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September 2024 Boards weather forecast contest

  • 29-08-2024 05:46PM
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,931 ✭✭✭✭


    Predict _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ BONUS (sunny days)

    Normal _______13.1 _25.0 _ -1.0 _ 100 _ 100 __ 13

    M.T. Cranium __ 13.6 _24.7 _ -0.2 _ 077 _ 118 __ 15

    For bonus, predict "sunny days" on basis of any reporting location exceeding 7.0 hrs (will include non-contest locations reporting). Only one of 9 or 10 locations needs to exceed or equal 7.0 to count. To give a bit of context, average values are around 4 hrs a day, and 3 or 4 days see no sun (at various locations), so average on days with sun (26-27) is about 5 hrs.

    Deadline will be 0300h 1st of September, with late penalties as per usual schedule (one point deductions for first groups of four hours or significant portion, increasing to 1 point per hour after 36h)

    Good luck!

    - - - - note for bonus, 6.9 or below will not count towards total.



«1

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 389 ✭✭waterways


    waterways _______13.7 _25.9 _ -2.3 _ 088 _ 115 __ 11



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,058 ✭✭✭Artane2002


    Artane2002 _______13.6 _23.7 _ 1.2 _ 105 _ 090 __ 11



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,395 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Pauldry _______13.4 _24.3_ -1.6_ 082 _ 111 __ 13



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,785 ✭✭✭Bsal


    Bsal _______13.7 _22.9 _ -0.5 _ 90 _ 110 __ 12



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,896 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    sryanbruen _______13.4 _23.5 _ -0.6 _ 100 _ 105 __ 10

    Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 209 ✭✭okla


    Okla____ 13.4_ 24.3_0.9_90_110_11



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 404 ✭✭mrskinner


    Skinner___14.1___25.1___1.1___91___111___11

    Post edited by mrskinner on


  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,781 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    DOCARCH __ 13.4 _25.2 _ -1.2 _ 082 _ 110 __ 12



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 354 ✭✭kindredspirit


    Kindred Spirit ___ 13.4 ___ 23.9 ___ 1.5 ___ 95 ___ 120 ___ 11



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 587 ✭✭✭dasa29


    Dasa29 __ 13.5 _24.0 _ -1.0 _ 095 _ 100 __ 15



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 200 ✭✭sunflower3


    Sunflower3_______13.4 _23.8 _ -1.5 _ 90 _ 85 __ 10



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,159 ✭✭✭John mac


    john mac_______13.9 _26.0 _ 0.2 _ 98 _ 107 __ 14



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,436 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Appledrop 13.5___22.9___1.0___115__89___10



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 857 ✭✭✭adam240610


    Adam240610_13.6 _23.9_ 0 _ 077 _ 121 __ 14



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,052 ✭✭✭mr.stonewall


    Mr stonewall___13.9___24.6___-0.4___71__123___16



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,792 ✭✭✭Joe Public


    Joe Public _______13.5 _23.5 _ -1.3 _ 95 _ 111 __ 11



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,496 ✭✭✭Jpmarn


    Jpmarn Video _______14.3 _26.0 _ 0.8 _ 85 _ 110 __ 14



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 751 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Tae laidir _______14.1 _23.4 _ 1.1 _ 112 _ 105 __ 11



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 53 ✭✭Cornerstonelad


    Cornerstonelad____14_____23_____0___89___120____15



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,265 ✭✭✭rameire


    Rameire _______13.8 _22.7 _ 1.0 _ 109 _ 088 __ 9

    🌞 3.8kwp, 🌞 Clonee, Dub.🌞



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    Wolfeeire _______14 _25.2 _ 0.1 _ 90 _ 105 __ 12

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,854 ✭✭✭dacogawa


    Dacogawa 13.9___24.6___0.5___122__86___11

    Sorry for the lateness!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,931 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Table of forecasts for September 2024

    FORECASTER _______ IMT _ MAX _ MIN _ PRC _ SUN _ BONUS (sunny days)

