I disagree with pretty much 90% of HoH III

fuzzbox · 09-11-2006 12:06PM #1

Discuss with relevant quotation or reference !!

Gholimoli · 09-11-2006 12:16PM

i had a quick look through it and didnt find that much wrong about it but i have heard others saying its got some stupid advice on it.
do you wanna mention a specific hand or two where he is wrong?

Ste05 · 09-11-2006 12:18PM

I haven't read it, but would also like to hear some examples Fuzz...

fuzzbox · 09-11-2006 12:32PM

Negrenau Vs Arieh.
Final table of some big tourney
Arieh is super-aggro with 2mill, Negrenau is Chip lead with 4mil (or something)

6 handed I think (maybe 7), blinds at 15/30k with 3k antes (something like that anyway)
Arieh limps in in MP after some folds (this is suspicious in itself), sb completes and Negrenau checks the 9c6c.

Flop (120k or so)
Tc5s3c
check, Negranau bets 40k, Arieh calls with Jc9d !!!

Turn (200k)
7h
Negranu checks ... Arieh bets 225k .... Negranu calls

River (650k)
4 (non club)
Negranu bets 550k, Arieh goes all in for 1 milion total, Negranu calls the last 450k, knocks Arieh out and wins

Negranu would get lots of "harrington" points for this hand.
He wouldnt get as many Fuzz points though :-)

Hectorjelly · 09-11-2006 12:42PM

they are just books for beginners, I wouldnt get too worked up about them. I thought the third one was the most enjoyable; especially the phil ivey hands.

Gholimoli · 09-11-2006 12:52PM

i dont think the hand in question is that bad.
he should have played the turn differenyly but apart from that i dont see much wrong it.

RoundTower · 09-11-2006 12:57PM

Hectorjelly wrote:

they are just books for beginners, I wouldnt get too worked up about them. I thought the third one was the most enjoyable; especially the phil ivey hands.

Actually I think book 2 in particular is quite good and would recommend it to anyone. Agree with fuzz about book 3 though.

fuzzbox · 09-11-2006 01:27PM

Gholimoli wrote:

i dont think the hand in question is that bad.
he should have played the turn differenyly but apart from that i dont see much wrong it.

HoH gives Negranu full points for the turn.

fuzzbox · 09-11-2006 01:31PM

Hectorjelly wrote:

they are just books for beginners, I wouldnt get too worked up about them. I thought the third one was the most enjoyable; especially the phil ivey hands.

Ya the Helpi Vs Ivey hands were good - but only to read the Hand Histories ... the analysis wasnt that great.

Other than those tho - loads of advice that I think just plain sux.

careca · 09-11-2006 01:56PM

fuzzbox wrote:

HoH gives Negranu full points for the turn.

Is it that bad ? I've seen worse.

He has to think his clubs are good, plus any 4 or 8 and he gets a chance to knock out (maybe not with clubs) or cripple what must be one of the best players left ? I know he isn't getting the odds but I don't think its the worst ever ? Am i missing something or reading it wrong ?

Gholimoli · 09-11-2006 02:35PM

careca wrote:

Is it that bad ? I've seen worse.

He has to think his clubs are good, plus any 4 or 8 and he gets a chance to knock out (maybe not with clubs) or cripple what must be one of the best players left ? I know he isn't getting the odds but I don't think its the worst ever ? Am i missing something or reading it wrong ?

calling a pot sized bet with that hand on the turn is the worse option he could have chosen.
folding would be better than calling here but ultimately pushing is best for me.

Lafortezza · 09-11-2006 02:44PM

fuzzbox wrote:

Other than those tho - loads of advice that I think just plain sux.

Like what? You're not really putting across a very good argument here.
I thought that books 1 and 2 were decent, nothing too advanced and he promotes a fairly tight ABC strategy.

What's the 90% of the book that you disagree with?

careca · 09-11-2006 03:32PM

Gholimoli wrote:

calling a pot sized bet with that hand on the turn is the worse option he could have chosen.
folding would be better than calling here but ultimately pushing is best for me.

Maybe I'm too passive but I'm not sure I like this line. Negreanu is chip leader, he has a chance for 225K to cripple Ariah or possibly bust him. By flat calling the turn he can get away from the hand reasonably cheap. If he pushes here and Ariah calls (Negreanu doesn't know he has jack sh_it) then he would double up a dangerous player while losing 50% of his own chips.

