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In the event of united Ireland could DUP attract a significant vote in the Republic / 26 Counties ?

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Comments

  • Moderators, Sports Moderators Posts: 29,373 Mod ✭✭✭✭Podge_irl


    That the DUP would receive zero support in Ireland has very little to do with their past and everything to do with their present.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,807 ✭✭✭pureza




  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,423 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    No, I just happen to think that the DUP will score votes among FG support before others.



  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 42,648 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    Let me properly understand your claim here: are you saying that the DUP will get more votes among FG supporters before they get votes from supporters of other parties or are you saying that FG supporters would choose to vote towards DUP before other parties because there's a massive difference between the two claims, both of which have no real basis and I would hazard a guess that your SF bias is clouding your judgement here (you want it to be so).

    There isn't even evidence that the DUP in their current form would remain viable in a UI and the only thing keeping them afloat at the moment is resistance against the rise in popularity of SF.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,423 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The OP is based on them surviving a UI.

    And I think their vote here will come from FG’s support base first.



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  • Moderators, Politics Moderators Posts: 42,648 Mod ✭✭✭✭Seth Brundle


    If the DUP were to survive a UI then they will attract conservative voters and potentially many on the far right would align with those views, not FG



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,033 ✭✭✭donegal_man


    Honestly I think once a UI bedded in and the DUP adjusted to the new reality the first thing we'd see is a name change to something like Heritage. Then the new generation of members who didn't have the baggage of the past would start appealing to the socially conservative Protestant voters, just as Renua appeal to socially conservative Catholic voters. Next thing you know they've joined forces as New Heritage and they're the Irish version of America's 'Christian' right.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,487 ✭✭✭AyeGer


    Maybe for younger people, but anyone who grew up listening to the likes of Paisley, Peter Robinson, Nigel Dodds, Gregory Campbell or Sammy Wilson would struggle to vote DUP.

    Sinn Fein are in a similar position with unionists, for them it would be like asking us to vote for the PUP.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,000 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    I'm partial to your abracadabra,

    I'm raptured by the joy of it all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,847 ✭✭✭Suckler


    Edwin Poots' son was in the news lately, not related to politics, but it brought back the memories of his DUP dad and grandad.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,608 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    The mid 70s were a time of high tensions and Poots had family tragedies. He also was the target of an attack when an INLA gunman opened fire on him when he was driving through the nationalist Markets area of Belfast.

    Quote: "His son Edwin later told this newspaper that he was so angered by the attack on his father than he seriously considered joining a paramilitary organisation, but was talked out of it by the Rev Ian Paisley. Edwin said his father told him over the years that bitterness should not be indulged in and that it wasn't Catholics who shot at him, but a terrorist."

    So two sides to the story. If that is the worst sectarianism you can find in the DUP, what do you think of the sectarianism in SF, where some members at that time in the 70s were terrorists?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,847 ✭✭✭Suckler


    Ah yes; deflect and point at others than reflect on the inherent sectarianism that you love to support and justify. Classic DUP blinkered stuff.

    Willy Mcrea was certainly ok with DUP members being members of terrorist groups….for a start.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,608 ✭✭✭Francis McM


    Stop deflecting to McCrea now. Anyway, neither McCrea or Poots were members of any terrorist organizations, never mind terrorists themselves. Contrast that to SF : how many were in the IRA? We know Gerry A. was not because he said so.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,847 ✭✭✭Suckler


    ”Stop deflecting so I can deflect on what you had originally posted”.
    Pathetic.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,847 ✭✭✭Suckler


    Your also conveniently forgetting in your Poots apology that he said what I quoted in 1975…..The INLA attacked him in 1976….Did he have a magical premonition in making his statement? It had such an effect on him, he'd came up with it even before the attack……

    (Or you're clueless as usual)

    Post edited by Suckler on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,847 ✭✭✭Suckler


    The same McCrea that supported (but definitely wasn't in) the LVF and called the UK for Air strikes on the Republic in '86? No….not a sectarian/terrorist bone in him.

    And as for Poots, the paramilitary apologist…"They're nothing more that little old men clubs"…..



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,487 ✭✭✭AyeGer


    Remember McCrea sharing a platform with LVF leader Billy Wright, when Wright was at the height of his murderous LVF days.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,837 ✭✭✭BalcombeSt4


    I don't think it would be likely, but there is enough Unionists in the south & enough right-wing journalists like Jim Cusack & Kevin Myers who have always been sympathetic to the Unionist cause, which could sway enough voters to vote DUP that could get them seats to be a junior partner in a coalition government.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,345 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    In a united Ireland, if the DUP still existed and still retained the kind of support in the six counties that they do today, that alone would give them enough seats to qualify them as a potential partner in a coalition goverment.

    In the UK general election just gone by, the DUP got 22% of the NI vote. That would be the equivalent of 8% of an all-Ireland vote. The Greens, Labour and the PDs have all entered coalitions on the back of lower vote-shares than that.

    Honestly, I don't seem them getting enough additional votes/seats in the twenty-six counties to change the big picture very much. 9% or 10% of the vote doesn't make you a more credible coalition partner than 8% does. But if they could get a material degree of votes/seats outside the six counties, that might make it a bit more politically feasible for other parties to take them on as coalition partners.

