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The accelerating fall in Sinn Féin support

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,915 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    SF are trying to get the populace to fight amongst themselves rather than shine a light on any of their policies. It's not a great sign when the main opposition is only interested in gutter fighting, Ireland suffers without a decent political opposition.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,564 ✭✭✭Finty Lemon


    The O'Broin grand plan fIr leasehold housing will be the final nail for SF. Nobody will buy into that feudal system once the details are exposed.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,978 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    SF down to 18% in latest poll. FF on 21% and FG on 25%.

    https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/poll-support-for-sinn-fein-and-party-leader-mary-lou-mcdonald-falls-again/a525885957.html

    One policy position may have wrecked SF's chances of being in government for at least a generation. They were at 37% in the polls before the immigration issue blew up.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,536 ✭✭✭touts


    Mary Lou has to go. She has done the party great service in the past but she is looking more and more like simply the decontamination period from Gerry Adams the Terrorist to Pearse Doherty the Taoiseach. She needs to step aside and let the party move onto the next stage.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,302 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    It was as much the way they talk to people who question it as much as any policy.

    Calling like long supporters Nazis because they disagree or question it was always going to be a vote loser. It's a wider problem with the left in how they interact with people who don't completely agree with them.

    FG had the same attitude problem for years and look at their electoral history, pretty grim for the first 80 years.

    Add in the obsession with Palestine. Personally I'm pro Israel, no hiding that but the obsession with Palestine is nuts, the time and energy given to it by party members makes no sense. Fixing potholes in Rafah has no relevance to Irish elections.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,302 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Mary Lou had to go because she has been around too long, that's it. Gone stale.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 23,978 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    I actually think longer term immigration will ultimately lead to a split in SF. There is such a disconnect between the ideals of many of their TDs on the issue and their working class base.

    They've been really badly exposed by it.

    I don't think there is any way for them to bridge that gap really.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,437 ✭✭✭Bobson Dugnutt


    Doherty isn’t leadership material. He’s just good for shouting and pretending to be outraged. He has almost no grasp of detail and looks like a fish out of water when he is subjected to a tough interview.

    Being young is a great advantage, since we see the world from a new perspective and we are not afraid to make radical changes - Greta Thunburg



  • Registered Users Posts: 528 ✭✭✭chrisd2019


    Doherty for Taoiseach is as laughable and lightly as Gilmore for Taoiseach was, then again SF are now just a replacement for Labour.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,302 ✭✭✭✭Danzy




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,883 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Don't think there'll be a split because very few in any sort of seniority in the party hold immigration-critical views. They'll just haemhorrage support over the issue, though perhaps not irreversibly.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,437 ✭✭✭Bobson Dugnutt


    Let's see what the Housing Plan launch by them looks like next week. They are going to make it their election issue. Ó Brion is very much to the radical end of the party, and I sometimes think he would be better off in PBP. He might have thought that SF was a more realistic way of pushing through the sacred teachings of Marx and Lenin than PBP though.

    Don't think there has ever been more of a disconnect between a party and their core support than present SF. Maybe FG back in the mid 70's.

    Being young is a great advantage, since we see the world from a new perspective and we are not afraid to make radical changes - Greta Thunburg



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,236 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    A problem here is that SF's own working class urban voters don't even seem to be aware of the type of party they are supporting. Expecting a left wing 'social justice' party to be a right wing anti-immigration party is downright odd. It's as if these voters have bought into SF's populist and anti-government rhetoric, without noticing it's a party of left wingers.



  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    It also highlights the stupidity of said voters, and how much of a supporter they really are/were….

    SFs share of the vote is about right now. They were over inflated with swing voters and FFG pulled a stroke of genius in hindsight by joining together to keep them out.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,437 ✭✭✭Bobson Dugnutt


    SF up to their usual tricks with the border.

    Being young is a great advantage, since we see the world from a new perspective and we are not afraid to make radical changes - Greta Thunburg



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,789 ✭✭✭✭padd b1975


    British and capitalist when their bottom line benefits.

    Completely all the place.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,422 ✭✭✭mikethecop


    tbf fair lad your more interested in conspiracy theories and slanderous lies though as you've already shown

    obviously the lads who actually run the organization want rid of mlm so hopefully she wont end up down a lane is south armagh like some of the other people they wanted rid of



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,717 ✭✭✭✭maccored


    I very much doubt MLMD will go anywhere, plus I think SF will probably do alright when the election happens. definitely a more realistic support base now once the floaters have moved on.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,882 ✭✭✭pureza


    SF will be re elected in the seats they won in 2020 and have a realistic possibility of going higher.

