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The 2024 General Election in Kerry

  • 10-11-2024 11:14pm
    #1
    Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,874 ✭✭✭✭


    How do people think it will go.

    I think it will very much stay the same.

    The Healy Raes are not going anywhere.

    I think there is enough FG support within the county to win Billy O'Shea a seat seeing as he is the only candidate.

    Probably the same for PA Daly with SF, even though I have heard that there is another SF running.

    FF on the other hand are running three plus you have gene pool FF in Tom McElstrom running as an independent.

    They could spread themselves too thin, although I doubt thin enough to miss out on a seat.



Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,252 ✭✭✭✭ejmaztec


    I don't know why anyone would vote for Tom McEllistrim whatever party he was a member of. 😛



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,487 ✭✭✭Quitelife


    You’d be thinking the two Healy Raes are safe , Norma Foley will also be a dead cert , there’s enough rich people to vote in whoever Fine Gael have even a footballer like Billy O se , Pa Daly is probably the most capable of the present TDs so that’s the 5 that should make it …..



  • Posts: 133 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Mcellstrim went for the council vote last time and lost.

    He was canvassing outside Edward Street post office for the unemployed and temporary protection vote.

    Not a hope for the GE.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,239 ✭✭✭xxyyzz


    Michelle Keane is some dose.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 285 ✭✭Salvadoor




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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,164 ✭✭✭lottpaul


    Michael Healy Rae, Norma Foley and Pa Daly should be safe. Danny should get in on Michael's surplus or when the various other indos are eliminated but he's the weaker link.

    Billy O'Shea might be the one to watch. Many of the grassroots FG were not happy with the imposition of a candidate who had never stood for election before, despite being asked repeatedly. He didn't impress me on Radio Kerry this morning - seemed to just trot out the briefing notes he was given. Then the attitude of Sean Kelly and some others of "well, he's the only FG candidate so you'll just have to support him" rubbed people the wrong way. I think Cahill might run him close and it will depend on the eliminations of Labour, the Greens, Independent Ireland etc.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,239 ✭✭✭xxyyzz


    Why did FG only put one candidate forward? Is there a consensus from the grass roots that someone else should have run?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,193 ✭✭✭cute geoge


    Well if he had pulled 8 more votes he would have got in to county council ,i was surprised by his strong vote but it shows name recognisation is so important for election ,he has independent Ireland behind him now so he will get a strong vote and just might maybe be fighting for last seat with DHR & FG canidate,people have said he got as much done as a lot of the rest of them when a previous TD but is not able to articulate himself enough.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,874 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    It's a constituency stacked with a core independent (HR) vote and a strong SF vote.

    That leaves at most 3 and likely only 2 seats for everyone else.

    Even though previously FG ran more than one candidate this time with no incumbent I guess tthey thought they might be stretched with more than one.

    As for the selection of Billy O'Shea I don't know.

    Is there enough core FG votes in the constituency to get him elected anyway?

    Post edited by Fr Tod Umptious on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,239 ✭✭✭xxyyzz


    Yeah, I just thought it was strange given that FF are running 3 candidates and 2 for SF. Presumably Brendan Griffin would have walked in if he was running so I think there is strong FG support but I don't know anything about Billy O'Shea. Mike Kennelly isn't running this year either, he would have picked up a lot of North Kerry votes you'd imagine.



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,011 ✭✭✭Radio5


    How much of the Griffin vote was a personal vote and how much is FG vote may be key. Strange that FG didn't run anyone in NK if only to secure the vote there. FG have no councillor in Killarney and no prospects coming through. It's a gamble to go with a 'celebrity' candidate and it may backfire.

    The 5th seat could be crucial in national terms.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,193 ✭✭✭cute geoge


    Listening to the debates on Kerry Today, Cian Prendeville of People Before Profit is a real charismatic speaker ,a pity he is not representing a main stream party because he would be a great representative for this county if elected.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,800 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    What is it that would lead someone in rural Kerry to vote for SF, out of interest?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,487 ✭✭✭Quitelife


    Historically many in Kerry have strong Republican views with a large anti treaty side during the civil war and events like the Ballyseedy massacre during that time leading to long memories particularly in Tralee & North Kerry and people like Martin Ferris carried on the fight in recent times .
    Fine Gael have done little for the people of Kerry who suffered badly with emigration for decades and footballers like Jimmy Deenihan and now Billy O Se wouldn’t be up to much politically bar giving out a few lotto grants and standing in for a couple of pictures .



