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FF/FG/Green Government - Part 3

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,272 ✭✭✭Blut2


    No.

    I didn't once mention flip flopping, I said sitting on the fence. Immigration policy is a good example.

    70% of SF voters as polls in mid-May (so likely higher now) wanted much stricter rules on asylum seekers/immigration with more closed borders, the highest of any party supporters in the country. 63% of voters overall agreed, and 73% of voters overall said the government should do more to deport failed applicants.

    SF, being the main party of oppositon, with a support base heavily in favour of more restrictive immigration policy, and with a majority of voters in general also in favour of this, should have been in prime position to benefit electorally from calling out the government's very public failures on the issue and by saying what they'd do differently. Thats what a competent main opposition party would be doing.

    Yet SF have been very quiet on calling the government to account or presenting an alternative. Because instead they've tried to not offend anyone, to sit on the fence. They've done their best not to draw attention to the issue, and to avoid articulating what they'd do differently, for fear of losing any voters on either end of their spectrum of support. But instead they've managed to lose a much larger chunk of their support due to this ineffectiveness/unresponsiveness.

    They've completely failed to respond to the wishes of the electorate in general, and their supporters in particular, by remaining largely silent on the issue. And they're being punished in the polls, and were in the locals, as a result.

    Its not that people think FG/FF are doing a good job on the issue - its just that they don't know, or trust, SF to do any differently/better, because SF haven't explained sufficiently how or what they would do.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,556 ✭✭✭DataDude


    I understand all that, but my point is wondering why Sinn Fein hasn’t been clearer on how it would reduce immigration numbers is like wondering why the Green Party haven’t been clearer on how they’d reducing carbon tax. It runs completely at odds to their DNA.

    Parties have their long term beliefs and generally don’t violently swing from left wing to right wing due to short term changes in public sentiment because it makes you look incoherent. 18 months ago it was all the rage to put Ukraine badges on your car in solidarity. Now it’s in vogue to burn down their accommodation. Who knows where it will be in another 18 months.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,227 ✭✭✭✭_Kaiser_


    I think you're making the classic mistake of seeing the lack of an attractive/viable alternative as an endorsement of the status quo.

    Either either or two-thirds of the electorate really are as short-sighted and stupid as it seems! Given the concerns/priorities being expressed in even that report, why would you vote for parties that have wholly failed to address them already, or actively made them worse in the current term?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,272 ✭✭✭Blut2


    Its not at all like wondering why the Green Party haven't been clearer on why how they'd reduce carbon tax, because most Green Party supporters aren't in favour of reducing carbon tax.

    If a large majority of a political party's supporters are strongly in favour of a policy either that political party changes its platform to reflect that, or its going to lose a lot of its voters. Thats how democracy works. And its exactly what has happened to SF.

    Being in favour of migration controls is also not a policy platform thats in any way incompatible with being left-wing. Historically, before the move to a focus on culture war issues in the 1990s, left-wing political parties were in favour of migration controls because large scale unskilled immigration tends to negatively impact the working class most. Plenty of political parties elsewhere in Europe are also left-wing and in favour of migration controls in 2024 - the BSW in Germany, the Social Democrats in Denmark etc.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,973 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    SF look to have stayed true to their stance on asylum immigration thus far, despite their voters clearly wanting something different.

    I think the danger of them reversing their stance, aside from rowing against their principles, also opens the door to FFG to accuse them of flip flopping toward the populist notion.

    And if they will do that on asylum immigration, what other values will they do they a 180 on.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,973 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    There isn't a perfect party in politics.

    Each voter has their own priorities, but let's assume the key priorities are immigration, housing and health.

    If a voter decides that FFG will address those 3 issues more effectivley than SF will, they will vote FFG.

    It's a 2 person event, competing in a triathlon. It doesnt matter if we know that neither competitor is a world beater. We have to back the person that we think will score the most points.

    SF haven't offered a different approach to asylum immigration, so its quite understandable to think the current govt are a safer bet.

    SF want to push out the investment funds that make the majority of new home complexes in the state viable. We have record new commencements this year and will see near 40k homes built by year end. The govt have committed to 250k more homes up until 2030.

    I do not see how SF would deliver this number of homes by 2030, if they remove investment funds from the equation.

    We spend 30% more on healthcare than the OECD average and spend is rising. New homes will come on stream for nurses and hospital staff via an increase in cost rental and affordable home schemes.

    Again, SF havent produced an alternative to HSE management that the electorate seem to perfer.

    Although far from perfect, the current govt are making progress on the above issues.

    The only question that matters is who will make the most progress over the next 5 years and it looks clear that most people think FFG will outperform SF in that hypothetical race.

    It doesnt matter if FFG dont score enough points to qualify for the olympics, it only matters if they score more points than SF.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,556 ✭✭✭DataDude


    I disagree. If Sinn Fein voters aren’t happy with their parties clear and consistent position on immigration, that’s their problem. They then need to decide if it’s red line enough to find an alternative (which it seems they are doing)

    Parties may nuance their position on some issues. However, It is rare to see a party do complete 180 switch on a fundamental core principle, especially in very short time period.

