Who will be our next Taoiseach?

New_Departure06 · 28-04-2006 05:59AM #1

Bertie or Enda? Who is going to win. Try to separate this out from the question of who should win.

If today's polls were General Election ones I would predict an outcome of:

FF: 60
FG: 55
Labour: 21
PD: 6 (normally 5 but now we have O'Gorman in the fray)
SF: 10-16
Independent: 10

But a lot can change between now and then. Can the govt be saved by a few more "high-profile" candidates, or by the SSIAs? Or simply because of a desire by the voters for economic stability? Can anything save Bertie? Will SF go in with Bertie?

Unpossible · 28-04-2006 08:52AM

Well according to my dad (who knows more about the current mood than I do as he is back in Ireland), FF are going to stay in power. Like he says FG are simply not strong enough to take power (plus SF seem to be gaining seats at Labour and FGs expense). Experts are reckoning that my local FG TD (Jimmy Denihan sp?) wont get his seat next time around, and labour seem to have lost their strength in Kerry.
When is the election? I might come home to vote.

Note: my dad has always supported Labour and doesnt like FF, so I was surprised to hear him say there was no hope

New_Departure06 · 28-04-2006 09:00AM

Unpossible wrote:

Well according to my dad (who knows more about the current mood than I do as he is back in Ireland), FF are going to stay in power. Like he says FG are simply not strong enough to take power (plus SF seem to be gaining seats at Labour and FGs expense). Experts are reckoning that my local FG TD (Jimmy Denihan sp?) wont get his seat next time around, and labour seem to have lost their strength in Kerry.
When is the election? I might come home to vote.

Note: my dad has always supported Labour and doesnt like FF, so I was surprised to hear him say there was no hope

I am also surprised. I doubt that Kerry is typical of the country anyway. I mean it gave Martin Ferris (SF) 24%. It is a more republican county than most, so FG obviously wouldn't be so popular there.

jhegarty · 28-04-2006 09:09AM

any one have money on Gerry Adams.....

Unpossible · 28-04-2006 09:14AM

I am also surprised. I doubt that Kerry is typical of the country anyway.

Hey I was also surprised, Im no fan of FF . I really hope kerry isnt typical of the rest of the country either.

sure fwat would we do if ye all get dolphins hah?

lostexpectation · 28-04-2006 04:38PM

its not going to be Bertie though even if FF get into power?

New_Departure06 · 28-04-2006 04:45PM

lostexpectation wrote:

its not going to be Bertie though even if FF get into power?

Why?

lostexpectation · 28-04-2006 05:09PM

how long has he been taoiseach again ... 9 years isn't that enough? isn't there a legal limit on one man being taoiseach in this country

Unpossible · 28-04-2006 05:29PM

9 years isn't that enough? isn't there a legal limit on one man being taoiseach in this country

Do you mean consecutively or combined? I'd be very surprised if this is true

Cyrus · 28-04-2006 05:30PM

Brian Cowen will be the next taoiseach

New_Departure06 · 28-04-2006 05:32PM

He has to keep going to beat Dev's record of 16 consecutive years.

lostexpectation · 28-04-2006 05:40PM

Unpossible wrote:

Do you mean in total or combined? I'd be very surprised if this is true

Argh

I blame http://www.politics.ie/wiki/index.php?title=Bertie_Ahern its not very clear on what years Bertie was leader of an FF government

Cork · 28-04-2006 07:47PM

Bertie will be the next Taoiseach.

I can even see him being a strong contender for a 4th term.

SeanW · 28-04-2006 08:15PM

The SSIAs are going to come due between now and just before the next election. How convient for FF

Plus, like last time, there will be a humongous pre-election splurge in budget spending and tax-cuts. And the same gullable folks who voted for them last time will do so again becuase they just got a huge tax-cut, their street/road repaved, and ten thousand or so out of the SSIA. And between 2007-2012 more people will die on hospital trollies, commutes will get longer, crime will go up while the electioneers make a bunch of cutbacks while they go on a junket to Argentina to see how they manage a budget.

lostexpectation · 29-04-2006 06:48AM

Unpossible wrote:

Do you mean consecutively or combined? I'd be very surprised if this is true

No I am right there was thread on this before I wasn't sure about then either but look

Taoiseach June 1997-June 2002
Taoiseach June 2002-Present

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bertie_Ahern

He is has been leader of his party for 12 yrs

anything past 10yrs is too much for any so called democratic country...

