LUAS Network + Future Expansion

I'm not a big fan of the Lucan Luas or at least I don't think it should be a priority. For one, I don't think street trams are the correct choice for covering longish commuting distances of 10 or 15km. And secondly there's something that strikes me as vaguely ridiculous that while the city centre is choked with double decker buses we are considering proposals are for building tram infrastructure way outside the core.

I'd build the section from James to Trinity except continue it to Ringsend, to act as a substitute for buses along these streets. Would take a lot of pressure off the Red line where it's most packed - in the centre.

In fact I'd concentrate all new street tram/Luas construction in the core starting with the heaviest Bus corridors with the eventual goal of displacing most buses from the centre completely.

For example, in terms of benefits to the city there's surely a case for Luas along the Dorset St corridor - say from Drumcondra station to Harolds cross vs Christchurch. This is only a bit over 4km but the benefits to the city as a whole would far outweigh the proposed 10km of Luas between James' Hospital and Lucan.

Happy Birthday Luas 🎉 🥳

Nice article in the IT, for once!

Respected economists and transport commentators said the new trams would not meet passenger targets, would be “grossly uneconomic” and would probably aggravate, rather than reduce, city congestion by obstructing motorists.....

... In its first year, it broke through its 20 million passengers target by carrying 22 million. Unlike all other public transport services, it required no State subvention, and as for congestion, the culprits were largely single-occupancy vehicles blocking trams carrying hundreds or passengers, not the other way around.

https://www.irishtimes.com/transport/2024/06/30/the-right-track-luas-celebrates-20th-anniversary-with-passenger-numbers-for-this-year-set-to-hit-50-million/

Here's a flavour of what the LUAS nay-sayers at the Irish Independent thought in 2004 - what visionaries !

https://www.independent.ie/opinion/editorial/luas-is-the-expensive-wrong-option-for-all/26011060.html

Colm McCarthy had views as well. (I have bolded some bits of it).

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/economist-casts-doubts-on-the-viability-of-luas-1.1309387

Tim O'Brien
Sat Apr 24 2004 - 01:00

Dublin's Luas system, due to commence operations in nine weeks time, needs to carry a similar amount of passengers as the city's DART system just to cover its operational costs, an economist has claimed.
Luas expects to carry 20 million passengers in its first year of operations at an expected "fare box" revenue of €20 million.
It has also said it expects to pay the international transport operator Connex €20 million a year to run the system.
However, a leading economist, Mr Colm McCarthy, of DKM Consultants, has cast doubt on the viability of the system based on its own projections, pointing out that projected passenger numbers for the two unconnected lines are similar to those for the entire DART system.

Iarnród Éireann has confirmed its DART service between Howth, Malahide, Portmarnock and Greystones carried 21.6 million passengers in 2003.
According to Mr McCarthy, the Luas lines are extremely unlikely to meet their target of 20 million passengers in their first year of operation.
If the target is not met, Luas will potentially be unable to meet its financial obligation to pay Connex its fee of €20 million.
The figures also cast doubt on the financial viability of other extensions of the Luas to Cherrywood and the Docklands, for which private sector companies in the vicinity of the lines have been required to contribute.
Commenting after the British National Audit Office reported new tram lines across the UK had failed to achieve predicted passenger numbers - sometimes by 45 per cent - Mr McCarthy said difficulties with such systems were now "a worldwide phenomena".
Speaking to The Irish Times, Mr McCarthy said the real equation "is that trams generally cost twice as much, take twice as long and carry half the numbers, and this has been borne out by experience right across the world".
Asked if there was any reason to imagine that the Republic could be more accurate in its projections, Mr McCarthy insisted that Luas was already over-budget and over-time.
"Two legs of the treble are already up. I would love to be able to say that this is only 'mickology' but it is a worldwide thing."
However, Mr Ger Hannon, from the Light Rail Procurement Agency, said the agency was tired of hearing that Luas was over-budget and late.
He insisted that the system's passenger targets were to the highest international standards, and added that the Government had accepted that from the moment the contract was signed to the present, Luas was on budget.
As regards time, he conceded that the system may be about eight weeks off schedule.
Mr Hannon also insisted that the agency's estimates for passenger numbers were conservative, with eight million or nine million on line B, the Green Line to Sandyford; and 12 or 13 million on the Tallaght line in the first year of operation.

…and now we have a passenger cap at the Airport because we have no Metro - which is great for an island economy 🙄

I don't think we're meant to look back at what economists said and then compare it to the actual outcome. It makes them look like a waste of space and money.

Looks like TII have been getting the crayons out…

I think even insomewhere like France they'd consider that a little ambitious for 5 and a half years, but 2040 would be the goal for that anywhere else

Hopefully this is updated to consider the current landscape, which was very very different back then. With private traffic already removed from College Green and more restrictions due, the case is much stronger for a spur from James down to College Green. It would be far less disruptive during construction than would have been considered in the 2000s - granted, I'm not sure what exactly drove previous decisions on the optimal route.

Obviously both spurs should be built, but the spur down to College Green will relieve enormous pressure off the Red Line.

A park and ride away from Bray at Fassaroe I assume.

I’d personally have liked it had gone a bit further down the N11 and got closer to West Greystones.

I understand the complaints about lengthy Light Rail lines but I think we also need to move away from the idea that all lines get to the city centre (orbital suggests that).

A lot of traffic needs to be removed from both Bray and Greystones given the population explosion of both (I’d like to ultimately see some kind of congestion charge in those places for non residents). You’re also helping Wicklow and Wexford people by putting in direct accessibility to UCD (hopefully) and Sandyford.

I suspect with over 60 mins likely from Bray Station for the Luas that most would still use the DART for the city centre and even the 145 / 84x.

Definitely post-T42, the priority should be getting buses out of the centre of the city. Currently living away from Dublin, it's something I never noticed in my years living there but whenever I return, it's striking how damaging having queues of slow moving tall and heavy vehicles is to the urban environment. Everywhere in the city adjacent to heavy flows of buses is unpleasant for pedestrians and cyclists (particularly). And it's about the least efficient use of double decker buses having them crawl through busy city streets. And despite so much street space being provided to them in the city core, they're not much use in terms of hop-on/hop-off to get around the centre since the dwell times are so long and most of the available seating involves navigating a one-way single stairwell.

Long term the goal should be to build a network of tramlines criss-crossing between the canals and have all outer bus passengers transfer to trams at interchanges to get into the centre. The last time I used buses was in Amsterdam and this is how it worked and it's fine - you get off a bus somewhere away from the centre and wait a few minutes at the same platform for the next tram. Amsterdam has plenty of lowish density suburbs, particularly in the south which are served by buses.

Only then, having provided decent tram capacity in the centre of Dublin, should outer extensions be considered. I'd park metrowest, most of Lucan luas and extending the green line further to Bray (the first extension was already a mistake in my opinion) until the core is sorted out. The network should be extended outward in steps from the core, not the periphery, along the busier bus routes, where heavy rail or metro is not an option or justified.

The displaced buses can do what buses do best, provide services in low density suburbs and provide dense connectivity with rail services whether heavy, metro or trams. Despite the NTA being ultimately in charge, PT in Dublin has not been integrated aggressively enough - buses, Luas and DART/Commuter are seen as alternatives instead of being used to each's strength in a complimentary way.

Probably at 15x the cost though!!..

Why would you stop 1km from UCD?