FF 15/8 For Most Seats In General Election

Teclo · 20-09-2011 05:25PM #1

This seems to go against perceived wisdom. At only 10% in the latest opinion poll and with people talking about their extinction, Paddy Power have Fianna Fáil at only 15/8 to win the most seats at the next general election. Fine Gael are at 4/7 and Labour at 13/2. Sinn Féin, who some believe are about to overtake Fianna Fáil are 50/1.

What does Paddy Power know that the rest of us don't?

Foghladh · 20-09-2011 05:30PM

Teclo wrote: »

What does Paddy Power know that the rest of us don't?

That the average voter has a very short memory it would appear

Dirk Gently · 20-09-2011 05:44PM

Personally I reckon FF will be back in after 2 terms out of power. I have no confidence in my fellow voters to keep them out and I have no confidence in lab/fg/sf not to form a coalition with them, possibly as early as the next election if the numbers fit. They're in hibernation mode right now, not shutdown.

Mr.Micro · 20-09-2011 05:53PM

Teclo wrote: »

This seems to go against perceived wisdom. At only 10% in the latest opinion poll and with people talking about their extinction, Paddy Power have Fianna Fáil at only 15/8 to win the most seats at the next general election. Fine Gael are at 4/7 and Labour at 13/2. Sinn Féin, who some believe are about to overtake Fianna Fáil are 50/1.

What does Paddy Power know that the rest of us don't?

How stupid punters are. Take their money now for the fools willing to wager, and a fool and his money are easily parted....that is what Paddy Power knows.

Colonel Sanders · 20-09-2011 05:59PM

Teclo wrote: »

This seems to go against perceived wisdom. At only 10% in the latest opinion poll and with people talking about their extinction, Paddy Power have Fianna Fáil at only 15/8 to win the most seats at the next general election. Fine Gael are at 4/7 and Labour at 13/2. Sinn Féin, who some believe are about to overtake Fianna Fáil are 50/1.

What does Paddy Power know that the rest of us don't?

Stripping out the bookies profit margin implied probabilities of getting most seats:

FG 55.9%
FF 30.6%
Lab 11.7%
SF 1.7%
Green 0.1%

anymore · 20-09-2011 06:03PM

Foghladh wrote: »

That the average voter has a very short memory it would appear

Cork south central returned the same number of FF tds in the last election as in the one before !

Nodin · 20-09-2011 06:23PM

Teclo wrote: »

This seems to go against perceived wisdom. At only 10% in the latest opinion poll and with people talking about their extinction, Paddy Power have Fianna Fáil at only 15/8 to win the most seats at the next general election. Fine Gael are at 4/7 and Labour at 13/2. Sinn Féin, who some believe are about to overtake Fianna Fáil are 50/1.

What does Paddy Power know that the rest of us don't?

They're presuming that FG/Lab will either cause or be forced to preside over a total enormous cock up/disaster drawn out over a full term, and this will cause a return to old patterns. They're presuming that SF are still too "out there" for a majority.

Personally I think it would take two full terms of disaster to cause such an event, and even then.....

Chucky the tree · 20-09-2011 06:48PM

Ireland is still made up mainly of a lot of middle class people. The majority of Irisih people have never wanted a far left party like Sinn Feinn in charge, it's why Labour have had to move a lot more to the centre to win votes. Sinn Fein can do the same, but they'll risk losing there core left vote while still being fairly transfer unfriendly due to their history. FF bankrupted the country and has ruined it for decades and they still managed to get nearly double the first preference votes as SF did this year.

Liam Byrne · 20-09-2011 08:19PM

Chucky the tree wrote: »

Ireland is still made up mainly of a lot of middle class people. The majority of Irisih people have never wanted a far left party like Sinn Feinn in charge, it's why Labour have had to move a lot more to the centre to win votes. Sinn Fein can do the same, but they'll risk losing there core left vote while still being fairly transfer unfriendly due to their history. FF bankrupted the country and has ruined it for decades and they still managed to get nearly double the first preference votes as SF did this year.

If there was actually a far left party that didn't have an unpalatable association, it may well get more votes, but I wouldn't go listing "far left" as the reason SF don't get votes.

That said, we don't need a "far left" party; we need a decent middle ground party - something Ireland is sadly lacking.

Chucky the tree · 20-09-2011 10:37PM

Liam Byrne wrote: »

If there was actually a far left party that didn't have an unpalatable association, it may well get more votes, but I wouldn't go listing "far left" as the reason SF don't get votes.

That said, we don't need a "far left" party; we need a decent middle ground party - something Ireland is sadly lacking.

What unpalatable association does PBP/Workers party have? Ireland lacks a number of political parties. Would like to see a party like the Liberal democrats.

Foghladh · 20-09-2011 11:00PM

I always figured Fianna Fáil were our Lib Dems

We do have a rather limited spread of parties really. I've always been surprised that we haven't had a far-right party spring up somewhere. Not that I'm advocating for one mind, but the furthest to the right that we have is Fine Gael. We seem rather timid in our voting agenda. If you leave out the smaller far-left groups there isn't really a very wide gulf separating our political choices

hmmm · 20-09-2011 11:02PM

We've been here before. FF make a mess of the country, FG & Labour restore order, the government collapses and FF returns to power.

