Horses to follow, National Hunt 2011 - 2012

Montjeu · 07-10-2011 01:55PM #1

Hurdle

The hurdles seem to be full of talent this year but the one I like most is Nicky Henderson's Grandouet . I'm not 100% sure he will be staying over hurdles but he did show some very nice form last season. His 15l loss to Sam Winner doesn't bode well for the form books but since then he has really improved. His race at Cheltenham may have come a little soon but he put up a gallant effort when coming third in the Supreme Novices. He was extremely unlucky at Aintree next time when he was brought down at the last when he looked the winner, and would have turned over form with Zarkandar. His 9l win at Punchestown was very impressive despite his main competition being the boiled over mare, Unaccompanied, from Dermot Weld's yard. If Henderson can keep this horse in good shape he will definitely be an interesting one to look out for.

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Chase

The horse who I am particularly looking forward to following this year is Mossey Joe. This lightly raced 8 year old has all the traits to become a very nice chaser who should be capable of winning a group 1 this season. His only poor effort over his 9 race career came last December, when he finished a 12 length 7th to Mourad over conditions that didn't suit. However, when he was sent back out on better ground he put up an impressive display at Punchestown where he came 2nd in a Group 2 hurdle, with many people feeling that Carberry left him with too much to do and it was one that got away. Two easy wins followed when he was sent back chasing with Barry Geraghty on board only for him to be very unlucky last time out when he sprawled upon landing when he seemed to be cruising. He is a very keen sort (touch of a lunatic about him) but it is promising that he was ridden more prominently in his recent races, as opposed to his older style of being held up. He really does require some sort of good ground so I won't be holding my breath on seeing him turned out much before the year is out, but it will be interesting to see how he holds up in group 1 company chases between 2m 5f - 3m. The novice differences between Ireland and England have resulted in him being ineligible for the RSA but I would be confident he will be aimed towards Cheltenham.

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Would be interesting for everyone to pick a horse or two for the coming NH season to keep an eye out for.

*(The relevant links for the images have been inserted.)

wex_lad · 07-10-2011 03:56PM

Thats a decent little post lad, thanks for that and well done. I like the look of Grandouet myself alright. Will be interesting to see how the NH season pans out. I can't wait to see the big guns back.

Montjeu · 05-11-2011 02:51PM

Grandouet had that race at his mercy, thankfully the horse seems alright which is the main thing.

Colonel Sanders · 05-11-2011 05:05PM

Not Paul Nolan's biggest critic nor fan but I was really impressed with, Noble Prince in the Jewson. The form with Wishful Thinking is absolutely rock solid after his wins at Aintree & Punchestown (gave the Galway plate winner a lump of weight in winning a handicap off 159)

I think he could run a good race in a gold cup if stepped up in trip, and have had a few quid on at 150 on Betfair, although the Ryanair is probably Plan A.

ft9 · 05-11-2011 06:38PM

Did Grandouet have a bad fall?

Montjeu · 05-11-2011 06:46PM

He stepped at it too early and his front legs went right into the hurdle, Barry was able to walk him back so hopefully everything is sound. Had a ton of horse under him though, would have won at a canter.

ft9 · 05-11-2011 06:50PM

Once the horse and jockey walked back is the main thing, thats a set back now for Cheltenham next week

kryogen · 07-11-2011 05:25AM

Will he run in the arkle gents?

premierstone · 07-11-2011 03:06PM

kryogen wrote: »

Will he run in the arkle gents?

Who? Grandouet?

Very much doubt it, he has Champion Hurdler written all over him and the only one he should really be afraid of is Hurrican Fly a horse who has missed two of the last three festivals so I wouldnt be changing to fences just to avoid a horse you may never meet and also you could conceivably beat.

meriwether · 07-11-2011 04:43PM

premierstone wrote: »

Who? Grandouet?