    Many long term SF party members and voters would be abhorred at the thought of them suddenly going hard right on immigration.

    In these instances the natural thing to happen in a democracy in my opinion, is either that party splinters in two if the issue becomes too divisive (see Aontu) and a new ‘anti immigration SF’ sets up…or more normally…voters just move to a party which reflects their views more closely.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,272 ✭✭✭Blut2


    If a large majority of a party's membership want a certain policy enacted then its very rare to see a party not embrace that. For fairly obvious electoral reasons.

    When has open borders ever been a fundamental core principle for SF? Their only core principle that I'm aware of they possess is Republicanism / unification. They've always been flexible on everything else over the decades as the party has evolved.

    The polls are very clear that far fewer SF party members and voters would be "abhorred" at them becoming in favour of reducing immigration than there are against the party's current position. Which is why SF are now, belatedly, and hesitantly, moving their policy.

    You're rather wrong in the real world on party splits - its very rare in Anglosphere democracies for large parties to split on issues like this. In the real world parties mostly just evolve their platforms to match the views of their members and voters. Reference FG and FF (and even SF themselves) and their evolution on issues over the last 100 years, and lack of splits (apart from the PD experiment - and that was more down to personality conflicts than policy). Or the durability and evolution of Labour and the Tories, or the Republicans and Democrats.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,374 ✭✭✭deirdremf


    The immigration issue is a tried and tested issue by the rightwing throughout Europe, and beyond.


    Although this is not a completely spurious issue (e.g. 100,000 Ukrainian immigrants/refugees in a very short period of time with the resulting stresses on housing, healthcare and education), immigration is used as a major distraction from (other) genuine social issues (such as housing and healthcare for those already here) by the main actors in the economy.


    I'm aware of one instance where this was made patently obvious: in Spain when a new radical leftwing movement - Podemos - came into existence about 10 years ago, the head of one of the banks (who was also one of the main men in the Spanish version of IBEC) declared that what was needed was a rightwing version of Podemos. And not long afterwards that new rightwing party came into existence: it is called Vox, it is a populist rightwing party that has immigration as one of their main concerns. But of course the real reason for its existence was and is the hope of keeping the left wing out of power.


    This strategy has been, is being, attempted all over Europe, and is generally fairly successful - consider Meloni in Italy, Orban in Hungary, Wilder in the Netherlands or Le Pen in France and Farage in England; to the extent that such far-right parties have got a quota of power in quite a few countries at regional and local level even where they haven't managed to get into government by hook or by crook.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,145 ✭✭✭✭Galwayguy35


    Nice bike shed.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,984 ✭✭✭Floppybits


    As government supporters on here would say " a nothing burger".



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,495 ✭✭✭howiya


    McGahon's political ambitions still alive I see. Selected at selection convention to run in the general election. The party of law and order....



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,984 ✭✭✭Floppybits


    Poor auld Neale Richmond. Who let him out without a minder? Calls for 20% stamp duty to be put on bulk buyers, 8 months are voting down the SF/Soc Dem motion in the Dáil calling for the same thing. There must be an election coming.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,495 ✭✭✭howiya


    Speaking of an election Green Party TD Francis Noel Duffy has a gofundme set up to fund his reelection campaign.

    Earning a TD's salary and his wife earning a ministerial salary and he has the hand out for donations.

    He has the various donation limits on the page but I wonder how these are enforced. Does gofundme provide him with sufficient detail? What happens if one of his social media followers from another country makes a donation?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,054 ✭✭✭0ph0rce0


    Himself and the missus probably pull in about half a million a year with salary , expenses and no doubt they have some sort of business or side hustle going bringing in extra income.

    The tax payer has been paying for his bills and lifestyle for years.

    And he's online looking for 3,000 quid.

    If it means that much put your hand in your own pocket ffs.

    That's pennies to that family.

    Some neck on the ****.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 17,145 ✭✭✭✭Galwayguy35


    Shower of clowns spent the last 8 years fighting a case to stop the country getting 14 billion.

    Delighted the European Courts put them in their place.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,809 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    The driving out of the big investment funds is a big problem.

    Ireland has the lowest number of apartments in the EU. We need to build more densely, and on brownfield sites within our city boundaries. Investment funds are the best source of investment for these apartment blocks.

    Traditional developers in Ireland have favoured building traditional housing estates, selling as they go, to finance the building of the rest. That doesn't work with apartment blocks as you can only sell at the end. Even in mixed estates, they build the 3 and 4 bedroom semis first.

    If SF were to succeed in driving out the investment funds immediately, but took time to get their public building proposals going, we could see house numbers drop below 20,000 in 2026 (2025 will be ok for completions because of work started under this government).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 447 ✭✭CarProblem


    The runaway train is getting run away-ier

    https://x.com/gavreilly/status/1833497845875286480



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,226 ✭✭✭Tenzor07


    If you travel to the UK you can see that all new apartment blocks are at least double the height of the low rise buildings we have here, so need to build higher..

    No doubt someone will come on here and tell me it's because our Fire Brigades ladders are too small..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,984 ✭✭✭Floppybits


    Have you lived in apartments in Ireland?

