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The accelerating fall in Sinn Féin support

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Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,445 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    We need to at least double houses built per year to meet ongoing demand and eat in to pent up demand.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,445 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    This is not a new thing, what you are in about is a different matter.

    Vast swathes of Cork and Dublin had houses built in them were the land was not owned by the house owner or developer.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,907 ✭✭✭pureza


    Good luck with the paperwork with the bank on that one,most individual issues eventually get resolved but if I waltz into my bank asking for a loan on land my brother owns,you know what they'd say don't you



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,206 ✭✭✭hometruths


    And good luck to you if you waltz into a bank saying I can't afford to pay full whack for this house, but don't worry my brother is buying 30% of it, will you finance the rest of it?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    Think I saw a headline today that, stamp duty was being doubled on investment buyers of houses.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,907 ✭✭✭pureza


    You didn't answer my question and tellingly neither have the banks yet for SF have they ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,099 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    We still need to build more because the investment fund homes hit the rental market.

    They do push up sales prices, because the homes are being diverted away from the sales market, but they still provide valuable stock to the rental market.

    The point some people miss is that alot of the private homes wouldnt get built in the first place, were they not financed by the investment funds; This is another problem with the SF plan.

    SF want to stop investment funds owning properties & want to squeeze the funds out of home ownership, yet the majority of new homes under the SF scheme are private homes!

    Guess who finances the majority of private homes? Yep, Investment funds.

    There's no way you can build 40k + private homes per year if you freeze out investment funds from ownership.

    The numbers SF are talking about delivering just dont stack up.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,808 ✭✭✭✭Water John


    The build number needed has no relation to who owns them. Someone is living in every house. This is a question of whether we want to bias their use to home owners? We probably need between 50 and 60K/year, to balance supply with demand. Not sure how big a problem there is, outside of the major cities? In the last 2/3 years their is a boom in the number being built in towns and villages. The only problem, is the price of them.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,206 ✭✭✭hometruths




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,907 ✭✭✭pureza


    Will I get a mortgage on a site where my bother wont sell me the land



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,206 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Under normal circumstances you'd probably have to jump through a few extra hoops, but if your brother is Minister for Finance, and he really wants you to get that mortgage, yes you'll get the mortgage, no problem.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,907 ✭✭✭pureza


    In other words No,do you see the problem now with the SF plan ?



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,206 ✭✭✭hometruths


    You seem to think the analogy of your brother's land is a meaningful one. I think it is ridiculous.

    So oddly enough I still don't see the problem with the plan. We'll just have to agree to disagree.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,978 ✭✭✭deezell


    Suppose if a developer offered to build houses on land without paying the €40k per site to the owner, so he just gets pays or his construction costs. The owner has a future stake in the house. Would the bank issue a mortgage on this joint ownership? Could the land owner exclude the unpaid for site as security on the mortgage? I doubt the bank would agree. They'd want a clear joint tenancy on the registration, with percentage ownership from the outset, and in the event of a default, or price collapse or negative equity, the landowner, and householder lose out. So who's going to agree to a deferred payment for a site? Who's going to approve a mortgage unless the site is part of the equity. A deferred contract of sale of the to the householder in 25 years leaves the landowner liable for CGT immediately, not when he cashes in. Its all Sinnfenomics, make it up as you go along. Property and house transactions are the way they are for a reason. They work. Market forces and prices have nothing to do with the rules of ownership, equity and liability. Something dreamt up in a pub in Drumcondra is not going to trump hundreds of years of legal evolution.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,907 ✭✭✭pureza




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 14,445 ✭✭✭✭Danzy


    It would be but it's talking out your hole to be blunt. .

    The house im currently in was bought with a mortgage and the land in someone elses title.

    You are making it out like this is something that is unfamiliar to banks.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,907 ✭✭✭pureza


    You're a SF supporter though,so you would say that

    The rest of us deal in reality

    A bank used be able to work on a solicitors guarantee but not anymore,so I guess it's you thats talking out of their hole

    Even working on a solicitors guarantee though eventually has to be cleared up



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,638 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Not being able to repossess them in the event of a default increases the risk to the bank. The bank can derisk by only offering mortgages at 2.5xincome instead of 4xincome. The scheme would be dead in the water.



