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The accelerating fall in Sinn Féin support

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,386 ✭✭✭twinytwo


    The problem for us as a country is that you have just summed up the majority of our politicians.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,234 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    tis actually common enough in politics around the world, poor choices, but sf are truly dreadful alright, so there may never be an alternative government in ireland, tis very likely we ll see many ffg governments to come…..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,392 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    The sort of housing policies being espoused by O'Broin this morning will go down well. That FG / FF haven't grasped this nettle and come up with comparable solutions reflects very poorly on them. Very poorly.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,234 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    ffg will be just fine for the election, no real fear from sf, i.e. the best way forward for ireland, for change to occur, is to stay the same, maybe that should be ffg's slogan!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,671 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    There is a serious work ethic problem for this govt.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,234 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    government is doing just fine, doing what it truly was designed to do, i.e. to protect those that benefit from the accumulation of wealth, tis all good!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,980 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    That was an angle I hadn't considered on the leasehold model, but it is an interesting one. The problem for the banks is that if they were to foreclose on a default, who could they sell the house to? Who will then take a risk on buying one?

    On the compulsory purchase issue, it is actually good that some party is willing to look at the 1970s Kenny Report on Land and introduce existing use CPOs. However, successive Attorney Generals have warned that such a measure may be unconstitutional. I would expect that any legislation will be challenged by landowners. If you are in any way worried that the State might in future CPO any land or house you own (for future bus or cycle measures, for new roads, for bypasses etc.), you are now extremely unlikely to vote for SF.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,980 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Have had a quick read of O'Broin's Leaving Cert project, not good enough for a pass mark, falls well short in thinking through implications and weaknesses, understates the cost, understates the obstacles, and overambitious in timing and execution. Could have scraped a pass mark only for the padding, filling out pages and pages with images, Irish translations and executive summaries to try and claim a 20-page project is a 100-page policy, I don't accept that from any student.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,093 ✭✭✭spillit67


    We’ve also been taught by the locals that running two candidates will be a big risk for SF in many areas.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,093 ✭✭✭spillit67




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,234 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    absolutely, cause rapidly rising rents is really good for the ecnomoy, and of course also good for society, it all trickles down, tis all good….



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,093 ✭✭✭spillit67


    O’Broin has spent the guts of a decade listening to lovely sounding solutions rather than thinking them through.

    I really suspect with this policy announcement that they don’t want in power this time. The rent freeze alone will kill funding for new housing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,234 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    …and ffg's models has been lets doing everything we can to keep the recovery(of the value of assets(property)) going, shur tis doing just grand lads, isnt it!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,093 ✭✭✭spillit67


    Who are earth would build if they are told they cannot increase rents?

    In three years time it would be the exact same as Rent Pressure Zones and the eviction ban, hugely problematic to roll back.

    The Sinn Féin “plan” mostly just added 10,000 houses to what everyone else is planning. They are still hugely reliant on private construction, particularly those looking to rent out properties.

    It is an insane idea that will kill their housing proposals on arrival.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,093 ✭✭✭spillit67


    Listen I know you’ve been sent out to bat but you need to be better than just the same old tired cliches. The sad thing is that the more you mention “FFG” the more likely it is that they won’t leave power as you are just making them more transfer friendly.

    Thinking you can freeze rents and incentivise people to investment capital is hilarious. Nobody will do this.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,445 ✭✭✭crusd


    The nettle that needs to be grasped by everyone is that the economy cannot sustain the current rent levels. They are completely out of whack with wages. Ditto house prices. Thats the elephant in the room. Now wouldthe Sinn Fein policy gonig to do what is needed. Probably not. But grants and tax breaks and interest reliefs are not the solution when rents and house prices are at least 30-40% above what is sustainable.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,234 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    yup, ffg's approach is monumental failure, and they and their supports will never admit this, only problem, there simply wont be a change in government for the foreseeable, so, keep the recovery going!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,671 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    Problem is look at most of the cabinet, no real experience of working in business.

    Nevermind self employment and all that entails.

    It's all about the multi nationals, that is who they socialise with.

    The day of FG being the party of the self employed are long gone.

    Lot of the tribal political headbangers on this thread, meant with the greatest respect, will not care either because SF are going on about it.

    People like Blanch would condemn the curing of cancer if a Shinner did it.

    It's a very boring thread where the virtually same content is written by a small few everyday with an updated version for the day.

    They, no more than the cabinet could care less about the crisis in costs facing SMEs and people in general.

    SMEs are by far the biggest employer in the country. Same as nearly every other country.

    Lot of people who are retired, living in the past or in sectors of employment completely insulated from economic reality.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,234 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    …sme's are in serious trouble, truly exposed to market and state failures…..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,980 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    The economy can sustain the current rent levels - it is actually doing that. If it wasn't nobody would be renting those properties.

