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FF/FG/Green Government - Part 3

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,095 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Ireland deported "less than 100" rejected asylum seekers between January 2023 and April 2024 [1]. Thats a rounding error compared to the 30,000 asylum seeekers arriving per year. The rejection rate is completely irrelevant when we're not enforcing deportation on those rejected and they're free to stay in Ireland. Helen McEntee has been repeatedly called out on this issue recently.

    And that aside, you've literally repeatedly being arguing that Ireland can't reject asylum seekers because of "obligations". Its nice to note you've educated yourself on this and changed your tune and accept that we can actually reject asylum seekers if we wish to.

    Yes, Ireland is required to process asylum seekers, not to accept them. Thats what I've stated from the start. I'm glad you're now grasping the difference.

    Denmark's number of asylum seekers in 2023 was 2,479. In 2019 it was approx 2000. In 2015 it was 21,316. The idea that numbers "drastically increased" since 2019 is very clearly laughable - theyre still down by approximately 90%. And they're a fraction of what Ireland is recieving. Again, as the chart I posted (and have linked below) clearly shows.


    I have never once made any comment about €38 per week, thats a strawman of your own attempted creation. I've simply posted a list of 10 or so very easily enacted measures, that have been proven to reduce the number of asylum seekers arriving by approx 90% in the real world, from a Northern European EU country very similar to ourselves.

    I posted this list of measures the Danish government enacted that our government could copy tomorrow. But they haven't copied any of them, because they're failing on this issue - as the numbers of asylum seekers to Ireland continuing to increase every year very clearly shows.

    Theres absolutely nothing stoppong us from copying the Danish measures tomorrow, other than the continued incompetence of our current government on the migration issue.

    [1] https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/less-than-100-people-have-been-deported-since-start-of-2023-says-mcentee-1617326.html



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,257 ✭✭✭Augme


    Again, you are wrong and you never stated that from the start. This is what you originally said.

    We have no actual binding obligation to do anything with asylum policy. As, again, can be seen with Denmark.

    As I've had to point out multiple times. We do have actual binding obligations in regards to asylum policy. We have legal obligations regarding the asylum policy to process requests for asylum. I posted multiple links highlighting that fact and you decided to repeatedly ignore them. At least now you've finally accepted that Ireland do have legal obligations regarding asylum policy though.

    You posted that we should give asylum €20,000 despite that fact the evidence is clear that following the Danish government implementing this policy, asylum requests increased. But you haven't posted a list of things our government can do, our government can't do what Denamrk did, and reduce social welfare payments to asylum seekers from €1,500 per month to €750 per month becusse we already pay them much less than that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,095 ✭✭✭Blut2


    That quote was in relation to letting asylum seekers into the country. Which, again, we do not have any legal obligations to do.

    As seen by the fact you still, many many replies later, have yet to be able to link to a single document that states Ireland is forced to let asylum seekers in their tens of thousands into the country.

    And as seen by Denmark, who're party to every international "obligation" that Ireland is, yet who've very successfully implemented measures to reduce their numbers of asylum seekers by 90%.

    Denmark's number of asylum seeker arrivals are down by 90%. From 21,316 in 2015 to 2,479 in 2023. Thats effective government policy.

    And Denmark's arrivals of 2,479 arrivals in 2023 contrast with Ireland's 17,000+ in 2023, and expected approx 30,000 in 2024. The statistics are very clear that their government is doing a far better job of reducing migrant arrivals than our current government.

    And I literally posted a list of very succesful policies implemented by Denmark that Ireland can copy tomorrow here. Theres absolutely nothing stopping us from doing so, other than government incompetence. They're all completely achievable:

    https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122406763/#Comment_122406763

    edit, and just to make this even clearer for you, this chart is a very easily accessible summary of good, effective, governmental asylum policy (Denmark) vs bad, totally ineffective governmental policy (Ireland's current government):



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,968 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf




  • Registered Users Posts: 532 ✭✭✭Ozvaldo




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 54,710 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    Very disgusting indeed

    Unfortunately voters love rewarding failure and incompetence. Politicians know there's no repercussions for their actions.