Look someone been keeping an eye on this...

ooh a WP fan

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Taoisigh_by_important_facts#
Bertie Ahern June 26, 1997 (as of April 13, 2006) 1 3213

murphaph · 29-04-2006 11:49AM

I think Ahern will be next Taoiseach, but I'd rather Brian Cowen tbh. I think Cowen genuinely (well, as genuine as a politician gets) has the national interest at heart. I never get that feeling from Ahern. Ahern can also barely string a sentence togedder.

I genuinely can't see FG or Lab for that matter making serious gains. If Harney can pull something off with health service reform then I'd bet the farm on FF/PD and unfortunately Ahern as Taoiseach.

Harney would make a good one too IMO, but as a minority party it's never gonna happen.

Cork · 29-04-2006 12:09PM

lostexpectation wrote:

anything past 10yrs is too much for any so called democratic country...

I know people in the same job for 35 years?

In business - many CEOs are in change for decades.

ateam · 29-04-2006 03:18PM

FF will be in power after the next election in a coalition with the PDs with Bertie as Taioseach. Why rock the boat... Labour and Fine Gael being in power would be disastrous for this country. Enda Kenny as Taioseach!! We'd be the laughingstock of the EU.

The_Minister · 29-04-2006 03:34PM

SeanW wrote:

Plus, like last time, there will be a humongous pre-election splurge in budget spending and tax-cuts.

Cowen has said that they won't do anything massive as it could cause inflation.

Unpossible · 29-04-2006 04:46PM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of...portant_facts#
Bertie Ahern June 26, 1997 (as of April 13, 2006) 1 3213

That link just tells us how many terms each one served, Haughey and de Valera both served 3 so whats stopping bertie serving 3?

Note: I really really hope you are right and bertie is forced out, but i need proof before I believe it.

ateam · 29-04-2006 09:52PM

The latest opinion poll in The Sunday Business Post gave Fianna Fail a 5% increase on their last poll, Sinn Fein down 3% and Fine Gael also down.

netwhizkid · 29-04-2006 10:25PM

Enda Kenny for Taoiseach and Pat Rabbitte for Tanaiste. I can see a Fine Gael/Labour/Green Party "Rainbow" Coalition replacing the current Government with Fianna Fail losing about 20 to 30 seats (hopefully more) However Sinn Fein will make huge Gains and there could be the possibility of a Fianna Fail/Sinn Fein Coalition possibly propped up by a few Independents like the way the 1997-2002 Government was Propped up by Jackie Healy-Rae, Mildred Fox and that other fella.

There are now something like 12 Independents and I think they should form a lose Independent Alliance with common ground on Various issues. They would have considerable influence considering they have 12 seats (Correct me if i am wrong) and this number is sure to rise as people are disenfranchised and totally fed-up with most parties.

Ireland also seems to be a case in question as we have no Far-Right party like Britain's BNP, Which are set for an Electoral success beyond belief if the British polls are to be believed in next Thursday's Local Election in the UK.

Oh yeah as for Kerry we are totally off the National trend in politics (I think we are ahead of the rest of ye

or behind!) Nothing much will change South Kerry will see see: John O'Donoghue elected poll topping on the FF Gravy Train, Tom Sheehan or maybe even ex-GAA President Sean Kelly taking the Labour Seat for Fine Gael, My own Local Man Jackie will be left to battle it out with Tom Fleming for last place, If Jackie himself runs, (which he has said he will, then Tom Fleming will have a good aul chance but I think the Transfers will from FG & labour plus the other candidates will help keep the Healy-Rae Dynasty in Dail Eireann again. I would rather see Jackie's son Michael run as he would have a better chance.

