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Banking scare threads and the truth.

  • 08-09-2010 12:39PM
    #1
    Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 32,387 Mod ✭✭✭✭


    A few people like to start "scare threads" of the type "My mate works in <insert bank> and he told me to get my money out / everyones taking their money out / the manager told me we will collapse later today" etc.

    Arm yourself with the truth:
    http://www.moneyguideireland.com/irish-deposits-guarantee-after-september-2010.html

    Cliff notes:

    Up to 100K in most/all major banks is guaranteed, by the state, indefinitely.

    Past 100K its guaranteed to the end of 2010 and will probably be extended.


    Our banking sector, like everyone elses, is in rag order but lets not deal in fanciful nonsense. Stick to the facts.

    DeV.


«1

Comments

  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 25,775 ✭✭✭✭kfallon


    My mate works in a sperm bank (she's a receptionist) and she says to get down there straight away and make a deposit cos they just got in October's edition of "Hairy Gusset" and she reckons the centre 'spread' is well worth a 'pedal' over.....she reckons it's that good it made her come over all lezzie when she saw it!!!


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 26,061 ✭✭✭✭Terry


    Feck off with your facts, will ye.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,086 ✭✭✭Nijmegen


    Agreed, though I'm not sure anyone 'likes' to do it - depends on what your life savings amounts to, and where it is sitting, I'm not sure people like the idea of a run or similar, government promises or no.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 12,456 ✭✭✭✭Mr Benevolent


    DeVore wrote: »
    Our banking sector, like everyone elses, is in rag order but lets not deal in fanciful nonsense. Stick to the facts.

    DeV.

    Worried about your investments eh? Don't blame you really, I saw the deleted thread. Anyway, it's unlikely there'll be any sort of run on Irish banks.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,553 ✭✭✭Banned Account


    I'd like to see a law passed that makes it fair game to shoot and rob anyone who partakes in a run.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,501 ✭✭✭✭Slydice


    DeVore wrote: »
    Arm yourself with the truth:
    http://www.moneyguideireland.com/irish-deposits-guarantee-after-september-2010.html

    Cliff notes:

    Up to 100K in most/all major banks is guaranteed, by the state, indefinitely.

    Past 100K its guaranteed to the end of 2010 and will probably be extended.
    Excellent, Thanks for the advice Dev.

    I'd been a bit worried looking at the 100 page discussion on politics.ie about a run by something to do with the bond market on Ireland itself.

    The discussion seems to be something to do with Irelands chances of defaulting on Irelands debt.

    So, then, the first question that comes to mind... that you might have an idea on...

    If Ireland goes bust and defaults... then our money in Irish Banks still safe? As in... is our money in Irish banks guaranteed safe if Ireland defaults?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,553 ✭✭✭Banned Account


    Slydice wrote: »
    Excellent, Thanks for the advice Dev.

    I'd been a bit worried looking at the 100 page discussion on politics.ie about a run by something to do with the bond market on Ireland itself.

    The discussion seems to be something to do with Irelands chances of defaulting on Irelands debt.

    So, then, the first question that comes to mind... that you might have an idea on...

    If Ireland goes bust and defaults... then our money in Irish Banks still safe? As in... is our money in Irish banks guaranteed safe if Ireland defaults?


    Why would Ireland defaulting on its debt (which won't happen because they'll just head to the stabilisation fund) have anything to do with your deposit account?


  • Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 32,387 Mod ✭✭✭✭DeVore


    Countries dont go bust. They go to the IMF with cap in hand and get ridden for $20 a go, but they dont go bust as such.

    I'm not an expert, but then neither are the other armchair pundits so I figured some hard facts would be handy.

    Oh and 100 page threads debating such things are what you get when you dont moderate the loonies.

    DeV.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 88,968 ✭✭✭✭mike65


    Don't worry about defaulting, the EU/ECB will simply not allow it to happen for reasons that have nothing to do with Ireland


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 24,488 ✭✭✭✭Sleepy


    Possibly... If Ireland defaults on it's debts we'll be in trouble as a nation and wouldn't be able to access the level of borrowing required to pay out any of our guarantees should the banks default.

    However, Ireland defaulting is extremely unlikely. The ECB have mechanisms in place (or nearly in place) such as the lending granted to Greece earlier this year which roughly mean that if the markets won't lend to us any more (not entirely unthinkable with such a useless government in place), the ECB will act as a lender of last resort as long as we agree to a set list of austerity measures etc.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 27,252 ✭✭✭✭stovelid


    I took that thread at face value and now have my life savings down my underpants. :(


  • Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 32,387 Mod ✭✭✭✭DeVore


    The bond markets are one of the markets I was talking about before in the previous piece I wrote about it being the wrong time for violent protest. Bonds are like an IOU from a country... China has been buying fracking billions of the US bonds, hence you wont see any stringent criticism of the Chinese by Obama any time soon. They basically own the states at this point.