I can understand folding (of course) but I think I'd take a more passive line in this situation.

Gholimoli · 09-11-2006 04:14PM

careca wrote:

Maybe I'm too passive but I'm not sure I like this line. Negreanu is chip leader, he has a chance for 225K to cripple Ariah or possibly bust him. By flat calling the turn he can get away from the hand reasonably cheap. If he pushes here and Ariah calls (Negreanu doesn't know he has jack sh_it) then he would double up a dangerous player while losing 50% of his own chips.

I can understand folding (of course) but I think I'd take a more passive line in this situation.

he has about 15/16 outs on the turn to win the pot.
Ariah cant have much.
he has open/lipmed and then just called a bet on the flop.
if he has anything decent then he will be protecting against the draws out there with raising.
his call on the flop shows that he is drawing more than anything else.

the turn bet by Ariah is too big but the problem here at the moment Daniel has got 9 high.
if he pushes the combined chances of Ariah folding + his 15/16 outs makes this a much better play than flat calling.
if you decide to play on with the hand you should max the chances of you winning it and pushing does that for you.

careca · 09-11-2006 04:36PM

Gholimoli wrote:

he has about 15/16 outs on the turn to win the pot.
Ariah cant have much.
he has open/lipmed and then just called a bet on the flop.
if he has anything decent then he will be protecting against the draws out there with raising.
his call on the flop shows that he is drawing more than anything else.

the turn bet by Ariah is too big but the problem here at the moment Daniel has got 9 high.
if he pushes the combined chances of Ariah folding + his 15/16 outs makes this a much better play than flat calling.
if you decide to play on with the hand you should max the chances of you winning it and pushing does that for you.

Look at it from the other side. You say Ariah would raise the pot to protect against any draws on the flop if he had anything, but would Daniel not also bet the turn if he had a big hand to protect against any draws ? If Ariah had A10 or K10 it wouldn't be the worst play to just call the flop bet and reevaluate on the turn. When Daniel doesn't bet the turn (with a possible flush out there) he now thinks he's ahead and bets. If Daniel comes over the top here, he could easily be caught with his trousers down and double up a good player.

Gholimoli · 09-11-2006 04:48PM

careca wrote:

Look at it from the other side. You say Ariah would raise the pot to protect against any draws on the flop if he had anything, but would Daniel not also bet the turn if he had a big hand to protect against any draws ? If Ariah had A10 or K10 it wouldn't be the worst play to just call the flop bet and reevaluate on the turn. When Daniel doesn't bet the turn (with a possible flush out there) he now thinks he's ahead and bets. If Daniel comes over the top here, he could easily be caught with his trousers down and double up a good player.

if Ariah had KT,AT he would have to raise the flop for the reasons i mentioned.
Ariah's pot bet size does not make sense there to me at all.
he is so passive all through the hand and then wakes up with a pot sized bet !!!
the buttom line is Daniel has got lots of outs which will compensate for the times where Ariah has some real strong hand(although any strong hand by him has been played badley in my openion).
the outs he has makes the push a good play .if it was simply a bluff then i would just say fold it.

hotspur · 10-11-2006 02:26AM

Maybe leading into a super-aggro player on the turn with 10 high isn't the best play, if there's an excellent possibility that Arieh will tank it in on the turn with a reraise then Negreanu would have to pay 1.25m instead of 225k to see the river.
He's getting fine implied odds to call the 225k and I see nothing wrong with this line even without knowing what negreanu was planning for the river if he missed.
I guarantee you Gus Hansen would have played it the exact same way if he had been in Negreanu's spot.

gilmour · 10-11-2006 02:30AM

got a lend of this today and having read volumes I+II and currently have read the first 20 problems, he seems to contradict a lot of his strategic advice in the first book. Actually he seems to be doing it a lot in volume III. One simple example is the problem on playing Aces where he advocates smooth calling a reraise preflop and a reraise on the flop is exactly what he advocated against in volume I - 'you need to find out how strong you're hand is so a reraise of 2 to 3 times his bet is sufficient' yet in volume III its 'call, keep the pot building and if he hit his set then thats poker'.

Heard him say in an interview that the next volume will be cash game orientated, should be interesting.