Very much doubt it, he has Champion Hurdler written all over him and the only one he should really be afraid of is Hurrican Fly a horse who has missed two of the last three festivals so I wouldnt be changing to fences just to avoid a horse you may never meet and also you could conceivably beat.

You rank him as a better prospect than Spirit Son?

UrbanSea · 08-11-2011 12:40AM

I've been following Kakagh since the start of last season. With a rating of 124 I think he could be really well in for a handicap over 2 and a half

premierstone · 08-11-2011 10:12AM

meriwether wrote: »

You rank him as a better prospect than Spirit Son?

Personally I do , I know it wont be the majority opinion, I just think as a 4yo he has so much scope to improve and he did with every run last year, would have gained revenge over Zarakandar in Aintree only for been brought down imo.

I know Spirit Son is a very lightly raced 5yo and would appear to have plenty of scope for improvement aswell, I just have a personal preference for Grandouet at this point.

RichieLawlor · 08-11-2011 03:50PM

Hurricane Fly is the best NH horse in training. Grandouet nor Spirit Son will be bothering him

premierstone · 08-11-2011 04:47PM

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Hurricane Fly is the best NH horse in training. Grandouet nor Spirit Son will be bothering him

I agree in principle but you can not get away from the fact that he has missed 2 of the last 3 festivals, so nice to have a plan b as such!

NaiveMelodies · 08-11-2011 05:14PM

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Hurricane Fly is the best NH horse in training. Grandouet nor Spirit Son will be bothering him

Big time, if I had the patience for ante-post betting I'd have to fancy 7/4 for him, surely odds on on the day of the champion hurdle if he gets there.

premierstone · 08-11-2011 05:15PM

only1stevo wrote: »

Big time, if I had the patience for ante-post betting I'd have to fancy 7/4 for him, surely odds on on the day of the champion hurdle if he gets there.

You just anwered the question as to why he is 7/4

NaiveMelodies · 08-11-2011 05:20PM

premierstone wrote: »

You just anwered the question as to why he is 7/4

Ha too right!

1/2 for the Morgiana looks generous too!

Morgans · 08-11-2011 08:02PM

You need to have an awful lot in hand to be odds on at the festival. Hurricane Fly as good and all as he is, was pretty much all out to beat Peddlers Cross. Deservedly favourite, but by no means a certainty if the race was run tomorrow, and by no means a certainty for a race 4 months off. Plenty of time for a horse to impress in the english trials and challenge for favouritism. Id be surprised if he is odds on on the day.

Big bucks was 10/11 last year.

RichieLawlor · 08-11-2011 08:14PM

Morgans wrote: »

You need to have an awful lot in hand to be odds on at the festival. Hurricane Fly as good and all as he is, was pretty much all out to beat Peddlers Cross. Deservedly favourite, but by no means a certainty if the race was run tomorrow, and by no means a certainty for a race 4 months off. Plenty of time for a horse to impress in the english trials and challenge for favouritism. Id be surprised if he is odds on on the day.

Big bucks was 10/11 last year.

HF was all out to beat Peddlers after pulling hard the entire way round, While i agree he is unlikely to be odds on at cheltenham you are doing the horse a disservice if you think he didnt have more in hand at the festival than the bare winning margin

Morgans · 08-11-2011 08:20PM

He pulled hard, but no guarantee that he wont do it again. I think he is a smashing horse, but he isnt as far clear as the odds are suggesting at the moment. I'd expect him to have better horses than Peddlers Cross (not at his best as a 2m hurdler IMO) to face next March.

RichieLawlor · 08-11-2011 08:26PM

Morgans wrote: »

He pulled hard, but no guarantee that he wont do it again. I think he is a smashing horse, but he isnt as far clear as the odds are suggesting at the moment. I'd expect him to have better horses than Peddlers Cross (not at his best as a 2m hurdler IMO) to face next March.

Who do you think will come out as the biggesrt danger? Zarkandar maybe?