    DeV.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,501 ✭✭✭✭Slydice


    So like, do you know if we're in danger of defaulting?

    I was reading that international websites have us having more than a 25% chance of defaulting (higher than iraq but lower than iceland)?

    Plus back to my big worry, if Ireland Defaults and we have to go cap in hand to the imf like you say...

    will our money in Irish banks be safe if Ireland defaults and we have to do a IMF/EU/Whatever deal?


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Music Moderators, Politics Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 22,360 CMod ✭✭✭✭Dravokivich


    DeVore wrote: »
    China has been buying fracking billions of the US bonds, hence you wont see any stringent criticism of the Chinese by Obama any time soon. They basically own the states at this point.

    DeV.

    They're like the Chelsea and Man City of International Politics ey?

    Can't beat'em, buy'em!

    :pac:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,933 ✭✭✭Logical Fallacy


    Dearest Dev,

    please stop damping the flames of ignornace.

    Churs.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,975 ✭✭✭✭28064212


    DeVore wrote: »
    Oh and 100 page threads debating such things are what you get when you dont moderate the loonies.

    DeV.
    That's a terrible thing to call the boards community

    aliens ate my brain

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  • Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 32,387 Mod ✭✭✭✭DeVore


    As for the "useless government"... while I personally agree they are a shower of retarded monkeys, they have done a couple of things right. guaranteeing the banks right off the bat was smart. It really hacked off the Brits because they played the game to the spirit of the law while the irish kinda stole a march on everyone.

    We also enacted SOME kind of austerity measures early on... ok they werent exactly hard hitting and they will be worse this time round but thats what the markets want to see, they dont care if you are in trouble, they want to see that you (the country) are going to take some actions to rectify the situation. Greece didnt, Ireland didnt really either but we made lots of noise about doing so and a big deal out of what was done.

    Markets operate on the perception of reality, rather then reality itself. Even if they KNOW themselves that that perception is false. Example, using shares:

    You offer me a share for 100 euros. I know the company that the share is in, is a dog with fleas, but I also know that the general perception is that its great and the share will sell for 120 euros easily. So, I buy the share (despite my factually accurate knowledge that the company is ****), because I know the perception is that its good, (false).

    Yes, it hurts lots of peoples brains.

    DeV.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,553 ✭✭✭Banned Account


    Ironically, the States owns China now - they have to keep buying the bonds or they'll devalue their own national reserve.


  • Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 32,387 Mod ✭✭✭✭DeVore


    Slydice wrote: »
    So like, do you know if we're in danger of defaulting?

    I was reading that international websites have us having more than a 25% chance of defaulting (higher than iraq but lower than iceland)?

    Plus back to my big worry, if Ireland Defaults and we have to go cap in hand to the imf like you say...

    will our money in Irish banks be safe if Ireland defaults and we have to do a IMF/EU/Whatever deal?
    I'm not an expert but the country would remain a distinct entity with autonomous control so yes, the deposits would be guaranteed imho, but as I said, this is all hypothetical.

    Realistically, the worst case is that the IMF come in and carve up the public sector and hike taxes.

    DeV.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,501 ✭✭✭✭Slydice


    DeVore wrote: »
    Example, using shares:

    You offer me a share for 100 euros. I know the company that the share is in, is a dog with fleas, but I also know that the general perception is that its great and the share will sell for 120 euros easily. So, I buy the share (despite my factually accurate knowledge that the company is ****), because I know the perception is that its good, (false).

    Well that does sound reassuring.

    but

    What happens to our bank accounts if we default though?

    As in, what happens if the person knows the company is **** and the perception is bad so the person doesn't buy ... and then... the company reneges on it's money?

    I've not seen anyone say that the guarantee means anything if we default or that our money is safe if Ireland defaults


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,723 ✭✭✭Cheap Thrills!


    It's at time like this I'm glad I'm a pauper!

    Ya can't lose what you haven't got! :pac:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,501 ✭✭✭✭Slydice


    DeVore wrote: »
    I'm not an expert but the country would remain a distinct entity with autonomous control so yes, the deposits would be guaranteed imho, but as I said, this is all hypothetical.