As for north Kerry things will say much the same but Jimmy Denihan's seat is dodgy, who will take it is unknown to me. Norma Foley of FF is a likely Candidate but Teresa Ferris if she was to run would rattle it too giving SF 2 seats in the 3 seater constituency. Kerry will buck the trend and Vote Fianna Fail even more than before, I blame the lack of a TV Signal around my own area and maybe the High Radon-Gas in the North of the County. Then again in real terms We all have more money in our pockets and most people have that as the bottom line. I Credit this to Bill Clinton, The Peace Process and EU Grants. It will make for an interesting 12 months of political dog-fighting for sure.

New_Departure06 · 29-04-2006 10:53PM

Okay I have seen something on the news about the new poll. http://www.rte.ie/news/2006/0429/fiannafail.html FF is now on 38%, FG 23%, Labour 11%, PD 4%, SF 8%, Greens 7% and "Others" 9% (mostly Independents). This gives the current govt 42% compared with 41% for a putative Rainbow of FG-Lab-Green. So it could be very close, and a lot, may depend on the stance SF will take on who should form the next govt. Do they really want the Blueshirts? Alternatively we may get another 1997-2002 scenario - if there are enough pro-FF Independents in the Dail.

Seems that the 1916 commemoration has succeeded in reasserting FF's "Green" credentials and clawed back some support from SF. If I were them I'd do it again before the next election and that should help.

The_Minister · 30-04-2006 01:06AM

New_Departure06 wrote:

Seems that the 1916 commemoration has succeeded in reasserting FF's "Green" credentials and clawed back some support from SF. If I were them I'd do it again before the next election and that should help.

Surely you mean Republican. It was O'Donohue who recently impressed the Greens.

New_Departure06 · 30-04-2006 01:32AM

Firespinner wrote:

Surely you mean Republican. It was O'Donohue who recently impressed the Greens.

The other kind of "Green"ness. :rolleyes:

The_Minister · 30-04-2006 01:34AM

New_Departure06 wrote:

The other kind of "Green"ness. :rolleyes:

I know what you meant, but your lingo was "incorrect" and could cause some momentary confusion. I was merely pointing out that "Republican" was clearer.

lostexpectation · 30-04-2006 06:57AM

Unpossible wrote:

That link just tells us how many terms each one served, Haughey and de Valera both served 3 so whats stopping bertie serving 3?

Note: I really really hope you are right and bertie is forced out, but i need proof before I believe it.

ah well dev was a differnet time, haughey atleast that wasn't consecutive, it bounced back between him and fitzgerald, look at bush, clinton, or blair, thatcher time catches up on them after two terms/10yrs ... people need change, there doesn't even half to a particular reason or scandal...

here another fact there to note
As of October 2005, Ahern is the 5th longest-serving political leader (European Council President-designate) among the 25 European Union member states, after Jean-Claude Juncker (1995-next election June 2009), Jacques Chirac (1995-next election 2007), Göran Persson (1996-next election Sep 2006) and Tony Blair (1997-next election by Jun 2010)

30-04-2006 09:48AM

:rolleyes:

netwhizkid wrote:

Nothing much will change South Kerry will see see: John O'Donoghue elected poll topping on the FF Gravy Train

Interesting, because a few short months ago you posted this...

netwhizkid wrote:

The real battle in this constituency will be Donoghue clining on and battling for transfers. I really hope he loses his seat btw.

Nothing like a bit of consistency...

delta_bravo · 30-04-2006 11:27PM

jhegarty wrote:

any one have money on Gerry Adams.....

well considering he doesnt run as a td he would have a tough time becoming a taoiseach.

Múinteoir · 30-04-2006 11:56PM

New_Departure06 wrote:

Bertie or Enda? Who is going to win. Try to separate this out from the question of who should win.

If today's polls were General Election ones I would predict an outcome of:

FF: 60
FG: 55
Labour: 21
PD: 6 (normally 5 but now we have O'Gorman in the fray)
SF: 10-16
Independent: 10

Why did you leave the Greens out of your prediction? Currently they have more seats than SF. Or was excluding them a Freudian slip?

New_Departure06 · 01-05-2006 12:30AM

M&#250 wrote: »

Why did you leave the Greens out of your prediction? Currently they have more seats than SF. Or was excluding them a Freudian slip?

