Rip Van Winkle vs Twice Over

HigginsJ · 21-08-2010 12:21PM #1

1 mile 2 Furlongs Rip Van Winkle vs Twice Over. Or is there another horse to beat them over this distance?

smartaform · 23-08-2010 09:33PM

How would Twice over possibly beat RVW??????????

Warper · 01-09-2010 11:11AM

We will find out this Sat in the Champion Stakes. RVW is the bookies clear choice @ evens and Twice Over @ 11-4. Cant argue with that - RVW is a better horse for sure.

UrbanSea · 01-09-2010 11:15AM

Fame and Glory not going so?

UrbanSea · 01-09-2010 11:39AM

Warper where did you see even money about Rip?

HigginsJ · 01-09-2010 11:58AM

Shaping up to be a cracking race saturday. Have seen nohting yet for prices. Fame and Glory and Cape Blanco still engaged.

UrbanSea · 01-09-2010 12:19PM

Fame and glory looks like N/R. Was there at evens but now no bookies have odds on him.

UrbanSea · 01-09-2010 12:20PM

He's also 17/2 on betfair,seems high if he were to be running.

Nulty · 01-09-2010 06:00PM

Rip was EVENS with Ladbrokes before FAG was withdrawn

UrbanSea · 02-09-2010 11:52AM

Lawl at FAG.

Nulty · 02-09-2010 05:49PM

"Ahhh...Lovely Fags"

UrbanSea · 03-09-2010 11:58PM

I think Twice Over might nick it tomorrow.

mike65 · 04-09-2010 02:50PM

Well that wasn't meant to happen!

UrbanSea · 04-09-2010 02:56PM

Confirms that Rip isn't miles ahead of Twice Over. Showing he truly is a group 1 horse.

convert · 04-09-2010 04:52PM

mike65 wrote: »

Well that wasn't meant to happen!

Yep, bit of a 'shock' alright...

Anyone have a few bob on him?

UrbanSea · 04-09-2010 04:59PM

I was in ladbrokes today and got half my stake refunded as a free bet (10 euro) so had a tenner double on rip and starspangledbanner. Was a bit of a stupid bet I know.

Nulty · 04-09-2010 04:59PM

greetings wrote: »

Confirms that Rip isn't miles ahead of Twice Over. Showing he truly is a group 1 horse.

I voted RVW but suggested a bet on Twice Over at the prices (4/1). Totally agree with you greetings. Discrepancy in the price was over estimated by many.

Fair play to Cape B and Shamie Heff though. He's some man out on a lead

UrbanSea · 04-09-2010 07:53PM

Cape Blanco should make a lovely 4 year old. Hopefully we'll get to see him for a few more seasons.

HigginsJ · 05-09-2010 08:17AM

Great ride from Heffernan.

Guess Cape Blanco is somewhat underrated/overlooked horse. Only been beaten twice in 8 races. Dante winner, Irish Derby, Irish Champion Stakes. Runner Up in a King George.

UrbanSea · 05-09-2010 12:16PM

True,I think if Johnny rode him over Rip then Cape would have been odds on.

Morgans · 05-09-2010 06:01PM

He wouldnt have been odds on. Just not the form for it, but Heffernan said after that he would have ridden RVW if he had the choice. It was clear who everyone at Ballydoyle thought was their number 1. Cape Blanco was a little underrated because of RVW presence.

Nulty · 05-09-2010 06:32PM

Morgans wrote: »

He wouldnt have been odds on. Just not the form for it, but Heffernan said after that he would have ridden RVW if he had the choice. It was clear who everyone at Ballydoyle thought was their number 1. Cape Blanco was a little underrated because of RVW presence.

This is right but I listened to the race on the radio in the car and when I heard "Cape Blanco by 3 lengths" I raised an eyebrow...when I heard "by 5 lengths" I knew it was all over. I didn't even need to be watching the race to know that everyone but Shamie got it totally wrong. I know the plan is for Rip to track the main rival in almost every race he's run beyond a mile but hearing an Irish Derby winner by a sprinting family has a 5 length lead is just stupid. No other description for it.

UrbanSea · 06-09-2010 01:42AM

Alright odds on is an exaggeration. But
1)Rip wouldn't have been odds on.
2)Cape Blanco would have been shorter than 3/1. Cape Blanco has already achieved more than Rip,even before the race was run.

