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The accelerating fall in Sinn Féin support

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,935 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    …sme's are in serious trouble, truly exposed to market and state failures…..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,474 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    The economy can sustain the current rent levels - it is actually doing that. If it wasn't nobody would be renting those properties.

    What the economy cannot sustain is everybody who wants to live within ten minutes walk of Dublin City Centre being able to do so living in a three-bed semi-detatched and garden at a rent of less than €500 per month.

    There is nothing in the SF document that addresses the real challenges that we face. If we want housing to decrease in price, we need to do things like increase housing density inside the M50, improve public transport so that there are more options for places to live. Metrolink by itself, with proper house density lead to hundreds of thousands of homes within a short commute of the city centre, not to mention DART improvements. Changing one incentive scheme (First Home Scheme) for another - SF's weird land lease scheme - will not make any significant difference. It might change the cohort of people who avail of it, but it won't increase the number of houses being built, but because of its weirdness, it might decrease the number being built, and certainly decrease the numbers wishing to avail of a scheme.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,935 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    …its clearly obvious our economy, and in particular our societal entity of our economy, cannot sustain the rate of inflation of property and rental prices, this is clearly obvious!

    …this is ultimately the failure of modern political and economic ideological thinking, this is so serious now, even our opposition parties also dont know how to resolve this!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,474 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    No, it isn't clearly obvious. Land is finite, you cannot build a house where there is already a house, unless you knock it down. So absent some major regeneration, those that want to live in the Borough of Dun Laoghaire will face ever increasing rents and property prices because there are only so many houses to go around on that small bit of land.

    The only way to bring property prices and rental down is to build more services and better public transport to ensure that greater amounts of land have access to where people want to go.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,935 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    …and the disturbing thing is, many, well educated and intelligent people dont see this!

    …again, this rate of inflation is clearly not sustainable, it will not last, there will be a crash at some point in time, although that could be many years, even decades into the future, and its very likely pension funds will be pulled with it!

    …this is clearly obvious!

    …although i do agree with some of what you say



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,302 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    You may not realize this but there is a lot of the country outside of the M50, I'd say most of the population wouldn't be on or near the M50 from one month to the next. Probably have been in the dart less than 10 times in their life.

    Where did you pick 500 a month from.

    Update from your parochial 1980s view, that is a long time ago. Deal with the now.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,474 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    The rate of inflation is not sustainable, correct, but emigration will act as a natural correction to this, but the current level of rents and property prices in desirable areas will not decrease. It will never be cheap to buy in areas like Dublins 2,4 and 6, Dun Laoghaire, Blackrock, Howth etc.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,935 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    under financialised dynamics, which is what we have here, in regards property, the main contributing factor to price inflation is in fact the money supplied into the sector, i.e. the more money thats pushed into the market, the higher prices go, this is exactly what will happen again, with the governments current proposal, we has evidence for this here in ireland and in most other countries that have done so…..

    …i.e. market equilibrium is not a reality, it simply doesnt exist, particular under such dynamics….



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,368 ✭✭✭crusd


    It is unsustainable pretty much nationwide at the expense of other areas or a normal functioning economy.

    https://www.daft.ie/for-rent/house-5-amerillo-court-dublin-road-tuam-tuam-co-galway/5815942

    1,800pm for a two bed apartment in Tuam Co Galway. Not exactly Dun Laoghaire. A reasonable expectation for a single person in their late 20's or a single parent. That rent represents 66% of take home pay for the average person.

    To say its a Dublin city centre problem is disingenuous at best.



  • Registered Users Posts: 823 ✭✭✭spillit67


    Rents are.

    Dubious of house prices tbh. I think they’ve been fairly regulated to not go out of control.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 823 ✭✭✭spillit67




  • Registered Users Posts: 823 ✭✭✭spillit67


    Delete



  • Registered Users Posts: 823 ✭✭✭spillit67


    A three bed social house would be about those close to Dublin City Centre.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,368 ✭✭✭crusd


    Same town. A reasonable starter home for the average person. At 220k or 4.6 times the average wage. It used to be 3x salary, then 3.5x salary as a guidance. Now some say 4-5. Rather than deal with the issue we are constantly resetting what is reasonable.

    https://www.daft.ie/for-sale/terraced-house-89-lissadyra-ballygaddy-road-tuam-co-galway/5810322

    The big problem is all the economic growth associated with increase in productivity has been diverted away from those who generated the productivity. For the house shown, for an average person in an average town the average salary should have increased with costs to 70k or the price should have remained at 135k



  • Registered Users Posts: 823 ✭✭✭spillit67


    Lovely bit of empty waffle but the fact is that SF’s policy relies on more of the same.

    They say they will build 125,000 homes, that leaves 175,000.

    Who funds this with a regulatory environment totally hostile?

    In terms of their 125,000 relying on local authorities. This works out at just over 300,000 per home.

    How does this work when it cost Dublin City Council over 500,000 to build 2 bedroom apartments on land they already own?



