General Election 2024 - Predict the Result

I have never lived under a government that I actually voted for, and I imagine this time will be no different. Another FG/FF reacharound is about all we can expect, unfortunately.

Think it's time for Labour and SDs to get over it and come together to make a decent party either in opposition or government .

(Sorry Cluedo, I know you want seat predictions . )

Maybe knock that first digit off the Greens from the previous result, the dildo of consequences is coming in unlubed for the GP this time.

Hopefully. With barbs.. but there's still a gullible greenie/left group who own nothing/do nothing that is affected by the looney taxes stick, and they'll undoubtedly vote in a few of them off the bleating about the Spanish floods all the while with their hand out for more handouts.

That's pretty much what I was saying. Whether by being king maker or because it suited FFG, the GP got more of their significant legislation through than either of their larger partners.

Where I disagree with your post is on them all being loaded. Most greenies I know have more or less nothing and don't really participate in business/industry. A soft job which produces pretty much nothing of value, social housing over decades, one small newish electric car (fully grant aided) They'd be the hallmarks of the admittedly rural GP people I know. Obviously I accept that this isn't a representative sample nationally.

Fine Gael largest party. FG + FF majority without 3rd party support.

Well I'm sure some are, and yes I think there's definitely an urban upper middle class green voter who can afford the extra taxes and doesn't ultimately care about anyone who isn't like them. What % that is I don't know.

As for not living in the real world, well that's a matter of opinion.

My opinion would broadly concur with that pov.

The brief that you didn't bother with yourself. Perhaps all of the other posters are going to make their predictions later as well!

If you think the Green vote is coming from social housing you simply don't have a clue.

Try re-reading what i wrote. All my local GP activists are in social housing bar one. I did say that this wouldn't be representative.

Greens down to 1 is unlikely but the more interesting thing is the gap between FG and FF.

I think they should be within a couple of seats of each other but in constituencies where there is 3 seats between 2 parties if one party gains more of those than the other the gap could get relatively large.

It raises the question at what point is rotating Taoiseach off the table. i think in the 17 seat difference the bigger party unlikely to give it up. I think up to 10 it's on the table, more than that and it will be interesting negotiations.

I find this line of logic difficult to understand... you are advocating for voting for literally anyone on the ballot who is inexperienced rather than those who are experienced. It seems unlikely this will lead to a better outcome for anyone.

I have my own issues with sone government policies and decisions, however, if I and others do as you suggest I'd anticipate that I'd be a lot more unhappy.

You realise that the civil servants, the people manning each department largely don't change between elections? I disagree that every department is a **** show, but even if you think it is... would a load of inexperienced politicians likely help ?

TDs are voted for by the people in their local areas to represent them in the Dáil.

Government Ministers are a bit like the managers of different parts of the country. They are chosen by the Taoiseach from among the TDs. Each Minister is in charge of a particular area, like health, education, or transport. Their job is to make decisions and run their departments to make things better for the people. So, if we follow your logic, the Taoiseach would have to pick Ministers from a pool of inexperienced TDs.

To me, that sounds like a recipie for disaster, particularly if many of those unknown faces are not aligned to larger political parties and we end up with a rainbow coalition.

….

Labour resurgence, Sinn Fein decline, Fiana Fail top dog in numbers, Fine Gael stagnating, and the Greens bobbing along at the bottom of the tank.

It's going to be another FF/FG coalition with Sinn Fein losing seats to independents thanks to its position on mass immigration.

FG 41

FF 45

Lab 5

SD 8

Aontu 3

SF 35

GP 3

PBP 3

Ind 31

What the hell do we want an extra 14 TDs for anyway.

Hopefully next time they run a referendum they can address the number of TDs per population otherwise the number of TDs will keep rising.

I've often wondered if this would pass. In theory it seems everyone would support it, everyone has a solid suspicion that there are far too many TDs, especially in other parts of the country. In practise when people find out that it's actually their town, county, urban estate whatever, is one whose representation will plausibly be cut, will they still support it?

What have Sinn Fein flipped flopped on?

All I've ever heard from them is they want the current immigration rules implemented

Have they changed from this? Any links?

Andwhere exactly has ‘experience’ got us? Children’s hosp costs, the health service gaps, education challenges, Housing debacle- moreover of the same?

" TD per x amount of people if the population "

But is that not the basis of our representative democracy? How else would you arrange it?

One way would be say a fixed number of say 200 TDs, with constituencies set based on 1/200th or 0.5% ± a tolerance of population per seat (currently 26,300 but would be allowed rise in proportion to population).

A county like Offaly would be made up of say 3 TDs (single constituency), Kildare would be 9 TDs (2 or 3 constituencies), etc. These happen to match the 2024 seats, but would not change with a rising population change except if population distribution changes too.