  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,206 ✭✭✭hometruths


    Not being able to repossess them in the event of a default increases the risk to the bank.

    🤣

    You may have misunderstood my earlier point about the irony of this argument, so I will spell it out.

    Since about 2009 government policy has deliberately been to make it almost impossible for a bank to repossess a PDH mortgage in default.

    This is why currently, even with a booming property market, booming economy and nearly full employment, nearly 7% of mortgages are in default, with very little if any facing any real threat of repossession. Some of these are over 10 years in arrears.

    Yet all of a sudden everybody is worried about the increased risk to banks because they won't be able to repossess a property?! Give me a break.

    Many people are talking out of both sides of their mouth on this issue, not least the minister for housing.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,638 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    I didn't miss the irony, but even if the bank currently has a high risk of not being able to repossess, the SF Scheme increases that risk even further.

    The point I make is that increased risk is increased risk, no matter how high or low current risk is. That affects bank pricing.



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  • Registered Users, Subscribers, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,206 ✭✭✭hometruths


    It not currently a question of if there is a risk that they are unable to repossess!

    The banks are currently unable to repossess properties because the government does not want them to repossess properties.

    That seems unlikely to change anytime soon, no matter who is in government. The banks are realistic enough to know that and will lend for whatever government scheme is in operation.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭Bobson Dugnutt


    Makings of a major scandal brewing in SF. A very very senior member of SF gave a reference to a press officer of there’s who was under investigation for grooming children. Seems the attempted to cover it up.

    Being young is a great advantage, since we see the world from a new perspective and we are not afraid to make radical changes - Greta Thunburg



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,978 ✭✭✭deezell


    Get their own house in order before they can think of ordering Sinn Fein houses for the masses. They even proposed a state run building department to construct them. That would be the OPW/co. Councils. Let's see, ignoring the bike shed and security hut, they spent ,€440,000 per 'house' for prefab garden rooms, tiny drop in structures, when you'd expect a full sized 4 bed proper home in Mahon for this. 3 beds there sell for €200k . I reckon Sinn Feins social building department would run to a €Million per unit if the Ukrainian sheds at €440,000 are anything to go by. Never let government get involved in building homes, just buy off the market.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,073 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    …we ve been doing the whole market based approach for decades now, strangely enough, this is exactly why we are where we are, as its primarily a financialised approach, whereby the overall priority is to maximize financial outcomes, i.e. keep pushing prices up, this approach has yielded the exact same outcomes in every country that has tried, i.e. hyper inflated prices, highly dysfunctional markets and serious supply problems, so if you want this to continue, rock on!

    oh and there isnt gonna be a sf government anytime soon, so on we go with the financialised, market based approach!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,978 ✭✭✭deezell


    3 bed terrace house in Mahon, €200k.

    2 bed Garden prefab in Mahon, €440k.

    I know which market model I'd prefer.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 21,247 ✭✭✭✭Ash.J.Williams


    The government are milking this paedo story effectively after wasting billions of tax payer money , they are getting away with murder



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,978 ✭✭✭deezell


    I haven't seen a Government press release about it, only reports in the newspapers, and here of course. Could you post a link to the Government statements on this.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 98 ✭✭Dr Robert


    It's a big story tbf.

    Do people want to to vote for a party with links to paedos? Doubt it.

    I think people want more information on it and to have it totally explained. Same goes for any party with such a big story.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,569 ✭✭✭Bobson Dugnutt


    It’s possible to report on more than one story. I think the 4th case of its kind involving child abuse and a SF employee/activist (that we know of) is newsworthy. Child abuse is disgusting.

    Being young is a great advantage, since we see the world from a new perspective and we are not afraid to make radical changes - Greta Thunburg



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 98 ✭✭Dr Robert


    4th? Ffs.