    Realistically, the worst case is that the IMF come in and carve up the public sector and hike taxes.

    DeV.

    Seriously though, I wasn't wondering about the public sector and tax hikes, I can look at greece to see that.

    This thread was created because of "banking scare threads" which I presume is due to a thread about a bank runs that I noticed disapprearing earlier. I get that. That's fine.

    I don't think people worry as much about tax hikes and public sector pay when talking about banks though

    I think they worry about their bank savings.

    So that's why I would really like to know what would happen to our bank savings if Ireland defaults.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 11,554 ✭✭✭✭alwaysadub


    I'm off to watch It's A Wonderful Life to prepare myself just in case :pac:

    Not that i have any money in the bank in the first place..


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,615 ✭✭✭Hail 2 Da Thief


    I'm not at all worried about the safety of my savings being stored in an Irish bank!












    Because my cash is safely stored in British banks! :P


  • Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 32,387 Mod ✭✭✭✭DeVore


    Ireland Inc defaulting on its governmental borrowings is HIGHLY UNLIKELY to be allowed to happen. If it did, it would mean the cost of borrowing for the government would rocket and we'd have to "live within our means".

    However, the Bank of Ireland / AIB / Etc are not national banks, they are effectively privately owned businesses and as such wouldnt be immediately affected. The knock on effects might not be pleasant (the guarantee would probably be seen as unsustainable for a start) but again, this wouldnt be allowed to crash the banking system.

    So, if Ireland Inc defaulted (very unlikely to be allowed happen) there would be no direct effect on banking here. There may be ramifications but everything along this chain is in the "highly unlikely to be allowed happen" category.

    DeV.


  • Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 32,387 Mod ✭✭✭✭DeVore


    I'm not at all worried about the safety of my savings being stored in an Irish bank!












    Because my cash is safely stored in British banks! :P
    We've never had a bank collapse, even Anglo is being bailed out (wrongly imho). In the UK they have had Northern Rock, RBS, Barings etc etc.


    Good luck. :)

    DeV.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 977 ✭✭✭newman10


    Sleepy wrote: »
    Possibly... If Ireland defaults on it's debts we'll be in trouble as a nation and wouldn't be able to access the level of borrowing required to pay out any of our guarantees should the banks default.

    However, Ireland defaulting is extremely unlikely. The ECB have mechanisms in place (or nearly in place) such as the lending granted to Greece earlier this year which roughly mean that if the markets won't lend to us any more (not entirely unthinkable with such a useless government in place), the ECB will act as a lender of last resort as long as we agree to a set list of austerity measures etc.

    Are they not due in the next budget :(


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 3,095 ✭✭✭ANXIOUS


    How many people and how much would you have to withdraw to get a run on the banks? I reckon if you went into a busy bank in Dublin city center and withdrew €5000 the daily limit, then start screaming why won't you let me withdraw more money. It would get the rest if the people freaked out and they would try withdraw more money.


  • Moderators, Education Moderators, Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 35,165 Mod ✭✭✭✭AlmightyCushion


    Your money's in Bill's house and Fred's house.


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  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,501 ✭✭✭✭Slydice


    DeVore wrote: »
    everything along this chain is in the "highly unlikely to be allowed happen" category.

    hasn't everything that has happened in the last 3 years been like that?

    this new set of banking discussion is revolving around Ireland possibly defaulting from what I can tell.

    people want to know their savings are safe and with the banking collapses... the government stepped in with the guarantee and so people knew their savings were safe

    but now, it's about Ireland Inc Defaulting, so again, people care about their savings... so answering that savings and default question would at least help people feel like they know what is going on with their savings

    but I'm not seeing that being answered.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Music Moderators, Politics Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 22,360 CMod ✭✭✭✭Dravokivich


    Your money's in Bill's house and Fred's house.

    Hey Bill, what are you doing with MY MONEY!


  • Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 32,387 Mod ✭✭✭✭DeVore


    Slydice, before they were saying "highly unlikely to happen". I used very specific language there as you can see :)

    the phrase "too big to fail" doesnt just apply to banks.

    DeV.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 2,215 ✭✭✭Mrmoe


    Do people not see that such logic and sense are destroying our native tinfoil hat industry. Aughinish Alumina is one of the most importsnt industries here contributing millions to the economy. Imagine if we all stop wearing tinfoil hats all these jobs will go not to mention the knock on effect of losing service jobs such as tin foil hat insurance and tinfoil hat repair.:pac:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 1,866 ✭✭✭irishconvert


    DeVore wrote: »
    Up to 100K in most/all major banks is guaranteed, by the state, indefinitely..

