July 2011 Boards forecast contest

M.T. Cranium · 26-06-2011 03:17PM #1

(1) Predict the mean temp (IMT) -- the 1961-90 average was 15.0 but now we also have worked out the 1971-2000 average of 15.5 and the 1981-2010 average of 15.2 (thanks to DE for those figures).

(2) Predict the highest temperature at any met.ie station

(3) Predict the lowest temperature at any met.ie station

(4) Predict the average rainfall at eleven stations in met.ie summary (%)

(5) Predict the average sunshine at six stations in met.ie summary (%)

(6) BONUS -- KS mentioned that the weekend of 9-10 July is to feature the King Scallop Festival at Valentia. So I will follow his suggestion and ask for the total rainfall (mms) and sunshine hours for that event using Valentia for the data. Remember, it's a two-day total. 16 hours (therefore a total of 32) would be the upper limit. You don't need to break down how much each day.

TEMPLATE you can use ...

IMT ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... PRC ..... SUN ..... (mms,hrs)

Good luck to all and note,

Post your entries by end of day Friday 1st of July or with slight penalty by end of day Sat 2 July. End of day is lenient (0300h next day) in case you want to discuss it at the local. Regular contestants can also use a one-time "late late" entry option on Sun 3 July with more substantial penalty.

pauldry · 27-06-2011 02:22PM

15.1 .....25.7..... 4.9 ..... 115 ..... 100 ..... (11,6)

h57xiucj2z946q · 27-06-2011 02:43PM

15.3 ..... 24.5 ..... 3.5 ..... 110 ..... 105 ..... (10,5)

H2UMrsRobinson · 27-06-2011 03:47PM

.

16.4 ..... 28.2..... 6.7..... 112%..... 94%..... (12mm,24hrs)

ch750536 · 27-06-2011 04:10PM

IMT ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... PRC ..... SUN ..... (mms,hrs)
15.6......27.9.......3.2.......73%........112%...

Bonus 26hrs 0mm

NIALL D · 27-06-2011 06:05PM

15.9 ..... 25.7 ..... 4.5 ..... 114 ..... 109 ..... (10,9)

200motels · 27-06-2011 11:32PM

15.4 ..... 31.2..... 6.9.... 139%..... 108%..... (6mm..27.5hrs)

Rebelbrowser · 28-06-2011 06:11AM

15.9 .....28.2..... 5.9 ..... 86 ..... 118 ..... (3,14)

fizzycyst · 28-06-2011 09:07AM

14.8 .....26.7..... 5.0 ..... 95 ..... 130 ..... (1,20)

John mac · 28-06-2011 11:10AM

14.6..... 26.7 .....4.7 .....093 ..... 120 ..... (6.0,10.0)

Strasser · 28-06-2011 11:39AM

15.6 .....27.5..... 3.5 ..... 85 ..... 105 ..... (15,3)

snowstreams · 29-06-2011 09:08AM

16.0..... 28.7 .....5.5 .....095 ..... 115 ..... (7,12.5)

talkabout · 29-06-2011 10:08AM

15.8..... 31.7 .....3.7 .....095 ..... 115 ..... (5,14)

thetonynator · 29-06-2011 11:43AM

15.4 ..... 26.0 ..... 3.3 ..... 125 ..... 110 ..... (3.5,5)

nacho libre · 29-06-2011 03:09PM

15.3 ..... 26.8 ..... 4.6 ..... 120 ..... 90 ..... (12, 4.5)

Harps · 29-06-2011 06:47PM

15.5 .....26.7..... 4.1 ..... 090 ..... 105..... (8,15)

dasa29 · 29-06-2011 07:16PM

14.5 .....27.0..... 2.5 ..... 110 ..... 110 ..... (3mm's, 20hr's)

amacachi · 30-06-2011 01:15AM

14.2 22.2 3.7 109% 88% 0, 24 hours.

homolumo · 30-06-2011 07:14AM

15.3 ..... 27.0 ..... 3.7 ..... 95 ..... 110 ..... (0,15)

mickger844posts · 30-06-2011 08:43AM

14.7 ..... 25.8 ..... 3.5 ..... 90 ..... 110 ..... (12mm,6hrs)

dacogawa · 30-06-2011 10:19AM

15.7 ..... 29.2 ..... 3.6 ..... 110 ..... 120 ..... (11mm,16hrs)