Sorry. Anyway that's the poll before Sunday's one so it's out of date anyway. I think I included them later in the thread. I agree they are a crucial part of the arithmetic and that a Rainbow will fall far short of a majority without them. Didn't realise I have excluded them earlier.

ISAW · 05-05-2006 09:50AM

New_Departure06 wrote:

Bertie or Enda? Who is going to win. Try to separate this out from the question of who should win.

If today's polls were General Election ones I would predict an outcome of:

FF: 60
FG: 55
Labour: 21
PD: 6 (normally 5 but now we have O'Gorman in the fray)
SF: 10-16
Independent: 10

But a lot can change between now and then. Can the govt be saved by a few more "high-profile" candidates, or by the SSIAs? Or simply because of a desire by the voters for economic stability? Can anything save Bertie? Will SF go in with Bertie?

There are a number of flaws in peoples analysis.

The above poll has been reversed by a Sunday Business post poll giving FF 42 per cent - which is where they were at the last general election.

An absolute disaster for FF would be 70 seats. They wont get less than that. to talk of 69 is madness.
Also, while FG + Lab + GP mich come within a per cent of FF, under the Irish system the party with the larger percentage of votes gets and even larger percentage of Dail seats.
in election 2002 FF- 41.5 FG- 28 Lab-10.5 PD-4.5 SF-6.5 GP-4
Note FG+Lab+GP = 42.5 per cent which was a whole per cent more than FF

Seats FF- 81 FG- 31 Lab-21 PD-8 SF-5 GP- 6

FG+Lab+GP = 58 seats (a whole lot less than 81 with about the same number of votes.)

Secondly, the independents are not "a group". If any sub group is picked from them the largest of these would be FF people. In 2002 independents got 11 per cent of the vote. Only Lowrey (a FG person originally) is a cert to vote against FF. The rest could be bought off. So the idea the FF needed the PD's is also open to debate. even without the Pd's FF could possibly form a minority government or go in with independents. SF were not then a possibility but could become one now.

FF therefore have a host of options. Even a loss of 11 seats and teh rainbow pich ALL of them up (unlikely - many would go to FF independents or maybe to SF or the PDs) this would still leave FF on 70 and the rainbow with less than that. even in that situation FF STILL have the independent SF or minority options. The rainbow have limited their options on these if not dealt them out.

So I really cont see FF not getting into government. the only possibility that it might happen is the ff getting 60 seats senario above along with tha rainbow picking ALL of those searts up giving them 79 seats. This is just not going to happen! and anyone saying FF will get 60 seats and FG Lab and GP pick all FF losses up I ask to put 1000 euro on it. I bet a 1000 euro they wont - and they do have a book maker TD in FG who gave up his seat. He can even hold the bet.

Before FF got into government they spent about 15 of the perceeding 20 years out of government. They provided top class opposition in hard times. The opposition are only beginning to act like an opposition over the last five years and they have only been out of government less than ten years and they are in opposition when the government is preciding over the greatest economic success in Irish history. To think the rainbow are going to sweep into government is in my frank opinion pissing against the wind.

And the idea that attacking the leader of FF will show success is also foolish. Memebrs of the cabinet may show cracks, but Bertie really does not have that many. The idea that FF might split into two parties is in my opinion a pipe dream but it is the hope behind such attacks. It happened with Blaney and with O malley. The result- FF lost one seat (and Blaney NEVER voted against FF) and FF lost 8 seats (well maybe 6 of them were FF and the PDs ended up in government with FF which is a net gain of the two other of the 8 seats).

The opposition are beginning to get their act together, but it will take them at least five years before they can begin to challange FF at the polls. and I can see the PDs being gone in five years time - and even then if they lose seats at least half of them will go to FF and less than half of the rest to a disparate rainbow.

Teh immediate future is bleak for the opposition. They should get their heads down and work hard at opposition and expose any flaws in government ministers. Bertie will probably be gone in five/six years time and they should be getting ready for that. They shoyuls also keep their options open and FG or Lab or GP should consider governent with FF.

Who will be our next Taoiseach?

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