Russia-Ukraine War

It be crossed just like every other red line he scribbled because at end of day Putin started this war and only Putin can end it by going home or expand it by declaring war on others (or attacking other states which would be same thing)

The last thing Putin can afford is war with anyone else, they are stuck 30 mile’s inside poorest country in Europe three years into their three day war

Russian central bank has raised interest rates to 19%

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What's wrong with escalation?

There are times when escalation is needed, correct.

There are times when walking away, turning the cheek, a peaceful solution is deeply wrong , counter productive and only going to lead a greater loss of life.

It's not a popular thing on this thread to call for rearmament across Europe, aggressive rearmament, give Ukraine the full compliment of missiles, give allies who are engaged in war or likely to be at war with Russian allies, that broad alliance hardware and no conditions on use.

They are coming either way. We can nip it in the bud now, in years to come less so

After Putin's (the kremlin's) intervention, the price of a new civilian aircraft the "Baikal" has fallen in price from 455 million rubles to 260 million rubles and the landing and take off required has fallen from 1050 meters to 350 meters. Previously the aircraft was to use western parts but now the requirement is to use only Russian made parts. The supplied plywood will be treated with the most advanced weatherproofing russian technology reports the kremlin.

Great post. I'd just add given the recent chit chat from the US about letting Ukraine use long range French and British missiles in Ukraine it's probably the Americans who don't want Ukraine receiving Taurus.

The concern about the Russians retrieving a complete missile intact is legitimate but I'd like to see them receive 10 to fire over the black sea and drop the crimean bridge again. At least if they're shot down or malfunction they'll be lost to the sea.

Russian forces partaking/leading military manoeuvres in South Syria, with Assad forces and presumably Hezbollah and Iranian Guards.

Unlikely that Russian will join in with it's allies in attacking Israel but you never know, zelensky promised Iran would pay a price, 2 war zones but one war. Israel can defend itself and play a big part in helping damage Russian logistics.

FFS Putins threat for the 1000th time worked.

Cowards.

warts and all

CDS Sep 13

In the operational zone of the Ukrainian Operational Group of Forces (OTG) "Kharkiv" on the Kharkiv direction, the enemy conducted 4 assaults in the area of Vovchansk. The enemy's aviation delivered 2 strikes on civilian infrastructure.

In the "Khortytsia" Operational-Strategic Group of Forces (OSG) operational zone on the Kupyansk direction, there were 8 Russian attacks. Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled enemy assault actions near Synkivka, Hlushkivka, Kolisnykivka, Stelmakhivka, and Lozova. On the Lyman direction, the enemy attacked 6 times, attempting to advance toward Nevske and Druzhelyubivka. On the Siversk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled five enemy assault actions near Verkhnyokamianske. Enemy aviation struck the community of Fedorivka with unguided aerial rockets. On the Kramatorsk direction, the occupiers attacked 4 times in the areas of Chasiv Yar and Stupochky.  On the Toretsk direction, the enemy, supported by aviation, carried out 6 attacks near Nelipivka, Toretsk, and the area around New York.

In the "Tavriya" OSG operational zone, on the Pokrovsk direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces stopped 36 enemy assault and offensive actions toward Vozdvyzhenka, Novooleksandrivka, Zelene Pole, Novotroitske, Hrodivka, Novohrodivka, Selidove, and Mykhailivka. The highest concentration of enemy attacks occurred in the areas of Hrodivka and Novohrodivka.  On the Kurakhove direction, Ukrainian Defense Forces repelled 64 attacks. The occupiers were most active in trying to advance in the areas of Kostyantynivka and Heorhiivka, where about 75% of all the battles took place. Additionally, the enemy attacked toward Oleksandropil and Zhelanne Pershe. On the Vremivka direction, the enemy conducted five assaults on Defense Forces positions in the areas of Vodyane and Zolota Nyva, actively deploying assault and bomber aviation. On the Orikhiv direction, the occupiers attacked near Robotyne, delivering airstrikes on Kamianske, Stepnohirsk, and Shcherbaky.

