Election to be called Fri - predict outcome

ffg will stick together now, well into the 30's, as one of the main reasons for the confidence and supply was to try prevent any sort of alternative government from forming, in particular a sf one, and its working, but of course sf have done an amazing job of wrecking their own chances to. under this situation, any alternative would require a significantly high number of votes, a near majority, in order to make it impossible for this dynamic to continue, i.e. for continual ffg governments, hence why we re probably gonna keep defaulting ffg governments well into the 30's, and maybe beyond…

Change just for change's sake, without a demand or vision from a viable alternative is never going to be attractive.

People on here have to remember that Ireland isn't actually doing that bad at the moment, especially when compared to our neighbour the UK.

This Govt was born during covid, and saw the massive spike in cost of living that impacted globally when Ukraine was invaded- and the Govt did throw money at it, pandemic payments, ESB/Gas payments etc all while lowering headline tax bills. And now after all that splurging where are we....actually quite financially sound, with a surplus and arguing how to spend billions in Apple windfall tax.

Compare to the UK who limped through Covid, squandered billions, had Truss wreck people's mortgages over 1 month tenure and now is facing billions of pounds of cuts.

As others have said here before, if you're a homeowner and healthy Ireland is fantastic. The crisis in house prices and hospitals don't register. So why change? What's the big benefit in suddenly going to an unknown that are pretty much nowadays saying, we'll do status quo only better.

Can't see FG doing well at all, Harris is very unlikable and provokes a strong response with certain groups, despite the blurb SF are hugely popular among those who don't care what press is and FF will be too, Indies and the likes of Anotu will have their followers too, the Greens/Labour may not survive in current form much longer - just opinion etc.

Interesting times.

…and again, you ll find many ffg supporters continually trying to paint a rosie picture, yes ireland is in fact doing well, for those whos needs are being met, particularly their housing and health care needs, and other critical needs, but ireland is really not doing well for those whos needs are not being met!

these issues are in fact fundamental in nature, and ffg are never actually going to change their approach to these issues, i.e. we must now prepare your kids, grand kids, nieces and nephews for a deeply uncertain future, particularly in relation to critical needs such as housing and health care.

again, when a government runs a surplus, its actually a government taking money out of the economy, i.e. surpluses are not always a good thing, and sometimes running a slight deficit is actually good! but dont worry, thats never gonna change either, unless theres another catastrophic event such as another pandemic!

yes we know the uk is fcuked, we know this!

cause staying the same, is definitely gonna lead to changes, definitely!

again, dont worry, theres not gonna be any changes in irish government formations for a very long time, so dont worry about it!

fg will more than likely be in government with ff for a long time to come, theyre grand, both parties will prop each other up until its impossible to do so, again, the whole idea of the confidence and supply

I'm no fan of FG, but they seem to be devoid of any talent (excluding Paschal) is there anyone else? Honest question, Carroll-MacNeill seems extremely dis-ingenious, less said about Justice minister the better,Peter Burke….. MEP's Carberry, Maria Walsh…..i'd like to know who the genuine talent is in that party?

I'm hoping it's not just a FF/FG behemoth, I'd like to either see the Greens returned with them, unlikely, or the SDs/LAB making up the numbers.

I just can't see any way for SF, with their current woes, being able to steady thier own ship and also steer a course to government. They've just capitulated.

First off,let me say I think you're a good poster and generally make your points well..Based on that and you seem fairly sure on this I'll double check literature,I won't vote for him if there's any nonsense about right to life or anything like that.

Could you be open to the fact that young,smart,up and coming Aontu candidates are moving away from what we just mentioned and towards what they're actually hearing on doorsteps?

Edit,

Just had a look again there.

Main headings are immigration, housing,health,crime and some local issues.

No mention of abortion or anything " life" related.

I'll pm to you if you like to have a look.