4Sheets · 30-06-2011 04:36PM

14.9 ..... 25.0 ..... 4.0 ..... 115 ..... 99 ..... (5,12)

Su Campu · 30-06-2011 08:25PM

15.6 ..... 28.1 ..... 4.5 ..... 130 ..... 85 ..... 2.8 mm, 8.5 hrs

okla · 30-06-2011 10:57PM

14.3.....27.5.....5.8.....92.....105.....(8mms.. 10hrs)

Tae laidir · 30-06-2011 11:44PM

14.6..... 24.2 ..... 4.0..... 139..... 88..... (9.2,5.5)

M.T. Cranium · 01-07-2011 03:09AM

15.2 ..... 29.2 ..... 3.7 ..... 100 ..... 100 ..... (2.0 mms, 17.5 hrs)

DOCARCH · 01-07-2011 05:15AM

15.9c..... 27.2c ..... 3.2c..... 92% ..... 103% ..... (4mm,8hrs)

Su Campu · 01-07-2011 07:05AM

A minimum of 5.2 °C was recorded at Dublin Airport this morning, 1st July.

jd · 01-07-2011 07:14AM

15.8 .....28.4..... 5.8 ..... 88 ..... 112 .....( 4,12)

nilhg · 01-07-2011 07:14AM

15.2 ..... 26.1 ..... 4.9 ..... 90 ..... 105 ..... (5,9.5)

jambofc · 01-07-2011 07:17AM

14.8....29.6....4.7....100%....110%.....9mm/4hrs

Lumi · 01-07-2011 08:36AM

15.4 ..... 26.3 ..... 4.7 ..... 98 ..... 119 ..... (12,10)

Joe Public · 01-07-2011 10:29AM

14.9 .....29.9..... 3.9 ..... 89 ..... 129 ..... (10,14)

01-07-2011 11:23AM

15.2 ..... 27.3 ..... 4 ..... 97 ..... 117 ..... (3 mms, 15 hrs)

Deep Easterly · 01-07-2011 12:03PM

15.0 ..... 27.3 ..... 3.6c ..... 130 ..... 100 ..... (12.3,14)

:cool:

Speak Now · 01-07-2011 12:33PM

14.1 ..... 26.5 ..... 3.1 ..... 80 ..... 110 ..... (6,14)

thetonynator · 01-07-2011 03:23PM

Su Campu wrote: »

A minimum of 5.2 °C was recorded at Dublin Airport this morning, 1st July.

jd wrote: »

15.8 .....28.4..... 5.8 ..... 88 ..... 112 .....( 4,12)

Hmm . .. reading the thread could come in handy . . .:P

rameire · 01-07-2011 06:32PM

15.3 ..... 27.8 ..... 4.6 ..... 95 ..... 104 ..... (4,10)

TheInquisitor · 01-07-2011 06:55PM

IMT 15.8 MAX 29 MIN 3 PRC 86 SUN 124 (0,28)

kindredspirit · 01-07-2011 07:55PM

Ooops! Almost forgot.

15.3 ..... 26.5 ..... 4.2 ..... 95 .....105 ...... (4,10)

waterways · 01-07-2011 08:38PM

14.6 ..... 23.9 ..... 4.1 ..... 110 ..... 113 ..... (1,8.9)

MiNdGaM3 · 01-07-2011 09:40PM

14.7 .... 26.9 ..... 2.1 ..... 100 ..... 105 ..... (6,18)

Redsunset · 02-07-2011 01:09AM

18.0 ..... 28.3 ..... 5.0 ..... 100 ..... 160 ..... (12,10)

M.T. Cranium · 02-07-2011 04:54AM

The on-time forecasts follow ... as a reminder, we decided once upon a time that entries made on time cannot be edited on the 2nd in exchange for penalty status. Meanwhile, anyone has until 0300 Sunday to get in under the usual late entry conditions, and most of you still have that one "late late" option available.