In the operational zone of "Odesa" OSG on the Prydniprovskiy direction, Russian invaders attacked 6 times but faced a strong counteroffensive and suffered losses.

General conclusion:

• Russian forces continue counterattacks along the entire perimeter of the Ukrainian bridgehead in Kursk Oblast but have achieved only minor successes due to the continued offensive and counterattacks by the "Siversk" OTG. The enemy regained control of Apanasovka, Byakhovo, Vishniovka, Viktorovka, Vnezapnoe, Gordeevka, Krasnooktyabrskoe, Obukhovka, part of Snagost, and the settlement "10 Let Oktyabrya." The enemy has advanced in those areas of Kursk Oblast that are not fully controlled by "Siversk" OTG, but will face greater challenges when counterattacking in areas where the Ukrainian Defense Forces have already consolidated.
• The command of the "Kursk" Operational Grouping mainly relies on poorly trained and equipped conscripts and small units of regular and irregular forces, requiring additional personnel and experienced units to fully push Ukrainian Defense Forces out of the Kursk Oblast. The current strength of the "Kursk" Operational Grouping is estimated at 30-35 thousand servicemen.
• "Siversk" OTG is not attempting to consolidate its positions everywhere on its bridgehead in the Kursk Oblast.
• Despite significant losses, enemy infantry groups, supported by armored vehicles, broke through to Hostre, Donetsk Oblast, and entrenched themselves in the village.
• High FPV activity by Ukrainian Defense Forces on the Pokrovsk direction complicates Russian attacks, strains their stretched logistics, and increases their losses.

Change in the line of contact (LoC):

• There were 143 combat engagements on various fronts.
• On the Kursk Direction, Russian forces made minor advances west of Vishniovka and in the northern part of Krasnooktyabrskoe, continuing to advance southeast of Korenevo and northeast of Snagost.
• "Siversk" OTG counterattacked in response to the areas where Russian forces had begun their counterattacks, advancing beyond the salient, reaching the Glushkovo district, pushing to the southwestern outskirts of Tiotkino, bypassing the "dragon's teeth" anti-tank obstacles on the Russian-Ukrainian border southwest of Novyi Put. They continued assaults near Novyi Put, Medvezhie, Snagost, Olgovka, and Fanaseevka. A HIMARS missile strike hit a pontoon bridge across the Seym River, inflicting losses on the enemy gathering nearby.
• On the Kharkiv direction, Russian forces advanced near Hlyboke, Lyptsi, Vovchansk, Tykhe, and Hatyshche.
• On the Kupyansk direction, Russian forces advanced in the fields to the west and south of Pishchane, attacked southwest of Synkivka, and aimed to establish a bridgehead 3 km north of Kupyansk to launch an offensive on Petropavlivka. They conducted 15 airstrikes on Ukrainian positions in Kolisnykivka and continued advancing near Kolisnykivka, Hlushkivka, Stelmakhivka, Lozova, Andriivka, Tverdokhlibove, and Druzhelyubivka.
• On the Lyman direction, Russian forces attacked near Makiivka, Hrekivka, Nevske, Torske, Terny, and Dibrova.
• On the Siversk Direction, Russian forces continued offensive actions near Verkhnyokamianske and Vyimka.
• On the Kramatorsk direction, Russian forces advanced north of Kalynivka on the western bank of the Siversky Donets-Donbas Canal, attacking near Zaliznyanske and Stupochky.
• On the Toretsk direction, Russian forces advanced along Tsentralna Street in the eastern part of Toretsk, captured district No. 1 (southeastern Toretsk), and continued their offensive near Dachne, New York, and Nelipivka.
• On the Pokrovsk direction, Russian forces advanced in the southern part of Ukrainsk, along the railway northeast of Novohrodivka, entered the southeastern part of Lisivka and captured the village. They also advanced south of Netaylove, west of Nevelske, and north of Krasnohorivka, continuing offensive actions near Vozdvyzhenka, Novooleksandrivka, Zelene Pole, Hrodivka, towards Novotroitske, in the areas of Novohrodivka, Selydove, Mykhailivka, and Ukrainsk.
• On the Kurakhove direction, Russian forces advanced in Hostre and in the fields directly northeast and southeast of the village, intensifying their efforts to eliminate Ukrainian bulges to the west and southwest of Donetsk. They closed the pocket directly southwest of Krasnohorivka, advancing toward Hostre and continuing offensives near Heorhiivka.
• On the Vremivka direction, Russian forces continued their offensive northeast of Vuhledar near Kostyantynivka, Katerynivka, Vodyane, and Vuhledar, continuing assaults near Zolota Nyva.
• On the Orikhiv direction, fighting continued near Mala Tokmachka. Russian forces captured a Ukrainian position west of Novopokrovka and the adjacent forested area.
• In the Black Sea-Azov naval operational area, the enemy naval group on combat duty consists of:
  • Black Sea: 1 ship, including 1 cruise missile carrier; the total salvo is 4 cruise missiles.
  • Mediterranean Sea: 5 ships, 4 cruise missile carriers; the total salvo is 32 cruise missiles.
• Russian forces launched a missile strike on a civilian cargo ship under the flag of Saint Kitts and Nevis, transporting Ukrainian wheat to Egypt as it was leaving Ukrainian territorial waters in the Black Sea.