    What if the state goes bankrupt? David McWilliams seems to think it will.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,501 ✭✭✭✭Slydice


    DeVore wrote: »
    the phrase "too big to fail" doesnt just apply to banks.
    I know, and I presume that is why some discussions I have been reading have been saying that the ECB is now buying Irish bonds from something called the secondary market (as in... I think that means not Ireland or the banks Ireland uses to sell it's bonds)

    yet at the same time, our yield is still going up... this is what has me confused

    woops, I didn't mean to go off topic for yet another time

    Do you know if our savings are safe if Ireland Defaults or Not?


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 20,919 ✭✭✭✭Gummy Panda


    Slydice wrote: »
    I know, and I presume that is why some discussions I have been reading have been saying that the ECB is now buying Irish bonds from something called the secondary market (as in... I think that means not Ireland or the banks Ireland uses to sell it's bonds)

    yet at the same time, our yield is still going up... this is what has me confused

    woops, I didn't mean to go off topic for yet another time

    Do you know if our savings are safe if Ireland Defaults or Not?

    Our yields went down as soon as people thought the ECB were buying bonds. They dropped .15


  • Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 32,387 Mod ✭✭✭✭DeVore


    Slyd, I have tried to answer that question one page back... but you are asking a hypothetical on hypothetical question. I'm also not qualified to answer it any better then to say "nah, I doubt there would be that sort of fall out".

    What this thread is about (and we've drifted off topic) is that someone "social arsonists" find it amusing to start threads like as described in my first post.


    All I'm doing here is pointing out that there are strong guarantees in place and there are clear facts people are wilfully ignoring in their histrionics.

    DeV.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 10,501 ✭✭✭✭Slydice


    I get ya. It's just fairly scarey in how it's operating.

    We're relying on a guarantee from a bunch of lads who got us here in the first place.

    We know the guarantee is a lie because Ireland can't afford to pay it off if the **** hits the fan

    The same lines are being used now as before... highly unlikely, soft landing, turned a corner, stop talking us down and go commit suicide, highly unlike to happen etc...

    when in fact

    Nobody seems to have a ****ing clue what's going on or what will happen.

    The last people who listened to that have seen a bunch of Irish drift into negative equity and unemployment.

    I myself have (small) savings (as you might have guessed) and would like a clue this time.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭R0ot


    DeV strikes your banking hysteria posting wrecking for "lol pwnd" damage!
    
    :pac:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 585 ✭✭✭MrDarcy


    Slydice wrote: »
    hasn't everything that has happened in the last 3 years been like that?

    this new set of banking discussion is revolving around Ireland possibly defaulting from what I can tell.

    people want to know their savings are safe and with the banking collapses... the government stepped in with the guarantee and so people knew their savings were safe

    but now, it's about Ireland Inc Defaulting, so again, people care about their savings... so answering that savings and default question would at least help people feel like they know what is going on with their savings

    but I'm not seeing that being answered.

    The natural question to ask if someone offers you a guarantee, is: "what are you guaranteeing me with???"

    OK, the state are "guaranteeing" depositors and bondholders. But with what??? With cash 300 billlion Euro of cash??? Nope. With 300 billion Euro of borrowed money??? Nope. This is what the markets are seeing, it's all very well to say, "relax it's guaranteed, we are guaranteeing all these depositors and bondholders", when the reality is that guarantee's have to be credibly backed up, or they fail to be a guarantee. It's like a homeless man going guarantor on a mortgage for you.

    It really is a throwback to the Celtic Tger when we can walk around with our big swinging dicks shouting about our big guarantee, when in reality if it was ever to be called in, it wouldn't be a guarantee, it would be an embarrassing joke.


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  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,553 ✭✭✭Banned Account


    Slydice wrote: »
    I get ya. It's just fairly scarey in how it's operating.

    We're relying on a guarantee from a bunch of lads who got us here in the first place.

    We know the guarantee is a lie because Ireland can't afford to pay it off if the **** hits the fan

    The same lines are being used now as before... highly unlikely, soft landing, turned a corner, stop talking us down and go commit suicide, highly unlike to happen etc...

    when in fact

    Nobody seems to have a ****ing clue what's going on or what will happen.

    The last people who listened to that have seen a bunch of Irish drift into negative equity and unemployment.

    I myself have (small) savings (as you might have guessed) and would like a clue this time.

    If all the banks fail and the Irish Government goes bankrupt and cannot cover the deposit guarantee then your money will be gone if you have not withdrawn it.