Rnger · 10-11-2006 05:51AM

i've always disagreed with that AA hand in hoh2

fuzzbox · 10-11-2006 09:33AM

hotspur wrote:

I guarantee you Gus Hansen would have played it the exact same way if he had been in Negreanu's spot.

Does that make it a good play?
I've seen that particular player make some "wonderful" plays in his time.

Gholimoli · 10-11-2006 09:43AM

hotspur wrote:

I guarantee you Gus Hansen would have played it the exact same way if he had been in Negreanu's spot.

i have no idea what this comment has to do with the arhument here?
i disagree with your whole logic anyway but fail to see how the above comment has to do with anythig!

Hitman Actual · 10-11-2006 11:16AM

I haven't read it either and probably wont bother, but I wonder is using example hands played by the 'experts' really a good idea. For a start, I assume there's a lot of history between the players which would have a big bearing on how the hand is played out. Also, maybe a lot of the players used aren't quite the 'experts' that the media makes them out to be?

kebabfest · 10-11-2006 01:00PM

Playing the player. The Airel v Daniel hand on paper looks a bit iffy, but in my opinion both are playing the player as much as anything else. Negreau wants to use the hand to KILL ariel by letting him hang himself which was what happens. He doesnt mind losing a small pot.
HoH 1&2 are good for basics, but there is little talk off playing the player even when discussing hand historys such as the 1 above.
Havent read 3 yet.

Scouser in Dub · 10-11-2006 01:32PM

If Negranau pushes the turn Arieh folds Negranau wins 425k having risked 1.25Million even with the 16 outs that doesn't seem a great bet assuming that Arieh only calls if he is ahead

Gholimoli · 10-11-2006 01:36PM

Scouser in Dub wrote:

If Negranau pushes the turn Arieh folds Negranau wins 425k having risked 1.25Million even with the 16 outs that doesn't seem a great bet assuming that Arieh only calls if he is ahead

you dont think winning a 425K pot with 9 high is good ?

so he calls another 220K ,misses his outs ,check/ folds !!!
great plan.

Scouser in Dub · 10-11-2006 01:44PM

NO I think that winning a 425k pot with 9 high is very good I am not sure of the value of risking 1.25 to do it when Arieh is ahead whenever he calls

Am not sure we can determine that DN was planning on C/F had he not hit an out but even if he did it still makes some sense if he thinks that when he hits he can get the other million from Arieh.

fuzzbox · 10-11-2006 02:07PM

If DN moves in for 1.25 mill total, then he has 33% equity IF he is called.

If he is called the pot will be 2.75million - so he will get back an average of .9million IF he is called.

If JA folds, then DN wins 500k for no risk

How often does JA have to fold for DN to make a profit with this move? Remember that JA almost certainly has a better hand than DN ... its very hard for him to have a worse one.

Scouser in Dub · 10-11-2006 02:53PM

DN wins as long as JA folds 45% of the time

Though this assumes DN's outs are good when he is called and he has 33% equity

Gholimoli · 10-11-2006 03:12PM

am i missing something here .
if DN has 33% pot equity here then the move it self regardless of JA folding is profitable.

my assumtions are that DN will win 2.7m 33% and will lose 1.2mil 67%.
if the above assumtions are correct then this is profitable even if JA calls 100% of the time.
so add all thoes times that JA fold and you will see the power of this play.

Scouser in Dub · 10-11-2006 03:37PM

You are right and I have no idea how my maths got that fecked

My thinking was over 100 hands

100 x 900,000 His average return =90,000,000
100x 1,225,000 His investment = 122,500,000

where

55 x 900,000 = 49,500,000
45 x 425,000 Already in the pot + 45 x 1,225,000 His returned bet = 74250000

so if anyone can explain how I ****ed that up much appreciated

Anyway that still assumes that his equity is 33% if called which i dont think it can be

Gholimoli · 10-11-2006 03:48PM

Scouser in Dub wrote:

Anyway that still assumes that his equity is 33% if called which i dont think it can be

if his got 16 outs then equity is around 33%.
and i think its safe to assume he has them outs.

fuzzbox · 10-11-2006 03:51PM

Gholimoli wrote:

am i missing something here .
if DN has 33% pot equity here then the move it self regardless of JA folding is profitable.

my assumtions are that DN will win 2.7m 33% and will lose 1.2mil 67%.
if the above assumtions are correct then this is profitable even if JA calls 100% of the time.
so add all thoes times that JA fold and you will see the power of this play.