Morgans · 06-09-2010 05:52AM

Second point is very much open for debate. If they were running the race in two weeks time, I'm not sure Murtagh would switch to Cape Blanco if the going was genuinely good/fast. I'm not sure he would have stayed so far off him either of given the chance. RVW has been rated 10lbs superior as a 3yo, just took a very long time to pick up in the ground and hasnt recaptured his best form this year. But I dont think much of the Irish Derby form and I wouldnt bank on Cape Blanco repeating this form next time out.

HigginsJ · 06-09-2010 03:13PM

Morgans wrote: »

Second point is very much open for debate. If they were running the race in two weeks time, I'm not sure Murtagh would switch to Cape Blanco if the going was genuinely good/fast. I'm not sure he would have stayed so far off him either of given the chance. RVW has been rated 10lbs superior as a 3yo, just took a very long time to pick up in the ground and hasnt recaptured his best form this year. But I dont think much of the Irish Derby form and I wouldnt bank on Cape Blanco repeating this form next time out.

Cape Blanco also has the Dante form and the King George form. Its starting to get tough to doubt him. I said in another post about O'Brien horses being under appreciated and under-rated and i think this may be a case in point. Cape Blanco trained by Stoute, Cecil or Oxx and we would be hearing about what a wonder horse he is.

Just look a Harbinger and Workforce. One off performers rated higher than consistently brilliant O'Brien horses.

Morgans · 06-09-2010 03:21PM

HigginsJ wrote: »

Cape Blanco also has the Dante form and the King George form. Its starting to get tough to doubt him. I said in another post about O'Brien horses being under appreciated and under-rated and i think this may be a case in point. Cape Blanco trained by Stoute, Cecil or Oxx and we would be hearing about what a wonder horse he is.

Just look a Harbinger and Workforce. One off performers rated higher than consistently brilliant O'Brien horses.

The fact that Harbinger hammered Cape Blanco in the King George suggests that he has claim to being superior. And does somewhat hamper the point about O'Brien horses being under-rated. Ratings arent done on consistency, they are one-off ratings of one performance. Cape Blanco's form on Saturday still wont be better than RVW runner up in the eclipse last year.

But a Dante win and an Iirsh Derby win still doesnt compare well to RVW 3 gp1s. Not to mention being the horse to give Sea The Stars a proper race. Now that Cape Blanco has added an Irish Champion to his record, his fans have a greater arguement, but definitely not before the race. (the point i was making)

The people who underrated Cape Blanco most seem to be Ballydoyle.

Everyone there expected Rip Van Winkle to be his superior. And Im not sure that if the two were to meet in a months time on good ground, that CB would be the stable's favourite.

UrbanSea · 06-09-2010 06:56PM

Cape Blanco has shown consistently that he is a brilliant horse,you'd wonder which Rip turns up on the day. Breeders Cup he blew out. Royal Ascot was shocking. And I don't agree with this 'he needed the run' ****,if he needs a run,you don't throw him into a competitive group 1 race. If he needs the run you put him in a listed race in Ireland,like Fame and Glory had at the start of the season,or like when Mastercraftsman won a group 3 in Dundalk last year before going to America. Bull ****,you don't send a horse across the pond to take on the best mare over a mile when you need to freshen up.

Morgans · 06-09-2010 07:10PM

greetings wrote: »

Cape Blanco has shown consistently that he is a brilliant horse,you'd wonder which Rip turns up on the day. Breeders Cup he blew out. Royal Ascot was shocking. And I don't agree with this 'he needed the run' ****,if he needs a run,you don't throw him into a competitive group 1 race. If he needs the run you put him in a listed race in Ireland,like Fame and Glory had at the start of the season,or like when Mastercraftsman won a group 3 in Dundalk last year before going to America. Bull ****,you don't send a horse across the pond to take on the best mare over a mile when you need to freshen up.

On RVW, I'm amazed that people are so quick to think O'Brien and Murtagh (and Heffernan) don't know what they are doing and to second guess their schedule and are so quick to write off their opinions between the two horses.

On Cape Blanco's consistency, aren't we pretty conveniently forgetting Chantilly and 9l defeat by Harbinger for the sake of this argument? If Cape Blanco is as good as you think, Harbinger probably was the greatest horse we have seen, maybe ever and dwarfs Sea the Stars.

