Will Sinn Fein or RSF see a rise in support?

The After Hours Troll · 21-10-2010 03:01PM #1

With FF on its death bed, FG beside them and Labour afraid to address policies, Sinn Fein are set for a rise in seats in the next election and may even form the next government.

Their broke away group Republican Sinn Fein, may also attract more voters if they have more candidates and get into the public eye.

This can only be good for the country and it's current state.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Sinn_F%C3%A9in

Wolfe Tone · 21-10-2010 03:04PM

Considering RSF alleged involvement with dissidents I doubt it.

Besides RSF would not take their seats if they won any.

oscarBravo · 21-10-2010 03:06PM

I doubt it. Do they have any realistic policy proposals?

ballsymchugh · 21-10-2010 03:09PM

RSF have only had one elected representative in the country in the recent past that i remember, and he was a county councillor in longford. he didn't get elected on party policy at all, was just a well known man in the area who represented the locality well.
they wouldn't have a hope in a general election.

The After Hours Troll · 21-10-2010 03:18PM

MUSSOLINI wrote: »

Besides RSF would not take their seats if they won any.

Why is that do you know?

In Westminister I can understand but why the Republic, doesn't that defeat the purpose? They aren't fully recognised so alot of their candidates stand as independants.

The After Hours Troll · 21-10-2010 03:18PM

ballsymchugh wrote: »

RSF have only had one elected representative in the country in the recent past that i remember, and he was a county councillor in longford. he didn't get elected on party policy at all, was just a well known man in the area who represented the locality well.
they wouldn't have a hope in a general election.

Yes but they do have independants standing for them in all but name.

The After Hours Troll · 21-10-2010 03:20PM

oscarBravo wrote: »

I doubt it. Do they have any realistic policy proposals?

Sinn Fein or RSF?

On just Sinn Fein for a second I can see them making massive gains if they are well organised.

Is there a possibility of Gerry standing in the South? I heard whispers about that.

Lenny Lovett · 21-10-2010 03:21PM

The After Hours Troll wrote: »

With FF on its death bed, FG beside them and Labour afraid to address policies, Sinn Fein are set for a rise in seats in the next election and may even form the next government.

I applaud your optimism. It's a quality Ireland is a bit bereft of just now.;)
As for Sinn Fein forming the next Government. I'd say they have a similar chance of doing so as one Mr Brian Cowen has. However, if I was forced to choose between Mr Adams and Mr Cowen for Taoiseach Mr Adams would win hands down every time.

ballsymchugh · 21-10-2010 03:21PM

The After Hours Troll wrote: »

Why is that do you know?

In Westminister I can understand but why the Republic, doesn't that defeat the purpose? They aren't fully recognised so alot of their candidates stand as independants.

the Government here is for the 26 counties, while RSF will only recognise the 32 county republic. whoever took over from Ruairdhi O'Bradaigh (if he's even retired, think he did last year) probably sees themselves as president of a 32 county state.

OhNoYouDidn't · 21-10-2010 03:21PM

The After Hours Troll wrote: »

Why is that do you know?

In Westminister I can understand but why the Republic, doesn't that defeat the purpose? They aren't fully recognised so alot of their candidates stand as independants.

They split from PSF on the decision to recognise the 26 county state and stand for the Dail. They are fundamentally dogmatic Republicans - the CIRA Army Council sees itself as the legitimate Irish government and the Dail as an imposter.

You may see an increase in support for dissidents in the north, but that will be more 32CSM (RIRA) as they are more active there. RSF are very much more a Dublin and Louth/South Armagh thing.

Also O'Bradaigh retired recently, I have no idea what their new President will prioritise, but I doubt it will be southern elections.

Bottle_of_Smoke · 21-10-2010 03:22PM

The After Hours Troll wrote: »

Why is that do you know?

In Westminister I can understand but why the Republic, doesn't that defeat the purpose? They aren't fully recognised so alot of their candidates stand as independants.

They only exist because sinn fein changed policy in 1986 and took their seats in Leinster house.

They see the republic as being just as illegitimate as westminister/stormont.