He cant win 2.7 million 33% as you are counting his 1.2mill in that.

He will win 1.5million 33% and lose 1.2 mil 67%

fuzzbox · 10-11-2006 03:53PM

425x + (1-x)((.33)(2700) - 1250)

x = ~45%

45% is the breakeven zone for profit.

Surely Arieh can fold the worst 45% of his possible hands to this action here.

In fact he needs a pretty good hand to call - and he is not likely to have one ... *especially* given the action.

Scouser in Dub · 10-11-2006 03:55PM

fuzzbox wrote:

He cant win 2.7 million 33% as you are counting his 1.2mill in that.

He will win 1.5million 33% and lose 1.2 mil 67%

Thats kinda what I was thinking

With regard to the outs a better flush draw would have to be factored in if JA calls and thats without considering dominated hole cards for a pair on the river or a gutshot if a 6 fell

Maybe not huge in themself but taken together has to be a % that affects the equity when called

fuzzbox · 10-11-2006 03:56PM

if he has a bigger fd, then our 9s and 6s become outs.
Besides, he has to fold a flush draw, getting 2:1 with one card to come.

Scouser in Dub · 10-11-2006 04:03PM

surely he only has to fold it if he knows he needs it

I know it's leaning towards results orientated thinking but JA was ahead on the turn, that he knows DN could move in with air/draw/made hand his call depends on his reading of DN

I know JA should need a pretty good hand to call but his raise on the river with air and giving DN 4.5/1 suggests he would need less than most to call an all in on the turn

fuzzbox · 10-11-2006 05:04PM

There is a big difference between raising and calling.

He doesnt need a hand to raise ... but he does to call.

hotspur · 10-11-2006 05:24PM

Gholimoli wrote:

i have no idea what this comment has to do with the arhument here?

Sorry I perhaps should have pointed that I consider Gus Hansen to be the best player out there for playing drawing hands, thought that was a widely held view, obviously not here so.

You can calculate the various specific equities and odds as if you're playing the middle levels of a random tourny til the clows come but perhaps a player as talented as Negreanu with a good stack on the final table of a big money tourny doesn't want to tank it with 10 high. I don't blame him as I think most top players wouldn't make that play either.

I'd like to hear the opinions of the likes of Daithio and others on this one.

Scouser in Dub · 10-11-2006 05:48PM

fuzzbox wrote:

There is a big difference between raising and calling.

He doesnt need a hand to raise ... but he does to call.

I'd agree but raising for 450k into a pot of 2.25M seems madness I know it could appear strong and was asking for a call but with the stack size of DN and the pot size DN is going to call with a bluff catcher

fuzzbox · 10-11-2006 05:51PM

Scouser in Dub wrote:

I'd agree but raising for 450k into a pot of 2.25M seems madness I know it could appear strong and was asking for a call but with the stack size of DN and the pot size DN is going to call with a bluff catcher

The turn play has nothing to do with the river play.
Just because he RAISED his stack in on the river (which showed 4 cards to a straight) ... does not mean that he would CALL off his stack (and tourney) with QcJc.

Hectorjelly · 10-11-2006 05:58PM

hotspur wrote:

Sorry I perhaps should have pointed that I consider Gus Hansen to be the best player out there for playing drawing hands, thought that was a widely held view, obviously not here so.

joke?

hotspur · 11-11-2006 02:38AM

I wasn't joking, I've watched an awful lot of Hansen playing poker and I think he plays speculative hands very very well, as does Negreanu. Both will call check or call in situations where the Sklansky police will say a raise is the best play and I like their play more than that of most top players.

I probably shouldn't have mentioned Hansen, in fact I could have put literally any player in the world (except maybe Ivey) there and got the same reaction. Something about HH threads brings it out in people, why I normally try to avoid them but got tricked by the thread title

HJ, would you have chosen to raise the super-aggro Arieh in that spot on the turn on the final table of a big tournament? I haven't read HOH III but I assume Harrington was making a simple point about playing a draw out of position against a super-aggro player. Needing a fold 45% of the time to breakeven against a very unconservative player is a pretty high requirement.

fuzzbox · 11-11-2006 07:04AM

hotspur wrote:

Needing a fold 45% of the time to breakeven against a very unconservative player is a pretty high requirement.

No its not.

I disagree with pretty much 90% of HoH III

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