    What the economy cannot sustain is everybody who wants to live within ten minutes walk of Dublin City Centre being able to do so living in a three-bed semi-detatched and garden at a rent of less than €500 per month.

    There is nothing in the SF document that addresses the real challenges that we face. If we want housing to decrease in price, we need to do things like increase housing density inside the M50, improve public transport so that there are more options for places to live. Metrolink by itself, with proper house density lead to hundreds of thousands of homes within a short commute of the city centre, not to mention DART improvements. Changing one incentive scheme (First Home Scheme) for another - SF's weird land lease scheme - will not make any significant difference. It might change the cohort of people who avail of it, but it won't increase the number of houses being built, but because of its weirdness, it might decrease the number being built, and certainly decrease the numbers wishing to avail of a scheme.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,234 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    …its clearly obvious our economy, and in particular our societal entity of our economy, cannot sustain the rate of inflation of property and rental prices, this is clearly obvious!

    …this is ultimately the failure of modern political and economic ideological thinking, this is so serious now, even our opposition parties also dont know how to resolve this!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,980 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    No, it isn't clearly obvious. Land is finite, you cannot build a house where there is already a house, unless you knock it down. So absent some major regeneration, those that want to live in the Borough of Dun Laoghaire will face ever increasing rents and property prices because there are only so many houses to go around on that small bit of land.

    The only way to bring property prices and rental down is to build more services and better public transport to ensure that greater amounts of land have access to where people want to go.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,234 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    …and the disturbing thing is, many, well educated and intelligent people dont see this!

    …again, this rate of inflation is clearly not sustainable, it will not last, there will be a crash at some point in time, although that could be many years, even decades into the future, and its very likely pension funds will be pulled with it!

    …this is clearly obvious!

    …although i do agree with some of what you say



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,671 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    You may not realize this but there is a lot of the country outside of the M50, I'd say most of the population wouldn't be on or near the M50 from one month to the next. Probably have been in the dart less than 10 times in their life.

    Where did you pick 500 a month from.

    Update from your parochial 1980s view, that is a long time ago. Deal with the now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,980 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    The rate of inflation is not sustainable, correct, but emigration will act as a natural correction to this, but the current level of rents and property prices in desirable areas will not decrease. It will never be cheap to buy in areas like Dublins 2,4 and 6, Dun Laoghaire, Blackrock, Howth etc.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,234 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    under financialised dynamics, which is what we have here, in regards property, the main contributing factor to price inflation is in fact the money supplied into the sector, i.e. the more money thats pushed into the market, the higher prices go, this is exactly what will happen again, with the governments current proposal, we has evidence for this here in ireland and in most other countries that have done so…..

    …i.e. market equilibrium is not a reality, it simply doesnt exist, particular under such dynamics….



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,445 ✭✭✭crusd


    It is unsustainable pretty much nationwide at the expense of other areas or a normal functioning economy.

    https://www.daft.ie/for-rent/house-5-amerillo-court-dublin-road-tuam-tuam-co-galway/5815942

    1,800pm for a two bed apartment in Tuam Co Galway. Not exactly Dun Laoghaire. A reasonable expectation for a single person in their late 20's or a single parent. That rent represents 66% of take home pay for the average person.

    To say its a Dublin city centre problem is disingenuous at best.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,093 ✭✭✭spillit67


    Rents are.

    Dubious of house prices tbh. I think they’ve been fairly regulated to not go out of control.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,093 ✭✭✭spillit67




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,093 ✭✭✭spillit67


    Delete



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,093 ✭✭✭spillit67


    A three bed social house would be about those close to Dublin City Centre.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,445 ✭✭✭crusd


    Same town. A reasonable starter home for the average person. At 220k or 4.6 times the average wage. It used to be 3x salary, then 3.5x salary as a guidance. Now some say 4-5. Rather than deal with the issue we are constantly resetting what is reasonable.

    https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/terraced-house-89-lissadyra-ballygaddy-road-tuam-co-galway/5810322

    The big problem is all the economic growth associated with increase in productivity has been diverted away from those who generated the productivity. For the house shown, for an average person in an average town the average salary should have increased with costs to 70k or the price should have remained at 135k



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,093 ✭✭✭spillit67


    Lovely bit of empty waffle but the fact is that SF’s policy relies on more of the same.

    They say they will build 125,000 homes, that leaves 175,000.

    Who funds this with a regulatory environment totally hostile?

    In terms of their 125,000 relying on local authorities. This works out at just over 300,000 per home.

    How does this work when it cost Dublin City Council over 500,000 to build 2 bedroom apartments on land they already own?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,093 ✭✭✭spillit67


    Why does a single person buy a three bedroom home?

    What was the interest rate when it was 3x?

    These are terrible examples you are bringing up here.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,980 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    That is not a reasonable expectation for a single person in their late 20's.