Provisional Sinn Fein may increase their seats. Paddy Power seems to think so anyway http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/irish-government?ev_oc_grp_ids=91434

Wolfe Tone · 21-10-2010 03:22PM

They recognize the republic declared in 1916. Not what we have today. They have not "sold out" (so they would say) like SF have.

They have not rejected violence, considered the political wing of the CIRA also. They have denied that though.

Bottle_of_Smoke · 21-10-2010 03:25PM

The After Hours Troll wrote: »

Sinn Fein or RSF?

Is there a possibility of Gerry standing in the South? I heard whispers about that.

Not a chance he's Mr West Belfast.

OhNoYouDidn't wrote:

but that will be more 32CSM (RIRA)

Is that really fair? 32csm have denied they are linked to the RIRA and RIRA have said they have no political wing.

OhNoYouDidn't · 21-10-2010 03:39PM

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

Is that really fair? 32csm have denied they are linked to the RIRA and RIRA have said they have no political wing.

Maybe it is, maybe it isn't. What I meant was RSF aren't really a 6 county outfit in the way the 32CSM are. They are less likely to capitalise on the PSF walkaways

Lenny Lovett · 21-10-2010 03:42PM

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

Not a chance he's Mr West Belfast.

You never know. Gurry has a wee house in Co. Donegal and is well liked around there so he'd be in with a good shout up that direction I'd say.

oscarBravo · 21-10-2010 03:49PM

The After Hours Troll wrote: »

Sinn Fein or RSF?

Either.

On just Sinn Fein for a second I can see them making massive gains if they are well organised.

Meh. I think people will be voting pragmatically come the next election, and they're going to want someone with concrete proposals on how we're going to get the country out of the pile of poo it's in. They may gain votes, but I suspect they'll also lose a chunk of the vote they got last time from people who voted for them as an anti-establishment protest.

MUSSOLINI wrote: »

They recognize the republic declared in 1916. Not what we have today.

I'd love to know how many of them have passports and driving licences issued by the republic we have today.

Mr.Micro · 21-10-2010 03:54PM

Lenny Lovett wrote: »

You never know. Gurry has a wee house in Co. Donegal and is well liked around there so he'd be in with a good shout up that direction I'd say.

Gee what is not to like about Gerry Adams.........fun loving, funny, easy going, democratic, upright, born again non supporter of terrorism......Maybe I should just opt for the first 3.

KeithAFC · 21-10-2010 04:45PM

Mr.Micro wrote: »

Gee what is not to like about Gerry Adams.........fun loving, funny, easy going, democratic, upright, born again non supporter of terrorism......Maybe I should just opt for the first 3.

A wolf in sheeps clothing.

Mr.Micro · 21-10-2010 04:57PM

KeithAFC wrote: »

A wolf in sheeps clothing.

:D

Coillte_Bhoy · 21-10-2010 06:25PM

The After Hours Troll wrote: »

With FF on its death bed, FG beside them and Labour afraid to address policies, Sinn Fein are set for a rise in seats in the next election and may even form the next government.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Sinn_F%C3%A9in

I think you may need to ahve a wee look at the opinion polls. If SF cant make serious ground in these times, what future ahve they?

FlutterinBantam · 21-10-2010 07:10PM

Rightly or wrongly most voters in the South strongly believe there is a distinct whiff of cordite from the SF candidates and their activists.

Also people seem genuinely to be of the opinion that given the levers of power they would overrun the place with wasters and left wing idealists who's idea of a well run country is to strip the assets off everyone who worked so hard to get them, and give the proceeds to feckless unemployable gombeens who never did or will do a productive days work in their lives.

That would appear to be the popular perception,rightly or wrongly.

Wolfe Tone · 21-10-2010 07:16PM

FlutterinBantam wrote: »

Rightly or wrongly most voters in the South strongly believe there is a distinct whiff of cordite from the SF candidates and their activists.

Also people seem genuinely to be of the opinion that given the levers of power they would overrun the place with wasters and left wing idealists who's idea of a well run country is to strip the assets off everyone who worked so hard to get them, and give the proceeds to feckless unemployable gombeens who never did or will do a productive days work in their lives.

That would appear to be the popular perception,rightly or wrongly.

