Russia-Ukraine War

It is odd that they would announce it. Previously they would make the announcement after the weapons were used.
Unless the US want to make the announcement asap in retaliation after the import of the Iranian missiles.

Maybe it is being announced to give Moscow a warning not to use the Iranian drones? Actually… that’s a shite possibility

Yep, that’s a possibility. I would have expected some videos/photos of the aftermath however.

….

Russians continue to advance in Kursk

yup seems to be.

Further proof if it were needed that Ukraine desperately needs a Harris victory in the US election:

what the Chinese do internally with their own money is their problem I could care less but the US has become dependent on external countries owning their debt at the margin, again if it was Americans I could care less either but as it is they are setting the seeds for the developing of an alternate to the $ system , its inevitable and it creates tension

Probably worthy of its own thread as it’s going way off tangent here

Start by providing a list of these other countries and how much they own, the structure and type of debt and try to attempt to answer the question “why they lend to US” while at it

You will find the thought excercise illuminating

Alot of people see big numbers and their brain switches off, no longer asking basic questions like what, why, when, how

Problem is Ukraine are spread to far thin. They moved their better troops out of kursk to stop the Russian advances in the donbass which they have had some success in but now Russia can take advantage in kursk which they are. There just isn't enough ukraine troops.

Observation: For over a month we had posts along lines of “no Russian troops were moved to Kursk, silly Ukrainians” and “Povrosk will fall in three days, Russia Stronk”

It’s better than that, these guys are relying on pontoon bridges for supplies to the north with Ukraine on the three other sides

20 days left for Russians to meet Putin’s decree of freeing Kursk, gonna set a reminder for three weeks from now

We’ve gone from Kiev in three days to, Kursk in three weeks 😃

There aren't enough troops or enough equipment, the Ukrainians aren't at the golf carts stage yet but according to Forbes running seriously low on modern equipment:

On a more positive and cheeky note:

You should because your thesis is based on imaginary data

Here is who owns US debt

You mention “alternatives”

Care to name any of these “alternatives”?

Imagine you are Saudi Arabia and the $160bn (notice hilariously enough currency they measure in) Aramco just made in last year and the other 1.5T it will probably make in next 9 years is burning a hole in your pocket, which “alternative” would you stash this in but western markets

Aside: that’s one trillion reasons right there for China not to invade Taiwan, maybe they can sell this debt and buy Russian debt, I hear they are a reliable lot and pay good interest 😂 (ignoring Chinese banks blocking transfers to Russia these days)

 German-based Kiel Institute for the World Economy published a report on September 9 warning that Russia has significantly increased its defense industrial base (DIB) capabilities since 2022 and that depleting weapons and equipment stockpiles may not significantly impact future Russian DIB production.[74] The Kiel Institute reported that between the final quarter of 2022 and the second quarter of 2024, Russia increased tank production by 215 percent from 123 to 387 per quarter; armored vehicle production by 141 percent from 585 to 1,409 per quarter; artillery gun production by 149 percent from 45 to 112 per quarter; short-range air defense systems by 200 percent from nine to 38 per quarter; medium- and long-range air defense systems by 100 percent from six to 12 per quarter; and Lancet loitering munitions by 475 percent from 93 to 535 per quarter. The Kiel Institute caveated these statistics with the fact that 80 percent of Russian armored vehicle and tank production thus far has been a result of retrofitting existing tank hulls from pre-existing stockpiles rather than producing new vehicles, but warned that Russian armored vehicle production may not significantly decrease when Russia's existing stockpiles run out. The Kiel Institute assessed that Russia's armored vehicle production rate will likely decrease beginning in 2026 as Russia burns through its Soviet-era stockpiles but that Russia will likely open new production lines in the coming years to prepare to mitigate that effect. The Kiel Institute estimated that Russia will likely produce 350 modern tanks per year after 2026 even if Russia does not open additional production lines. The Kiel Institute also warned that Russia is working to increase domestic production of "rear systems" such as artillery and air defense and reduce its reliance on pre-existing stockpiles of such systems. The Kiel Institute also credited North Korean ammunition provisions with giving Russia a "strong oversupply" of artillery ammunition and reported that Russian forces are firing 10,000 shells per day.

Not much good the west being 20 times the Russian economy and a century ahead of North Korea when it won't be arsed to spend on defense or kill it's opponents.

I guess we'll see but would be nice if Ukraine could hold it through the mud season and into winter.

It would definitely help Ukraine. It would definitely slow Russia down. Will it stop Russia fully I doubt it but it would really help Ukraine especially when the mud sets in as it would be very hard for russia to move forces as fast and hardware and supplies as fast so they might be in locations longer then they would of been in better weather so if these are in russia proper then Ukraine can take them out better.

What would be viable ATACMS targets? Max range 300km, they're not going to be keeping the launchers very close to front lines, so maybe 200km behind the front lines? $1.5m a pop for an ATACMS so it's not really worthwhile using them to destroy a T-72. So that leaves aircraft and infrastructure?

Does Russia keep any aircraft that close to the front lines after all the drone attacks? What critical infrastructure would be within range? Are there any S-400s ?

Russia may be sensitive to oil.

'

“Russia has been forced to spend over $8bn amassing this shadow fleet. But with sanctioned tankers loitering and unable to load oil, we are determined to make Putin’s investment an expensive misstep for the Kremlin. Our action will help to counter Russian attempts to undermine and dodge economic sanctions.”

The ships targeted are all described as “high-volume offenders” – vessels operating around the clock to transport as much Russian oil as possible. These ships will now be barred from entering UK ports and will be refused access to the UK ship register.

Just three of the vessels targeted, Nikolay Zuyev, NS Asia and Zaliv Aniva, have collectively carried more than $5bn worth of Russian oil since Russia’s full scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022.

The large and recently developed shadow fleet has become the biggest loophole in western efforts to prevent Russia continuing to fund its war through oil exports.

In an effort to stop the revenue, but also prevent the price of oil skyrocketing, the G7 agreed to block insurance to any ship that sold oil at above a cap of $60 a barrel. The shadow fleet has grown to circumvent the G7 policy, but analysts have said a relatively small number of ships are at the heart of the operation.'

Another borked thread

Looks like good news incoming

Twitter is also awash with rumours that the Russian fighter jet downed over the black sea was taken out by an F16. No proof so far though. Wait and see.

Storm shadow mentioned higher up can reach Moscow as well, they also claiming made homegrown jet drone which I suppose is a form of dumber cheaper cruise missile

It

If given in significant numbers it might stop the tide though.

If they are still fretting about 1 being fired in to Russia. They are going to fret about hundreds upon hundreds being fired.

Like all the best tech, it's a mix of too little and too late.

No lead in the pencil.

Like Lammy and Blinken accusing Russia and Iran of escalating things.

Russia invaded Ukraine, an escalation you could say. Add in multiple other countries it's messing with.

Iran has attacked 3 countries in the last 6 months, it had its proxies in Hamas attack Israel in a savage fashion, Hezbollah are trying to start a war in the north and their Houthis are firing at even Paul O'Donovan rowing in the Red sea.

We are long past the escalating stage.