    This needs a bigger investigation surely?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,099 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    The govt arent trying to pump the value of property.

    The price increase is down to supply not meeting demand and, at the same time, the net wealth of irish households rising to a record 1.1 trillion.

    Its also worth noting that the net wealth of the poorest households has increased ten fold in the last decade.

    We do need to build more homes, but the country will build more homes under an FFG govt than it would via a SF led term.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,073 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    …and again, wrong, our governments, both current and past, have been doing all they can to inflate the price of property, this is generally called financialisation of property markets, of which most advanced economies, including ireland, have been engaging in for many decades now…

    ….under such conditions, the state steps back from providing critical needs such as housing, and promote other major parts of the economy, in particular whats typically called the fire sectors(finance, insurance and real estate), to provide this critical need, hence why we ve seen such a rapid growth of such sectors in ireland over the last few decades.

    ..from this approach, you ll find that most countries that engaged in this approach have resulted in almost the exact same outcomes, in the form of hyper inflated prices, highly dysfunctional markets and serious supply problems, as its primarily a demand driven approach, i.e. by increasing the money supply into such markets, in particular the credit money supply, which is created and provided by the finance sector itself, hence why we ve seen a rapid growth in private debt across most advanced economies, including ireland.

    ….this is turn causes what economists call a 'rent seeking' dynamic, whereby more and more income is used and required to service such debts, and less and less is available for other economic activities, which in turn generally leads to slowing economic activity and ultimately a stagnant economy, which is the most likely outcome for ireland eventually.

    …other known demand based policies such as first time buyers is also known to help inflate prices, also experienced in other countries such as australia as well as here in ireland…

    interesting you mention irelands 1.1 trillion household wealth, yes exactly, this is exactly what such policies do, i.e. inflate the value of assets such as property and land, i.e. all good for current owners of such assets, not so good for current none owners of such, i.e. younger generations!

    we ve no clue what would happen under a sf government, and we may never find out, but we know full well whats gonna happen under further ffg ones, i.e. further price inflation, and rising supply to be fair….

    ..so again, you re completely wrong!



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,978 ✭✭✭deezell


    You can have houses for less than half current prices as long you don't mind stagnant or falling growth, high unemployment, higher interest rates, out of work tradesmen, emigration, and the knock on effects of this on the rest of the economy as demand for everything falls. It's called a recession.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,022 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    As a state builder it would also be infested with public sector unions so anyone who pays taxes out there get ready to bend over.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,099 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Conspiracy theory nonsense.

    Prices go up because a lot of people have a lot of money and can afford to pay increased prices; Hence the record household wealth figures and the strongest jobs market in the history of the state.

    We have seen a 50% rise in the number of households earning over 100k since 2022. The spending power of the population has increased significantly and of course, this drives prices upwards.

    70% of adults own their own home in Ireland. In other words, most people are able to purchase a home if they want to.

    There are still people priced out and there are also people who can afford a home but haven't managed to buy one because of lack of supply. We very much need to see supply increasing and it is doing so.

    We should be seeing 50k new homes delivered from next year onwards and that will help supply considerably.

    Almost 26k people got a mortgage in 2023, thats the highest number of new mortgage holders for 16 years. Mortgage drawdowns are on track to be even higher this year.

    On housing, we are moving in the right direction, though the govt needs to keep driving the current momentum upwards and push us past the 50k new homes per year mark from 2025 onwards.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 418 ✭✭Raichų


    https://m.independent.ie/irish-news/michelle-oneill-apologises-as-charity-that-employed-michael-mcmonagle-says-it-contacted-sinn-fein-14-months-ago-over-references/a1456674516.html

    I’d love to see her wriggle out of this one. Claiming not to be aware he was working for the British Heart Foundation despite being photographed feet away at an event in 2023. Give me strength.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 98 ✭✭Dr Robert


    Sounds like a bad cover up.

    Sinn Féin are all over the place. The paedophile links are going to stick if they don't deal with this quick.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,825 ✭✭✭extra-ordinary_


    "The govt arent trying to pump the value of property.