    How many times do we keep voting for parties that keep **** up housing, keep **** up health, making an absolute shambles of immigration over and over again.

    Another big factor is there's no opposition party



  • Registered Users Posts: 532 ✭✭✭Ozvaldo


    Spot on shinners are a disgrace interesting to see how low theyll go -sold out Paddy big time



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,114 ✭✭✭rolling boh


    The biggest factor that is a huge boost for the government is the lack of a realistic coherent alternative government. There is little prospect of anything different after the next election especially with a few goodies thrown into the budget .Another thing from what I can see is there are plenty of people doing OK and are not likely to rock the boat to any great extent .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,715 ✭✭✭✭Galwayguy35


    We say its different here compared to countries like the UK and America but the reality is we have no opposition so its probably going to be FF/FG and a smaller party in government forever.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,839 ✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    I was listening to Yates/Cooper podcast. They were absolutely scathing about the RTE decision/cop-out.

    Some of the phrases used..."unmitigated spineless decision", "blank cheque", "rewarding failure", "funding totally bloated severances", "hoodwinking government", "cannot be reformed", "absolute cowardice in advance of election", "most shameful episode in this government's history".

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,972 ✭✭✭pureza


    Agree 100%

    However

    But I take their opinion on whats practical to do with RTÉ vs what should be done with a large pinch of salt,as they both work for a private sector competitor of RTÉ's , long jealous of Donnybrooks licence fee giving it the ability to unfairly compete

    The RTÉ can kicked untill after the election



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,839 ✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    They got the €725m bailout on top of the license fee revenue. Watch how the golden parachutes continue. Joke shop.

    I loved this headline.

    RTÉ sent ‘dozens’ of €132 boxes of macarons to advertisers on same day as €725m public bailout | Irish Independent

    RTÉ sent ‘dozens’ of €132 boxes of macarons to advertisers on same day as €725m public bailout

    Broadcaster gifted cakes from high-end patisserie Laduree to mark start of Olympics.

    And in my opinion we have way too many RTE reporters living it up in Paris.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,964 ✭✭✭✭astrofool


    They can do this without impact because the opposition has none of their own plans to challenge it with.

    RTE should have moved to a broadband charge model (per housing unit) years ago but none want to grasp that nettle so the status quo persists.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 87,981 ✭✭✭✭JP Liz V1




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,972 ✭✭✭pureza


    The boxes of sweets are normal enough and fairly tiny in terms of what those advertising companies put n ito RTÉ

    Plus the 725 milliion is money given under the auspices of the Comptroler and auditor general so it has to be used for legitimate broadcasting expenses

    Its over 3 years aswell

    I would not like to see RTÉ closed down

    The licence fee has hidden the fact that psb is not profitable

    it's programme output is heavily regulated

    If it were up to me,I'd switch off rte's expensive transmitters and have them satelite and online only

    No need to be pumping out 100kwh at so many sites 24hrs a day



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,323 ✭✭✭Mr. teddywinkles


    Absolutely scary this. Sure there can never be any repercussions for bad governance if theres no opposition.



  • Registered Users Posts: 434 ✭✭CarProblem


    Our out of control express train that is public expenditure continues to gather more and more momentum - and this is before the government decides to burn billions more in Budget 2025 with health overruns at "an unprecedented level"

    "Today’s fiscal monitor shows spending overruns are escalating rapidly. At the end of July, current spending was €2 billion (4.3%) higher than forecast at budget time."

    https://x.com/fiscalcouncil/status/1820872595341762726

    IFAC really should resign en masse at this stage as a protest against government stupidity



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 87,981 ✭✭✭✭JP Liz V1




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,839 ✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    They are such simplistic idiots. Harris wants to quick fix everything in advance of the election. It's so transparent.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,999 ✭✭✭0ph0rce0


    An extra 14 quid in the pocket a week. Unpack the bags darling we're staying put.

    These fools are living in another world.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 35,849 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    The €725m is not on top of the licence fee, it's the sum of licence fee and exchequer funding.