To me, Cape Blanco has put up one top class performance this year - last Saturday was a true group 1 performance. I think he benefited from the shape of the race and a very good ride. Well done to him. But I would be surprised if he isnt behind RVW (still) at 10f, and Fame and Glory over 12f for O'Brien. No disgrace in that, but others might think they know better than O'Brien.

Nulty · 06-09-2010 07:48PM

Morgans wrote: »

On RVW, I'm amazed that people are so quick to think O'Brien and Murtagh (and Heffernan) don't know what they are doing and to second guess their schedule and are so quick to write off their opinions between the two horses.

I think Ballydoyle wonder what Rip Van Winkle is going to do each time they send him out. It's easy to tell that they find him a little hard to predict themselves.

I watched the RTE coverage of Leopardstown (recorded) on Sunday and I gleaned two things.

1) Yes Greetings, I heard the moron call Cape Blanco a gelding :eek:

2) Twice Murtagh was questioned about Rip and once he diverted the question to Lillie Langtry and next stood there unable to find words. There was a massive element of doubt in their minds on the day of the race IMO. Massive. The ground or the horses demeanor or the mood they percieved in him that day. Whatever the case (in hindsight of course!) it was clear they weren't bouyant about his chances on the day.

UrbanSea · 06-09-2010 08:06PM

Morgans wrote: »

On RVW, I'm amazed that people are so quick to think O'Brien and Murtagh (and Heffernan) don't know what they are doing and to second guess their schedule and are so quick to write off their opinions between the two horses.

On Cape Blanco's consistency, aren't we pretty conveniently forgetting Chantilly and 9l defeat by Harbinger for the sake of this argument? If Cape Blanco is as good as you think, Harbinger probably was the greatest horse we have seen, maybe ever and dwarfs Sea the Stars.

To me, Cape Blanco has put up one top class performance this year - last Saturday was a true group 1 performance. I think he benefited from the shape of the race and a very good ride. Well done to him. But I would be surprised if he isnt behind RVW (still) at 10f, and Fame and Glory over 12f for O'Brien. No disgrace in that, but others might think they know better than O'Brien.

I think questioning Cape Blanco's consistency is stupid,he's won 6 from 8,finishing down the field in France(O'Brien hasn't had the best record of late sending horses there) and the other was second,although beaten 11 lengths.I've said it before,Harbinger isn't the fantastic horse he is being made out to look. Cape Blanco and Workforce ran that race as if it was a match between the two,both were ridden stupidly,I bet Pasquier couldn't believe his luck when he saw how close to the pace they were ridden. Pity I won't see them race against each other again.
I don't think he has much to prove,in fact,I'd say Rip has more to prove.
I'd take Cape Blanco over him over 12,but not 10. And I don't know about Fame and Glory,his last run left a little to be desired,but everyone know's that he's better than that.

UrbanSea · 06-09-2010 08:07PM

Nulty wrote: »

1) Yes Greetings, I heard the moron call Cape Blanco a gelding :eek:

I knew I wasn't just being thick :pac:

Morgans · 06-09-2010 08:19PM

greetings wrote: »

I think questioning Cape Blanco's consistency is stupid,he's won 6 from 8,finishing down the field in France(O'Brien hasn't had the best record of late sending horses there) and the other was second,although beaten 11 lengths.I've said it before,Harbinger isn't the fantastic horse he is being made out to look. Cape Blanco and Workforce ran that race as if it was a match between the two,both were ridden stupidly,I bet Pasquier couldn't believe his luck when he saw how close to the pace they were ridden. Pity I won't see them race against each other again.
I don't think he has much to prove,in fact,I'd say Rip has more to prove.
I'd take Cape Blanco over him over 12,but not 10. And I don't know about Fame and Glory,his last run left a little to be desired,but everyone know's that he's better than that.

If you forget France, which I think you can write off as being unaccountably bad, he has been consistent but at a level that was just off a top group 1 performer. The form of the Irish Derby is below what you'd want to see in the race (he was clearly the best horse in the race) and he was beaten into a different parish by Harbinger.

I'd rate him to have improved by 3l on Saturday and it was a proper G1 performance.

But I do think that RVW wont be the last horse to fail in a breeders cup and virtually all of O'Brien's horses needed their runs this year - especially if they are planning busy midsummers continuing on to Breeders Cup. There are a lot of reasons why O'Brien and Coolmore would want to give RVW his first start in the Queen Anne when not cherry ripe.