    The price increase is down to supply not meeting demand"

    That's the same thing surely?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,978 ✭✭✭deezell


    Same thing as what? When products become scarce for whatever reason, price tends to rise. You can trade on the world markets for orange juice, pork ribs even. If these rise in price, it's the Government's fault?



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 418 ✭✭Raichų


    day after day they just look more incompetent.

    Told he was being investigated by police, suspended from work, but when he resigned/was sacked they didn’t care to revoke his security pass? I mean Jesus.

    Only for Stormont finding out the other day it would still be active and usable.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,099 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Nope. The govt dont control the number of private properties built. They can make the landscape favourable, but they are not in control.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 635 ✭✭✭InAtFullBack


    Allow me to pick this mostly nonsense post apart:

    Conspiracy theory nonsense.

    Prices go up because a lot of people have a lot of money and can afford to pay increased prices; Hence the record household wealth figures and the strongest jobs market in the history of the state.

    Most people don't 'have a lot of money' - the banks do. They lend to people who don't as much as they lend to people who do. People who do have alot of money will actively borrow and buy in an increasing value market because they bet that the value of their purchase increases faster than the current interest rate.

    We have seen a 50% rise in the number of households earning over 100k since 2022. The spending power of the population has increased significantly and of course, this drives prices upwards.

    €100,000 per annum is by no means anymore a 'rich' household income when viewed through the purchasing power of that €100k in Ireland in today's climate. In effect, many are earning a bit more - everyone is paying much more.

    70% of adults own their own home in Ireland. In other words, most people are able to purchase a home if they want to.

    A shocking statistic which underpins the continuous decline of Irish home ownership across the general population - if 70% is something 'to be celebrated' you ought to look at where we've come from as a nation on that stat. The trend is clearly downwards.

    There are still people priced out and there are also people who can afford a home but haven't managed to buy one because of lack of supply. We very much need to see supply increasing and it is doing so.

    We should be seeing 50k new homes delivered from next year onwards and that will help supply considerably.

    It's not acceptable that any person working in gainful full-time employment cannot afford to purchase their own home, let alone the gumption that it's acceptable for a working couple working in full-time gainful employment cannot afford to purchase their own home - even if, and often are, state employees in gainful full-time employment.

    Almost 26k people got a mortgage in 2023, thats the highest number of new mortgage holders for 16 years. Mortgage drawdowns are on track to be even higher this year.

    Whoopdeedo - we have a much bigger population now, so these figures are meaningless.

    On housing, we are moving in the right direction, though the govt needs to keep driving the current momentum upwards and push us past the 50k new homes per year mark from 2025 onwards.

    We are far from 'moving in the right direction' unless that direction is to keep property prices artificially high, rent prices also artificially high and burden the lucky few who are handed a house in a will only to be effectively forced to sell the property to hand over exorbitant tax to a government that continually shafts them - yet same govt tells them 'we're moving in the [right direction]' That is called urinating down ones back and telling them it's raining.

    It's all a God damn ponzi scheme - seen it all before mate.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,099 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Yawn. You sound like a 5G covid conspiracist.

    Household wealth is at record levels and is now over 1.1 trillion. Nought to do with banks. The clue is in the name. Household wealth.

    100k may not be considered rich, but if the number of households earning 100k+ has increased by 50% in just 2 years, then there are obviously a lot more people earning more money and mortgage capacity is GREATLY increased.

    It is well established that rising incomes in ireland are driving property price growth; how could they not. Plenty of online articles on same if you still can't put 2 and 2 together.

    Home ownership has increased every year since 2020, that's called an upward trend mate.

    An increase in people drawing down mortgages is proof that more people are buying homes and the 50k new homes target the govt has set for 2025 is well within reach.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 635 ✭✭✭InAtFullBack


    Yawn. You sound like a 5G covid conspiracist.

    Ah, lovely opener with the rancid insult attached - is that in the manual? For what it's worth - I got my C19 vaccine.