Yeah, thats right, fcuk all those unemployed people, despicable people!

Oh, wait.

dlofnep · 22-10-2010 10:46PM

FlutterinBantam wrote: »

Also people seem genuinely to be of the opinion that given the levers of power they would overrun the place with wasters and left wing idealists who's idea of a well run country is to strip the assets off everyone who worked so hard to get them, and give the proceeds to feckless unemployable gombeens who never did or will do a productive days work in their lives.

Yeah, because every person who is unemployed at the moment must be a waster, right? As for "left wing idealists" - We live in a centre-left country, which has strong support for social-democracy across the political spectrum.

As for SF - Sinn Féin will certainly make gains in the next elections. Maybe 2 or 3 seats I'd imagine. It's hard to say at the moment.

oscarBravo wrote: »

Either. Meh. I think people will be voting pragmatically come the next election, and they're going to want someone with concrete proposals on how we're going to get the country out of the pile of poo it's in. They may gain votes, but I suspect they'll also lose a chunk of the vote they got last time from people who voted for them as an anti-establishment protest.

Sinn Féin has concrete proposals. You may not agree with their proposals, but they consistently release policy papers and budget proposals all the time. One thing they cannot be accused of is sitting on the sidelines without offering alternative papers.

flutered · 23-10-2010 07:24PM

consider the amount of airtime they get on rte compared to dff.

paky · 25-10-2010 02:08PM

I'd say Sinn Fein have a good opportunity in the next election. Even David McWilliams prophecised this recession in his programme The Big Bite a couple of years ago and said ''dont be surprised if you see a party like Sinn Fein coming to power during the recession!!''

anyhow i dont think the EU, the UK or this current governemnt would like to see the likes of Sinn Fein coming to power with there links to Hamas and Basque Separatists. im sure there'll be a big propaganda campaign against them coming up to the next election and it wont be just Fianna Fail behind it

flutered · 25-10-2010 02:24PM

paky wrote: »

I'd say Sinn Fein have a good opportunity in the next election. Even David McWilliams prophecised this recession in his programme The Big Bite a couple of years ago and said ''dont be surprised if you see a party like Sinn Fein coming to power during the recession!!''

anyhow i dont think the EU, the UK or this current governemnt would like to see the likes of Sinn Fein coming to power with there links to Hamas and Basque Separatists. im sure there'll be a big propaganda campaign against them coming up to the next election and it wont be just Fianna Fail behind it

there is always a wolf cry against sinn fein, it is possible it has cryed too often

Bottle_of_Smoke · 25-10-2010 03:06PM

Funnily enough had Sinn Fein been in power the last 12 years we'd probably be in a much better position than we are now. We wouldn't have been as wealthy 5 years ago but not much use that is now.

I'd say labour are doing the most thinking on this. The more I think about it the more a left-wing alliance looks possible

Things are gonna get worse before the next election. I can only see FF getting a minority of votes. FG will probably do well but with their insistence on sticking with an unpopular leader will undoubtedly go against them**

Should labour and Sinn Fein see a big increase they could probably get independents to support them. Would be even more likely had the Greens not gone in with FF this term.

Not sure if I want it. Really seems as if the public sector and welfare bill needs to be dealt with, and I seriously doubt Sinn Fein want any more sell-out accusations thrown their way.

On the other hand if they lasted a term, or even 3/4 years it might be the end of civil-war dominated politics.

**Just an observation, not saying Enda Kenny is the wrong man, just stating the fact that he is unpopular. Please do not reply outling reasons why he would make a good leader, that is irrelevent to the point I was making.

FTA69 · 25-10-2010 06:46PM

OhNoYouDidn't wrote: »

They split from PSF on the decision to recognise the 26 county state and stand for the Dail. They are fundamentally dogmatic Republicans - the CIRA Army Council sees itself as the legitimate Irish government and the Dail as an imposter.

You may see an increase in support for dissidents in the north, but that will be more 32CSM (RIRA) as they are more active there. RSF are very much more a Dublin and Louth/South Armagh thing.

Also O'Bradaigh retired recently, I have no idea what their new President will prioritise, but I doubt it will be southern elections.