UrbanSea · 06-09-2010 08:31PM

Morgans wrote: »

If you forget France, which I think you can write off as being unaccountably bad, he has been consistent but at a level that was just off a top group 1 performer. The form of the Irish Derby is below what you'd want to see in the race (he was clearly the best horse in the race) and he was beaten into a different parish by Harbinger.

I'd rate him to have improved by 3l on Saturday and it was a proper G1 performance.

But I do think that RVW wont be the last horse to fail in a breeders cup and virtually all of O'Brien's horses needed their runs this year - especially if they are planning busy midsummers continuing on to Breeders Cup. There are a lot of reasons why O'Brien and Coolmore would want to give RVW his first start in the Queen Anne when not cherry ripe.

Agreed about the Irish Derby,I don't rate Midas Touch as much more than Group 2,shows how weak the Ledger is this year.
I can't see too many reasons as to why you would want to send a horse in to that race when not 100%. Could you imagine if he came out of that injured?
Moving onto the form.
Look back at the horses Rip has beaten in some of the top races;some of them aren't starting to look too hot now.One that is standing out to me right now is the QEII. He was nearly beaten by Zacinto,by far the most disappointing horse of the season,he couldn't even land a Listed race at Thirsk. Delegator was always over hyped to me. His best performance for me was beating Ghanaati in the Sussex (not Paco boy),but when she failed to win the Saphera stakes it had me worried.Even in the Guineas,he finished behind Gan Amhras,who can't buy a win.
At the end of last season,he looked a true star. Looking at the form now,it isn't as strong as I myself thought it to be.

Morgans · 06-09-2010 08:41PM

greetings wrote: »

Agreed about the Irish Derby,I don't rate Midas Touch as much more than Group 2,shows how weak the Ledger is this year.
I can't see too many reasons as to why you would want to send a horse in to that race when not 100%. Could you imagine if he came out of that injured?
Moving onto the form.
Look back at the horses Rip has beaten in some of the top races;some of them aren't starting to look too hot now.One that is standing out to me right now is the QEII. He was nearly beaten by Zacinto,by far the most disappointing horse of the season,he couldn't even land a Listed race at Thirsk. Delegator was always over hyped to me. His best performance for me was beating Ghanaati in the Sussex (not Paco boy),but when she failed to win the Saphera stakes it had me worried.Even in the Guineas,he finished behind Gan Amhras,who can't buy a win.
At the end of last season,he looked a true star. Looking at the form now,it isn't as strong as I myself thought it to be.

You are missing his best performance when getting closer to Sea the Stars than any other horse - a long way clear of Conduit.

UrbanSea · 06-09-2010 08:48PM

What's to say that Sea the Stars didn't run to as high of a standard as usual? Plenty of horses have come close to better horses and will again,with a better performance by them and a lesser performance by the other.

Morgans · 06-09-2010 09:00PM

greetings wrote: »

What's to say that Sea the Stars didn't run to as high of a standard as usual? Plenty of horses have come close to better horses and will again,with a better performance by them and a lesser performance by the other.

Its the collateral form. Conduit running to pretty much the same level throughout the summer, winning the King George less than a month later. Course record that way as well. It was a pretty straightforward race to rate with Conduit. Maybe Sea the Stars possibly didn't run to form, but regardless of that, (i personally think he only did enough) the form of the race is such that Rip Van Winkle ran his best race that day by a few lengths. If not, the whole framework of form will fall down.

westlife2010 · 06-09-2010 11:08PM

Cape won the Dante very well, did not travel at any stage in France and has been a model of consistancy since. Wins the Irish Derby and a clear second to Harbinger(beating Group 1 stalwarts Youmzain and Daryakana by over 3L), and if you take Harbinger out of the race it would be a really impressive win. In reference to the Champion.......sometimes you can make excuses in a race when the pace is questioned but when a horse makes his own running and quickens away 2 out like he did, it is a monster performance. On another note... O'Brien's comments post race I found a little strange. The whole "Rip is a miler thats gets 10 furlongs" when you consider on his previous run he needed every yard of the 10f to get to the Abdulla pair?

