Mayo back up to five seats for next general election

Michael Ring finally ends the "Will he won't he" fanfango by plumping for the latter, as was looking increasingly likely the closer we got to the election.

According to this

There are three frontrunners to replace Mr Ring on the ballot for Fine Gael at the next election, alongside incumbent junior minister Alan Dillon.

This includes Ballina councillor John O’Hara, Claremorris councillor Alma Gallagher, and Keira Keogh from Westport — who narrowly missed out in the local elections last month.

I'm thinking they might run Dillon, JOH and one other for geographical balance

I'd say the happiest person at this news is Lisa Chambers, should be very confident of getting back in now…

Both Duffy and Martina Jennings of Mayo Roscommon Hospice are running for FG

Jennings obviously a great recruit for FG, talk she might even top the poll. Not so sure about Duffy's appeal beyond Ballina area but he's surely stronger than the alternatives of Mulherin & O'Hora.

Does this slate of condidates give FG a realistic shot at three seats? This guy thinks they'll do it

If Dillon & Jennings are at the top of the poll that's theoretically a big fount of transfers for Duffy. But with FF & FG now on the same side, they will presumably also be transferring heavily to Chambers & Calleary, particularly the former…

Hard to call who loses out if FG do pick up three. You'd think there has to be at least one left/opposition seat, and if there's only one that surely has to be RCW. I think in the end Calleary would edge out Chambers if there is only one FF seat…

Could Mayo be set to throw a late curveball?

Irish Election Projections predicting Lawless of Aontu will take the last seat