The Continuitys have no real support in Louth or South Armagh, Lurgan in north Armagh would be their main area of support in the north.

FTA69 · 25-10-2010 06:52PM

dlofnep wrote: »

As for "left wing idealists" - We live in a centre-left country, which has strong support for social-democracy across the political spectrum.

No we don't, we live in a very conservative country whose main political cleavage is one between two centre-right parties and which is based around a war fought 90 years ago.

If Sinn Féin come out of the next election with six or seven seats they'll be doing very well, but it still won't do anything to break the stagnation of that party in the south.

blinding · 25-10-2010 07:18PM

KeithAFC wrote: »

A wolf in sheeps clothing.

These days Gerry Adams is a sheep in sheeps clothing.

If he has any sheep balls (or even ram balls) he should run for the presidency of Ireland. I don't think he will though. Too many awkward questions about the brudder.

In any case its time for him to write his memoirs and let Sinn Féin have an open contest for a new leader. Then and only then will we see what Sinn Féin of the future has to offer (No one'e indespensable, .e.g. Gerry or Martin)

Liam Byrne · 25-10-2010 07:26PM

flutered wrote: »

there is always a wolf cry against sinn fein, it is possible it has cryed too often

It's not exactly a wolf cry when they refuse to condemn murder.

dlofnep · 25-10-2010 07:47PM

Liam Byrne wrote: »

It's not exactly a wolf cry when they refuse to condemn murder.

And who exactly was convicted for murder that they refuse to condemn?

KeithAFC · 25-10-2010 08:19PM

dlofnep wrote: »

And who exactly was convicted for murder that they refuse to condemn?

Jean mcconville. Enough said. The guy doesn't even have the bottle to admit that he joined the IRA, never mind the operations he took part in.

PomBear · 25-10-2010 08:28PM

KeithAFC wrote: »

Jean mcconville. Enough said. The guy doesn't even have the bottle to admit that he joined the IRA, never mind the operations he took part in.

Who was convicted for what happened to Jean McConville?

Also do you think if she was informing to the IRA about the Brits, do you think the Brits would have a problem killing her? didn't think so.

dlofnep · 25-10-2010 08:31PM

KeithAFC wrote: »

Jean mcconville. Enough said.

Adams had nothing to do with her murder, despite the nonsense written about the issue. She was killed by the IRA for being a British spy.

KeithAFC wrote: »

The guy doesn't even have the bottle to admit that he joined the IRA, never mind the operations he took part in.

And you have proof of this I assume?

KeithAFC · 25-10-2010 08:54PM

dlofnep wrote: »

Adams had nothing to do with her murder, despite the nonsense written about the issue. She was killed by the IRA for being a British spy.

And you have proof of this I assume?

Its well known he was involved in operations like Bloody friday being a good example. We will never forgive or forget.

Wolfe Tone · 25-10-2010 08:58PM

I see no reason why he wouldn't admit it if he was a member of the IRA.

KeithAFC · 25-10-2010 09:01PM

MUSSOLINI wrote: »

I see no reason why he wouldn't admit it if he was a member of the IRA.

Legal reasons.

Liam Byrne · 25-10-2010 09:07PM

dlofnep wrote: »

And who exactly was convicted for murder that they refuse to condemn?

Since when do you have to know who murdered someone in order to condemn the action ?

Bottle_of_Smoke · 25-10-2010 09:16PM

On that topic Brendan Hughes tapes he made before he died are being played in a documentary tomorrow night on RTE 1. 22:15

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/tape-accusing-sf-boss-gerry-adams-of-death-squad-role-to-air-on-tv-14986126.html

Personally I see little reason for Hughes to make this up but plenty for Adams to deny

KeithAFC · 25-10-2010 09:20PM

Bottle_of_Smoke wrote: »

On that topic Brendan Hughes tapes he made before he died are being played in a documentary tomorrow night on RTE 1. 22:15

http://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/local-national/northern-ireland/tape-accusing-sf-boss-gerry-adams-of-death-squad-role-to-air-on-tv-14986126.html

Personally I see little reason for Hughes to make this up but plenty for Adams to deny

Will be interesting.

Its true.

