Lots of outs but two all-ins before me!

Iago · 05-06-2007 11:31PM #1

Is this a clearcut fold? I think Villain is isolating the shortstack, but what's his range for doing that? We've potentially 18 outs, but realistically the Q or K must be behind here no?

Green Joke Poker Philippolis 0.25/0.50, hand converted by the iPoker Converter at Talking-Poker

Button ($52.95)
SB ($16.75)
BB Hero ($52.70)
UTG ($18.10)
UTG+1 ($77.81)
CO ($79.50)

Preflop: Hero is in the BB with Q

K

UTG calls 0.50, UTG+1 calls 0.50, 1 fold, Button calls 0.50, SB calls 0.25, Hero checks.

Flop (2.50) T

8

9

SB checks, Hero bets 1.50, UTG moves all-in for 17.60, 1 fold, Button moves all-in for 52.45, Hero??

Chucky the tree · 06-06-2007 12:13AM

insta call.

Rb · 06-06-2007 12:16AM

Any stats or reads?

I'd call anyway.

mdwexford · 06-06-2007 12:19AM

52.20 to win 73.80, 1.41/1

if all our 13 flush and straight outs are live its a marginal call imo but from the action ahead of you i doubt they are. its possible your up against a made straight or the nut flush draw. i fold

phantom_lord · 06-06-2007 12:20AM

i think this is a fold actually.

HeeHawsCantona · 06-06-2007 12:21AM

easy fold - you're obviously behind and a non diamond jack could very well be your only out.

HeeHawsCantona · 06-06-2007 12:24AM

sorry thought it was 8d 10d - so you very possibly only have 4 outs - I'd fold it quickly with those stacks involved - if you had 20 quid or so I might call

sikes · 06-06-2007 12:31AM

This is a fold. Although you have a royal flush draw so I probably call and hope for a bad beat jackpot

Sirtoyou · 06-06-2007 04:14AM

You could very easily be in a situation where you have only 4 outs
you are likely to see nut fush draw and made straight

DeadParrot · 06-06-2007 08:41AM

With the action ahead of me, this is a fold

Iago · 06-06-2007 10:59AM

Chucky the tree wrote:

insta call.

why? What do you think my opps have?

Sikes wrote:

This is a fold. Although you have a royal flush draw so I probably call and hope for a bad beat jackpot

That's exactly what I was thinking, if the Jd lands on the turn or river or worse if the Ad and Jd land on turn or river I'll be kicking myself for a month

but...

given the preflop action I don't think we see AA-88 here from either player. Or at least if it was me I wouldn't be limping preflop from UTG with that range, or not raising the button when it came to me. Of course assuming that other players play like me is one of my biggest leaks so that's not much help.

I doubt either player has a straight here, and I've discounted a set, so I think I'm up against two pair, one pair and an OESD or nut flush draw with or without a pair a lot of the time. and judging by some of the play at these limits I'm up against Ad Tx at least some of the time from one player and possibly A9/K9 from the shortstack some of the time.

I was calling the shortstack instantly but with the button pushing I think it's probably a fold, but I don't think it's an instant decision either way.

Bandana boy · 06-06-2007 01:58PM

So you have a non nut flush draw and a gut shot
Into a pot 3.50 you have people bettting 17 bills and 50 bills each one all in
I think you can assume your not going to win hitting a K or Q so you have maybe 12 outs twice but likely closer to 10 your not getting those odds and sometimes this will be nut straight and nut flush draw giving you 4 outs

I think we can fold our flush draw when the first dude bets 5 times the pot and second 2 and a half times the pot

that said it is a pretty hand

Iago · 06-06-2007 10:27PM

imo it's a lot closer than some people think, but it's a fold.

I did fold in the end, shortstack had Ks Jh for an OESD, button had Tc 9c for top two pair.

Turn was a blank and river was the 3d which would have completed the flush.

Lots of outs but two all-ins before me!

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