    Those not willing to vote FF or FG have no other home.

    SF's policies may be populist but they are more mainstream than ever,such that if they were in government,they wouldnt hurt the average voter.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 419 ✭✭Dingaan




  • Registered Users Posts: 94 ✭✭Hobby farmer


    I think you're right. From what I see it's a status for many people from working class backgrounds to be seen to supporting SF. Mostly because of the parties links to the IRA.

    I'd be willing to bet a handsome amount that if pressed a large cohort of there "support" haven't a clue what the party position is on any issue (bar immigration)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    No evidence that they'll poll or elect as many as in 2020. In fact any evidence is to the contrary (elections since then and polls) unless they turn the ship. If they were to stand at 2020 level, a SF candidate would be a shoe-in in every constituency.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,661 ✭✭✭✭For Forks Sake




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,882 ✭✭✭pureza


    Voters can change in 2 months

    They changed rapid from nov 19 to february 2020

    Partisan Boards posters get carried away and forget these important details



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    I did include "unless they can turn the ship". Whilst I would never be a SF supporter, I am also capable of objective analysis.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 823 ✭✭✭spillit67


    SF did not take the locals results seriously enough.

    They appear to think they failed because their communication failed. There has been a noticeable ramping up of their “comms” and trying to focus again on housing.

    IMO their downfall is traceable not only immigration but also thinking that the housing greatest hits will work. In truth 2020 was very unique. Housing supply was increasing by then but hadn’t hit the market yet. You basically had an entire generation sitting at home seething with their parents. Since mid 2020 there has been an explosion of those getting not just HTB but also first time buyers generally.

    I don’t think the government have “won” all of those who have gotten onto the ladder (it should be noted that both FG and FG would be shocked if you told them 15 years ago about their polling numbers today) but the anger gone down a notch, or at least is more understood. People see it is an increasing shitshow everywhere else in the West as well.

    SF keep playing the hits emphasising the homeless numbers but do people really care? Are they desensitised? Have migrants in tents changed perceptions of homelessness?

    The third really dangerous thing for SF imo is their €100,000 tax policy which hasn’t hit them yet. Cliff Taylor is really going on about it now and it is an open goal for their opponents. As a policy it is going to really hit them with middle earners and those who aspire to it once it gets out on the campaign. It’s also the kind of one that is really difficult for SF to roll back on as €100,000 is such a psychological barrier.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Will SF support or oppose the likely increase in Inheritance and Gift Tax thresholds for family members in the budget?



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,564 ✭✭✭Finty Lemon


    O'Broins housing policy will be the final act of self destructionfor SF. So over-hyped, but built on sand. The electorate won't go for his half-baked leasehold model and he very quickly find himself on the defensive on the detail.

    Lynn Boylan was asked this morning if the banks will sanction lending for a house on a site you don't own and she ran a mile from the question. She has no clue on the proposal it seems.

    Damp Squib incoming.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 19,236 ✭✭✭✭Strazdas


    Good points. Also, they don't seem to have a unified message and appear to have two different competing wings within the party and the grassroots (this doesn't seem to be an issue for either FF or FG).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,059 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    The word on the ground is that many of these TD's who were elected in 2020 have not impressed on the ground and have been nowhere to be seen for years. They were lucky to be elected at the time, when there was an anti-government shift to SF.

    It is expected that some of those will lose their seats.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,059 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Lightning to strike twice? Unlikely.

    There was a set of specific events that culminated in SF being the surprise package in 2020.

    People are more aware of SF and MLMD now, and the wind has gone out of their sails.

