

There is no "path to war".

Macron could literally go stick a finger up Putin's rear end live on TV and nothing would happen. Russia can't take a province of Ukraine so would be scared shttless of a war with the EU.

I think it's definitely a good call that. Hurt Russia on the battlefield but really hurt the higher ups in Russia by targeting their oil and gas refineries. If they can't finance the war then it stops.

maybe. But Switzerland has areas of terrain that are easy to defend, a well equipped army and compulsory military service.

Ireland has its location, an assumption Britain would come to aid and no attractive natural resources like oil.

Switrlzerland neighbours Austria Italy and Liechtenstein are not in a position to invade. So that leaves France and Germany. Belligerence from either of those would not be accepted by the German or French people. Biggest threat to Switzerland would be booming oil prices etc from wars elsewhere.