Bottle_of_Smoke · 25-10-2010 09:21PM

MUSSOLINI wrote: »

I see no reason why he wouldn't admit it if he was a member of the IRA.

He's denied it for so long how could he? He'd inevitably be expected to admit which operations he took part in.

It is generally thought he took part in Bloody Friday and McConville's death.

If he admits to IRA membership he'll effectively be admitting to them. The latter could be claimed was for spying but the victims of Bloody Friday were civillians and there's no way he could continue as a politician

jackbenimble · 25-10-2010 09:24PM

PomBear wrote: »

Who was convicted for what happened to Jean McConville?

Also do you think if she was informing to the IRA about the Brits, do you think the Brits would have a problem killing her? didn't think so.

I suspect they'd have arrested her and put her on trial. If she was found guilty she'd have been placed in a humane jail. Why didn't The IRA do that?

FlutterinBantam · 25-10-2010 09:28PM

When their representative in Kerry was mentioned in gun running activities,and collects those who shot a Garda officer doing his lawful duty,and were in the act of blatant robbery, I think that about sums them up.

After that display I would have no interest in the psuedo-policies they may concoct,and wouldn't be comfortable with them within an asses roar of the levers of power.

They and their apologists need to take cogniscance of the ordinary taxpayer who isn't fooled by flowery empty rhetoric, emblem wearing, kerb painting, symbolic bunting and general outdated outmoded artificial 'Brits out' attitudes.

Not fooled at all lads.

PomBear · 25-10-2010 09:29PM

jackbenimble wrote: »

I suspect they'd have arrested her and put her on trial. If she was found guilty she'd have been placed in a humane jail. Why didn't The IRA do that?

because they were so humane, that's why 66% of their killings during the troubles were civilians

PomBear · 25-10-2010 09:30PM

FlutterinBantam wrote: »

When their representative in Kerry was mentioned in gun running activities,and collects those who shot a Garda officer doing his lawful duty,and were in the act of blatant robbery, I think that about sums them up.

After that display I would have no interest in the psuedo-policies they may concoct,and wouldn't be comfortable with them within an asses roar of the levers of power.

They and their apologists need to take cogniscance of the ordinary taxpayer who isn't fooled by flowery empty rhetoric, emblem wearing, kerb painting, symbolic bunting and general outdated outmoded artificial 'Brits out' attitudes.

Not fooled at all lads.

You'll be hard finding a shinner who doesn't condemn those shootings

geespot · 25-10-2010 09:31PM

nobody who has anything to say about what happened in the north can be believed because they all have there own agenda. including anybody making a documentry. as for keith (the beano) afc considering all the innocent people in the world whom the brits have killed never mind ireland you can put your micky in your exhaust and go and f... yourself

jackbenimble · 25-10-2010 09:31PM

MUSSOLINI wrote: »

I see no reason why he wouldn't admit it if he was a member of the IRA.

Oh, I can think of a few reasons:

Firstly, he might be worried that a future UK Government might put him on trial despite any agreements made. If he had publicly admitted to being in The IRA it would seal his fate. There are precedents for this, such as Pinochet - he too had a guaranteed immunity. In fact, The Belfast Agreement wouldn't save him this fate - only guarantee an early release.

Secondly, if he admits to being a member of a terrorist group, guilty of countless atrocities, he might find his international movements curtailed at some point in the future.

KeithAFC · 25-10-2010 09:34PM

geespot wrote: »

nobody who has anything to say about what happened in the north can be believed because they all have there own agenda. including anybody making a documentry. as for keith (the beano) afc considering all the innocent people in the world whom the brits have killed never mind ireland you can put your micky in your exhaust and go and f... yourself

Eh? We aren't talking about the British Army.

FlutterinBantam · 25-10-2010 09:36PM

PomBear wrote: »

You'll be hard finding a shinner who doesn't condemn those shootings

Not a lot of use condemning them, if your elected reps collect and drive away with those convicted from prison:rolleyes:

geespot · 25-10-2010 09:38PM

yes but i wont have some brit trying to give irish men a history lesson especially one who get all his facts from the toilet paper that is the sun newspaper

Will Sinn Fein or RSF see a rise in support?

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