1st January 2025 - 8th January Snow Potential, Freezing Conditions - Discussion

Just by going off of the 0z ECM run and looking at the theta e 850hpa .

I can see alot of disappointment as the temperatures are very high from say below a line from Limerick to Dublin due to the approaching angle of the low pressure system.

Yes this is a frontal system and this will help alot overcoming a higher temp, however altitude will be required i feel to make the change from sleet to actual wet snow.

This all changes as we go into Sunday morning as these temperatures fall right back as the front clears then wet snow much more likely with whatever precipitation remains

See below charts highlighting this.

This is just 1 run, many more to go but just be mindful that this could be cold rain ,sleet for alot until it pulls away overnight Saturday into Sunday morning

Christ, there won't be a sliothar pucked in anger anytime next week if that comes off! 😮

Yeah, 6z Arpege is similar to the 0z Arpege. A tiny move northwards but still well south of GFS. I've pasted below the most northerly extent of the warm uppers from both the 6z GFS and 6z Arpege. A good 100 km in the difference. Interesting too that GFS has things moving quicker with the warm uppers peaking in the early hours of Sunday while Arpege has it at lunchtime on Sunday. I've also pasted below the 6z Arpege snow chart

To my eye the arpege has gone a bit further north on the 6z, the 850 0C temp goes a bit further north and now limited to an hour of wet snow towards the coast rather than the couple of hours that were showing on the 0z. Not overly optimistic at the moment for south Cork including Cork city but you never know it could correct south again!!

I posted about the same charts at nearly the exact same time as you but I prefer your optimism to my pessimism!! 😉

Really hoping that 15km is close enough to the coast in Wicklow for this to be a non-event here. Snow is too disruptive for my liking, prefer a good frost for the winter scenes but the roads remain passable. Can I still say bah humbug now that Christmas is over? For those wishing for snow I hope ye get plenty, the snow lovers among us are rarely treated to it these days.

Reading all these predictions, another one for sryanbruen's next version of the bingo card has to be "Nowcast"

Freezing rain i reckon with Liverpool on the coast. I'll give you a tip though. 4 scarves, 3 hats and 2 sets of gloves. I have been to Anfield in May when it felt baltic in the stadium

Looking disruptive for higher elevations in Wicklow. I'll need to keep an eye on this….

A knowledgeable poster on NW (carinthian) is now saying the European models are moving the low south again……let’s see what the ecm 6z holds!! Think I might take a break then until tomorrow morning otherwise you could drive yourself crazy!! 😂

Not on the 06Z Ecmwf run, fairly much the same as the 00Z run.

Think this will be like the November snow for Sligo. It won't reach us!! Prob as far North as Tubbercurry then stops and dragged away. South Midlands will have Emma type snow.

Hopefully it will be called off and a prudent decision made to call it a draw!

As things stand, by 6.30pm pm Sunday I'm expecting to be looking at the 24th hour of sleet out my window while driven even further to the edge of a mental breakdown by that Manchester shower I have the misfortune to follow.

Could be worse mind. The only time I went to Anfield for a United match was two years ago - United were flying, Liverpool in the doldrums. I was told I had to cheer in the unlikely Liverpool scored a goal as I was sitting with the home fans and couldn't let myself be identified as a United fan. By the 7th time I had to do that, I had truly lost the will to live…..

I'm going for disruptive snow on Bray Seafront akin to 1987.

Why?

I needed new Tyres for my car January 2018 and planned to buy those amazing new Michelin Cross Climate all seasons. They didn't make the exact size for my car and I got mixed answers about whether I could use the next profile height up. Procrastinated a while and then said F it and just bought another set of Summers because what were the odds we'd have another Epic snow event 'So soon' after 2010. The BFTE arrived a few weeks later!!

Need another new set of tyres for the car again. Got away with an NCT Pass Advisory for them the last two years but won't get away with it a third year in a row. Checked out the Cross Climates again and now in 2024/25 they do manufacture the exact size for my car so I planned to buy a set next week and get them fit during the car service the week after.

You know what that means?!?!

Epic snow this weekend and early next week before I get the tyres, snow gone by the time I get them and then no snow for the lifetime of those tyres till the 2030's. LOL

Certainly doesn't seem to be any noticeable shift south. The BBC seem to favour this track too judging by their recent forecasts. Looking very good from about Tipperary north and away from the coast.

Honestly not expecting much here 1km from the east coast. With the 546 dam over the country I think a lot here are going to be disappointed, hope I'm wrong.

Harmonie not backing down, latest 9z

I think anything 10km away from the coast will see snow, Dublin west should be ok for a decent amount of action anyway, although this could all change with a single updated run

Doesnt @Villain have super access to Harmonie? He is very quiet on all platforms this morning 😉

I know it's always borderline down South but usually with any question marks over an event it usually ends in sleet or rain. Certainly the midlands look to be in for a good amount of snow but details will be hard to nail down until tomorrow evening I'd say.

Schhhhhh…

Seems the snow's being delivered by lorry

don’t be saying things like that Gonzo :( I’m south Louth and expect a decent amount of snow