1st January 2025 - 8th January Snow Potential, Freezing Conditions - Discussion

That's right Gonzo. Altnaharra I'd say.

Altnaharra hit -26.2c in late December 1995 too. Equalled the 1982 UK record.

This thread is bogus. Yes, some wintry weather is likely, but nothing exceptional, and the only reason Met Éireann have highlighted it at all, is because of the contrast with what has been an untypically mild December.

Some stubborn frosts and fog? So....

Some snow on higher ground? Yeah, its the beginning of January...

🤷‍♂️

Must have been fairly bitter I wasn't born until the March, coldest winter I remember is 2010 with lows of -14c in south west Dublin or something like that

Still likely to be the coldest snap so far this winter possibly a spell. Well not that we have had one so far this meteorological winter .I'd be surprised if any snowfall is restricted to just high ground. Anyway let's see what the models show tomorrow.

That GFS run is insane, with a seemingly never ending screaming north-easterly… hard to see how upgrades are possible from here, at least synoptically.

Big swing back to winter on the GEFS too -

ECM is totally different to GFS latest at 144. Milder, with low pressure out to the southwest. GFS has ridging and a very cold northerly. Who is going to be right?

Arpege for NYD. Not great either I’m afraid. Begins to introduce the colder air, but no event for the day. Will the GFS continue the trend later on….

Get the cold in first and build the dream.

don’t forget that a cold spell of even a week would be the longest January cold spell for fifteen years.
You could be right about a return to normal next weekend ( I remember the ‘BFTE’ went out with a whimper after a couple of days) but it is looking like a prolonged spell at the moment.

dare I say it … a queueing for bread and milk cold spell?

Those mountains are old enough for binge drinking around New Year's 😜

There wouldn't be much discussion if we all sat here and 'enjoyed' the weather. Figuring out the potential longevity and severity of this cold spell or any other weather event is what makes boards.ie for me.

The people criticising the OP for creating the thread also need to give their head a wobble. It's a weather forum. You only serve to discourage contributions from people, especially newcomers, with such commentary. Drop the sniping. There is enough of that going on elsewhere than to bring it into here. It also clogs up threads (like my comment is doing here so apologies, Mods).

Even if only the mountains get a pummel I finally have the free time to go up and take photos of it with my new tripod I got for Christmas ;)

Looking forward to crisp sunshine anyway, much needed

Just a few thoughts. WolfeEire an exceptionally good poster, and always very patient with those less knowledgeable like myself.

In defence of McBurns he's a very good, solid poster and I don't think he intends to snipe. I don't want to second guess him but I feel he means 'lads don't forget to experience a cold spell that we mightn't have had since January 2010 getting too worried about the breakdown'. It's a very valid point for a weather forum too.

I understand these fora are about predictions, and this one FI too.

I don't mean to take sides but I see both viewpoints and think they can co exist.

There is a 16-17c spread in the ensembles 850hPas for this Sunday but the trend is for cold conditions to remain in place into next week. The weekend's encroaching Atlantic low has been and remains a key moment in the upcoming spell. In yesterday's modelling, the Atlantic blocking broke down and there was a quick return to zonal, milder Atlantic conditions.

This is next Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, using a midlands location like Athlone as an example. The average 850hPa for the same timestamp here was 0c in yesterday afternoon's run. It's Minus 5.5c today. Note the sub minus 10 perturbations too, which bodes well for longer term cold.

We have seen a wicked looking New Year's Day Storm dissipate just a few days out so it's likely that the modelling is similarly downgrading other systems. We are entering a negative NAO phase in the next day or two, which means a less mobile Atlantic.

Is there no hope for snow on New Years Day in Kinnegad so? Would love a bit of snow for a day or two.

It's at least the 2nd time in the last 12 months that the ECM has shown a monster storm just off the west coast at a relatively reliable time frame 5/6 days and then for a completely different situation to verify.

Selfishly I really hope there's no snow NYE/NYD because I have to do a lot of driving both days. I don't care if 10 feet of the stuff falls after that!

Met Eireann not having anything to do with disruptive snow now. A few showers about in the North otherwise wet & windy and then cold with frosts at night.

Edit: For the Dublin region.

Unless it's 97-100% nailed down, Met Eireann won't pronounce on something more than 2 days away. And that's fair enough.

Ophelia hit on a Monday in mid October 2017. From memory the warnings began 3 days before on Friday. They were confident. BFTE 2018 similar.

I didn’t even realise snow was on the cards until I saw a Carlow weather tweet a few mins ago, so I said I’d check what the weather nerds on boards are saying, is it looking good for Dublin or wha

GFS 12z is excellent with deep cold moving down from the north/north east over the weekend, UKMO not so, with it all falling apart by the same timeframe… take your pick