That's exactly why I said they'd probably like a term in opposition to rebuild new members profiles. Varadkar, Coveney and Richard Bruton have been the face of FG for 2 decades, all going. In fact 15 of their 35 are not standing. They need to rebuild, and while the old saying of a day in power is better than a year in opposition, being out of spotlight might suit them as they rebuild

Ye listen "adorable" and "cute" isn't gonna cut it with people who will actually vote, or if people are voting for him on that basis, it's a sad indictment of today's youth

He's not, or well, doesn't come across as a natural leader. Being honest, he doesn't strike me even as being a good local rep. But they are just my views.

There are ALWAYS surprises in an election.

Opinion polls generally don't predict the outcome.

Expect the unexpected.

You're correct with the Aontu logo,that is on it and it's Life,Unity,Economic Justice.

The Life part and the Unity part (if this is in relation to United Ireland) are of no interest to me and my peer group.Its at odds with everything else on the literature which is more specific to what the candidate stands for.

This feeds into my point and illustrates exactly what i was suggesting, that young,up and coming,smart,new politicians are moving away from what the party was about originally and more towards what people on the ground are concerned with.

If I get the chance again I will.

If would feel a bit weird bringing something so off the wall up with a candidate,I would look and sound like a bit of a loon but I absolutely will if I have the opportunity.

Always party first, whoever writes the party mandate runs the show. Same for all the others.

Its highly likely we will get 40k homes in 2025, probably 33k to 40k this year.

We have 62k commencements in the last 12 months alone, with 15k in September. We havent seen 60k commencements since the Celtic Tiger days.

All markers are pointing upwards on housing delivery.

25% of 18-24 voters in that same poll will give 1st preference votes for FG or FF and that's growing.

The Greens have delivered more public transport for rural Ireland in the last 4-5 years than at any other time in the history of the state.

They have reduced public transport fares by 20% and 50% for under-18's.

What taxes exactly have they raised?

People give out about the Greens, but when challenged on actual specifics they come up short and give overly generalised rants about "Green Policy". It is very much an emotive response rather than a logical one.

I'd be wary of polls, especially around younger voters, they've yet to get it right, can remember being surveyed long ago, wouldn't have been accurate or reflective.

This.

On mature reflection when people actually go to the polls and look back over the last 5 years, what a ride it has been.

First Covid, then the war in Ukraine, along with a massive increase in migration.

Do the government get an A+? No, but all in all they haven't done too badly either, and certainly better than our near neighbours both North of the border and East over the Irish Sea.

The electorate gave the government a nice kicking during the referendums and let off some steam.

But maybe they have forgiven them now and on a more mature reflection may well stick with FF and FG to lead us for the next 5 years.

Given every international metric, Ireland is doing very well. It has its issues, with health, housing and migration. But these are issues that impact every well-developed Western country.

And anyway, who is the alternative? The band of chancers and ex-terrorists called SF, who can't even get their own house in order! They spent the last 4 years shouting and roaring, giving the impression that Ireland is a failed state (it's anything but). Polls were riding high for them, but the government knuckled down and got to work, while SF TD's were out measuring the carpets and curtains for their new ministerial offices. They got lazy and took the eye off the ball. Losers medals for them again.

So given we don't really have an alternative, its FF and FG with another, possibly the SD's or some Independent grouping.

Yes, a really powerful message indeed

How the hell did you get to posting that message from me posting a link from the Indo claiming people wanted more action done with housing?

Enda was extremely charismatic man, may not have come across like that on tv, but irl he was very sound, genuinely interested in people he met. He was decent.

They're the same as Renua in that everyone knows there is only one reason the party exists - abortion - even if they try to deny it like Renua did.

Plus the membership attracts the hardline anti-choicers so if they do ever get a non-Toibin TD, and he or she tries to equivocate on abortion, they'll go mad

You would be foolish to vote for Aontu unless more (much more) restrictive abortion laws is a high priority for you.

It's as if the crash and the bank guarantee never happened…