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1st January 2025 - 8th January Snow Potential, Freezing Conditions - Discussion
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29-12-2024 6:06pm#1
Hi folks,
This is probably deserving of it's own thread at this point.
1st Janurary hazards:
- Snow (generally 1 - 5cm, higher on hills/mountains)
- Ice
2nd January - 8th January:
- Cold weather
- Frost and Ice
- Snow showers later in the period
Possible land warnings in the period:
Cold Weather/Low Temperature - Yellow
Snow and/or Ice - Yellow/Orange
We have two interesting things to watch from Wednesday.
(I'm not flooding the OP with different model runs, I'm sticking with GFS)
January 1st
Starting with New Year's Day a weather system will be moving in off the Atlantic and the northern side of this will be hitting a much colder airmass moving down from the Arctic. There will be plenty of moisture with the developing system as it moves close to or over Ireland and as the frontal zones meet the cold air the precipitation turns to snow firstly on the northern side of the system but on the western side also later on.
Current risk areas for 1 - 5cm of snow at low levels:
- Ulster
- Connaught
- North Munster
- Leinster
I don't expect the snow with this system to be particularly disruptive at this point. I suspect there is more likely to be a yellow warning issued rather than orange.
Lying snow is likely to be hanging around for quite a few days.
January 2nd onwards
After New Years Day, while there'll be some snow showers drifting in to northern counties most of the country will be mainly dry for a few days but it will be very cold especially at night under high pressure with clear skies and slack winds.
Very cold setup under high pressure…
Indicative night-time minimum temperatures will particularly low where snow has settled. Random selection for the 3rd of January but this will be the case probably all nights until at least Sunday:
Daytime temperatures are also going to really struggle to get above freezing everywhere from Thursday:
After the drier and very colkd few days things might get even more exciting for those who like this type of weather depending on how things evolve over the next couple of days.
And there are some interesting ways it could go starting to emerge for the latter part of the forecast period but that's more uncertain at this point. Here's a tease 😁
In summary a much, much colder period of icy winter weather starting New Year's Day and continuing for the forseeable future, there will be openings for snowfall throughout in various places. We just have to nail down the smaller scale specifics.
Exciting eh?😎
Post edited by DOCARCH on57
Comments
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The ECM joins the GFS and GEM in demolishing the Atlantic block by next Sunday. Based on today's model output, the midweek cold blast into North America fires up the jetstream acting as a slingshot for Atlantic lows to break across the Atlantic toward Ireland.
The icebox GFS op run was very much an outlier.
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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The CMA and KMA have gone the same way as the rest of this afternoon's model output. As Nacho alluded to in the last post, a regressing Greenland high has not helped. The primary cause of the breakdown imo is the cold plunge deep into North America which has fired up the jet and produced the familiar conveyer belt for Altantic Lows.
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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a fairly big downgrade to the longevity of this cold spell across the board apart from the GFS 12z operational which is not well supported, we need some major upgrades tomorrow or else the Atlantic once again will get the final laugh. Always seems to be the way for us.
Overall the ECM ensembles from the 12z are still in a better shape than the GFS which is really only going for a 3 day cold spell while the ECM is favouring a 5 to 6 day cold spell.
the uncertainty begins from Sunday 5th which is 6 days away, so I still believe there is a little bit of hope that this might fix itself early tomorrow. Tomorrow mornings runs will be critical.
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The 12z run from the new ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) AIFS model prolongs the coming week's cold spell well into the following week by keeping the heights in place over Greenland for longer, which serves to prevent a quicker breakdown
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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The 18z GEFS ensembles are cooler than the 12z generally from Wednesday afternoon through and beyond next weekend. A massive 16-17c spread from Sunday. A lot to work out regarding Wednesday's system so let's see what tomorrow brings.
18Z and 12z ensembles below.
www.x.com/wolfeeire
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The American Models out in front for cold and snowfall. The GFS use to have a cold bias, wonder has it been corrected much?
Wind wise the system seems to be producing stronger winds in the UK.
I'm thinking if we get snow in the midlands it could be heavy wet snow and could turn very hard in the sharp frost later overnight Weds into Thurs , it is fairly extreme cold for Ireland whereby the snow could get compacted and stay around for quite a few days.
Edit : just to note ECM 18Z is showing quite lackluster 850hPa temps on tis run for Weds with very little snowy outcome. Small trace of the former LP on this run now well to the S of Ireland giving little in the way of wind yet still quite wet in southern counties.
Never seen the ECM to change so much in such a short time.
Post edited by Meteorite58 on7 -
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