    But only a tiny bit more feasible. While the numbers might add up, there'd be a huge cultural problem. The DUP's core values of aggression, obstruction, opposition to consensus, etc, would make them a deeply unsuitable smaller partner in any coalition arrangement — you'd rather coalesce with People Before Profit, to be honest. Plus, I think their attitudes and values would make the role of junior coalition partner deeply unattractive to the DUP anyway. They'd much rather remain incorruptible and pure and on the margins.

    Post edited by Peregrinus on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,000 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    but there is enough Unionists in the south

    Really? you mean there is a sizeable population in the 26 counties who want to rejoin the UK? Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

    & enough right-wing journalists like Jim Cusack & Kevin Myers who have always been sympathetic to the Unionist cause

    Jim Cusack is from Belfast.

    Kevin Myers is both English and a professional contrarian.

    I'm partial to your abracadabra,

    I'm raptured by the joy of it all.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,837 ✭✭✭BalcombeSt4


    Well, before partition Dublin had a sizeable Uninoist minority and smaller minority in Cork, after partition the Unionist votes were transerfered to Fine Gael (Cumman na Gael then) so it became harder to keep track of where the voting went to after that. And when I say unionist I don't simply mean people who want Ireland to join the UK but those who want a closer relationship with Britain & to rejoin the British Commonwealth of Nations. And other than their Unionist position the DUP could strike a nerve with the Irish right, people who are pro-life, anti-Socialist, anti-LGBT rights and anti-immigration, that's basically what the DUP stand for in their internal politics, and there is certainly enough people in the 26 counties who share these views. Again I say it is unlikely but certainly not impossible. Do you believe it's impossible?

    Yes, but Cusack & Myers both wrote columns for southern based newspapers. I mean, Sean MacStofain was also born in England that didn't disqualify him from becoming leader of the PIRA, I think they used the FIFA Granny rule for that one.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 37,000 ✭✭✭✭Hotblack Desiato


    Whatever about closer links with the UK (Bre-entry would sort that) there's no evidence that there's any appetite for the RoI to join the British Commonwealth.

    We're back into the supposed fantasies of FG voters again. It doesn't wash. DUP are just too toxic, are openly anti-Irish, and the small ultra-conservative vote here (that Renua and Aontu both failed to make much of, despite lacking the above impediments) is at completely the wrong end of this island's religious divide.

    I'm partial to your abracadabra,

    I'm raptured by the joy of it all.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,841 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    The problem with your analysis is that there are more people who are pro-life, anti-Socialist, anti-LGBT rights and anti-immigration who have supported Sinn Fein in the last election than who have ever supported Fine Gael.

    The thing is that all of those traits are associated with uber-nationalist parties. Sinn Fein is being ripped apart by these tensions between their different leanings. Those nationalists who are pro-life, etc., are moving to independents, Aontu, and smaller parties like Independent Ireland.

    None of them will ever support DUP, because even though many of those SF supporters hold similar views on those issues as the DUP, the nationalist divide keeps them apart. If you want an example of this type of situation, have a look at Belgium, where the country is divided along nationalist lines. Right-wing Flemish voters would never vote for the right-wing party from the other side.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,841 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    https://sluggerotoole.com/2024/11/08/the-arins-survey-has-some-serious-weight-issues/

    These are quite some serious allegations about the ARINS survey.

    You will recall the jubilation and excitement that an increase to 30% support for a united Ireland caused. Well, it seems that may have been a mirage, and down simply to methodology rather than any actual change.

    One thing the author misses is that if the 2022 survey was based on 2011 census data, and the 2023 survey was based on 2021 census data, as they allege, that means that the increase of support from 27% to 30% occurred over a decade.

    At that rate, getting to 55% (a level that would indicate a poll is likely to succeed) would take a further 8.5 decades, leaving us with a border poll sometime around 2109. Might as well wait until the bicentenary.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 287 ✭✭Madeleine Birchfield


    The DUP will only ever be relevant if unionist identity stays strong in Ulster. If within a generation or two, they begin to get comfortable with an Irish identity then there will be no point in having a unionist party, and so the DUP will either have to rebrand away from its unionist roots, which means it won't be the DUP anymore, or be resigned to irrelevance.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 187 ✭✭Irish History


    On a point of principle, and grammar - Ireland will be reunited or reunified - not "united".

    Ireland was obviously already united or unified before it was artificially partitioned just a few decades ago by the enemy invader and occupier England/Britain.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 30,841 ✭✭✭✭blanch152


    It only operated as a united entity under British rule. Prior to the British, the island was a disorganised mess, with various people claiming dominion but no united rule.

    It is also over 100 years since it was so united, not "just a few decades ago".

    Important that historical facts are maintained.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,345 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    It only operated as a united entity under British rule. Prior to the British, the island was a disorganised mess, with various people claiming dominion but no united rule.

    Prior to the English, Ireland was a disorganised mess, with no unitary government for the whole island.

    So, of course, was Britain. Great Britain didn't become a single political entity until 1707, about a century later than Ireland.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 73,423 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    The 'Ireland was never united until the British came' is a favoured taunt of belligerent Unionists, another point of commonality with those who engage in the same here if there is a UI.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 27,345 ✭✭✭✭Peregrinus


    Honestly, I've never understood the "Ireland was never politically united unti the British came along" point. As already explained, neither was Britain. So what?

    Ireland wasn't politically united until the Tudors completed their conquest, but it was culturally united — a common language, common literature, code of laws, shared identity, etc. No nation is united until it's united, just as no nation is independent until it's independent. But, seriously, so what?



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