The only difference this time is that FF have fallen so low in terms of support, that there is a risk that they don't recover at all. I wish it were true, but they still have the support "on the ground".

If FF do collapse, the next election could lead to a fascinating choice between FG (with maybe FF as partners) versus a Labour/SF coalition. I don't give the latter any chance in the next decade, we could be looking at FG in power for a long time.

View · 20-09-2011 11:50PM

Teclo wrote: »

What does Paddy Power know that the rest of us don't?

In very many constituencies, particularly rural and/or 3-seaters, FG & FF have historically been the only "properly" organised political parties. Labour has struggled to capture seats in these and where it did, it was in many ways a personal vote for the politician concerned. SF has made some inroads in some of these - most notably border ones - in recent years but as with Labour they face an uphill battle to do so.

If FG and Labour suffer a lost of support from being in government, FF will presumably be the default party for many voters to switch to when voting, particularly if they can kick-start even some of the party machine they had in place locally in previous elections.

Presumably, with the decision to sit out the Presidential election, MM is intent on taking a leaf out of EK's book and will focus on building the party up. With the next local and European elections being the far enough out, he has plenty of time to do so while letting the support for the current government parties gradually seep away. If they pull it off (and that's an "if"), it could look like a very impressive come-back when the next major elections are over.

goose2005 · 21-09-2011 11:39AM

FF supporters are ageing - by the 2021 election a lot of them will be dead.

mikemac · 21-09-2011 12:32PM

Foghladh wrote: »

I've always been surprised that we haven't had a far-right party spring up somewhere.

Immigration Control Platform

Ran in the Tony Gregory by election and got over two per cent of the votes
Ok it's not a lot but it's almost as much as the Green Party candidate

They ran three candidates in 2007 election, best performer was Ted Neville in Cork with 1.4 per cent. Not much but he beat three independents

Sleepy · 22-09-2011 09:45AM

Probably what many of us know: much of Fianna Fail's vote didn't vote against them in the most recent election, they merely abstained from voting.

Once Martin and his cronies attend enough funerals, fill enough pot-holes and convince the average cumman members that the party still represents them, the party faithful will vote for Fianna Fail candidates again in droves.

thebman · 23-09-2011 02:32AM

Sleepy wrote: »

Probably what many of us know: much of Fianna Fail's vote didn't vote against them in the most recent election, they merely abstained from voting.

Once Martin and his cronies attend enough funerals, fill enough pot-holes and convince the average cumman members that the party still represents them, the party faithful will vote for Fianna Fail candidates again in droves.

I don't think so TBH, I think most younger people don't believe they owe politicians anything.

Sure some will vote FF because of the above logic but you only looking at a few percent of the country. TBH if a politician turned up at my parents funeral, I'd be disgusted given they don't actually know my parents in any personal way.

imme · 24-09-2011 07:43AM

Nodin wrote: »

They're presuming that SF are still too "out there" for a majority.

do you ever perform in public venues?:D

seriously though, this a bookies we're talking about. They're in the business of not losing money, they're the ones who always leaves the races in the merc.

Fianna Fail wasn't destroyed in the election, so there is a chance that they could make a comeback, and with a bigger FG versus split of seats FF could end up getting a bigger number of seats than either FG or Labour.

For example FF could win 44 seats, FG and Labour each win 41 seats, SF wins 25 seats, Greens 2 and 12 Ind's. With the CC being reelected automatically that gives us 166.
It's possible, just highly unlikely.;)

raymon · 24-09-2011 09:04AM

Because of treason , lies , theft, forgery, incompetence, perjury , tax evasion, corruption, fraud, and arrogance FF has become the most hated party in Ireland . Talk of them getting more than 3% to 6% of the vote in the next election is not realistic.

Chucky the tree · 24-09-2011 01:51PM

raymon wrote: »

Because of treason , lies , theft, forgery, incompetence, perjury , tax evasion, corruption, fraud, and arrogance FF has become the most hated party in Ireland . Talk of them getting more than 3% to 6% of the vote in the next election is not realistic.

Care to explain how they got 17% in the last one?

Sleepy · 24-09-2011 01:58PM

thebman wrote: »

I don't think so TBH, I think most younger people don't believe they owe politicians anything.

Sure some will vote FF because of the above logic but you only looking at a few percent of the country. TBH if a politician turned up at my parents funeral, I'd be disgusted given they don't actually know my parents in any personal way.

When did young people ever swing an election in Ireland?

The over 65's haven't been touched in our "austerity" measures whilst the private pension pots of those still working have been raided, taxes on income have increased, incomes have fallen (or ceased to exist for many) etc. etc. etc.

It'll be the over 40's that return Fianna Fail to a position of relevancy in Irish politics.

thebman · 24-09-2011 02:16PM

Sleepy wrote: »

When did young people ever swing an election in Ireland?

