The decline of FG?

I agree it became largely a sham animosity decades ago.
Problem is since 2011 more and more are seeing it. In power separately, in C&S or coalition they offer the same thing. They are going looking for something else.

You keep harping on about the fall in FG's seat total as though that were the sole measure of a party's performance but that's not how politics works. For most of it's 'wilderness years' between 1987 and 2011 FG actually had more seats than in the last Dail, let alone the current one. Does that mean they were actually doing better during that period than they have been over the last decade?

The reality of politics pretty much anywhere is that the longer a party is in government, the harder it has to run to stand still. If Simon Harris leads FG back into government after the next election in some sort of roughly equal partnership with FF, IMO that's the most that could be realistically be expected of him at this stage in FG's development.

They were put back into power on 36% in 2011 and never got near that again in a GE. 25% I think in 2016 just ahead of FF.
I agree with the longevity in power point but they declined within one term in office by 11 percent.

Ah, still in denial that the local election results meant anything.

On housing, all the numbers are pointing upwards in terms of housing completions, number of first-time buyers etc. Given the numbers coming from Ukraine, it is actually amazing that the homelessness numbers aren't worse.

As for child poverty, this government has been doing things like subsidised childcare and hotmeals in schools instead of the direct cash payments which were being spent on child benefit day specials in the pubs and bookies. Given the level of direct cash benefits for kids on social welfare and for child benefit, back to school allowance, special payments etc, no child should be in poverty.

You are mixing up poverty with deprivation of two items out of a list. They are not the same thing.

I agree a lot of good work going on and there are no quick fixes unfortunately but on the housing issue in particular, will people going to the polls be thankful in government policy over last 5 to 10 years or frustrated/angry?

Goes without saying there should be no child poverty in a developed county such as this but SVP have given a figure of 250,000 children living in deprivation currently.

SVP have also said that the numbers contacting them about back-to-school is down 6%. You can never eliminate child poverty because you can never eliminate bad parenting, and direct provision can only do so much.

The work that O'Gorman has done on childcare, the other initiatives around hot meals in schools and free school books are bringing our non-monetary benefits into line with the rest of Europe, at the same time when our monetary benefits are amongst the highest.

Yes good to see a reduction in calls regarding help with back to school, often a very stressful time for parents but SVP have also stated in their Pre-Budget Submission that there are 250,000 children currently living in enforced deprivation and 913,000 people are going without basics:

https://www.svp.ie/news/svp-vision-for-2030-prompts-recommendations-for-next-government/

Yeh I agree. Opinions vary. So what? It’s a discussion forum with many opinions. Funny yours needs SF to make sense of things or is it look over there and not at us?
I think SF have very little to do wirh FG’s decline as stated.

With respect I don't find this comment pleasant or funny given the topic being discussed and the large numbers of the population affected as cited by ESRI and SVP.

SF were mentioned to make a legitimate point,the folly of their no 1 supporter here going on about vote loss by a government party during the worst downturn & austerity ever vs what seems to be happening to the chief opposition party after 5 more years of government by their opponents,which is a worse political performance,its all about context?

As I said glass houses etc

FG have been in Government for almost 14 years now. They will still be in Government after the next election. The reality is that almost a quarter of the electorate think they represent their views. Moderate centrist politics with absolutely massive tax revenue that will be used for things like pensions and social welfare as our overall population profile continues to age.

end the dependence on FF

Why should they seek to do this? What is wrong with an ongoing loose alliance with FF from FG's perspective?

might try to distinguish themselves as a different party at any time.

Well FF did their level best to do this in the run-up to the last election and look where they ended up

Best way for FG to ensure FF 'stay true' is maximise the combined party seat total, ideally securing a majority of Dail seats between (which looks eminently achievable in the upcoming election) and concomitantly make it as difficult as possible for FF & SF to form a government.

So after nearly 14 years in power and it base dropping it looks like the FG vote is stabilising and could be back to 2016 levels. +/-3% means it could be 27%..

At 24% with a FF at 20% it means combined the pair are within the grasp of an over majority in November and SF will spend another 5 years moaning. The only goid thing is MLMD will be gone....then again the beardless hate to admit they got it wrong.

I did answer you.
I said in my opinion things are not terrible but several key things are and FG FF and GRs have demonstrated adequately they can't or lack the will to tackle them.

Interesting panel on Anton Savage’s show this morning Kevin Doyle was asked why FF and FG are doing so well. A lot of it is simply the rejection of SF’s failed state and banana republic narrative that they have been pushing online for over a decade now. People simply don’t believe them.

Looks like another 5 years without SF in Government. Another half decade for the lads who did time behind the wire, on the blanket, in South Armagh.

Fair enough on the title of the thread, is it referring to opinion polls or actual elections? If it is elections it probably accurate, FG lost seats at the recent local election where most other parties made gains. For general elections, FG has lost a significant number of seats in each subsequent election since entering government in 2011.

I think my comment is valid regarding the thread title,this is the Fine Gael bashing thread with various forays into it by the Sinn Féin haters

It's all just noise really

I think also my comment regarding whats been happening in voting over the last 40 years is the introduction of options

Variety

Whats more interesting is the centre,steady as you go nature of the vote in that its the centre variety of options that are doing best isn't it including FF ,FG and their various connected/related gene pools

Anyway,I'll leave ye all at it,4's enough to play this posting tat tit without me for now ,have fun lads

FG core vote was always 20-25%, they seldom went significantly below it in the last 100 years. At time they popped above it to form coalition government's.

In 2011 after the crash it recieved a significant number of FF/floating votes. In the 80's it was the main beneficiary if the floating vote, this transfered to Dick Spring labour party in the 90's.

They transferred back to FFfor the noughtirs. After the 2010 crash a significant cohort of not just the floating but a FF vote as well transfered to Labour and FG. I'm 2016 FG held there core and a bit with it as FF recovered. SF and Ind took the fickle floating vote and held it in the 2020 election. FG held its core more or less and FF took some of its vote back. FF will not recover to its hey day of a 35%+ core vote but will hold a center left core of 20ish% for tge next election

Now as the parties stand it looks like FG will hit the 25%. Not only that FF/FG gene pool hold another 10-15% of the vote. I be watching these transfers I'm the election to see do they transfer to FG/FF or to the left.

At 45% combined and with the left splitting a 40% vote into 5-6 factions FF/FG will hit an overall majority they will hit 90 seats

SF will probably drop 5+ seats and it could be significantly worse if the stand too many candidates

But what political arrangements are 'sustainable' in the long or even medium term anyway? 

I am one of those lost voters. And I have not ruled out voting for them again.
What I won't vote for is a combination of both of them designed simply to hold onto power. That, I am positive, will not be sustainable and at some point the electorate will tire of it.

BS. The 44% under Garrett Fitzgerald was a one off anomaly. Before that FG hovered between 20-30%. They never before attained 44% and never did again and at 44% I think could barely form a government.

Can we say that SF are In permanent decline because they were at 35% and now back below 20%.

You have too much time on your hand stop sitting inside go foa walk and a pint.

Anomally or not, they were able to attract that vote.

FG also recently overtook SF to be the most popular party amongst 18-34 year olds. An engaged and highly educated electorate don’t fall for fence sitting populism and the banana republic narrative being espoused by some of the parties in opposition.