    If that happens you will also be homeless, have no electricity and be starving very soon afterwards. If you are not gang raped by roving delinquent skanger gangs you will die of disease or malnutrition.

    So there you have it.

    Hope you're happy you pushed me to it now.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,129 ✭✭✭R P McMurphy


    As I see it the difficulty down the line for Ireland could be an attack on the corporate tax rate. If we go into a Greek bailout situation, we will be expected to offer up some things in return. Austerity measures being one but more importantly for the big EU powerhouses could be their pet hate.

    I don't think we would be allowed to default, not out of any love for us but the fact that european (mainly German) banks are owed billions by their rogue counterparts in Ireland. They lent recklessly to reckless banks and therefore if we default they are in big trouble as well


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,112 ✭✭✭Blowfish


    I'm no economist, but I don't see what the whole fuss is about the Irish deposit guarantee is. It seems pretty irrelevant considering deposits of up to 100k are guaranteed by the EU.


  • Business & Finance Moderators, Entertainment Moderators Posts: 32,387 Mod ✭✭✭✭DeVore


    Were guaranteed by the trillion euros Merkel has made available to governments. That was a clever move by a politician that has done more for us than any of her Irish counterparts. I said it would quell investor speculation and it did.

    DeV.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 13,116 ✭✭✭✭bnt


    If you want the exact details on the govt. bank guarantee scheme, get the PDF document on this page. It includes the following:
    Under the Scheme, the Minister for Finance guarantees under the laws of Ireland certain types of liabilities (“covered liabilities”) of certain participating named institutions (“covered institutions”) for the period 30 September 2008 to 29 September 2010 inclusive. A list of covered institutions as at the date of these FAQs is set out under Q 11 below.
    If a covered institution defaults in respect of a covered liability, the Minister of Finance will pay to the creditor, on demand, an amount equal to the unpaid covered liabilities.
    ...
    What is a “covered liability”?
    Covered liabilities are listed in the Scheme as:
    (a) all retail and corporate deposits (to the extent not covered by existing deposit protection schemes in Ireland or any other jurisdiction);
    ...
    What is a “deposit” for the purposes of the Scheme?
    For the purposes of the Scheme, a deposit includes any credit balance with a covered institution that results from funds left in any account or normal banking transactions and which the credit institution is obliged to repay, and any debt evidenced by a certificate issued by a credit institution, and includes money in share accounts with building societies.
    Therefore, cash deposits (fixed rate and tracker) and certificates of deposit are both covered by the guarantee.
    ...
    The document says that the current scheme expires at the end of this month, but that's out of date: it's been extended to the end of the year. Note also:
    The Minister reiterated that this announcement does not affect retail deposits of up to €100,000 as these deposits continue to be guaranteed under the ordinary Deposit Guarantee Scheme and that Scheme is not time limited.
    So there's no reason for a bank run. Deposit Guarantees schemes have been set up specifically to prevent this. There was a partial bank run in Greece earlier this year: not out of fear that the banks would fail, but that Greece might be kicked out of the Eurozone, they'd go back to the Drachma, and their deposits would be decimated by inflation. So lots of Euros left Greece for Italy etc. :eek:

    You are the type of what the age is searching for, and what it is afraid it has found. I am so glad that you have never done anything, never carved a statue, or painted a picture, or produced anything outside of yourself! Life has been your art. You have set yourself to music. Your days are your sonnets.

    ―Oscar Wilde predicting Social Media, in The Picture of Dorian Gray



  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,112 ✭✭✭Blowfish


    As a side note though, personally I'll be moving my savings away from Irish banks, guarantee or no guarantee. I'd rather give a solvent bank the use of my money rather than one which has proven to be, quite frankly, incompetent.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 6,551 ✭✭✭SeaFields


    Matt Cooper show now is dedicated to the developments on Anglo today. He has some good analysts on at the mo - shane ross, brian lucey. Prob get a better idea on Irish banking from this show than anywhere else.**


    ** excluding this thread of course :cool:


  • Moderators, Music Moderators Posts: 35,946 Mod ✭✭✭✭dr.bollocko


    Stickied. Lets try and combat misinformation for a changewhile.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,473 ✭✭✭R0ot


    Stickied. Lets try and combat misinformation for a changewhile.

    This is not in the spirit of AH,

    TO FEEDBACK! :pac:


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,555 ✭✭✭✭AckwelFoley


    Yes, this thread is not welcomed in AH.

    It contravenes the bull**** and rabble rabble code of pitchforkyness

    Its clear, tom must have taken a bribe from the government.


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