    Household wealth is at record levels and is now over 1.1 trillion. Nought to do with banks. The clue is in the name. Household wealth.

    Household wealth is worth SFA if we're you're sitting in a half millions worth of concrete and a bit of slate on top to keep the rain out all the while earning €100k where mortgages/rents are eating into a substantial amount of yearly earnings compounded by the fact that all other services and taxes are a huge cost. OOOh I'm bloomin rich on paper but can barely afford next weekend's dinner - go yay! What a way to live!

    100k may not be considered rich, but if the number of households earning 100k+ has increased by 50% in just 2 years, then there are obviously a lot more people earning more money and mortgage capacity is GREATLY increased.

    Let me spell this out to you, very slowly: p.u.r.c.h.a.s.i.n.g. p.o.w.e.r. Try Zimbabwe for an acute example.

    It is well established that rising incomes in ireland are driving property price growth; how could they not. Plenty of online articles on same if you still can't put 2 and 2 together.

    Increased population is driving increased demand. Most wages are static or have seen menial increases in the last six to seven years. Property price increases meanwhile have far outpaced most wage level increases for the lucky few who have got them.

    Home ownership has increased every year since 2020, that's called an upward trend mate.

    Wrong, home ownership does not complete until the very last mortgage payment is made. Look that one up, mate.

    An increase in people drawing down mortgages is proof that more people are buying homes and the 50k new homes target the govt has set for 2025 is well within reach.

    Seen it before lad, desperate people paying anything to get on the property ladder. It's 2006-2007 all over again.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 635 ✭✭✭InAtFullBack


    I should have made my point on home ownership stronger -

    Home Ownership and Rent Census of Population 2022 Profile 2 - Housing in Ireland - Central Statistics Office

    The trend in home ownership and renting between 2016 and 2022 was similar to the trend between 2011 to 2016. Home ownership rates fell as the total number of households living in rental accommodation increased to over half a million.

    The proportion of owner occupied dwellings was 66% in 2022, down from 68% in 2016.

    The number of dwellings owned with a mortgage or loan fell by 1% to 531,207. In contrast, between 2011 and 2016, the decrease in this category was 8%.

    Overall, the number of dwellings owned without a mortgage or loan was up 11% to nearly 680,000.

    The total number of occupied rental properties in the 2022 census was 513,704 up from 469,671 in 2016. This includes properties rented from a private landlord (330,632), local authority (153,192) or voluntary/co-operative housing body (29,880).

    In the 2016 to 2022 period, the number of occupied dwellings rented from a private landlord increased by 7% to over 330,000.

    Anything but the rosy picture painted in @BlueSkyDreams initial response to me.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,128 ✭✭✭John arse


    What is SF policy on the situation in the middle east?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,099 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Home ownership was at 70.4% in 2022, up from 68.7% in 2019; And is up every year inbetween.

    Your other points about purchasing power are redundant.

    If the number of households earning over 100k increases by 50% in 2 years, there is obviously more money flowing into household bank accounts and as such, purchasing power increases.

    More folks are able to borrow more money via mortgage drawdown = price of assets increases.

    Plenty of people have cash to burn; they aren't sitting on a pile of bricks with no liquidity. Have you seen the amount of people out spending in high end restaurants in Dublin or jetting off on their 4th holiday of the year?

    High-wage growth is not static. You dont increase the number of 100k+ tax units by 50% in 24 months with static high-end wages.

    Its the high end wages that push up the property prices, not the average or median national salary.

    What is your actual point anyway? That SF should take over the helm and lead us to a state of perfect harmony?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,978 ✭✭✭deezell


    I suppose they'll build sinn fein houses for them when the war ends. They're great pals of Hamas, Hesbollah, Iran and Putin.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 16,697 ✭✭✭✭Galwayguy35


    McDonald needs to come out and talk about the paedo and who knew about it instead of bladdering on about a war on the other side of the world.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 418 ✭✭Raichų


    too busy trying to convince everyone how great she is.



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