    They would be very lucky to even match their 2020 result at this stage.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,474 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    The rising trend for SF evidenced in the second half of 2019 accelerated towards the general election, driven mainly by Wolfe Tones-type nationalism (the pub kind). This time around if a trend accelerates for SF, it is downward.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,352 ✭✭✭twinytwo


    The problem for us as a country is that you have just summed up the majority of our politicians.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,934 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    tis actually common enough in politics around the world, poor choices, but sf are truly dreadful alright, so there may never be an alternative government in ireland, tis very likely we ll see many ffg governments to come…..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,392 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    The sort of housing policies being espoused by O'Broin this morning will go down well. That FG / FF haven't grasped this nettle and come up with comparable solutions reflects very poorly on them. Very poorly.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,934 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ffg will be just fine for the election, no real fear from sf, i.e. the best way forward for ireland, for change to occur, is to stay the same, maybe that should be ffg's slogan!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,302 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    There is a serious work ethic problem for this govt.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,934 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    government is doing just fine, doing what it truly was designed to do, i.e. to protect those that benefit from the accumulation of wealth, tis all good!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,474 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    That was an angle I hadn't considered on the leasehold model, but it is an interesting one. The problem for the banks is that if they were to foreclose on a default, who could they sell the house to? Who will then take a risk on buying one?

    On the compulsory purchase issue, it is actually good that some party is willing to look at the 1970s Kenny Report on Land and introduce existing use CPOs. However, successive Attorney Generals have warned that such a measure may be unconstitutional. I would expect that any legislation will be challenged by landowners. If you are in any way worried that the State might in future CPO any land or house you own (for future bus or cycle measures, for new roads, for bypasses etc.), you are now extremely unlikely to vote for SF.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,474 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Have had a quick read of O'Broin's Leaving Cert project, not good enough for a pass mark, falls well short in thinking through implications and weaknesses, understates the cost, understates the obstacles, and overambitious in timing and execution. Could have scraped a pass mark only for the padding, filling out pages and pages with images, Irish translations and executive summaries to try and claim a 20-page project is a 100-page policy, I don't accept that from any student.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 823 ✭✭✭spillit67


    We’ve also been taught by the locals that running two candidates will be a big risk for SF in many areas.



  • Registered Users Posts: 823 ✭✭✭spillit67




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,934 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    absolutely, cause rapidly rising rents is really good for the ecnomoy, and of course also good for society, it all trickles down, tis all good….



  • Registered Users Posts: 823 ✭✭✭spillit67


    O’Broin has spent the guts of a decade listening to lovely sounding solutions rather than thinking them through.

    I really suspect with this policy announcement that they don’t want in power this time. The rent freeze alone will kill funding for new housing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,934 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    …and ffg's models has been lets doing everything we can to keep the recovery(of the value of assets(property)) going, shur tis doing just grand lads, isnt it!



  • Registered Users Posts: 823 ✭✭✭spillit67


    Who are earth would build if they are told they cannot increase rents?

    In three years time it would be the exact same as Rent Pressure Zones and the eviction ban, hugely problematic to roll back.

    The Sinn Féin “plan” mostly just added 10,000 houses to what everyone else is planning. They are still hugely reliant on private construction, particularly those looking to rent out properties.

    It is an insane idea that will kill their housing proposals on arrival.



  • Registered Users Posts: 823 ✭✭✭spillit67


    Listen I know you’ve been sent out to bat but you need to be better than just the same old tired cliches. The sad thing is that the more you mention “FFG” the more likely it is that they won’t leave power as you are just making them more transfer friendly.

    Thinking you can freeze rents and incentivise people to investment capital is hilarious. Nobody will do this.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,368 ✭✭✭crusd


    The nettle that needs to be grasped by everyone is that the economy cannot sustain the current rent levels. They are completely out of whack with wages. Ditto house prices. Thats the elephant in the room. Now wouldthe Sinn Fein policy gonig to do what is needed. Probably not. But grants and tax breaks and interest reliefs are not the solution when rents and house prices are at least 30-40% above what is sustainable.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,934 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    yup, ffg's approach is monumental failure, and they and their supports will never admit this, only problem, there simply wont be a change in government for the foreseeable, so, keep the recovery going!



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,302 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Problem is look at most of the cabinet, no real experience of working in business.

    Nevermind self employment and all that entails.

    It's all about the multi nationals, that is who they socialise with.

    The day of FG being the party of the self employed are long gone.

    Lot of the tribal political headbangers on this thread, meant with the greatest respect, will not care either because SF are going on about it.

    People like Blanch would condemn the curing of cancer if a Shinner did it.

    It's a very boring thread where the virtually same content is written by a small few everyday with an updated version for the day.

    They, no more than the cabinet could care less about the crisis in costs facing SMEs and people in general.

    SMEs are by far the biggest employer in the country. Same as nearly every other country.

    Lot of people who are retired, living in the past or in sectors of employment completely insulated from economic reality.



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