My post race thoughts:
At Leopardstown, over 10 furlongs and with a little juice in the ground, I would always back Cape to beat Rip...... I would back him against any horse under these conditions.
And whatever you think about Harbinger being 'one of the greats', that performance at Ascot ....to do what he did against proven G1 horses (not just the winning distance, but the way he travelled) and cape's win at the weekend makes this probably the greatest flat performance I have seen in my life time

UrbanSea · 07-09-2010 12:14PM

Morgans wrote: »

Its the collateral form. Conduit running to pretty much the same level throughout the summer, winning the King George less than a month later. Course record that way as well. It was a pretty straightforward race to rate with Conduit. Maybe Sea the Stars possibly didn't run to form, but regardless of that, (i personally think he only did enough) the form of the race is such that Rip Van Winkle ran his best race that day by a few lengths. If not, the whole framework of form will fall down.

Rip hasn't produced a run nearly as good since,and don't think he will. Conduit excelled in America,Rip couldn't handle the big one. I wish O'Brien would send his horses to Dubai,see if he can truly take on the best horses in the world.

westlife2010 wrote: »

Cape won the Dante very well, did not travel at any stage in France and has been a model of consistancy since. Wins the Irish Derby and a clear second to Harbinger(beating Group 1 stalwarts Youmzain and Daryakana by over 3L), and if you take Harbinger out of the race it would be a really impressive win. In reference to the Champion.......sometimes you can make excuses in a race when the pace is questioned but when a horse makes his own running and quickens away 2 out like he did, it is a monster performance. On another note... O'Brien's comments post race I found a little strange. The whole "Rip is a miler thats gets 10 furlongs" when you consider on his previous run he needed every yard of the 10f to get to the Abdulla pair?

My post race thoughts:
At Leopardstown, over 10 furlongs and with a little juice in the ground, I would always back Cape to beat Rip...... I would back him against any horse under these conditions.
And whatever you think about Harbinger being 'one of the greats', that performance at Ascot ....to do what he did against proven G1 horses (not just the winning distance, but the way he travelled) and cape's win at the weekend makes this probably the greatest flat performance I have seen in my life time

I don't think Ballydoyle know Rip's best distance,after all,he even ran in the Derby.
I can't wait to see Harbinger's fans who think he is the best horse who ever existed get let down a little when his offspring are mediocre,however,I know that says nothing about his racing performance. I've been saying it constatnly,Cape Blanco never would have lost by that margin if it wasn't for the tactics they went for in that race. They never saw Harbinger as a threat and went into a stupid head to head race with Workforce,forgetting the group 2 horse in the race. As for Youmzain,it's obvious he doesn't know how to win,but likes finishing second in the Arc. Daryakana has taken leaps backwards this year,but wait for soft ground come Arc day,and watch her beat the boys.

Morgans · 07-09-2010 12:34PM

Im not a Ballydoyle cheerleader but Im amazed by the number of people who are quick to second-guess everything they do. There are so many factors at play with regard to the breeders cup. End of a long season, the travelling, drugs, draw that its not the true barometer of greatness. True greats, proper true great horses like Dancing Brave and Dayjur can get hammered over there. Decent but not great European horses like Tikkanen, Shiekh Albadou, Brief Truce can excel. Its never reliable form.

As for Dubai, I think that is even less reliable. Its hardly the case that all the best horses in the world end up in Dubai, apart from Ballydoyle. Unfortunately for the Sheikhs the best horses are generally being prepared traditionally, while those who focus on Dubai can get some easy pay-days. Horses like Asiatic Boy can look close to being the world's best there but finish down the field when coming to England. Its a very very debatable statement to say its definitely where the best racing is held.

And the idea that Harbinger's ability in stud being any reflection of his ability as a racehorse and might prove your point about Cape Blanco not being ridden well at Ascot is completely off the wall. There are hundreds of top class performers who flopped at stud. Saddlers Wells wasnt nearly the class of El Gran Senor on the track. I think you are very quick to dismiss Harbinger's performance. It wasnt as if he was an unconsidered outsider in the race, he was shorter than Cape Blanco, and Cape Blanco I think would have gone from the front in any case. As APOB said, he is a 10f horse that can get 12f. Just not good enough to cope with Harbinger.

