Kings any good here with 2 aces on the flop?

I don't know. Ring up UB and ask them nicely to check their database. Otherwise call him down and find out.

PS: Fold. Though still depends on villian.

i'd get out of town, FOLD. Its too risky. he really wants to bleed you, but you cant call can you, out of position, heavy bet on turn, a single ace in his hand and your gone. Id say he has AK or AJ, I wouldnt continue.

So you guys dont think my philosophy about giving the villain 3-1 on a possible float dosent apply? BTW smaller bets = weakness from most villains, not strenght imo.

Also say u had AK Nicky, would you only bet 30?I bet more as either the villain has an ace or he dosent, simple as that. If he does I want him calling 45(which he will) not 30

I also agree that the half pot Cont. bet is perfect, it only needs to work half the time to be profitable, and the other half of the time you'll have hit a hand and can get paid off. A completely Win Win situation.

In the hand in question I think I call the turn and check it down on the river if possible. Or if I think I'm facing a River bet regardless of his cards then I fold now.

EDIT: It's not that common that people will float you, and if they do, they'll do it far too often and can be picked off at will...

willis wrote:

So you guys dont think my philosophy about giving the villain 3-1 on a possible float dosent apply? BTW smaller bets = weakness from most villains, not strenght imo.

Also say u had AK Nicky, would you only bet 30?I bet more as either the villain has an ace or he dosent, simple as that. If he does I want him calling 45(which he will) not 30

will,
you have KK,there is A on the board.
what would your pot size bet achive that your half pot would not ?
if you decide to float in every situation like this based on what your saying then you are a very proftible player to play against.
the pot has been raised and reraised and now there is A high flop and a half pot bet in to it and you thinking about floating?

Gholimoli wrote:

will,
you have KK,there is A on the board.
what would your pot size bet achive that your half pot would not ?
if you decide to float in every situation like this based on what your saying then you are a very proftible player to play against.
the pot has been raised and reraised and now there is A high flop and a half pot bet in to it and you thinking about floating?

Gholi would you fold QQ to this half pot bet with position??If you do call you are now flaoting

Gholimoli wrote:

am i missing something here or are you?
there is an A on the flop ,you have KK and a sigle A in villains hand is better than your hand.
now your talking about making him pay when he has an A?
im confused ?
he either had A or he dosent.
if he does your way behind,if he does not you way ahead.you want to get to show down as cheap as possible because while your hand deffo has some showdown value but its not enough to be paying half your stack with it.thats why you should be happy with keeping the pot small.

Sorry guys, I was talking about Nickys comments that he would bet the same amount if he had AK here and the flop was A78. I argued that we should bet more, gholi said that we want to keep the pot small. Thus, my response to this is above.

i.e we want to bet more as villain either has ace or dosent(If he dosent he folds ok), and if he does, make him pay for it if he wants to go to showdown. Why keep the pot small when you have the villain drawing to 3outs??

Gholi, ok you would only call with QQ here if you think its the best hand. How the heck would you think you have the best hand when villain bets 30 on an ace high flop???So if you do call, you ARE FLOATING, as you have called in the HOPE that your villain does not bet the turn/bets very weakly so you can take him off it.

Gholi, you said if you did call with QQ you wouldnt bet the turn if checked to???Thats crazy...the villain has just said"hey im weak,im afraid, and I cant bet...please bet and take this pot down" and you say no?

willis wrote:

Gholi, ok you would only call with QQ here if you think its the best hand. How the heck would you think you have the best hand when villain bets 30 on an ace high flop???So if you do call, you ARE FLOATING, as you have called in the HOPE that your villain does not bet the turn/bets very weakly so you can take him off it.