    In Cavan there was a great fire / Judge McCarthy was sent to inquire / It would be a shame / If the nuns were to blame / So it had to be caused by a wire.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,151 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    FG are the simple idiots with the highest first preference votes in the land, according to the polls & very likley to be forming another term in govt with FF in the autumn.

    I think the 750 euro thing isnt meant to be viewed in isolation. There will be other benefits im the October budget, hopefully!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,715 ✭✭✭✭Galwayguy35


    Grainne Seoige wants to run for FF in the next election.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,839 ✭✭✭Cluedo Monopoly


    Saw that. Presume wants O'Cuiv votes. We are now in the realm of Celebrity Politics in Ireland. Such a joke.

    What are they doing in the Hyacinth House?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 87,981 ✭✭✭✭JP Liz V1




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,715 ✭✭✭✭Galwayguy35


    Will be interesting to see how it pans out.

    I'd have thought she would be left leaning and would go for a party like the Soc Dems.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,768 ✭✭✭Floppybits


    Haven't heard anything from the Dancing Jockey or the former Rose since being elected.



  • Registered Users Posts: 434 ✭✭CarProblem


    must read article from Cormac Lucey (again). How the runaway expenditure isn't getting more focus I simply don't know

    https://cormaclucey.blogspot.com/2024/08/loose-fiscal-settings-mean-budget-2025.html



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,347 ✭✭✭howiya


    I wonder why these figures come out almost a month late. These figures are for end of July so we've likely set another record since.

    Contrast that to the ECB releasing August inflation figures today. Prices still rising.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,968 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Latest Sindo/Ireland Thinks poll, pretty much as you were, nobody moving by more than 1%

    FFG now on combined 46%, surely a very real -prospect of forming a government without outside help



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,824 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/dublin-mep-calls-for-investigation-into-ticketmaster-pricing-after-oasis-ticket-sales-1667257.html

    Kids cannot get the places in schools that they want, the emergency wards in our hospitals are bursting, but our local Fianna Fail/Fine Gael MEP Regina Doherty is more concerned about who gets Oasis tickets or not.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 54,710 ✭✭✭✭Headshot


    This government is all about deflection. It's text book at this stage, it's all they know



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,824 ✭✭✭✭Francie Barrett


    Where are Oasis tickets on Maslow's hierarchy of needs?

    In fairness, we did ask for this.

    You people did vote Regina Doherty as the preferred candidate of all of Dublin so she could fake annoyance at Oasis demanding top dollar for the latest popularity contest.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 87,981 ✭✭✭✭JP Liz V1


    I wonder what TDs missed out on tickets, did any personally write to Noel and Liam



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,003 ✭✭✭✭_Kaiser_


    The Indo reckons two-thirds want to see FF and FG reelected for another term.

    While not exactly surprising in any sense, it highlights two things really - the complete lack of any real(istic) political alternatives in this country, and the subsequent rewarding of failure as a result.

    These 2 parties have overseen a situation where people can't afford a home (if they could find one in the first place), where parents have their "children" back with them in their 30s, where a single Children's Hospital has become a black hole of taxpayer money with no end in sight and where getting a GP appointment or non-critical care is harder and more expensive than ever, where crime and punishment is a farce and the Gardai are demoralised because of the most useless Justice Minister we've seen in decades and a Commissioner who it seems is hugely unpopular among his own ranks - and oh yes, where the country has been overrun by tens of thousands of third world economic migrants posing as refugees who are then forcibly planted among communities without any regard for those already living there or the additional stresses on all of the above that this causes as well.

    But then, why would there be changes when the electorate seem poised to return parties headed by a man who's never had a job outside of his party and no qualifications, and another man who only wanted to be Taoiseach no matter what (so he wouldn't be the odd one out) but who handed over the running of the country to a bunch of unelected civil servants rather than lead through an unprecedented "crisis" situation and who ever since seems to enjoy touring the World at our expense and tut-tutting at the electorate back home for complaining about any of the issues.

    I do have a campaign slogan for them though - "5 years squandered, another 5 to piss away" or perhaps "a lot undone, a lot more to come" (which reflects better the destruction of the social contract and increasing friction and division in Irish society that they've promoted in their current term).