JULY FORECASTS
___________________

Forecaster ...... IMT ..... MAX ..... MIN ..... PRC ..... SUN ..... Bonus
_____________________________________________________________

redsunset ....... 18.0 ..... 28.3 ..... 5.0 ..... 100 ..... 160 ..... (12 , 10)
H2UMrsRobinson 16.4 ..... 28.2 ..... 6.7 ..... 112 ..... 094 ..... (12 , 24)
snowstreams ... 16.0 ..... 28.7 ..... 5.5 ..... 095 ..... 115 ..... (7 , 12.5)
NIALL D .......... 15.9 ..... 25.7 ..... 4.5 ..... 114 ..... 109 ..... (10 , 9)
Rebelbrowser ... 15.9 ..... 28.2 ..... 5.9 ..... 086 ..... 118 ..... (3 , 14)
DOCARCH ........ 15.9 ..... 27.2 ..... 3.2 ..... 092 ..... 103 ..... (4 , 8)
TheInquisitor ... 15.8 ..... 29.0 ..... 3.0 ..... 086 ..... 124 ..... (0 , 28)
jd .................. 15.8 ..... 28.4 ..... 5.8 ..... 088 ..... 112 ..... (4 , 12)
talkabout ........ 15.8 ..... 31.7 ..... 3.7 ..... 095 ..... 115 ..... (5 , 14)
Sponge Bob* ... 15.8 ..... 26.1 ..... 4.5 ..... 085 ..... 095 ...... (1 , 11)
dacogawa ....... 15.7 ..... 29.2 ..... 3.6 ..... 110 ..... 120 ..... (11 , 16)
danno* ........... 15.7 ..... 26.4 ..... 3.8 ..... 110 ..... 090 ..... (8 , 9.6)
ch750536 ........ 15.6 ..... 27.9 ..... 3.2 ..... 073 ..... 112 ..... (0 , 26)
Strasser .......... 15.6 ..... 27.5 ..... 3.5 ..... 085 ..... 105 ..... (15 , 3)
Su Campu ....... 15.6 ..... 28.1 ..... 4.5 ..... 130 ..... 085 ..... (2.8 , 8.5)
Harps ............. 15.5 ..... 26.7 ..... 4.1 ..... 090 ..... 105 ..... (8 , 15)
Fionagus ......... 15.4 ..... 26.3 ..... 4.7 ..... 098 ..... 119 ..... (12 , 10)
200motels ....... 15.4 ..... 31.2 ..... 6.9 ..... 139 ..... 108 ..... (6 , 27.5)
thetonynator ... 15.4 ..... 26.0 ..... 3.3 ..... 125 ..... 110 ..... (3.5 , 5)
nacho libre ...... 15.3 ..... 26.8 ..... 4.6 ..... 120 ..... 090 ..... (12 , 4.5)
kindredspirit ..... 15.3 ..... 26.5 ..... 4.2 ..... 095 ..... 105 ..... (4 , 10)

Con sensus ...... 15.3 ..... 27.0 ..... 4.1 ..... 095 .....105 ..... (6 , 12)