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,800 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Thanks, so the support is linked to reunification ideology?

    Although FG also support this. FF have a border poll more on the long finger I think.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 769 ✭✭✭barryribs


    Reunification under FG, in their current guise, would have us singing GSTK and rejoining the Commonwealth



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,252 ✭✭✭✭ejmaztec


    I think it was probably Michael and Danny Healy-Rae's entry in a previous general election that brought Jimmy Deenihans decades of doing nothing to a close, although it took people a long time to get the message. 😛



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,800 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    Leo wanted a united ireland but said the time was not right yet. Its unlikely that there would be a significant majority in favour of it by the end the next govt term.

    Taking on the north is one expensive project and our economy is about to be hit by Trump's america, in a way we have not seen in decades.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 769 ✭✭✭barryribs


    Leo also promised to abolish USC during the lifetime of his government 8 years ago. FG financial policy has been made up on the fly, Simon made 3 separate commitments in less than a week, just 3 weeks removed from the budget.

    The cost of a united Ireland shouldn't even come into the discussion when we have an opportunity to end more than 100 years of partition and occupation of the 6 counties.

    But Prof Fitzgerald will be rolled out again next week in the Irish times to remind us of how bad our lives will be if we do achieve a united ireland. It's just a shame he wasn't as forthcoming when he was head of the ESRI during the previous crash. We can only hope that any reunification doesn't impact his wife's pension, or his brothers property business



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,487 ✭✭✭Quitelife


    A selfish way of looking at a United ireland , the people of the 6 counties should be looked after whatever it costs , the EU gave a lot of money to the German unification fund and I’m sure similar will be given in the event of a united ireland .



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,800 ✭✭✭BlueSkyDreams


    It depends on your motives and priorities.

    If a UI is top of your list, then the cost may well be worth it.

    If you are not that fussed either way about a UI, and a lot of irish are not, and you just want a stable govt, better job opportunites for your kids and investment in your own local area, a de-risking of terrorist activity emerging from the north and so forth; its easy to see why you would not be in favour of a UI.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 28,797 ✭✭✭✭zell12


    Are Kerry voters not embarrassed when Healy Rae says gems like 'god controls the climate' ?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,252 ✭✭✭✭ejmaztec


    Billy O'Shea must be desperate out canvassing in the slashing down rain with Jimmy Deenihan backing him up in North Kerry. The pair didn't make it through the gate as our dog told them to feck off in dog language.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,193 ✭✭✭cute geoge


    With the last 30 years none of the government parties furthered the demands after the lobbying for dredging the mouth of the River Feale .The river is just outside Denihans door ,he is just a joke



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 769 ✭✭✭barryribs


    The way I see it going;
    Pa Daly is a shoe in, but I don't think there is enough transfers to bring Stephanie O' Shea in.
    MHR's vote will fall but still plenty enough to get him in.
    Norma will get in by way of her profile and ministerial seat, which was FF's strategy all along.

    That leaves 2 seats;
    DHR will get less transfers but should be favoured for the 4th seat. The big unknown is the FF vote, Cahill and Gordon-Kellher could end up tripping each other up and I think this will be the 5th seat with Foley's votes determining it.


    The FG vote (which is the only thing that he is offering) isn't strong enough to carry Billy O'Shea, although they dodged a bullet with the other local business man they were strongly linked to. McEllistrim will pick up some of the HR vote but hasn't a hope, pitiful that he is looking for a #2 vote.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,193 ✭✭✭cute geoge


    I can not see why you should dismiss Mcellstrim off hand,he has a big name recognisation plus Independent Ireland are offering people an alternative to vote for who may be involved in government.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 769 ✭✭✭barryribs


    The name recognition is probably a bad thing in his particular case. He's 25/1 in the bookies if you fancy it



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,011 ✭✭✭Radio5


    Not an FG fan but I think Jimmy Deenihan can take some credit for the progressing of Tralee by-pass and the investment in opening up Killarney House and Gardens, both of which have brought benefits to the county.