Gholi, you said if you did call with QQ you wouldnt bet the turn if checked to???Thats crazy...the villain has just said"hey im weak,im afraid, and I cant bet...please bet and take this pot down" and you say no?

will,
as i said you have the concept of "floating" all wrong.
when your floating your calling a bet in the hopes of taking the pot on a later street with a BLUFF.
when you bluff your hand contains no show down value and you feel the only way you can take the pot is by bluffing at it.

i would "float" here say if i had 78 and the board was A T K .i call the bet the flop bet and ten make a big bet on the turn if checked to .i bet here because its THE ONLY WAY for me to take the pot and if it goes to SHOW DOWN i feel i have almost 0 CHANCE of winning this hence my hand has NO SHOW DOWN VALUE.

in the case of QQ its totally different.
when i call with QQ on the board of A 6 7 im not trying to take the pot from him on a later street.
im thinking well maybe he does not have the A and he has something like JJ,TT,99 here which i can beat.
so i call the flop bet and when its checked to me on the turn i dont want to bet becasue:
i DONT want to get RAISED here .villain woul check this with KK,AT,A9,A2 bla bla and all them hands beat me.
also villain could have 23 here and decides that he wants to make a play at me and check raise.in that case i will have to drop my hand and fold the best hand here which is really bad.
so i want to get to show down as cheap as possible with QQ cuz my hand has some show down value and i may win it,but with 78 i dont want to go to show down because there is almost 0 chance i will win it.
does this make sense?

will

“However, I will argue against us not betting the turn when checked to. If we feel we have the best hand we should bet it, why let villain hit 2pair or an odd straight etc., we will let him catch up”

we don’t know if we have the best hand or not. we think there is a chance we have the best hand but there is also a chance that we don’t.
now combine this with the fact that when you bet your much more likely to get called when your beat , and you should see that betting here has negative expectation and that’s why you don’t bet.

“Also, you say we are afraid of the check-raise. Well if villain intends to check-raise, and we check behind, we are going to be faced with a river bet for certain. Now what do we do? Because we didnt bet the turn, we have no idea whether villain has ace or not, and are faced with a tough decision. If we bet the turn, and got called, we can check behind on the river, at least we have some sort of info on the turn as to where we stand.”

A river bet is not as bad as the check raise here because it’s a single bet.
If villain bets on the river because you have position you can end the betting by just calling that’s why you will only be faced with a single bet which you can decide whether its worth a call or not.
But if you bet the turn and get reraised , your not ending the betting by just calling the check raise as there is definitely another bet coming up .so put very simply you can see the difference here between you betting the turn or being faced with a river bet on the river by villain.
There are ofcourse other consideration here as well but im just answering your questions.


“My bet with the QQ is because the villain looks weak, so lets take the pot. But also if we in fact do have the best hand, we should obviously bet it, lets not allow villain to catch up. And thirdly, the bet establishes to us more clearly where we stand in relation to whether or not villain has an ace, as we are more likely to only get called by an ace”

a check on the turn here by villain does not look weak it just doesn’t look strong. there is a difference.
There are a lot of hands that you can call with but not raise with because of the reason I stated above which is being reraised.
Most one pair hands(including those that beat QQ) would check the turn here but that does not mean they have given up and you can take the pot from them by a bet.
They check for different reasons and one of them is exactly what your saying which is to get a weaker hand bet in to them to try and get them off,its called inducing a bluff.
So that’s why again betting here is not good when your hand has show down value.
Also this is the turn with one more to come so you should be a lot less concerned with people catching up and a lot more with increasing your chances of winning the pot. betting does not always increase your chances of winning the pot.also if he can improve the so can you .

my play here would be completely player dependant, sometimes (more than half the time) Im going to fold with no other info on villain, sometimes I play it exactly like Nicky.

Sometimes I prefer to check the flop, but I employ the checkraise more than others so if I am playing a regular and I check and he checks behind he basically tells me he has no ace.

Your absolutely right HJ, but sometimes if I flat call here I know I fold to a big bet on the end, still your line is best.

Open folding is miles better than re-raising here. In this spot I would either call him down or just fold depending on villian's tightness.

willis wrote:

I disagree. If we get check raised we FOLD - Simple as that. We lose our 1bet
If we call the river and lose - We lose 1bet and we call the river with no extra available info into the villains holding. So we are basically calling as a guess as we have NO IDEA what villain has - This is bad. We can find out what he has by betting the turn, simple

Gholi, if we have the best hand we must bet it - Do you disagree? We aint sure if we have best hand, lets find out by betting. If the villain folds, then great. If he calls we are done with the hand. He may call us with JJ/1010 and we check behind on the river and win a BIGGER pot than we would have.

