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⚠️ Potential flooding Saturday 05-10-24
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02-10-2024 11:24pm#1
⚠️The charts have taken a fairly steep upturn in rainfall predictions for Saturday into Sunday and have been steadily increasing the rainfall predictions over the last few runs. LP set to move close to Ireland towards the weekend with trailing fronts being drawn up over the country from a S , SE direction. Looks very heavy with flooding a distinct possibility in southern counties I reckon as can be seen in the charts below most notably the most recent ICON-EU which I find is more conservative with rainfall predictions usually. A lot of this rain falling in 10 to 15hrs giving at least an Orange warning in some southern counties and other counties getting a yellow warning likely and ICON out in front being very close to a red warning perhaps on tonight's charts but in general atm the main models firmly in an Orange warning level ( close to high end maybe ).
Could have some active type convective weather also with intense local downpours and the parameters showing thunderstorms possible on Fri Night into Saturday.
Gusty windy day overland coupled with the heavy rain with some localised strong convective gusts.
Need to keep a close eye on this weekend.
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Very high totals showing up and now more including up along the western half of the country brining more counties into the Orange warning range I would think especially with so much water set to fall in a relatively short timeframe. Loks like the triple point could be drawn up over the country also. Thunderstorm potential especially in the SW and along the W Fri night into Sat morning, continuing threat on Saturday. some very big local convective falls of rain. High ground seeing totals up around 100 mm by Sat evening giving huge run off the mountains and surely causing difficulties downstream. Windy blustery day but below yellow warning level on its own.
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Some of the latest model output. Bit of a spread even at this stage in where will get the heavy rain. The SW and W look fairly certain to receive the heaviest, parts of the South fairly high chance of heavy rain and will see how the rest of the country fares in later runs. That is some chart from ICON EU, not one to overdo rainfall predictions but this is way out in front.
A chance of thunderstorms and very heavy convective rainfall remains up along the Western seaboard and into the SW and W mainly from Fri night into Saturday.
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The higher Res models are really dialing it up especially over the mountain ranges in the SW and W. That would be some flow of water off the mountains, could be hearing of roads and bridges washed out and possible land slippage, places like Kenmare would need to be very prepared.
GFS I suspect might be an outlier this evening
This multi model did well last week, an average of the Hi Res models at this stage.
UKMO HD only up to Sat 12 at this stage.
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An indoors type of evening tomorrow, oof
Have a weather station?, why not join the Ireland Weather Network - http://irelandweather.eu/
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Some models have pulled back the heaviest rain into the SW and W but even at this stage a bit of a spread. Some models showing a bit less rainfall than a couple of days ago .I think if you compare all the models then the GFS might be underplaying it a bit although is back on the latest 06Z somewhat again to what it was showing a couple of days ago . Even the Hi Res models showing a bit of a spread on where will get the heavy rainfall. In general good large of Kerry and Cork well within Orange warning level with very heavy rain falling on the mountains, the West in general looks in yellow warning level with some very heavy rain over mountains but ICON showing the W to be in Orange warning level I reckon backed up by UKMO UK and AROME Orange level more towards west Galway ( big county ).
ICON also showing the likes of Sligo and Donegal in at least Yellow level.
So could yet see some more counties added to the warning level. Will see if Galway is added to Orange later.
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Cant see any mention of thunderstorm predictions ( making me a bit nervous 😁) but I think the parameters are there and the index's are showing possibility of thunderstorm activity up along the SW and W in particular, some moving along the coasts and inland in the early hours accompanied by very heavy convective showers, some activity Saturday during the day maybe in the SW also.
Instability in the form of a warm nose of supersaturated air moving up alongside and over Ireland in the small hours aided by low level shear and an amount of Deep layer shear especially being aided by Orographic lift. Lapse rates decent, PWAT looking high so under some of those convective type showers got get high localised rainfall totals in a short space of time. Could be a fairly lively night / early morning especially in the SW and . Wil see.
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These are the 2 lots of rain on latest satellite. I take it the one to the South is going to go through a period of intensification tonight and the one to the West brushes past us. Is this correct? The only certain thing is tomorrow will be a wet day.
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