Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie
Hi all! We have been experiencing an issue on site where threads have been missing the latest postings. The platform host Vanilla are working on this issue. A workaround that has been used by some is to navigate back from 1 to 10+ pages to re-sync the thread and this will then show the latest posts. Thanks, Mike.
Hi there,
There is an issue with role permissions that is being worked on at the moment.
If you are having trouble with access or permissions on regional forums please post here to get access: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058365403/you-do-not-have-permission-for-that#latest

The decline of FG?

1202123252630

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,882 ✭✭✭pureza


    Yeah we should definitely disincentivise the bankers the land lords and the developers

    They're an awful nuisance 🙄



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,726 ✭✭✭Red Silurian


    Agreed. There are good ones out there but few and far between they are. The last thing we want is a repeat of 2008



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,005 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Its not fake news. SF plan to have the majority of their homes delivered via the private sector. Not just 50%.

    At the same time, they want to cut out the investment funds that enable private developments.

    If you turn off the tap that funds the majority of your planned new homes, how would you expect them to deliver the homes?



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,443 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    Banking has become a commodity industry, so much so that two banks have closed down. So who exactly do you expect to finance the housing crisis, the taxpayer through higher taxes perhaps?????



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,279 ✭✭✭Chiparus


    They said the same about the current coalition.



  • Moderators, Business & Finance Moderators Posts: 10,443 Mod ✭✭✭✭Jim2007


    The majority of the voters and the taxpayers do….

    The majority of voters are property owners with huge mortgages, so the last thing they want is for property prices to start falling as they will end up in negative equity and will face calls on their mortgages, as well as seeing their primary retirement asset go up in smoke.

    The SF proposal will fail for the exact same reasons all the others did - The voters will not accept any solution that does not include them getting to own a house. And none politicians are willing to bring home the bad news - not everyone will get to own their own house when it comes to solving the housing crisis.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,726 ✭✭✭Red Silurian


    You're either overthinking it or watching too much fox news because nothing you write is true



  • Registered Users Posts: 1,973 ✭✭✭PeadarCo


    The other big thing which people also forget is that house prices don't exist in a vacuum. Anything that is going to cause a serious drop in nominal house prices is going to have a severe on the wider economy and peoples jobs/income. It's very easy to look back at 08-12 and remember how low house prices were but forget how hard it was to get a job. FF will tell you exactly how people reacted the last time house prices crashed.

    Increasing supply will only moderate real house price increases but won't impact nominal house prices(which the media fixates on). Anyone who says they can reduce nominal house prices without tanking the economy isn't being honest/realistic.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,005 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Look at the plan. Its greater than 50% reliant on private homes.

    It's well established that SF want to restrict investment funds.

    The earning threshold for a SF home is lower than 2 average salaries. Meaning a couple on average incomes wont qualify for the homes anyway, even if they were built.

    Ignore the facts if you like.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,005 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Under the SF plan, you would end up with a two-tiered housing market.

    The SF state land owned homes, that are worth half what the same house across the road in the private estate is worth.

    As SF divert resources toward building their state land homes and social and affordable properties, the number of private homes beimg built would shrink, as the construction resource is diverted.

    Providing the economy stays strong, the value of private homes would rise as supply decreases, moving private home ownership further away from the 20 and 30 somethings.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,400 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    Property prices will not fall for existing owners.

    Development on brownfield sites will be more intensive than surrounding areas, leading to increases in value for the larger houses.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,400 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    They did, but I am saying different about a potential FF/SF coalition. MM will have to be up first, and given the skeletons in the SF cupboard, their inability to get on with any other party North or South, their mad policies, and their obsession with a border poll, the coalition won't last long enough for MLMD to become Taoiseach.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,726 ✭✭✭Red Silurian


    I doubt MM will stick around after the next election, let alone want the role of Taoiseach again. But whoever leads FF after the next election will need to go first in any coalition agreement. This is in case they kick the bucket before the switchover and go down as the first FF leader not to become Taoiseach. A horrifying notion to a FF party member

    Coalitions are formed between parties who are able to agree to policies for a program of govt. SF want to end hospital waiting lists and the practice of a hospital trolley being a bed, end homelessness, build housing and make our tax system more progressive. FFG want longer hospital waiting lists, more people on trolleys, tax cuts for bankers and landlords and more homelessness with higher house prices. I see no situation where these 2 politically opposite parties could ever be together in Government



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,909 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    tbf to ffg, they actually dont want to make things worse, but they dont have the ability to realise theres serious fundamental flaws in their thinking in regards how to approach our most critical of problems, i.e. theyre not intentionally trying to make things worse, but have no ability to realise they are….