Warper · 07-09-2010 02:53PM

According to the ratings Harbinger is one of the best horses of all time which is ludicrous. He won 1 Group 1, thats right just one. His performance in the King George was sensational and one of the best but you cant class him as an all-time great based on one performance. Horses can produce great performances on any given day but to be a truly great horse you need to beat the best around consistently ala STS last year or Zarkava, Dalakhani, Montjeu, Alamshar etc. etc. These are great horses whereas Harbinger won one solitary Group 1. We will never know but I reckon he would have never won the Arc this year. Wise move retiring him before he was found it. Sure based on one performance Sole Power is the best sprinter around/

Morgans · 07-09-2010 03:29PM

Warper wrote: »

According to the ratings Harbinger is one of the best horses of all time which is ludicrous. He won 1 Group 1, thats right just one. His performance in the King George was sensational and one of the best but you cant class him as an all-time great based on one performance. Horses can produce great performances on any given day but to be a truly great horse you need to beat the best around consistently ala STS last year or Zarkava, Dalakhani, Montjeu, Alamshar etc. etc. These are great horses whereas Harbinger won one solitary Group 1. We will never know but I reckon he would have never won the Arc this year. Wise move retiring him before he was found it. Sure based on one performance Sole Power is the best sprinter around/

Some 12f horses have probably been better than him, its very doubtful that they were racing this year, but the idea that Harbinger was retired in some way strategically to protect is reputation is well wide the mark. Harbinger would have been justifiably long odds on to win a second before he was retired. He was definitely in the right hands to develop even furhter as he aged. Alamshar won two group 1s, one where he benefitted from an awful ride on Dalakhani and he is considered a great.

Sole Power may just be the best sprinter around. I dont think there was any fluke about his win and he will be very close again at York next year.

Warper · 07-09-2010 09:00PM

Morgans wrote: »

Some 12f horses have probably been better than him, its very doubtful that they were racing this year, but the idea that Harbinger was retired in some way strategically to protect is reputation is well wide the mark. Harbinger would have been justifiably long odds on to win a second before he was retired. He was definitely in the right hands to develop even furhter as he aged. Alamshar won two group 1s, one where he benefitted from an awful ride on Dalakhani and he is considered a great.

Sole Power may just be the best sprinter around. I dont think there was any fluke about his win and he will be very close again at York next year.

I actually meant Azamour but Alamshar was a brilliant horse, maybe not great but he won more in his career than Harbinger. It is a shame that Harbinger is retired as we will never know how good he is but I feel people are over-reacting to one race. The King George was actually the first Group 1 he had ran in and he was a 4 yr old! Even the owners and Stoute thought Workforce would win the King George and they were very surprised after it so obviously he didnt show that at home or in another race as he never ran in any top races.

Regards Sole Power, he was a 100-1 winner with no form, that says it all. If you consider him to be the best sprinter around, well lets see what he does next as he clearly isnt. Harbinger can never be considered a great just because he ran in and won one Group 1 race.

Morgans · 07-09-2010 09:22PM

Warper wrote: »

I actually meant Azamour but Alamshar was a brilliant horse, maybe not great but he won more in his career than Harbinger. It is a shame that Harbinger is retired as we will never know how good he is but I feel people are over-reacting to one race. The King George was actually the first Group 1 he had ran in and he was a 4 yr old! Even the owners and Stoute thought Workforce would win the King George and they were very surprised after it so obviously he didnt show that at home or in another race as he never ran in any top races.

Regards Sole Power, he was a 100-1 winner with no form, that says it all. If you consider him to be the best sprinter around, well lets see what he does next as he clearly isnt. Harbinger can never be considered a great just because he ran in and won one Group 1 race.

I dont think Harbinger was the greatest ever, but I think you are being in no way objective. If you have followed Stoute, for decades, he has developed horses slowly and ends up with super older horses. Horses like Pilsudski who step up slowly through handicaps at 3 before developing into top class horses at 4 and beyond. He is famous for it, and better at it than anyone in the world. Harbinger was another in this list. A perfect Stoute type to continue developing. If he had continually failed in group 1s before AScot and afterwards never produced anything like the King George form again, you'd have some arguement, but any reasonable objective form reader wouldnt degrade the horse's performance because he was injured after and never got the chance to repeat it. Had he raced on and failed you'd have some arguement. As it stands, the best evidence of the horse's ability is what he did on the track. He was progressing and in no way near finished improving when winning at Ascot.

He had previously won easily at Royal Ascot and was second favourite for the King George. Ahead of Cape Blanco. Very fancied by Timeform (whatever they know). They had an impressive Derby winner in opposition and fair enough he was a stablemate but Harbinger had strong form claims and they definitely werent "very surprised". I've absolutely no doubt he was the best 12f in training this year, and by some distance. The only question is where he fits in in all time lists. The form of the race of course was given a boost by Cape Blanco. And although I dont believe greetings point that he was ridden incorrect, i think there is a bigger doubt about his ability to stay in a proper group 1, I dont think Harbinger was flattered by more than a couple of lengths.

