The decline of FG?

So ‘variety’ explains why they finished below the party they promised to be different to and are now in coalition with?
Not buying that tbh.
Strategically they knew they needed FF to continue the tradition of the power swapping between them.
Strategically they didn’t factor in a sudden rise in an opposition party, panic stations were manned when that happened. Promises never to do it or to never allow a FFer at the wheels of Finance quickly forgotten by both of them.
They might, just might get by the electorate again but the electorate will tire of them and if they haven’t distinguished themselves as separate offerings it ain’t gonna be pretty.

Nope I read it it specifically said can't afford two items from the list. They didn't even do their own research, just drew their findings from a CSO survey, meanwhile the SVP noted a 6% drop in numbers asking for help with the return to school.

Yerrah,you only buy one thing as evidenced by 60,000 posts on the topic

We heard you the first time

Other opinions do vary

You said:

That report is one of the biggest piles of dog turd I've ever read. 20% of kids here don't have a warm coat or 2 pairs of shoes?

Absolute nonsense.

I replied that is not what the report stated and outlined how ESRI define material deprivation in this report affecting almost a quarter of a million children in this country and now you are agreeing that it referred to families not being able to afford 2 items from the list of essentials?

but the 77 seats they won in 2011 is way beyond their ‘natural historical level,’ even more so given there are so many more options for voters than there used to be. Given also they were implementing austerity measures, I would question whether there was any way they could have retained anything like that 36% at the next election.

In blanch’s curious world losing 10 seats is a feather in the cap. 😁

Comical Ali stuff.

The halving of SF's vote in the recent local elections must be biting deep.

More from blanch’s curious world a gain of 20 seats is bad. 😁😁

A political party wreck the country, you come in on a wave of 36% and blow it all within one term of office. Ff finish 1% behind you. The strategic geniuses then decide, let’s get closer to them.

Poverty and deprivation are closely related and should not be as prevalent in a developed country such as Ireland.

I don't have a heavy coat, am I deprived?

Again other opinions vary

A lot of votes were loaned to FG to turf out the incumbents in 2011 and it worked

A lot of votes were loaned it seems in 2020 to SF doubling their vote to no avail,how many loaned votes does current polling suggest SF have lost and they never having been in government at all?

People in glass houses etc

Opinions may vary, but facts don't.

In the general election of 2020, SF got 24.5% of the vote, and failed to go into government.

In the local election of 2024, SF got 11.8% of the vote.

In the European election of 2024, SF got 11.1% of the vote.

Their European election performance has declined two elections in a row, from 19.8% under Gerry Adams in 2014 to 11.8% with MLMD's first go to 11.1% in 2024.

Them's the facts, that is what a decline looks like.

I don't believe that poverty is accurately measured.

blanch the point made about FG’s decline has nothing to do with comparisons to how others are doing or did do in elections.

FG’s vote under Garret was 44% Enda got 36% and lost 11% of it and Leo managed 20%

They lost votes in the local and EU elections too.

We routinely get all sorts of suggestions about what SF need to do to improve their vote, not least from you. Ditch Gerry, ditch MLMD, turn their back on their past, etc etc.

What do FG need to do to arrest the decline in their vote and end the dependence on FF who might try to distinguish themselves as a different party at any time.

The funny thing is,they appear to have done something to arrest it already,you know like dump their leader? You'd swear by you they were in mortal decline or something

Problem for people of your persuasion is,it's blatantly obvious they're not,no matter how much you say it?

Cue...protest 'I never used the words mortal decline' or some such diversion tactic nonsense, like the protest earlier from you about the how is everything so terrible when everything is so good,question I posed to you and you didn't want to answer,upthread

Their vote isn't 24% though. That's as flimsy as SF's 35% was.

As @pureza has mentioned 'mortal decline' what actual vote percentage is mortal decline for FG?

*Pretty poor ambition there BTW. If the goal is as suspected by some and known by many 'just keep the shinners out' and cling to power with who ever, I personally don't think that is sustainable tbh.

You did not answer

You just said you didn't say things were terrible and deflected like mad in some effort to avoid why things are so good

Lets be clear Fine Gael had 27% of the vote in 1989

35 years later,4 or 5 months before an election,after 13 years in government,polls have them at 24% and poised to be returned,fierce decline that I don't think?

Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael working together is a seismic change in the way this country was governed by the way,no two ways about it and if its what the public want,it will be with both eyes open now which is democracy isn t it

The biggest mistake in this thread and some of the others is the title

Titles should by virtue of whats inevitable,have a set template "lets bash [insert party name here]"

You did not answer

You just said you didn't say things were terrible and deflected like mad in some effort to avoid why things are so good

Yeh I did, in the very next post.

I never said things are ‘terrible’. In order not to address the point you made that up. Some things are demonstrably terrible and continue to be..

https://www.boards.ie/discussion/comment/122589539/#Comment_122589539

IMO the coming together of FF and FG will see a continued degradation of their core votes. I think as demonstrated that is happening already.
The thread title, snowflake considerations aside (in the context of some thread titles seen here) is perfectly valid. In actual voting terms FG's vote has been in decline for 30 years. The combined vote of two similar.

The reason we need to see an actual vote to garner where the FF/FG merger/coalition is at (all here seem to accept that this is in fact a merger now) is polls are one thing but an actual election and delivering that poll percentage is another. Was it Albert who said 'it's the small things that slip you up'.

If there is more to come on waste and ministerial incompetence I'd wager that 4% gain could easily be wiped out.

I’m sure the thread title does grate if you are in denial of the black and white facts.

Sure change it or close it, see will that alter reality.

You do seem able to ignore fact. Do you accept the factual evidence that I answered your question on how things were?

If the goal is as suspected by some and known by many 'just keep the shinners out' and cling to power with who ever, I personally don't think that is sustainable tbh.

But what political arrangements are 'sustainable' in the long or even medium term anyway? We are coming to the end of a second term of government based around FF-FG agreement. If as is looking increasingly likely FFG secure a narrow majority of seats in the upcoming GE that will set up them up well to retain power in the Dail after that as they can potentially tap pretty much the entire rest of the Dail bar SF and the Hard Left when putting together a government.

TBH that's just another way of saying the same thing. The percentage vote that FG can capture is in decline. From 44% under Garret to 20% under Leo.

a combination of both of them designed simply to hold onto power. That, I am positive, will not be sustainable and at some point the electorate will tire of it.

But this still isn't saying anything: electorates tire of all political parties and alliances at some point. I've sketched out what looks to me a plausible scenario of FF & FG serving two further terms in some form of partnership, taking FG up close to 25 years in consecutive power if those governments go anywhere near full term. IMO if they achieve that FG's decision to pursue alliance with FF from 2016 will have been entirely vindicated, irrespective of what comes after…