    Jpmarn ____________ 14.3 _ 26.0 _ 0.8 _ 085 _ 110 ______ 14

    Tae laidir ___________14.1 _ 23.4 _ 1.1 _ 112 _ 105 ___ 11

    Mr Skinner__________14.1 _ 25.1 _ 1.1 _ 091 _ 111 ___ 11

    Cornerstonelad ______14.0 _ 23.0 _ 0.0 _ 089 _ 120 _______ 15

    Wolfeeire ___ (-2) ___ 14.0 _ 25.2 _ 0.1 _ 090 _ 105 ____ 12

    john mac __________ 13.9 _ 26.0 _ 0.2 _ 098 _ 107 ______ 14

    Mr stonewall ________13.9 _ 24.6 _-0.4 _ 071 _ 123 ________ 16

    Dacogawa __ (-2) ___ 13.9 _ 24.6 _ 0.5 _ 122 _ 086 ___ 11

    Rameire ____ (-1) ___13.8 _ 22.7 _ 1.0 _ 109 _ 088 _ 9

    waterways _________ 13.7 _ 25.9 _-2.3 _ 088 _ 115 ___ 11

    Bsal ______________ 13.7 _ 22.9 _-0.5 _ 090 _ 110 ____ 12

    M.T. Cranium _______ 13.6 _ 24.7 _-0.2 _ 077 _ 118 _______ 15

    ___Con Sensus _____ 13.6 _ 24.0 _ 0.0 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 11

    Adam240610 _______ 13.6 _ 23.9 _ 0.0 _ 077 _ 121 ______ 14

    Artane2002 ________ 13.6 _ 23.7 _ 1.2 _ 105 _ 090 ___ 11

    Dasa29 ___________ 13.5 _ 24.0 _-1.0 _ 095 _ 100 _______ 15

    Joe Public __________13.5 _ 23.5 _-1.3 _ 095 _ 111 ___ 11

    Appledrop _________ 13.5 _ 22.9 _ 1.0 _ 115 _ 089 __ 10

    DOCARCH _________ 13.4 _ 25.2 _-1.2 _ 082 _ 110 ____ 12

    Okla ______________13.4 _ 24.3 _ 0.9 _ 090 _ 110 ___ 11

    Pauldry ___________ 13.4 _ 24.3 _-1.6 _ 082 _ 111 _____ 13

    Kindred Spirit ______ 13.4 _ 23.9 _ 1.5 _ 095 _ 120 ___ 11

    Sunflower3 ________ 13.4 _ 23.8 _-1.5 _ 090 _ 085 __ 10

    sryanbruen ________ 13.4 _ 23.5 _-0.6 _ 100 _ 105 __ 10

    ___Normal _________13.1 _25.0 _ -1.0 _ 100 _ 100 _____ 13

    ==================================

    Sunny days shown in staggered format to reveal spread of forecasts at a glance.

    I will start off with a log of results, if I am away next week, anyone keeping up record, please note, look towards end of day as sun data is often slow to be posted in "yesterday's wx" section.

    Scoring of bonus will apparently be no worse than 3 to 10 and possibly 6 to 10. I see no wild optimism or pessimism. If result is outside range 9-16, closest will get 10/10 and will score rest in one-point differentials.

    Any later forecasts will be added to table if entered before 24h and edit ability expire.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,436 ✭✭✭appledrop


    I'll start us off so, 1st Sept not a sunny day 0/1.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,931 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    ^ Belmullet 3.3 was tops. Will keep a log of actual values in case I want to review set-up for future contests.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,436 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Belmullet tops again at 5.6, on 2nd but again not classed as sunny day- 0/2.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,436 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Ah lads where is the sun, 3rd Sept another fail, 1.2 max at Cork- 0/3.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,395 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Today was definitely near 7 hours in Sligo however we aren't near many of the sun stations but Belmullet maybe.

    Tomorrow will for sure be one. And Friday and Saturday look odds on too.