The idea that the trainer (not the owners) didnt know Harbinger was capable of doing it is 100% wrong. You seem to think he hadnt been showing it at home or in his previous races (3 out of 3 this year before the King George). Ask yourself, if the stable didnt think he had a chance, why did they run him? Also, remember once again, he was second favourite. There were plenty of people who thought rightly he would win. Race record victory, second comes out and wins Irish champion by 5l, all suggests to a huge performance.

And with Sole Power, a 3yo, who had his right conditions at York. He might be a flash in the pan, but again, leave him prove you right first. He travelled like the best horse in that race and could have been called the winner a long way from home. Its rare you get that class in a 5f sprint. While his form before didnt suggest he could do that, he should be given respect for doing it.

Morgans · 07-09-2010 09:30PM

There is absolutely no comparison between what Harbinger did in the King George and Azamour's form where he was beating the likes of Norse Dancer and Ace by 1l. Neither of those horses ever won a group 1. And yet Azamour qualifies as a "great".

HigginsJ · 07-09-2010 10:06PM

Morgans wrote: »

There is absolutely no comparison between what Harbinger did in the King George and Azamour's form where he was beating the likes of Norse Dancer and Ace by 1l. Neither of those horses ever won a group 1. And yet Azamour qualifies as a "great".

Azamour won St James Palace Stakes over 1mile, Prince of Wales over 1mile2f and a King George over 1mile4f. I wouldnt call him a great but trumps Harbingers sole Group 1.

Morgans · 07-09-2010 10:22PM

HigginsJ wrote: »

Azamour won St James Palace Stakes over 1mile, Prince of Wales over 1mile2f and a King George over 1mile4f. I wouldnt call him a great but trumps Harbingers sole Group 1.

Yep. Another great ad of Oxx's talents. Fine horse that he was, there have been at least a dozen better than Azamour in the past ten years, Harbinger being one of them. By how much is debatable. I'd suspect that reading Harbinger's form conservatively, he'd be 5lbs below.

Morgans · 07-09-2010 10:44PM

FWIW, I had another look at the King George to see if there was some semblance of O'Donoghue looking to beat Workforce and neglecting Harbinger. I do think they were keeping tabs on each other, WorkForce was the horse to beat. When O'Donoghue saw Workforce come under pressure on the home turn, he kicked on to pass the pacemaker and put the race to bed. Was definitely ridden as if he truly stayed the distance.

There is a great shot of Peslier taking a pull about 2 seconds after O'Donoghue kicked. 8.33 on the video here.

http://www.attheraces.com/VideoConsole/?va=ASC_2010_07_24_06_1625

At 8.20 Murtagh was travelling smoothly on Cape Blanco, happy with his position behind the pacemaker.

There was never any question of who was going to win the race. The distance he puts between himself and the rest in the final two furlong was stunning. So good that you have to think that it was too good to be true. The scary thing about it was that he had so much left in the tank crossing the line. The margin was going to continue increasing if needed. The only thing stopping a huge figure on the horse is that you are mistrusting previously trusted measures. Frankly, if you are crabbing that performance you will be waiting a long long time to see something that will impress you. The last two furlongs are two of the best Ive seen from any horse.

If the race was run again, I cant see what O'Donoghue, or Murtagh could do any different to get him closer, except hope that Harbinger didnt reproduce the form.

HigginsJ · 07-09-2010 10:57PM

The performance was too good to be true. Harbinger was probably the best horse on the day but dont see how one performance can make him great.

Beat Age of Aquarius over 1m5f, Duncan and Manifest over 1m4f by about 2 lengths each. That is solid form but nothing spectacular.

Profound Beauty beat Age of Aquarius by nearly same distance over a furlong further next time out. Duncan was well beaten in a Group 3 at Goodwood and Manifest looked good in the Yorkshire Cup but blew up in the Gold Cup so the form of his 1st 3 wins is full of holes.

The King George was a great performance by a good horse.

Morgans · 07-09-2010 11:23PM

HigginsJ wrote: »

The performance was too good to be true. Harbinger was probably the best horse on the day but dont see how one performance can make him great.

