Hillview Boy - 15.15 Doncaster (Saturday)

From a betting perspective, the November Handicap has a real end-of-season feel to it. There have been some big-priced winners in the last few years which haven't been easy to find.

At first glance this year's renewal appears highly competitive. Having said that, with conditions almost certainly to be soft a number of these can be ruled out immediately. To narrow the field down further, I always find it useful to look at some of the previous trends: Seventeen of the last 19 winners finished in the top four last time out. Eight of the last 10 winners came from double-figure stalls. Only one of the last 10 winners had raced less than five times in the campaign.

Jim Goldie's Hillview Boy has the ideal profile for a race such as this being a progressive, relatively lightly-raced 5-year-old. He's proven at the track, versatile as regards ground and looks to be on a fair mark here. On his last run which was here at Doncaster, Hillview Boy was the only one in the field to make any impression on the eventual winner. Coming from off the pace in what was a slowly-run event, he couldn't quite land a blow. I rated that as a strong performance in what proved to be a tactical affair as he was still 7lb higher than when winning over 1m 2f on soft ground again at Doncaster in August.

Admittedly, his two wins on the Flat have been over shorter, but he is a bumper winner over 16 furlongs and stamina won't be an issue with the forecast soft ground suiting his knee action. In addition, this race is invariably run at a strong gallop which will suit Hillview Boy as he tends to race freely, coming from off the pace. Due to his style of racing, he will undoubtedly need an element of luck in running and this is always going to be a risk in big fields such as this. He hasn't had too much good fortune so far this season with poor tactics and a bad draw ruining his chances in 2 valuable handicaps at Ayr and York. The jockey booking and experience of Chris Catlin, who rides Hillview Boy for the first time tomorrow, can hopefully put him there or thereabouts at the finish.

Due to the ground conditions, there has been a fair amount of support for Hillview Boy in the past few hours and he is now a best priced 11-1. Taking everything into account, he remains of interest as I had set a minimum price of 10-1 on my calculations for betting purposes.