    …this dynamic isn gonna change anytime soon either, so we must prepare your kids, grand kids, nieces and nephews for an extremely unstable future…



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,127 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    …this dynamic isn gonna change anytime soon either, so we must prepare your kids, grand kids, nieces and nephews for an extremely unstable future…

    A lifetime watching politics and I fundamentally disagree with this ^^

    Decline will eventually meet a tipping point. The FG-FF coalition has staved that off for a while and it will only be for a while.
    It has no where to go now, and the electorate will tire of it.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,909 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    i understand your viewpoint, and somewhat agree, but the reality is, ffg have effectively blocked up our electoral system with their confidence and supply agreements, and probably for some time to, i suspect these agreements will continue into the 30's and maybe 40's, depending on….

    yes there will more than likely be a tidal shift at some point in time, but again, that may not be for some time, as the current only alternative, sf, simply dont have enough momentum within them to push through, as it stands, sf would more than likely need a significantly high voter turn out, a near majority, in order to make it impossible for ffg to be able to form another government, and that simply isnt going to happen anytime soon, and maybe never….

    the electorate will indeed tire of these dynamics, but its clearly not gonna happen this decade, but maybe next, but by that stage critical entities such as housing, health care, infrastructure etc etc, will more than likely be in absolute tatters, and will more than likely require decades to resolve…..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,127 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I can see the electorate hammering one of FG or FF. Making a power protecting coalition impossible

    Then we'll see what happens.

    If I had to bet, I will put my money on it being FG. Varadkar came in on the same wave of approval that Harris has and the worm turned on him, fact his, he had to throw his hat at it having failed to raise FG from 2020 %. I hold by my prediction that Harris has the potential to be FG's most unpopular leader. Could easily happen within a term in government.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,909 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    yea this will more than likely what will eventually happen, but again, its not going to be this decade, and what will happen in that time will be devastating both socially and long term economically, its very disturbing to see that neither party can actual see this playing out in real time, being unable to read the room, being unable to pivot, both deeply locked into their ideological beliefs, and just simply ploughing on, neither have self reflective capacity to see any of this, very disturbing stuff….



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,726 ✭✭✭Red Silurian


    I appreciate you seeing the good in people but I disagree. Most FFG members and donors are entities who stand to gain hugely from the continued demise of our healthcare and housing provisions. Certainly they might try to come across as being the next CFTrump or BoJo but behind it all FFG are being quite smart in what they are doing



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,909 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    i somewhat disagree there, i truly believe most established political parties from advanced nations have backed themselves into ideologically cul-de-sacs, have the serious inability to self reflect and realise their fundamental failures, and instead are just continually doubling down on the policies thats just magnifying and amplifying our most serious of issues, i do believe this is largely unintentional, but it is understandable why many believe it to be intentional.

    it is disturbing to see such a large group of genuinely intelligent people, not being able to react to this, but theres clearly very strong destructive group think occurring within these political entities and parties



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 285 ✭✭mehico


    FG seem to be struggling to attract support from the 18-34 age group but have strong support from the over 55 group but it is often said that older people are more likely to vote than younger people so this will play a factor in the acutal results on election day.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,909 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    yup, as older generations have been the primary benefactors to policies implemented over the last few decades, i.e. asset price inflation in the form of property and other investment funds such as pension funds, but its clearly obvious, these bubbles are not sustainable, so the future of such are not looking too hot…..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,127 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The trouble with older generations is you can't bank on their support for ever.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,571 ✭✭✭yagan


    I think the comfortable middle aged, small or no mortgage who did well out the bertie boom years are the ones FG/FF want to keep happy.

    Only a few of older demographic really cashed out during the boom years, the rest can't be relied on to reinstate the same two hospital trolley parties.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,726 ✭✭✭Red Silurian


    Party who support landlords, high rents and high house prices not supported by demographic forced to live with parents or in rentals because they can't afford houses?

    This can't be a surprise



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,005 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Younger people become older. As they get older, they generally become more financially settled and vote for a govt that supports them.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,127 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Not borne out by the data we have.
    Those who voted FG in 2011 are 13 years older and 20% of them don't vote FG anymore.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,005 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    I wasnt talking about FG in particular, but as FG are topping the polls, what age groups are voting for them do you think?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,127 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Nobody is 'voting' in a GE yet.