Beat Age of Aquarius over 1m5f, Duncan and Manifest over 1m4f by about 2 lengths each. That is solid form but nothing spectacular.

Profound Beauty beat Age of Aquarius by nearly same distance over a furlong further next time out. Duncan was well beaten in a Group 3 at Goodwood and Manifest looked good in the Yorkshire Cup but blew up in the Gold Cup so the form of his 1st 3 wins is full of holes.

The King George was a great performance by a good horse.

You dont think that Harbinger was improving and was trained to peak for the race. The idea that it was his first group 1 is seen as a negative by some. Completely misses the point. The owners are Ascot linked and its no coincidence that his campaign was planned the way it was. I'm not sure that those knocking Harbinger understand ratings. This is a good article showing that its pretty near impossible to rate the King George less than high 130s.

http://www.racingbase.com/category/Racing-News/Harbinger--Just-how-good-is-the-King-George-winner-201007300046/

The funny thing is pointing out all the holes in the form (regardless of how well he won or how the horse was improving at a rate of knots) that yet forgetting to add in Cape Blanco, who went on to win the Irish Champion by 5 1/2l. Some would say that this cherry picking of form lacks objectivity. I dont think the Ascot Gold Cup form means anything to Harbinger, yet you point out Manifest's failing but not Age of Aquarius good run. Just assume that people can read the form for themselves and I think leaving out pieces of form like that you are weakening your argument. If you were to judge Azamour by the horses he beat he comes out nowhere near great. (Pick out the worse races run by Norse Dancer, Ace, and Diamond Green and its clearly not great) If you are going to damn horses like Harbinger, at least try to use the same criteria against those you acclaim. Azamour rated 128 btw.

Initially, this thread was about Cape Blanco being underrated, yet somehow it came out that the idea was Harbinger was overrated. Unfortunately, their form is linked and its pretty much impossible to hold both those views simultaneously. The better Cape Blanco does, the better Harbinger's form works out. He was beaten utterly senseless by him.

HigginsJ · 08-09-2010 08:34AM

Im not saying Harbinger is not a good horse and he definately was on an upward curve, but to call a horse great after one Group One win is crazy. Look at Workforce. Clearly everything went right for Harbinger on the day but he is not a "great" regardless of what the ratings say. Well that's my opinion (which is really what horse racing is all about).

Azamour is a triple Group 1 winner over 3 distances. I wouldnt call him great but that sort of achievement for me would rank him ahead of Harbinger. The sad thing is, for those who want to proclaim Harbinger as a great, they only have one piece of evidence against Group 1 horses.

Yes Cape Blanco gave the form a boost but it was over 2f shorter on much different ground.

I was blown away by Harbinger on the day and its very possible he could have been great but needed at least 1 more race to confirm his status.

"one swallow doesn't make a summer"

Morgans · 08-09-2010 10:43AM

HigginsJ wrote: »

Im not saying Harbinger is not a good horse and he definately was on an upward curve, but to call a horse great after one Group One win is crazy. Look at Workforce. Clearly everything went right for Harbinger on the day but he is not a "great" regardless of what the ratings say. Well that's my opinion (which is really what horse racing is all about).

Azamour is a triple Group 1 winner over 3 distances. I wouldnt call him great but that sort of achievement for me would rank him ahead of Harbinger. The sad thing is, for those who want to proclaim Harbinger as a great, they only have one piece of evidence against Group 1 horses.

Yes Cape Blanco gave the form a boost but it was over 2f shorter on much different ground.

I was blown away by Harbinger on the day and its very possible he could have been great but needed at least 1 more race to confirm his status.

"one swallow doesn't make a summer"

The problem is that people who are proclaiming Harbinger great are doing so using tried and tested methods. Methods that are used to compare horses performances for the past 100 years. Methods that have been refined when proven wrong. It is a shame that he didnt get a chance to follow up his KG run. However, those supporting Harbinger are those you are viewing the performance objectively. (I hope you read the article I linked earlier). Those who are crabbing the horse are coming out with very subjective statements like he only ran in one group 1, the trainer didnt think he'd win, and one swallow doesnt make a summer.

Give me one performance over 140 ahead of ten performances in the mid 125s. You can admire horses for their versatility and their consistency, but if you are looking for the best that a thoroughbred racehorse can perform on a track, you have to look to the very few that have reached above and beyond 140. They are the true greats.

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