1st January 2025 - 8th January Snow Potential, Freezing Conditions - Discussion

yr.no uses the ECMWF model that is the forecasting system of choice of choice for Met Eireann. In fact, the Met app produces the exact same 7-10 local area forecasts as produced by Yr.no.

Forecasting is difficult and far from a perfect science. It is made endlessly harder in a country that is an island on the edge of an ocean. When you hear a forecaster give multiple scenarios beyond 3-5 days regarding snowfall in Ireland, it's because of our geographic position and the consequent complications around nailing the extent and specifics of such an event, and a rare one at that.

As for your comment about poor driving by Irish motorists in wintry conditions, that is very unfair. Irish motorists are poor drivers all year round! 😜

One for the winter bingo board 😆

GFS is a touch further north, similar to be ICON. It's so marginal that no forecast is going to nail this down in advance of the weekend. The colder airmass is no way as frigid as it was showing a few days ago so that may undermine snow potential. Pending a complete southward shift of the system, somewhere will see significant and disruptive snowfall. That's about as much as can be said right now.

Will be interesting to see the ECM 00Z, the Merry go-round of the Northerly and Southerly track of the low is quite gripping. Ohs and awhs at the ready 😁

ECM precipitation approaching extreme SW 6am Saturday. By 9am some light flurries inland SW. By 6pm there’s nice accumulations for most of Munster. Come midnight most of country with at least a covering plus 10cm in places, then crazy accumulations for parts overnight up to 42cm is highest I see. Obviously taken with a pinch of salt but potential is there for a huge fall. Heavy snow showers in to the NW Sunday evening.

Looks like a heavy wet snow (15-30 cm potential) for large portions of the nation, inland from south and east coasts, lasting on the ground for a week or so … but a lot of uncertainty remains. In larger cities around coast, likely to be a mixed fall leaving limited ground cover that would be largely gone by Wednesday.

Forecaster's best response is to book off sick.

I am quite interested in the arpege model due to its performance in November. There is a good upgrade on it for snow potential especially Sunday morning and Sunday evening with anywhere in inland Munster being the sweet spot. It even gives a couple of hours snow to the south coast as it pulls away.

met.ie—

Tuesday night: Apart from a few lingering wintry showers in the north, it'll be dry on Tuesday night with clear spells. Freezing fog will form, becoming dense in places. Extremely cold with temperatures expected to fall to between -10 and -3 degrees in light variable breezes.

Their forecast looks great away from the South and Southwest where more rain is likely.

Holy hell, the met Éireann forecast is baltic, disruptive significant snowfall, bitterly cold, - 10 at night, - 5 in the day, wow.

surprised they mention only the south and south west coasts, for falls of rain, you’d imagine the east coast also considering onshore winds?

A lot of detail to be tied down with this one. A forecasting nightmare.

This is going to be absolutely sickening for us Corkonians.

The best part will be staring out the window at baltic rain. I'd actually get over it if we just stayed dry instead 🥲

Advisory out for the weekend now. Seems sensible as there is still much uncertainty.

Along the coast yes very much so. Inland a better chance as always. The track of this low is still a bit debatable though.

North of the City might, but might location 5km from the coast I highly doubt it.

Just read the met eireann forecast. Holy cow! They are all in. Haven't seen a forecast like this in years. Usually love this, but two sons flying out on Saturday. Hoping the bad weather waits till they are gone! Based on what I'm reading here they will just be OK....

If they fly out early then they should be ok. Worst of it is to hit the early hours of Sunday

Met say: "this weekend.. significant accumulations of snow likely"

Almost certain to be the first proper cold weather event in over 5 years. There will be plenty of snow but too difficult to tell who'll get what for now. What is certain is freezing temps nationwide. My prediction is that all except coastal area's in south and east will see snow and plenty of lying snow come Sunday afternoon.

Bright winters morning out there, -1 N Kildare

Weather Advisory for Ireland

Sleet and snow in places this weekend, with some disruption possible.

A spell of rain will spread northwards over Ireland during the course of Saturday, turning to sleet and snow in some areas. Rain, sleet and snow will continue for a time on Sunday before clearing eastwards into the Irish Sea.

Significant accumulations of snow are likely in some counties.

Potential Impacts:
• Hazardous travelling conditions
• Travel & service disruption

Valid: 00:00 Saturday 04/01/2025 to 00:00 Monday 06/01/2025

I am very glad that we have this event/spell in peak winter, may just give us the edge in terms of marginality. Not super hopeful for much in Dublin/low lying eastern/southern coastal counties, but if winds go offshore for any decent length of time (a micro secondary low could aid this) - it could be game on for coastal or near coastal areas, this would require some luck though.

Met E obviously not ruling out this possibility yet, and nor should they at this timeframe - based on their text forecast I also think think they see the northern boundary of the milder air incursion at the weekend as somewhat further south than what guidance is currently suggesting.

Some chance of further snow opportunities after the weekend but will likely be largely dry and cold until another low approaches…

Interesting times for sure, likely the coldest January period since 2010 - central counties will experience proper winter conditions with bitter temperatures to follow - and anywhere could see some snowfall at times.

latest gfs keeps us frosty icy and cold into next weekend.

Morning all!

I always check out this forum when there's a chance of snow. It's good craic and I appreciate the knowledge in the group. Last year we were heading on holiday on Jan 18th. On information I gleaned from here I booked a hotel in Dublin for the 17th as I thought roads would be bad in Donegal. But roads were clear on the morning and we cancelled the booking only to be caught with a snowfall on the way to Letterkenny and nearly crashed. (BMW is not the car of choice in snow!) The night bus was cancelled and we missed our flight.

We are heading away again on Tuesday and I can't believe we are in the same scenario 😯 This time we are flying out from Belfast. I'm relying on you guys to keep providing the information from the models so I can try and be prepared!

Thanks for all you do 🙂

The 06z Arpege is just rolling out but the 0z almost had this as a Munster focussed event (albeit I note the point being made that Arpege may overdo how much snow is actually lying…) - see below