Changes in the enemy disposition:

• Units of the 132nd Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 51st Combined Arms Army are operating near Toretsk. 
• The command of the enemy’s “Sever (North)” Operational Grouping is focusing on restoring the combat capability of the 11th Tank Regiment of the 18th Motorized Rifle Division of the 11th Army Corps at forward positions near Hlyboke, the 82nd Motorized Rifle Regiment of the 69th Motorized Rifle Division of the 6th Combined Arms Army, and the 4th Volunteer Reconnaissance and Assault Brigade in Vovchansk. The 136th Separate Motorized Rifle Brigade of the 58th Combined Arms Army suffered significant losses near Tykhe.

Escalation indicators:

• The United Kingdom will allow Ukraine to use the long-range Storm Shadow missiles it provided in the coming days to strike military targets deep within Russian territory.

Possible operation situation developments:

• The enemy's command on the theater of operations must conduct strategic regrouping between operational zones and reinforce the "Tsentr (Center)"Operational Grouping on the Toretsk direction with at least a corps. For this purpose, the 3rd Army Corps may be redeployed to this direction from the Kramatorsk direction, or the main forces of the 51st Army may be concentrated.
• "Tavriya" OSG will not be able to hold the Zhelanne Pershe – Zhelanne Druhe line, as the enemy is already on the western bank of the Vovcha River and is actively advancing along it in a southern direction (Danylivka – Hirnyk). The situation could be salvaged if the "Tavriya" OSG forces reliably hold the Hirnyk – Kurakhivka line, though this remains uncertain.
• The enemy will likely attempt to encircle “Tavriya” OSG units on the eastern bridgehead of the Vovcha River, advancing towards Nevelske. They plan to engage the main forces of the 51st Combined Arms Army and the 90th Tank Division of the 41st Combined Arms Army to secure the right flank of the 2nd Combined Arms Army in the Selidove area along the Hirnyk-Kurakhivka line. Meanwhile, the 2nd Combined Arms Army will continue to push its offensive towards Pokrovsk and Myrnohrad.
• By the end of this year, the enemy will not only fail to occupy Donetsk Oblast within its administrative borders but also will be unable to seize the "fortress belt" of Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka-Kramatorsk-Slovyansk. The upcoming battle for Pokrovsk will be the climax of the enemy's offensive operation in the Southwestern Theater of Operations in 2024.
• We should expect enemy attempts to repeat the tactical maneuver they used at the beginning of the assault on Chasiv Yar: concentrating a large grouping of forces in a narrow sector, creating high tactical density in their formations, while deploying reserves dispersed along the entire front. Until then, the enemy will continue its frontal assault towards Pokrovsk from the southeast, advancing along the Avdiivka-Pokrovsk railway in a relatively narrow corridor (up to 5 km wide) between the Solonenka and Zhuravka rivers.