    Growing up in 1970s and 1980s Ireland, the reasonable expectation was for a damp tiny bedsit with shared bathroom facilities. Expectations have changed a lot, that is a significant part of the problem.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,980 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    The finiteness of land is the issue propping up prices, increasing the amount of land with quick access to where people want to go is crucial. Metrolink and Dart West are the two most crucial pieces of infrastructure to enable larger number of houses to be built



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,387 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    We need more high density developments.

    But no party will support it. Dublin is a low density city in terms of population.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_Union_cities_proper_by_population_density



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,980 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    That is where SF could have been really radical. Even on public housing, they could have said that we will demolish the existing old public apartment blocks in the city centre, treble the height of them, get rid of the parking places underground, and have extra public space as well as extra and better housing units.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,613 ✭✭✭Finty Lemon


    Has anyone read the full document yet? 20 pages in and it reads like a 3rd year college project. It's well padded out with aspirational paragraphs, but the genius policy shift is hard to find. The proposed changes to tendering processes look dodgy too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,392 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    Isn't that a bit of a silly response? Bit like yer one who comes on the radio, handing out school marks to the government every year.

    Then Harris reported as labelling it 'mean' later on. Just a lazy response. People want a change in this area, not more of the same and Harris is fooling no one.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,669 ✭✭✭Fionn1952


    Tuam's pricing would be somewhat inflated compared to similar sized towns across the country due to the significant cohort on well above average salaries working for Valeo; they employ about 10% of the entire population of Tuam.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭pureza


    Going on the rte drivetime piece,they want to take away up to 70k in first time buyer grants and whats left is a 4k grant ?

    They want to build 25 k social homes where the government own the ground and with limited resale ability just to other social home owners with a capped price,and they haven't got the banks to say they'll lend for that type of property yet?

    Holy moley,good luck with selling this,maybe rename it 'a home you don't own,' ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,099 ✭✭✭deirdremf


    Connor McCabe wrote a book ten or more years ago where he explained that very few houses were built in Ireland between 1890 and 1930 (or thereabouts) and then FF came to power in 1932 and began a vast programme of house-building and slum clearance.

    If SF managed to do the same today, I wonder would they get an 80-year go at government on the back of it?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,021 ✭✭✭pureza


    The EU wouldn't let them as we'd be breaching the CBD rules as well as with the cost of it raising government borrowing costs through the roof

    That ship sailed



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,099 ✭✭✭deirdremf


    I wonder if you have ever heard of ground rent? Every house built in Dublin - and I assume in other parts of Ireland too - had to pay an annual rent to the owner of the land their house was built on. Much of Dublin was paying rent to the Pembroke estate - i.e. the heirs of Strongbow, Richard de Clare - 800 years after he invaded Ireland. I'm not aware that this stopped many people from buying a house.

    I think a law was brought in in the 1970s that allowed you to buy out the owner for a fairly modest sum, which essentially put an end to that particular scam, btw.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,952 ✭✭✭Bobson Dugnutt


    I noticed the same thing with their last general election manifesto. It was filled with basic spelling and grammar errors. Tables with incorrect calculations. Dead links. Just all very amateur. Which is surprising considering they have more full time staff than all the other parties put together.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,282 ✭✭✭lightspeed


    General election likely around November but SF wait until just 2 months prior to release their nuclear solution to housing?

    Why did they keep a secret until now? It's as if they had no plan that could stack up to much scrutiny so tbey delayed compiling this manifesto until now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 704 ✭✭✭Mr Disco


    the shinnerbots seem watery and weak. They need to regather themselves for the bell will be tolling soon….



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,445 ✭✭✭crusd


    You know, being able to have a guest visit on occasion. Its not a unreasonable expectation for the average person who has established themselves in their chosen field.

    But the expectation on price has now been set so high and the expectation on what is reasonable accommodation so low, that ye cant even see it anymore



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,445 ✭✭✭crusd


    Ye are captured by this idea that all the value being diverted to the few is ok and people should be happy with it.

    Sure in the 70's wasn't a damp bedsit fine, at a time when we were a very poor country, so why would we not be happy with the same standard when we are one of the richest countries in the world. Sure we are happy out to have the fruits of our increased productivity and wealth go to the few. They deserve it sure.

    Also, the expectation of what you can get we your money has always been higher in a less desirable location that the more desirable, so what somebody can get for a certain amount in a provincial town could reasonably be expected to be more than in a large city.

    In addition, the mortgage affordability guidance changed not due to interest rates, but due to the fact that prices increased, and we had to do something to make sure the investor class and vested interest in the construction supply chains could continue to cream it. That you cant see a problem with the below chart is beyond comprehension.

    Full disclosure - my own property is valued 4 times the outstanding mortgage and twice what I paid so my own vested interest is the status quo. But the countries interest is that significant change is required.



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