  • Registered Users Posts: 823 ✭✭✭spillit67


    Why does a single person buy a three bedroom home?

    What was the interest rate when it was 3x?

    These are terrible examples you are bringing up here.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,474 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    That is not a reasonable expectation for a single person in their late 20's.

    Growing up in 1970s and 1980s Ireland, the reasonable expectation was for a damp tiny bedsit with shared bathroom facilities. Expectations have changed a lot, that is a significant part of the problem.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,474 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    The finiteness of land is the issue propping up prices, increasing the amount of land with quick access to where people want to go is crucial. Metrolink and Dart West are the two most crucial pieces of infrastructure to enable larger number of houses to be built



  • Registered Users Posts: 2,362 ✭✭✭landofthetree


    We need more high density developments.

    But no party will support it. Dublin is a low density city in terms of population.

    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_European_Union_cities_proper_by_population_density



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,474 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    That is where SF could have been really radical. Even on public housing, they could have said that we will demolish the existing old public apartment blocks in the city centre, treble the height of them, get rid of the parking places underground, and have extra public space as well as extra and better housing units.



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  • Registered Users Posts: 1,564 ✭✭✭Finty Lemon


    Has anyone read the full document yet? 20 pages in and it reads like a 3rd year college project. It's well padded out with aspirational paragraphs, but the genius policy shift is hard to find. The proposed changes to tendering processes look dodgy too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,392 ✭✭✭✭Furze99


    Isn't that a bit of a silly response? Bit like yer one who comes on the radio, handing out school marks to the government every year.

    Then Harris reported as labelling it 'mean' later on. Just a lazy response. People want a change in this area, not more of the same and Harris is fooling no one.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,639 ✭✭✭Fionn1952


    Tuam's pricing would be somewhat inflated compared to similar sized towns across the country due to the significant cohort on well above average salaries working for Valeo; they employ about 10% of the entire population of Tuam.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,882 ✭✭✭pureza


    Going on the rte drivetime piece,they want to take away up to 70k in first time buyer grants and whats left is a 4k grant ?

    They want to build 25 k social homes where the government own the ground and with limited resale ability just to other social home owners with a capped price,and they haven't got the banks to say they'll lend for that type of property yet?

    Holy moley,good luck with selling this,maybe rename it 'a home you don't own,' ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,984 ✭✭✭deirdremf


    Connor McCabe wrote a book ten or more years ago where he explained that very few houses were built in Ireland between 1890 and 1930 (or thereabouts) and then FF came to power in 1932 and began a vast programme of house-building and slum clearance.

    If SF managed to do the same today, I wonder would they get an 80-year go at government on the back of it?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,882 ✭✭✭pureza


    The EU wouldn't let them as we'd be breaching the CBD rules as well as with the cost of it raising government borrowing costs through the roof

    That ship sailed



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,984 ✭✭✭deirdremf


    I wonder if you have ever heard of ground rent? Every house built in Dublin - and I assume in other parts of Ireland too - had to pay an annual rent to the owner of the land their house was built on. Much of Dublin was paying rent to the Pembroke estate - i.e. the heirs of Strongbow, Richard de Clare - 800 years after he invaded Ireland. I'm not aware that this stopped many people from buying a house.

    I think a law was brought in in the 1970s that allowed you to buy out the owner for a fairly modest sum, which essentially put an end to that particular scam, btw.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,437 ✭✭✭Bobson Dugnutt


    I noticed the same thing with their last general election manifesto. It was filled with basic spelling and grammar errors. Tables with incorrect calculations. Dead links. Just all very amateur. Which is surprising considering they have more full time staff than all the other parties put together.

    Being young is a great advantage, since we see the world from a new perspective and we are not afraid to make radical changes - Greta Thunburg



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,274 ✭✭✭lightspeed


    General election likely around November but SF wait until just 2 months prior to release their nuclear solution to housing?

    Why did they keep a secret until now? It's as if they had no plan that could stack up to much scrutiny so tbey delayed compiling this manifesto until now.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 704 ✭✭✭Mr Disco


    the shinnerbots seem watery and weak. They need to regather themselves for the bell will be tolling soon….



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,368 ✭✭✭crusd


    You know, being able to have a guest visit on occasion. Its not a unreasonable expectation for the average person who has established themselves in their chosen field.

    But the expectation on price has now been set so high and the expectation on what is reasonable accommodation so low, that ye cant even see it anymore



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,368 ✭✭✭crusd


    Ye are captured by this idea that all the value being diverted to the few is ok and people should be happy with it.

    Sure in the 70's wasn't a damp bedsit fine, at a time when we were a very poor country, so why would we not be happy with the same standard when we are one of the richest countries in the world. Sure we are happy out to have the fruits of our increased productivity and wealth go to the few. They deserve it sure.

    Also, the expectation of what you can get we your money has always been higher in a less desirable location that the more desirable, so what somebody can get for a certain amount in a provincial town could reasonably be expected to be more than in a large city.