    I have, I spent 10 years living in an apartment and I am sure there are many on here that have lived or are living in apartments and I bet most of them will say that the apartments are OK if you are living on your own or maybe as a couple but the apartments built here are not places where you can have a family. It doesn't matter on the number of bedrooms, it is the size of the apartments especially the living space, they tiny and space is cramped. Compare to the apartments I was in when I lived in Paris and the people were raising families in them, they were plenty big with a generous sized living space, unlike here where you can barely swing a cat in the living space. Apartments in this country are built with short term living in mind rather than long term.

    I have no argument about building more apartments but they have to be more appealing to people than the shoeboxes that have been built and also contain amenities like say a Laundry room where residents in the apartment buildings can do their laundry instead of trying to do it in an already miniscule apartment. Just things like that to make it more appealing. Secondly they government needs to regulate the management companies, it is like the wild west in that area, the management companies charge through the nose in management fees and you would be lucky if they paint the common areas.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,226 ✭✭✭Tenzor07


    A wide set of issues there, however people need a place to live and if high rise apartments are the way to provide that then let's do it.. all these low-rise low density apartments are useless and once built and occupied there's no adding more floors. Every major city in the UK are building up apartment blocks with twice the number of floors as here.. Young people who want to live independent lives after they leave school/college/get their first jobs will gladly live in an apartment that meets their basic needs.. I mean how much space do we need?

    In Dublin city it's an ultra low density city, there's enough private garden space in the city for 300 x St. Stephen's Greens.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,906 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    …as we d say, its all 'relative', i.e. it depends what that money is being spent on….

    …for example if its being spent on trying to provide us with our needs, including our long term needs such as our long term infrastructure needs, its very likely to be a good thing, but if its being wasted on not so important things such as over priced needs, we ve got a problem!

    …and the fact, we have a slowly aging population, state spending is just gonna have to keep increasing, in order to try catch up with our aging needs…..

    ….i.e. get use to increasing state spending, as theres just no other way out of that….



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 325 ✭✭Lofidelity


    You are years out of date with this post. The shoebox apartments you are referring to are probably those built over twenty years ago, such as along the Dublin quays, Parnell st and Christchurch areas or Dock Rd Limerick. They were small but were affordable and in good locations. Yes they were built with renters in mind who would later move to a house in the suburbs. Modern apartments are better in every way but that makes them much more expensive. Paris has been a large city for many, many years, unlike Dublin so apartment living is the norm.

    There has been regulation of management companies for many years by the PRSA. Owners can vote to replace the management agent at the AGM if they are not happy with the service. The previous years accounts are examined at the AGM and the next years budget too. The fee the management agent takes is also made clear. To say its the wild west is again, a decade out of date.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,973 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Exactly.

    SF need to explain how they would finance and deliver the workforce required to build the volume of homes they are promising.

    I agree with you that there would be a natural dip in new home output, whilst the local councils prepped and recruited, meaning 2025 (if not 2026 also) output would drop off a cliff.

    The irony is that under their proposal, SF are still expecting the majority of the homes to be built by the private market, even though they plan to starve that market of investment....go figure.

    I am yet to see any logical reason to believe that SF would deliver more homes than FFG over the next term.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,582 ✭✭✭Mr. teddywinkles


    Only thing it might set a precedent for future investment. That's the worrying outcome by these companies.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,712 ✭✭✭corcaigh07


    https://x.com/nick_delehanty/status/1834480539039899775?s=46

    Interesting thread on Twitter, was Paschal involved with the bike shed sh*tshow?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,227 ✭✭✭✭_Kaiser_


    Most Irish people still don't want to live in apartments though - at least not long term, and certainly not at the rental prices being asked in Dublin.

    They (and renting in general) are seen as a stepping stone to the semi-D in the suburbs/country, and they're built and treated (by the people, by builders, by councils and Government) as such.

    Until you change THAT mindset it will make little difference even if they were huge with great facilities onsite.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 36,912 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    I lived in a mixed development for a few years, the developer still owned the majority of the units so had the majority of AGM votes. They held the AGMs midweek during the day.

    I'm partial to your abracadabra,

    I'm raptured by the joy of it all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,272 ✭✭✭Blut2


    What exactly are you basing that on? Do you have any actual studies or polls to back that up or is it just entirely anecodtal?

    Because people everywhere in the rest of Europe, and even in the UK and US, live in apartments at a far higher rate than Ireland. And we're not some unique apartment-phobic national race.

    But even if Irish people were, 22% of the country is now foreign born as of last year, and thats rapidly increasing - to the tune of about 1% a year. And none of those people are apartment-phobic.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,227 ✭✭✭✭_Kaiser_


    Ah that's grand then. We'll keep importing people wholesale (many of whom are here under false pretences or we can't verify who they are at all) and let them live in apartments so we can be like our good European neighbours(!!)

    The changing demographics and the speed at which they're changing because of these artificial measures are a wholly different, but I'll grant you far more important, topic. We can't support many of the people here now (native or otherwise) and that's going to bring far deeper consequences and wider impacts to Ireland and our society.



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