    The drop to 5 seats in 2016 changed things in Kerry. Danny Healy-Rae was a last minute candidate that time, when Tom Fleming (Independent but ex-FF) wasn't going again and Labour didn't run any candidate in Killarney/East Kerry.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,487 ✭✭✭Quitelife


    Jimmy Deenihan was no good for North Kerry an area devastated by emigration for many years and he become even less relevant when it became county Kerry, a yes man for head office in Dublin who got in purely because he played football on a great Kerry team so voters reaped what they sowed . The opening of Killarney house and gardens means little to most people in North Kerry where he was from .



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,874 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    Opinion poll

    MHR on a whopping 27%

    Danny on 10% walking in on Michael's transfers.

    Norma Foley on 14%, Cahill 7%, Gordon - Kelleher 3%

    Billy O'Shea on 14%

    Pa Daly on 12% Stephanie O' Shea 3%

    So will there be a fight for the last seat?



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 769 ✭✭✭barryribs


    I'm surprised by this, I would have had Pa Daly slightly higher but Billy O Shea much lower



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,874 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    Well FG are still the most popular party in the country according to polls, and they are only running one candidate so it's not really a surprise.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 769 ✭✭✭barryribs


    They may be the most popular party, but they haven't a hope of keeping the same number of seats, let alone increase them, given the exodus of sitting TD's from politics.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,874 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    That's why running a single well known, centrally based candidate to try and retain the single seat that they have may prove a good idea.



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  • Moderators, Sports Moderators, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,638 Mod ✭✭✭✭yerwanthere123


    Still haven't made up my mind who to vote for, but bloody hell it's a sorry list 😞



  • Posts: 133 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Have to agree. Chose 1 to 3 and gave a 4 out of pity as the candidate keeps trying every election



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,874 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    Tally suggests that it will be between Cahill and Billy O'Shea for the final seat, but likely go to Cahill with transfers from Foley who should get in before that.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,252 ✭✭✭✭ejmaztec


    I wonder if Tom McEllistrim is going to ask for a recount? 😛



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 769 ✭✭✭barryribs


    Some surprising numbers on the first preference Vs 2020

    MHR : +1778
    DHR : -60
    Daly : -4086
    Foley: +3446

    Im surprised that MHR's vote has held up so well and thought Daly wouldn't have lost as much as he did. With Gordon-Kelleher now eliminated, it should bring Norma and Cahill enough I think



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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13 Timesheet


    MHR and Daly in, DHR still a few short but he will get there.

    The HR machine impressive as always.



  • Posts: 133 ✭✭ [Deleted User]


    Id have probably votes for II only for him being in the ticket



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,011 ✭✭✭Radio5


    Own goal for FG, one candidate was never going to be enough against a strong FF ticket. They've lost the seat and rightly annoyed party members and Councillors in Kerry - whom HQ will be asking to rebuild the party now. A double whammy.

    Listening to Maura Healy Rae on Radio Kerry, she didn't sound too impressed by the division of county in HR camp, noting that her father had just 1 local council area where he was to get no 1 from their supporters.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,252 ✭✭✭✭ejmaztec


    There's no doubt that FG screwed things up choosing that candidate. I don't know if they approached any sitting FG councillors to get one of them to stand, as at least they would have had a political track record. As far as Kerry's concerned it's fortunate that the biggest party has the biggest representation in the county.

    Edit.

    It seems from this later report that FG councillors were ignored.

    Kerry Fine Gael councillor blasts party’s election strategy | RadioKerry.ie | RadioKerry.ie

    Post edited by ejmaztec on


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 15,874 ✭✭✭✭Fr Tod Umptious


    Looks like Kerry will have four of their five TDs in government in some shape or form.

    Not bad going.



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,011 ✭✭✭Radio5


    3 in government and 1 in both government and opposition, even better.



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