    In addition, the mortgage affordability guidance changed not due to interest rates, but due to the fact that prices increased, and we had to do something to make sure the investor class and vested interest in the construction supply chains could continue to cream it. That you cant see a problem with the below chart is beyond comprehension.

    Full disclosure - my own property is valued 4 times the outstanding mortgage and twice what I paid so my own vested interest is the status quo. But the countries interest is that significant change is required.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,368 ✭✭✭crusd


    8 billion budget surplus expected this year. Debt to GNI down to 72% (Debt to GDP at 41% but ye will no doubt poo poo that even though the associated corporate tax benefits are very real).



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,368 ✭✭✭crusd


    All grants do when there is a limit to supply is increase the price. Grants in the absence of supply is just a transfer of wealth from taxpayer to developer / landowner / investors.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,474 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    That graph by itself shows that we are only back to 2005, below the 2008 peak.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,474 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    It is not really a silly response. I heard SF spokespersons and indeed their supporters on here going on about the unprecedented length of the policy paper. When I looked at it, the padding was incredible, with actually only about ten pages containing any policy. #

    This is the Current Affairs forum, so poking fun at an inadequate policy paper by comparing it to a Leaving Cert project (which is about the level it is pitched at) is par for the course. There is no thinking through of the implications of the proposals, the costs are understated, the obstacles are underestimated, and it is notable that you don't analyse or criticise the substance of any of my comments, you just throw a jibe at the style of my post.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,474 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Remind me again of the attitude of the Irish population and electorate to paying ground rents? Does re-introducing a hated policy from the past make sense?

    How is it different from the scheme where the government owns 30% of the equity of the house? Not very much different, except the SF scheme places much more restrictions on what a houseowner can do, with the house only being sold to another eligible purchaser.

    The SF proposals to cut the thresholds for inheritance tax and increase the rate will have an impact as well. Why would people buy one of these houses when their children may have to sell the house in a restricted way because of SF's red tape and because they have to pay inheritance tax?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    I own my own house. But I'm not obsessed as to it's value. Most are the same, our house is not a trading commodity. In the 90/00s we got sucked into that, trading up every few years, that's over. So if any political party proposes a scheme whereby the supply meets demand and house prices stagnate, I'm not fussed. BTW a major reason for high house prices is the spec nowadays. One cannot, because of that compare house build costs of 40 and 50 years ago. There is no magic tap to supply.



  • Registered Users Posts: 823 ✭✭✭spillit67


    A 2 bed is deluded. That is a luxury at that age and for that purpose.

    A studio or one bed, agreed.

    The median wage is 51k in Galway, so more like 48k for someone that age. That’s a net or €3,150 so on the basis of 25% to 33% on rent, I would say about 800-1,050 is a good goal for studios in that county.



  • Registered Users Posts: 823 ✭✭✭spillit67


    They also want more hereditary privilege in handing down social houses by generation.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 8,975 ✭✭✭blackwhite


    Social housing no longer based on need, but based on who your parents are (or maybe how loyal they are to the party)



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 22,264 ✭✭✭✭ELM327


    That graph also ignores other factors. For example, in the mid 90s onwards house prices increased in part due to more families with 2 incomes compared to one.



  • Registered Users Posts: 823 ✭✭✭spillit67


    I am not an expert on it but I believe you can hand it down now.

    I am assuming the justification is that it holds communities together but I am dubious why we have special classes of citizenry for some things and not others.

    Reminds me of how the party who hate the monarchy seem to think that the great grand nephew of a 1916 Proclamation signatory should have a special say in things like Moore Street.



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,564 ✭✭✭Finty Lemon


    Enoch has stolen Eoins limelight already. I doubt SF are too worried, they are probably glad to have the big launch pass without too much scrutiny.

    It is a difficult read, very unclear, lacking detail and full of padding.

    It seems that EOB had an 80 page target to meet and he kept going until he reached it.

    C grade for a good effort



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 69,612 ✭✭✭✭L1011


    You can "hand down" social housing only if the person taking on the tenancy was actually already living there, recorded on the tenancy, and contributing to the rent calculation for a reasonable period of time beforehand

    You can't just will the tenancy to someone.

    I believe some councils will also reserve the right to right-size the property on handover, e.g. move someone to a one bedroom flat; but never heard of it actually happening.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,368 ✭✭✭crusd


    😂 Yes, 2005 is the standard of affordability when we were in the middle of an irrational housing bubble 😂



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,474 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    SF have TDs availing of this facility already.



  • Registered Users Posts: 823 ✭✭✭spillit67


    There isn’t good data on median wages then but the average was €45k then. It’s now €54k.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,368 ✭✭✭crusd


    So not based on the actual value of the asset but on the maximum tolerable by those struggling to afford?

    What has happened is asset prices have increased due to lack of supply and everyone else in the supply chain has increased their prices to grab some of the gravy train.

    But you know lets have a few more grants to make sure the snouts in the trough can get more wealth transferred from the ordinary person



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,368 ✭✭✭crusd


    And the chart is relative to average wage, not absolute value



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