The decline of FG?

The smaller parties wont have enough seats to form a govt with SF. Thats why FF are really the only option for SF to partner with.

Well they'll be hoping this season's polls will be borne out much better than those of Autumn 2019, because at the general election that followed in Feb 2020, they achieved 20.9%

Where their actual vote also declined?

If I have said anything that is factually incorrect, point it out.

I am not the only contributor here either.

I'll be the first to say I've always been skeptical of opinion polls but they do get close at election time

Will they? Or will they do the right thing and step aside from the problems they clearly can't fix?

While I completely disagree with their policies I do think there are decent men and women in FFG who will put their country first so I'm hoping for the right thing to be done. Certainly I think that an election in February when the hype of the budget is gone and the trolley crisis will be at peak is a sign of them not interested in leading the next dáil

I'll be the first to say I've always been skeptical of opinion polls but they do get close at election time

A month out from the GE last time a poll had FG at 28%, 2 months before Red C had them at 30%.
They got 20.9% of the vote in the actual election.

If they hold out til a February election I'll eat my hat, because if so they no longer want to be in Government or they're complete morons.

Harris held out the option that if the other party leaders came to him sooner than that then he would call it, absolving himself of any previous promises, seems Martin has done the same. The GP however front page article criticising the other two knowing they've nothing to lose cos they're going to get hammered either way.

The faux war has started, November it is.

Looking since last GE, probably little to no decline. In fact despite gross incompetence, obscene waste of public money, wasting a flood of tax money with practically nothing to show, abandoning the stance of fiscal prudence and law and order FG may even show an increase vs 2020 vote share.

The verdict on all that isn’t in yet.
They have been below the 2020 % and above it.
There’s a way to go yet.

I dont see SF delivering those homes. Its just a soundbite.

There's no public sector construction workforce to build the SF homes and they are also anti investment fund, despite the fact that most new build complexes are delivered via investment funds.

If you want more homes to be built, FFG are a better and safer bet. They are on track to hit 50k new homes per year by 2025, or 2026 at the latest.

We also have record housing commencements this year. Things are going in the right direction on housing.

More needs to be done, but we are scaling up. Loads of apartments going up across Dublin these last few years.

SF plan on their first day in office to cancel the FHS and other government schemes and to put up more obstacles to investment funds. If you believe that promise, it means that housing construction will collapse in 2025 and possibly not recover until 2027 as it takes up to a year to hire staff in the public sector, and their public sector construction company will need legislation which takes a year before we even get to that stage.

Sure, sure.

Martin ruled out FG/FF coalition in February 2020.

demand side stimulation policies such as first time buyers grants are well known to cause further price inflation, this has occurred here in ireland and other countries that have done so, australia etc, ffg policies will always default to this thinking, as this is the main basis of their economic ideologies, i.e. to protect primary asset markets and the owners of such assets, and its working….

…but again, there wont be an alternative government in ireland, and probably not for a long time to come, so such gainers have nothing to be worrying about, but their kids, grand kids, nieces and nephews are well screwed now at this stage, so its very short term thinking. this approach will ultimately fail for all in the long run though, so nothing to be worrying about, the elder needs of such gainers are well safe, i.e. pension funds, old age care needs etc, as things such as pension funds are well protected from unstable, unsustainable property markets, arent they!

Isn't going on about how a government chooses to spend a surplus as buying votes,a well worn tactic thats usually the last vestage of an opposition who know their numbe is up

It an observation on a current and ongoing tactic.
Had we not crisis and homelessness, children waiting on lists and a whole section of the population requiring cost of living packages, you could say there is a 'surplus'.
Certain demographics are being targeted others are being long fingered or ignored.
Call that for what it is.

Exactly. It is highly unlikley that the SF approach would deliver more homes by 2030, vs the current govt policy; which is already implemented, in full swing and is still accelerating.

So many changes are required to implement the SF policy that they would nearly be starting from scratch.

It's like a race between a car travelling at 100km/h and accelerating towards 120km/h vs the SF car that hasn't got into first gear yet.

I know which car my money would be on to win the race.

This is what matters.

If the goal is, as I have long said, power for power's sake, that will be found out inevitably.

Its possible to move towards 50k next year with the current approach, yes.

I dont see it being possible with the SF approach, no.

And it is quite possible FG will be in government on a further decline.

How long until that makes a coalition impossible if decline continues is the guessing game.
Part of one of FG's worst ever performances in a GE last time out was due to a gaff by 2 ministers (Varadkar and Charlie Flanagan) in the run up to the election havng been at 30% in the polls just a few months from the finish line.
I.E. It takes very little in the current climate for a party to get a hammering.