You talk about showdown value - I dont get this. Either we are beat or we are ahead yeah?. If we are ahead we MUST BET in the hope that villain calls us with worse hand. If we are beat, it dosent matter whether we check-call the river ot bet fold the turn, we are beat, we have lost 1 bet. The extra adantage betting the turn gives us is that JJ/1010 etc call us(good), or that KK folds(good).So betting the turn is essential, this showndown value thingy is bullsh1t imo

will ,
if you get check raised on the turn and fold your hand its not quit the same thing as calling a river bet and loosing.can you not see why?
you say you only lose one bet in both cases and even though thats true but the options are like night and day.
in the first one you lose a bet with out even getting to showdown with 0% chance of winning the pot but in the second one you will get to showdown with some chance of winning the pot.
this should be obvious.
also WE DONT KNOW IF WE ARE BEAT OR AHEAD thats why we dont bet.
any bet you make in poker has an expectation.
you should avoid making bets that have - expectation.
if you bet here you will get called by all the hands that beat you and no by no hand that you can beat .so if you bet you will lose that bet 100% of the time which means it has negative expectation.(the times that we are ahead ,our bet will not get called so you have no positive expectation from thoes bets).
this is some very ABC stuff Will.
also this is not bullsh1t and your have the wrong openion about it if thats what you think

willis wrote:

No
Heres my point: I say bet the turn when checked to, as we might get a call from a worse hand like JJ/1010(some guys cant let go). Also if we bet turn we may get KK to fold...see Nickys situation(everyone is nearly telling Nicky to fold KK here).

Now your point: Dont bet turn for fear of being checkraised...Gholi, We will only be check raised by hands that beat us ok. Therefore, we will lose on the river to this hand no matter how we play it. Therefore we have no showdown value. Also you say we are only getting called by hands that beat us. KK, and any Ace beat us yeah? Well KK will find it tough to call(Nickys hand) and if he has an Ace he will be betting the river anyway. So if we bet, we may get KK to fold...POSITIVE Expectation, if he has an ace we lose 1bet no matter how we play it.

Say gholi, we check behind turn, he checks river also and we check behind, he shows KK/JJ/1010, we could have made KK fold and maybe got an extra bet out of JJ/1010, therefore imo a bet is essential

You keep talking about showdown value? Please explain. Are you saying that we have showdown value, meaning that we get to a showdown with a chance to win? Well if that is the case why wait till showdown, if we can win at showdown we can just win now by betting. We will never beat an Ace or KK at showdown, but we can beat KK by a bet.

Will,
Your looking at this with hindsight .you know villain has KK here and now your saying oh there is an A there so lets represent it.
In reality :
We raised,got reraised ,flop comes A high and villain bets half the pot to us.
What we do is assign a range of hands to villain and a likely hood of having each hand in the range .
Lets say villains range here is is TT+,AK,AQ for example.
Now that’s 6xTT + 6xJJ+QQ+6xKK+6xAA+16xAK+16xAQ=57 total number of possible hands in his range

Now lets assume that when you bet he will fold all the hands that you beat (like TT,JJ)
And he will also fold KK which beats you and also QQ that ties with you.


He will have JJ,TT 12 ways so he has them 57/12 =21% of the time
He will have KK 6 ways so 57/6=10% of the time
He will have AK,AQ 32 ways so 57/32 =56% of the time
He will have QQ 1 way so 57/1=1.7% of the time

Now lets say the pot is $100 and you bet $50 on the turn when he checks to you:
Lets see the EV of this $50 call.

21% x0 + 10%x100(this is when his holding KK the best hand and folds so indeed you do have +EV) + 56%x(-50) (you lose $50 here because not folding any A) + 1.7%x50(this is when he fold QQ and you gain 50 extra cuz you would have gotten 50 anyway) =
0 + 10 – 28 + 0.85 = -17.15

so on average your bet has negative expectation of –17.15 .
add to this the times when he decides to check/raise bluff you with JJ,TT and you will see that your –EV is even greater.
Do I need to say more?