    More Good Times ahead for sure!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,323 ✭✭✭Mr. teddywinkles


    Deleted



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,095 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Not to minimize the many, many failings of our current government but a huge part of the blame for their popularity has to lay with SF. SF have gone from polling at nearly the same as FF and FG combined, to less than either now, in the last 12 months.

    Thats an absolutely shocking achievement given we've had the same party in government for 13 years now, and the litany of policy failures on things like immigration, housing and public services.

    SF are the only serious/large opposition party that has a chance to lead a government, but have spent their time trying desperately to sit on fences and not offend anyone - instead of actually laying out firm policies that differ from the government.

    They've also shown unbelievable arrogance completely ignoring what polls show their supporters want - much stricter rules on asylum seekers etc.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,715 ✭✭✭✭Galwayguy35


    I think the only question now is who will be the third party in government with FF/FG after the next election.

    Can't see any way the shinners will be able to get the numbers to form a government if FF/FG want to keep them out.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,968 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Not a given that they'll need a third party. If they're on a combined 46% of FPV as per the latest poll, every chance FF & FG will have a workable majority of seats between them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,972 ✭✭✭pureza


    Clearly most voters disagree with that view,democracy,terrible isn't it



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,291 ✭✭✭DataDude


    Are these asks not somewhat conflicting?

    You seem on one hand to be saying Sinn Fein are too flip floppy and not strong enough to their principles for fear of upsetting a cohort people (I agree with this view).

    Then in the last paragraph you say they are not being strict enough on restricting asylum seekers and need to change their position completely on this because it’s upsetting people?
    (Sinn Fein are (supposedly) a left wing democratic socialist party with a history of being very supportive of open borders)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,095 ✭✭✭Blut2


    No.

    I didn't once mention flip flopping, I said sitting on the fence. Immigration policy is a good example.

    70% of SF voters as polls in mid-May (so likely higher now) wanted much stricter rules on asylum seekers/immigration with more closed borders, the highest of any party supporters in the country. 63% of voters overall agreed, and 73% of voters overall said the government should do more to deport failed applicants.

    SF, being the main party of oppositon, with a support base heavily in favour of more restrictive immigration policy, and with a majority of voters in general also in favour of this, should have been in prime position to benefit electorally from calling out the government's very public failures on the issue and by saying what they'd do differently. Thats what a competent main opposition party would be doing.

    Yet SF have been very quiet on calling the government to account or presenting an alternative. Because instead they've tried to not offend anyone, to sit on the fence. They've done their best not to draw attention to the issue, and to avoid articulating what they'd do differently, for fear of losing any voters on either end of their spectrum of support. But instead they've managed to lose a much larger chunk of their support due to this ineffectiveness/unresponsiveness.

    They've completely failed to respond to the wishes of the electorate in general, and their supporters in particular, by remaining largely silent on the issue. And they're being punished in the polls, and were in the locals, as a result.

    Its not that people think FG/FF are doing a good job on the issue - its just that they don't know, or trust, SF to do any differently/better, because SF haven't explained sufficiently how or what they would do.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,291 ✭✭✭DataDude


    I understand all that, but my point is wondering why Sinn Fein hasn’t been clearer on how it would reduce immigration numbers is like wondering why the Green Party haven’t been clearer on how they’d reducing carbon tax. It runs completely at odds to their DNA.

    Parties have their long term beliefs and generally don’t violently swing from left wing to right wing due to short term changes in public sentiment because it makes you look incoherent. 18 months ago it was all the rage to put Ukraine badges on your car in solidarity. Now it’s in vogue to burn down their accommodation. Who knows where it will be in another 18 months.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,003 ✭✭✭✭_Kaiser_


    I think you're making the classic mistake of seeing the lack of an attractive/viable alternative as an endorsement of the status quo.