That's simple maths, if FFG - and their independent supporters - command 88 seats or more they will need to be part of the next govt, last time they had 81 which was the limit at the time so nobody else had a chance really

The biggest drag on housebuilding is having enough workers & construction firms & planning

Picking numbers out of their ass like SF do is not enough to convince people is it

If Fine gael & FF get back into government and they're able to increase housing builds each year by the percentages to date every year,you'll have north of 300k extra houses by 2025,a nightmare for the 'lets get into govt so we can have a UI ref asap' party tbh isn't it

SF's approach will not work. They are relying on the private market to deliver houses, yet they are driving the only group with financial backing - institutional investors - out of the private market.

Under SF, house completions could fall as low as 25k in 2026, 2025 will look good no matter what because of the strong performance of the FF/FG government in increasing housing starts.

we ve no real clue what would happen to our housing sector with a sf government, but we must at least attempt to de-financialise it, this is ultimately what sf are trying with their proposals, as its clearly obvious the whole process has completely failed, as is the case in virtually all other countries that have tried this approach, which is most advanced economies at this stage.

the financialised approach clearly is hardwired for short term financial gains, which clearly isnt compatible with our long term needs in regards housing, but nobody truly knows how to de-financialise the process, all attempts would probably further destabilise the sector, but something must be tried, as we re clearly stuck in highly destructive feedback loops with our current approach….

but the reality is, this approach is now starting to catastrophically fail, by continuing this approach, we re actually effectively dooming younger generations, which in turn is dooming all of us, we re starting to see the negative effects now, with rapidly rising social dysfunctions including addiction problems, mental health issues and a rise in particular types of crimes, all related to growing social distress, all of which will have significant long term negative effects both socially and economically, as highly stressed people tend to be more absent from work, and experience more long term unemployment.

and add in an aging population on top of all of that, we ll very quickly start experience significant social and economic problems from all of the above, this is starting in other countries already such a japan.

if we remain as is, its very unlikely we ll be able to meet the needs of many of our citizens, including those that have greatly benefitted from financialisation, in particular current property owners, in particular as they retire, pension funds are not looking good due to this, and its very unlikely we ll be able to provide adequate care in old age either, due to all of the above growing pressures….

its true we have de-resourced our states ability to build, so the only way to try rectify this, is to try re-resource the states ability to, again, we have to be adults at some stage and accept our modern approaches have virtually completely failed, resulting in hyper inflation of markets, serious market dysfunction, and chronic supply problems, again, we re not the only country currently experiencing these issues, and the common denominator is financialisation…..

Nobody disagrees with the idea that the State has to build more.

What is concerning is the SF idea to turn off the private sector supply before the State had built up capacity. That is extremely dangerous.

I agree we should ramp up public home building, but thats something the current govt can do, in addition to encouraging the curent private investment.

Of course it's something they can do but they haven't done yet so I see no reason to believe they will if given another 5 years… Maybe you do?

The issue with the SF plan is that firstly, the public sector construction industry is way too small to build the number of homes SF are quoting. Meaning it will take years and significant tax payers money to get the resource levels right. During those barren years of barely any public home construction, the population continues to grow and the housing crisis gets worse, not better.

Again I make the argument that they would not be trying to improve public resources using FFG methods

Secondly, SF want to discourage the private investment funds that are delivering the majority of our homes today. If we push these funds out, home building will fall off a cliff.

Fake News: Their plan is for 50% of the homes to be privately built

SF would end up with very few public homes being built in the first few years because resource isnt there and private market exodus means private homes aren't being built either.

Again, see the 2nd and 3rd points I make above. Making fake statements like this is quite dangerous

Thats why the FFG approach delivers more homes overall, but there should be more investment in public construction resources, to help grow that number even further and beyond the 50k per year mark.

It delivers more homes than no approach, I'll grant you that one… We're currently looking at 35k homes this year, that plus another 15k next year. I hope they do it but I'd question it

That's highly unlikely to happen and given your lack of proof actually sounds like scaremongering. Scaremongering like when SF say 293 patients dying on trolleys in one hospital over a 4 year period, only that one is backed up below

https://www.rte.ie/news/ireland/2024/0522/1450585-trolleys-limerick/

That's highly unlikely. FFG prioritises developers, landlords and bankers, this cohort want low supply for high prices for high profit margins. But maybe I will be proven wrong