Morgans · 08-11-2011 08:29PM

Spirit Son would be the obvious one for me. I thought Sprinter Sacre was the one to take out of last years supreme, but the fact that Henderson thought Spirit Son was their first choice says a lot. The trainers ability to progress 2m hurdlers is second to none. 12/1 is tempting from a value point of view. I think he could end up better than Grandouet and even Binocular as well.

RichieLawlor · 08-11-2011 08:33PM

Morgans wrote: »

Spirit Son would be the obvious one for me. I thought Sprinter Sacre was the one to take out of last years supreme, but the fact that Henderson thought Spirit Son was their first choice says a lot. The trainers ability to progress 2m hurdlers is second to none. 12/1 is tempting from a value point of view. I think he could end up better than Grandouet and Binocular as well.

Agree with almost all of that. Id be afraid of the Binocular that turned up at cheltenham in 2010 though.

I asked about Zarkandar because he didnt look like the speed horse he is meant to be at Aintree?

Id steer clear of Grandouet for the moment, his confidence must be shot after falling again the other day.

UrbanSea · 08-11-2011 09:07PM

I'd steer clear of Binocular too.

The Binocular that turned up in 2010 has been nowhere as good since. I don't think he will be either,2 years after his win.

premierstone · 08-11-2011 11:20PM

RichieLawlor wrote: »

Agree with almost all of that. Id be afraid of the Binocular that turned up at cheltenham in 2010 though.

They never come back Richie

RichieLawlor · 08-11-2011 11:40PM

premierstone wrote: »

They never come back Richie

They never come back fron injury. Binocular hasnt been injured so your statement isnt relevant

premierstone · 09-11-2011 11:00AM

RichieLawlor wrote: »

They never come back fron injury. Binocular hasnt been injured so your statement isnt relevant

He has droped 7lbs in the official ratings and has only won one race of note in over 18 months, let it go!

BlueBaron · 10-11-2011 12:26PM

UrbanSea wrote: »

I've been following Kakagh since the start of last season. With a rating of 124 I think he could be really well in for a handicap over 2 and a half

Running today, he is a morale at 2/1 i think!

UrbanSea · 10-11-2011 12:32PM

BlueBaron wrote: »

Running today, he is a morale at 2/1 i think!

Too short for me today. I think he could run a nice one in a big field graded handicap in Ireland if he's around the 130 mark.

BlueBaron · 10-11-2011 12:34PM

UrbanSea wrote: »

Too short for me today. I think he could run a nice one in a big field graded handicap in Ireland if he's around the 130 mark.

Im a fav backer, i was actually expecting around 6/4 on this mornings prices, quite surprised to wake up finding 2/1, really fancy him

sting60 · 10-11-2011 12:46PM

Hebridean.He runs in a listed race at Dundalk tomorrow night but is very badly drawn.He at one stage was rated higher than any of the rest in the race.I think this horse could be a horse to watch over hurdles in big value handicaps ,maybe Christmas at Leopardstown.I would love this horse to be with Noel Meade or Willie Mullins as I think he is high class.If 16/1 or better I will be having a punt at Dundalk.

Goldcupfav · 10-11-2011 12:54PM

sting60 wrote: »

Hebridean.He runs in a listed race at Dundalk tomorrow night but is very badly drawn.He at one stage was rated higher than any of the rest in the race.I think this horse could be a horse to watch over hurdles in big value handicaps ,maybe Christmas at Leopardstown.I would love this horse to be with Noel Meade or Willie Mullins as I think he is high class.If 16/1 or better I will be having a punt at Dundalk.

God you really aint a fan of Jessica Harrington as a trainer ...

UrbanSea · 10-11-2011 02:08PM

BlueBaron wrote: »

Im a fav backer, i was actually expecting around 6/4 on this mornings prices, quite surprised to wake up finding 2/1, really fancy him

Good luck.

Horses to follow, National Hunt 2011 - 2012

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