    Actually Malin Head had quite a sunny day on 4th so maybe wer 1/4.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,395 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Yup Malin Head 9.7hrs. Wev broken our duck. 1/4.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,436 ✭✭✭appledrop


    Wow,12.7 hours of sun yesterday in Belmullet so that's 2/5.

    We still haven't had a sun day yet in Dublin, but I'm sure today will make up for it!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,896 ✭✭✭✭sryanbruen


    Believe that's Belmullet's sunniest September day on record. Previous record was 12.6 hrs in 1959 and 2015.

    Photography site - https://sryanbruenphoto.com/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,395 ✭✭✭pauldry


    26.1c in Finner a high for starters and by far the highest of 2024 there. Did Markree Newport or Mount Dillon beat it though.

    Strange that a NNE wind brought 26.1c to the NW.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 751 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Claremorris 25.2 yesterday, and Malin Head 12.1 hrs of sunshine.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,436 ✭✭✭appledrop


    That's 3/6 sun days.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,931 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    On 7 Sep, 11.3 hrs at Malin head (Valentia 9.9 and Dublin 7.3). … 4/7 days now.

    After first week,

    IMT _ 14.6 (0.4 above normal)

    MAX _ 25.2

    MIN _ not tracked yet

    PRC _ 52% of normal

    SUN _ 78% of normal (Cork was only 36%)

    BONUS (sunny days)_ 4/7

    … 25.2 is likely to be max now, if so, WolfeEire and DOCARCH will score 20 and Skinner 19 (25.1) … only 3 forecasters are still looking for a warmer result.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 751 ✭✭✭Tae laidir


    Interesting that we're on 4/7 sunny days, but only 78% of normal sunshine.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,931 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    So it's now 4/8 since highest value on Sunday 8th was 3.7 h at JC.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,159 ✭✭✭John mac


    Cork had 10.1 yesterday 09SEP/



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,931 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    So 5/9 now but keep in mind, it gets a bit more difficult as available daylight hours will be below 12h soon and there's a seasonal increase in cloudiness by later in the month.



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,781 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Low of 5.6c at Dunsany yesterday.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    Belmullet, Johnstown Castle, Casement, Cork Airport, Dublin Airport and Shannon Airport all exceeded 7hrs sunshine yesterday. Brings us up to 6/11

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,395 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Today will be 7/12 surely as even Sligo is sunny and a frosty night to come. Will be touch and go tomorrow though.



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,781 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Low of 0.7c at Mount Dillon yesterday.

    That will be eclipsed today as sub-zero at Mount Dillon this morning.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,395 ✭✭✭pauldry


    Ya think -0.7c according to wow this morning but they are sometimes a bit off.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    It was in and around that for sure.

    Meanwhile, we are up to 7/12 on the sunshine days

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Moderators, Home & Garden Moderators, Science, Health & Environment Moderators Posts: 18,781 Mod ✭✭✭✭DOCARCH


    Mount Dillon -0.8c yesterday.

    Might be a while now before that is challanged/beaten.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,931 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    Also 13 Sep failed to join "sunny days" — despite Johnstown Castle at 5.7 hrs well out ahead of rest. (now at 7/13, looks like 14 Sep also failed, will note actual result later when I post week two report) …



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    Sep 14 a fail on sunshine hours. Dublin with max at 4.3hrs

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,931 ✭✭✭✭M.T. Cranium


    After two weeks …

    IMT _ 13.1 (0.8 below normal), second week 11.7 (1.9 below normal)

    MAX _ 25.2

    MIN _ -0.8

    PRC _ 51% of normal (second week 49%)

    SUN _ 85% of normal (second week 92%)

    BONUS (sunny days)_ 7/14 (3 in second week)

    (added later _ now 8/15 as Belmullet 8.8 on 15 Sep)

    Post edited by M.T. Cranium on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,476 ✭✭✭WolfeEire
    Clare (430ft asl)


    Valentia basked in 20 minutes of sunshine yesterday. A littler sunnier elsewhere though bringing us up to 9/16 sunny days

    www.x.com/wolfeeire



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