    Either either or two-thirds of the electorate really are as short-sighted and stupid as it seems! Given the concerns/priorities being expressed in even that report, why would you vote for parties that have wholly failed to address them already, or actively made them worse in the current term?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,095 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Its not at all like wondering why the Green Party haven't been clearer on why how they'd reduce carbon tax, because most Green Party supporters aren't in favour of reducing carbon tax.

    If a large majority of a political party's supporters are strongly in favour of a policy either that political party changes its platform to reflect that, or its going to lose a lot of its voters. Thats how democracy works. And its exactly what has happened to SF.

    Being in favour of migration controls is also not a policy platform thats in any way incompatible with being left-wing. Historically, before the move to a focus on culture war issues in the 1990s, left-wing political parties were in favour of migration controls because large scale unskilled immigration tends to negatively impact the working class most. Plenty of political parties elsewhere in Europe are also left-wing and in favour of migration controls in 2024 - the BSW in Germany, the Social Democrats in Denmark etc.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,151 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    SF look to have stayed true to their stance on asylum immigration thus far, despite their voters clearly wanting something different.

    I think the danger of them reversing their stance, aside from rowing against their principles, also opens the door to FFG to accuse them of flip flopping toward the populist notion.

    And if they will do that on asylum immigration, what other values will they do they a 180 on.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,151 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    There isn't a perfect party in politics.

    Each voter has their own priorities, but let's assume the key priorities are immigration, housing and health.

    If a voter decides that FFG will address those 3 issues more effectivley than SF will, they will vote FFG.

    It's a 2 person event, competing in a triathlon. It doesnt matter if we know that neither competitor is a world beater. We have to back the person that we think will score the most points.

    SF haven't offered a different approach to asylum immigration, so its quite understandable to think the current govt are a safer bet.

    SF want to push out the investment funds that make the majority of new home complexes in the state viable. We have record new commencements this year and will see near 40k homes built by year end. The govt have committed to 250k more homes up until 2030.

    I do not see how SF would deliver this number of homes by 2030, if they remove investment funds from the equation.

    We spend 30% more on healthcare than the OECD average and spend is rising. New homes will come on stream for nurses and hospital staff via an increase in cost rental and affordable home schemes.

    Again, SF havent produced an alternative to HSE management that the electorate seem to perfer.

    Although far from perfect, the current govt are making progress on the above issues.

    The only question that matters is who will make the most progress over the next 5 years and it looks clear that most people think FFG will outperform SF in that hypothetical race.

    It doesnt matter if FFG dont score enough points to qualify for the olympics, it only matters if they score more points than SF.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,291 ✭✭✭DataDude


    I disagree. If Sinn Fein voters aren’t happy with their parties clear and consistent position on immigration, that’s their problem. They then need to decide if it’s red line enough to find an alternative (which it seems they are doing)

    Parties may nuance their position on some issues. However, It is rare to see a party do complete 180 switch on a fundamental core principle, especially in very short time period.

    Many long term SF party members and voters would be abhorred at the thought of them suddenly going hard right on immigration.

    In these instances the natural thing to happen in a democracy in my opinion, is either that party splinters in two if the issue becomes too divisive (see Aontu) and a new ‘anti immigration SF’ sets up…or more normally…voters just move to a party which reflects their views more closely.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,095 ✭✭✭Blut2


    If a large majority of a party's membership want a certain policy enacted then its very rare to see a party not embrace that. For fairly obvious electoral reasons.

    When has open borders ever been a fundamental core principle for SF? Their only core principle that I'm aware of they possess is Republicanism / unification. They've always been flexible on everything else over the decades as the party has evolved.

    The polls are very clear that far fewer SF party members and voters would be "abhorred" at them becoming in favour of reducing immigration than there are against the party's current position. Which is why SF are now, belatedly, and hesitantly, moving their policy.

    You're rather wrong in the real world on party splits - its very rare in Anglosphere democracies for large parties to split on issues like this. In the real world parties mostly just evolve their platforms to match the views of their members and voters. Reference FG and FF (and even SF themselves) and their evolution on issues over the last 100 years, and lack of splits (apart from the PD experiment - and that was more down to personality conflicts than policy). Or the durability and evolution of Labour and the Tories, or the Republicans and Democrats.



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