The over 65's haven't been touched in our "austerity" measures whilst the private pension pots of those still working have been raided, taxes on income have increased, incomes have fallen (or ceased to exist for many) etc. etc. etc.

It'll be the over 40's that return Fianna Fail to a position of relevancy in Irish politics.

Even that support base has been massively harmed though. That section of the FF vote requires them to be in power with an influential candidate who usually passed the torch on to their replacement.

FF aren't in power but more importantly, the people from FF that were in power that those voters were loyal to (the actual candidates) aren't running anymore and didn't in the last election except a few like O'Dea etc...

So you have O'Dea and the like, unknown candidates and relatively unknown candidates that are elected now who can't do anything as they are in opposition. It all sends the message to this voter that FF is not the party it was and don't have the power to look after this vote the way they expect them to which along with the media telling everyone it is the case will mean little bounce back. Also you have to factor in FG and Labour doing the same job FF did to support this grouping to get their votes and win them over from FF.

The last opinion poll had them at 10% which even assuming a few don't want to admit they are FFers or whatever still leaves them without a significant amount of the vote they had at the last election. A certain percentage of the vote in the last election was pure loyalty to the people themselves in FF that the older voters knew personally who actually believed it was almost solely the International crisis that caused Ireland to fall and thought these people were being hard done by so threw them sympathy votes which they won't get next time IMO. Also factoring in that the new government takes over and almost immediately we see a rise in Ireland's outlook, the timing of coming to power for FG/Labour was perfect TBH.

Then you have the fact that the party has almost no funds and has no ability to get funds and appears in public to be divided as to whether the party should even exist as FF anymore.

I think the outlook is a lot poorer than many people think having spoken to some people that are hardcore FFers and well over 40 and considered to be still with FF and aren't anymore.

raymon · 24-09-2011 02:24PM

Chucky the tree wrote: »

Care to explain how they got 17% in the last one?

Care to explain 10% in a recent poll,

The FF party is on a downward spiral

M Martin is a terrible leader, who lodged a developer donation to his wifes bank account

Willie lied under oath.

O cuiv wanted a FF name change

The party is a laughing stock

6% max

Sleepy · 24-09-2011 03:02PM

thebman wrote: »

Also you have to factor in FG and Labour doing the same job FF did to support this grouping to get their votes and win them over from FF.

How many of these people voted FG / Labour though? From my experience, the majority of them simply abstained from voting. Members of my extended family who were 'Party Faithful' (to the extent that their children ended up working in the party's HQ) would be the sort who couldn't comprehend voting for "the blue shirts" :rolleyes: or any other party for that matter.

I believe we'll see more of the same from Fianna Fail. Young blood will emerge through the Ográ from the same, tired, political dynasties and idiots like those I mentioned in my extended family will vote for them once they've done the obligatory kissing up to the local Cummáns.

Maybe I'm being overly pessimistic. I hope I am but looking at our political history in this country I don't think I am.

Chucky the tree · 24-09-2011 04:53PM

raymon wrote: »

Care to explain 10% in a recent poll,

The FF party is on a downward spiral

M Martin is a terrible leader, who lodged a developer donation to his wifes bank account

Willie lied under oath.

O cuiv wanted a FF name change

The party is a laughing stock

6% max

So you can't? All of this was well known before the last election and they still got 17%.

raymon · 24-09-2011 07:47PM

Chucky the tree wrote: »

So you can't? All of this was well known before the last election and they still got 17%.

I can't explain why 17% voted for these traitors.

I can't explain why 10% now support them.

Are you one of the 3 to 6 % that will vote for them ....... maybe you can explain the genius behind your decision..... please go ahead and tell us why FF are so great.

Chucky the tree · 26-09-2011 02:57PM

raymon wrote: »

I can't explain why 17% voted for these traitors.

I can't explain why 10% now support them.

Are you one of the 3 to 6 % that will vote for them ....... maybe you can explain the genius behind your decision..... please go ahead and tell us why FF are so great.

I'm not the one claiming thet'll get 6% max and talk of them getting more in unrealistic. Seems you can't back up your claims at all though.

raymon · 26-09-2011 03:18PM

Chucky the tree wrote: »

I'm not the one claiming thet'll get 6% max and talk of them getting more in unrealistic. Seems you can't back up your claims at all though.

You are asking me to explain why some people voted for the FF soldiers of treason. I am saying I don't know . Some are old and have frail minds I suppose. In any case I don't know why. Are you a ffer , maybe you know better. You tell us

In any case support is dwindling 41% to 17% to 10% to ??% (plot these on a graph)

All I am saying is that FF have not hit bottom and by the time of the next election they will be in the 3 to 6 % range.

Remember mahon report will be out by then

They should disband after apologizing. O Cuiv was right , the FF brand is too damaged

Teclo · 15-12-2011 03:11PM

Most seats after next GE

Fine Gael - evens
Fianna Fail - evens
Labour - 12/1
Sinn Fein - 16/1

Beginnings of the return of the old order or good money after bad?

FF 15/8 For Most Seats In General Election

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