Russian operational losses from 24.02.22 to 13.09.24  

Personnel - almost 631,420 (+1,220); 

Tanks 8,671 (+18);

Armored combat vehicles – 17,003 (+48); 

Artillery systems – 18,061 (+52);

Multiple rocket launchers (MLRS) – 1,185 (+1);

Anti-aircraft warfare systems - 945 (0);

Vehicles and fuel tanks – 24,481 (+93);

Aircraft - 369 (0);

Helicopters – 328 (0);

UAV operational and tactical level – 15,113 (+80);

Intercepted cruise missiles – 2,591 (0);

Boats/ships – 29 (0).

Humanitarian+general:

• The Ukrainian side has secured the release of 49 military personnel and civilians from Russian captivity, including, for the first time in a long while - 23 women. Among them are Ukrainian civilians who were detained and illegally imprisoned by the Russians even before the full-scale invasion.
• During the night of September 13, Russia launched 26 Shahed-type attack drones against Ukraine, with air defense shooting down 24 enemy drones.
• As a result of the Russian attack drones on Odesa and the Odesa district during the night of September 13, one civilian was injured, and private buildings and cars were damaged.
• In the morning of September 13, a Russian UAV attacked the village of Veletenske in Kherson Oblast. A 75-year-old woman and a 60-year-old man, who were outside during the strike, were injured by the dropping of explosives.
• Russian aviation struck civilian infrastructure in the Yampil community in Sumy Oblast in the morning of September 13, resulting in two deaths, while six others, including a 4-year-old child, were wounded.
• Due to a Russian strike with a guided aerial bomb on the city of Okhtyrka in Sumy Oblast, two women from the Okhtyrka care home for the elderly and disabled were killed.
• On September 13, Russian forces targeted Nikopol in the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast 20 times with heavy artillery and kamikaze drones. They also dropped ammunition from a UAV, injuring three people.
• Over the past day, civilian energy infrastructure in the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, Ivano-Frankivsk, Odesa, Sumy, and Kharkiv Oblasts was subjected to enemy shelling.

Centre for Defence Strategies (CDS) is a Ukrainian security think tank. We operate since 2020. We publish this brief daily. If you would like to subscribe, please send us an email at cds.dailybrief@gmail.com

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Interesting alright

British and UK governments take the red line more seriously than boards posters, by the looks of it.

Disappointing. Unless they simply want to keep Putin guessing?

This old man’s story and others is told in this bbc podcast

About vile “ordinary” people that flourish in this Russian “culture”

An thought in my head a few days ago about this red line of escalating. Is it possible that the US might be waiting for a nod from their Russian asset who might be able to inform them of Putins exact response. It seems to me the US are waiting for something.

BBC update on situation in the east, it's getting worse, yet still US and UK are dithering about long range missiles:

Probably the longer range weaponry would be using allied or NATO satellite based systems for guidance.

Global oil prices continue to fall, back to 2021 levels now

Say publicly it's a "red line" but then don't punish them for breaking it.

Or better yet tell them you will punish them in "3 days".

I am not sure it is a great argument. I don't think Russia's military were born knowing how to target & fire Shaheds let alone how to build them. Similar for North Korean ballistic missiles they have already used to attack Ukraine's cities, same will apply again when they receive and start using Iranian ballistic missiles. Where does that know how come from? Osmosis or sleep learning (unlikely) or perhaps Iranian and NK "advisors", experts etc., their allies giving a helping hand at least for a time to get them up and running (more likely).