rameire ........... 15.3 ..... 27.8 ..... 4.6 ..... 095 ..... 104 ..... (4 , 10)
Damo2k .......... 15.3 ..... 24.5 ..... 3.5 ..... 110 ..... 105 ..... (10 , 5)
homolumo ....... 15.3 ..... 27.0 ..... 3.7 ..... 095 ..... 110 ..... (0 , 15)
hellboy99 ........ 15.2 ..... 27.3 ..... 4.0 ..... 097 ..... 117 ..... (3 , 15)
nilhg .............. 15.2 ..... 26.1 ..... 4.9 ..... 090 ..... 105 ..... (5 , 9.5)
M.T. Cranium ... 15.2 ..... 29.2 ..... 3.7 ..... 100 ..... 100 ..... (2.0 , 17.5)
pauldry ........... 15.1 ..... 25.7 ..... 4.9 ..... 115 ..... 100 ..... (11 , 6)
Deep Easterly .. 15.0 ..... 27.3 ..... 3.6 ..... 130 ..... 100 ..... (12.3 , 14)
Joe Public ....... 14.9 ..... 29.9 ..... 3.9 ..... 089 ..... 129 ..... (10 , 14)
4sheets .......... 14.9 ..... 25.0 ..... 4.0 ..... 115 ..... 099 ..... (5 , 12)
jambofc .......... 14.8 ..... 29.6 ..... 4.7 ..... 100 ..... 110 ..... (9 , 4)
fizzycyst ......... 14.8 ..... 26.7..... 5.0 ..... 095 ..... 130 ..... (1 , 20)
MiNdGaM3 ....... 14.7 ..... 26.9 ..... 2.1 ..... 100 ..... 105 ..... (6 , 18)
mickger844posts 14.7 ..... 25.8 ..... 3.5 ..... 090 ..... 110 ..... (12 , 6)
waterways ...... 14.6 ..... 23.9 ..... 4.1 ..... 110 ..... 113 ..... (1 , 8.9)
John mac ........ 14.6 ..... 26.7 ..... 4.7 ..... 093 ..... 120 ..... (6.0 , 10.0)
Tae laidir ........ 14.6 ..... 24.2 ..... 4.0 ..... 139 ..... 088 ..... (9.2 , 5.5)
dasa29 ........... 14.5 ..... 27.0 ..... 2.5 ..... 110 ..... 110 ..... (3 , 20)
okla ............... 14.3 ..... 27.5 ..... 5.8 ..... 092 ..... 105 ..... (8 , 10)
amacachi ........ 14.2 ..... 22.2 ..... 3.7 ..... 109 ..... 088 ..... (0 , 24)
Jerry Seinfeld ... 14.1 ..... 26.5 ..... 3.1 ..... 080 ..... 110 ..... (6 , 14)

Sponge Bob · 02-07-2011 12:12PM

Bugger

15.8 ..... 26.1 ..... 4.5 ..... 85 .....95 ...... (1,11)

Danno · 03-07-2011 01:22AM

(1) 15.7
(2) 26.4
(3) 3.8
(4) 110
(5) 90
(6) 8mm, 9.6hrs

M.T. Cranium · 03-07-2011 02:25AM

Now last call for "late late" regular entrants. Welcome by the way to our several new entrants. This is dead easy if you guess right.

I have edited the original table to add two late entries and set values for "Con sensus" which seem to indicate a slight tendency to picture the coming month as slightly on the dry, sunny side of average, with quite a widespread call for heat later on (I would imagine later on anyway).

SeaFields · 03-07-2011 07:25PM

MT, I'll use the late late entry if possible? Just back from week away. Haven't been online at all.

15.8 ..... 28.2 ..... 4.9 ..... 90 .....110 ..... (4 , 10)

M.T. Cranium · 03-07-2011 10:09PM

No problem, the option is open to 0300 tonight, then it's closed off. I will repost the table then. I will apply the same rules to your late late that I had once earlier this year, for your entry bonus max is 6 and penalty is applied over 50 (late is over 60). Just to review that, we apply a 10% penalty to scores above these values but you can't go lower than the thresh-hold, so for example 52 would go to 50, same as 55 (for late late).

Also please note (all entrants) you can only use the late late option once a year and only if you've played all but two or more. A quick look through the table tells me that Beasterly is the only contestant who could now use this option (to 0300).

M.T. Cranium · 08-07-2011 02:09PM

Report on the first seven days of July ...

IMT stands at 14.1 C

rainfall although variable across the eleven stations has averaged 144% (today may boost this further)

sunshine also quite variable, dull in southwest, but average was 106%

M.T. Cranium · 11-07-2011 02:41AM

The Valentia weekend bonus question looks like

rainfall trace (zero)

sunshine 10.6 hours

From a quick check of the entries, if I take errors of mm plus (hrs/2) the four that will score highest are likely to be:

Sponge Bob (1, 11) error 1.2

Waterways (1, 8.9) error 1.8

Homolumo (0, 15) error 2.2

Su Campu (2.8, 8.5) error 3.9

most of the zero rainfall forecasts had a lot more sunshine, and most of the cloudy forecasts had too much rain.

Anyway, these data are preliminary and I will check them later in the week. No update means the figures are confirmed.

July 2011 Boards forecast contest

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