    They FG are + or - 3% ahead of where they where in 2020 if polling is believed.

    They are appealing to some from different ages groups.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,005 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams




  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,127 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 29,909 ✭✭✭✭Wanderer78


    true for a society with relatively stable wealth equality, but this radically changes in an environment of rapidly growing wealth inequality, which is our current state, as it badly negatively impacts whats called 'social mobility', i.e. the ability for younger generations to move from lower levels of socioeconomic status, towards higher levels over time, ffg and their supporters also dont seem to understand this dynamic either, or worse, dont care….



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,005 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    I doubt that. Plenty of people from twenties upwards will vote for them. You dont poll at number 1 without having some support across the board.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,127 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    I didn't say they had no support.
    But do the maths yourself. 20.9% from 100% It's more than 75% across all ages that don't vote FG.

    Saying they have captured a particular demographic is simply not tenable.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,005 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    We have more households than ever earning over 100k per year - many of them aged in their 20s and 30s.

    The mumbers earning that amount increased by 50% in the last 2 years alone.

    There have never been as many people earning as much money as they do today in Ireland.

    That's part of the framework for socioeconomic development.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,005 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    I havent seen the stats, but I am quite sure no party has captured a demographic completley.

    That said, there will be certain age groups that tend towards certain parties.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,127 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    And that will vary.
    Polling through this term of government alone shows you that.
    And it can switch in actual GE's too.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,005 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    It can, but it can also stay the same. Either way, better to be front runner in the practice lap before the race.

    Looks like Feb for a GE now. I did think since the summer it would be November.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,127 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    better to be front runner 

    Again, per FG, that didn't work out so well in the run up to the last GE, did it? 30% in a poll 2 months out from the GE.



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,005 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Has no bearing on this election.

    The point stands. Better to go into any election leading the polls, that goes without saying.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,127 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,005 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Not an FFG supporter myself, but given the choice between them or a SF led govt, the FFG option is far more stable I would say.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 18,978 ✭✭✭✭Bass Reeves


    Slava Ukrainii



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,127 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,422 ✭✭✭SuperBowserWorld


    Copied quoted below from Reddit ... For people who want to and can work ...Ireland is a country for wealthy/lucky young people only or people who are waiting for their parents to die so they have somewhere to afford to live when they get the house.

    "Last year I moved to a poor European country, making way less than I could at home, many economic metrics poorer than my home, a country famous for mismanagement and corruption..but I am shocked on a daily basis on how much better things are here and how much higher my quality of life is, I can rent my own apartment, I can afford a mortgage and apartments are actually available for sale, like lots of them new and old, I use a shockingly reliable public transport system to get to work, busses and metro and trams all have a tap on system no exact money needed and they are all aligned on an app. The public health system also does struggle but no where near as bad as home, and I can get seen at the A&E in under 5 minutes, I recently got a load of dental work done root canal and fillings and several appointments and all cost me less than 70 eur.

    Here I can actually live a life where I see myself growing and building a family or owning a dog or socializing or eating out a few times a week... All things that seemed (or were) impossible when barely able to afford an overpriced mouldy room I'm a shared house in Cork.

    It's absolute madness that Ireland is ran the way it is and the majority of people will vote these same fuckers in again and again."

    It's from this which is M Martin defending the FFG **** show.

    https://www.reddit.com/r/ireland/comments/1fjqvqw/rte_news_challenges_michael_martin_if_ireland_is/



  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,422 ✭✭✭SuperBowserWorld


    I think the hardest thing for FF and FG to swallow is that they have been shown up to be exactly the same party, and nothing will change under either party. Their supporters will throw all their toys out of the pram and blame the greens and the far right, or the EU, or Ukraine or Israel etc etc. But they've basically have tons of money to sort out problems and they are paralyzed on what to do, and are unable to invest it wisely.

    FF = FG

    The emperor never had any new clothes



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,882 ✭✭✭pureza


    Ah thats rubbish

    PR allows you to vote for a party or individual to keep the other out

    As Pope Francis said the other day,if you don't like the choice,you go for the lesser of two evils



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,127 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    but given the choice between them or a SF led govt, the FFG option is far more stable I would say.

    Bolding is mine. The poster very clearly states which option he/she would choose.
    If you choose it, you are by the very definition of the word 'supporting it'



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,882 ✭✭✭pureza




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 70,127 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    When the votes are being counted they don't have a wee pile for those with gritted teeth…sorry.

    Now I am not going down another alley with the word fascists.



  • Advertisement
Advertisement