Predicting the Next General Election

I agree that FF will be back in power at some point in the near future. Looking back, FG governments tent to get into power during our traditional generational economic meltdown or to put it another way, FG get in once FF f**k something up. Then, after a few years, people get angry with FG for whatever reason and start to think that the lads in FF aren't so bad after all and vote them back into power to start the cycle again.

Anyone that says FF are not longer part of the Irish political setting are clinging onto a fading hope. FF were hammered in the last election because people were angry with them but anger, like most extreme emotions, doesn't last long. Given time, the voters will cool off and if the economy settles down (or should that be up ), they will probably drift back into their old voting habits.

Personally, I am reaching a point where I question the veracity of voting at all. The great George Carlin was very vocal about his abstinence from the act because he seen it as a fallacy designed to give the plebs the illusion of freedom. When one considers that there are very influential public servants and wealthy persons who are not elected or answerable for their actions, it is difficult not to give merit to this belief.

In opposition historically FF has been very negative and continues to be so, in the present climate negative opposition for the purpose of trying to regain it's former "glory" only damages confidence and further adds to the doom and gloom that is so widespread though out our republic.

Fianna Fail will always be associated in the minds of younger people with failure, cronyism and self interest, in other words putting party before country.

Too many jaded personalties in F.F that have done more than well from Irish Politics over the last twenty years or more, Mr.Michael Martin and Mr. Willie O'Dea come to mind immediately.

Remedy : Dissolve the party and join other parties of their choice where they would be welcome and of course let some of them join the Independent benches.

The name Fianna Fail is not a mantra for hope but quite the opposite "despair". Best to consign this political party to history. We can have hope, optimism and confidence, but not by the negative campaigning that F.F is embarking on.

It's really impossible for me to predict how things will go.
If FG and Labour bring in tentative economic growth, then they should have enough to form a new government (although Labour will have reduced seats) whereas FF will have more seats than they do now and will tout themselves as a reformed party.
Far left will probably see a few extra seats but nothing special.

If the economy stays this bad or gets worse, I literally have no idea how it will pan out.

Yeah hah sorry about that...well lets just saw I was..erm not in the most sober of minds at the time and felt like making a point :pac:.(I#ve become what I hate hah hah)

amacachi wrote: »

Fianna Fail to lead a coalition government with either FG or Labour IMO. FG could always try some gerrymandering to keep the far left from gaining too much because as far as I can tell whether a constituency is 3, 4 or 5 seats they wouldn't get more than one person elected barring a "personality" so getting rid of the 3-seaters would keep most of the seats for FF, FG and Labour.


I do like the line about the lies from FG and Labour though, almost as though FF said something different. :pac:

Eh, actually no, it would benefit the major parties to get rid of the 5 seaters. For the main parties 3 seaters would be the preferred option.

PseudoFamous wrote: »

If a well organised socialist party manages to prop up, I could see them doing well in the next election. Assuming there won't be any major infighting amongst parties or new parties, Fine Gael will make a large loss of seats, Fianna Fail will make a considerable gain, Labour and Sinn Fein may make small gains.

I would love to see you explain why and how you think Labour may make small gains? The history of coalitons would suggest otherwise as would recent polls

I think people may be overhyping both the stupidity of the Irish people and the overpowering, all knowing, all seeing evil of the Fianna Fail party.

People might dislike Labour for lying, but they arent going to run back into the arms of Fianna "****ing" Fail. The brand name is toxic. When people look at their mortgage, they see Fianna Fail. When people look at the unemployment rate, they see Fianna Fail. When people see cutbacks and tax hikes, they see Fianna Fail. When people read about NAMA paying bankrupts 200,000 Euro a year, they see Fianna Fail. When people read about Croke Park forcing crazy payouts to failed civil servants, they see Fianna Fail. The likes of Sinn Fein are much more likely to benefit from a vote transfer of the escapist vote than Fianna Fail will.

And on the other hand, Fianna Fail are not some sort of horror movie villain. They dont simply get up unharmed and unhindered after being run over with a dump truck. Fianna Fail got decimated at the last election. Not beaten - decimated. Brian Cowen didnt even bother contesting his seat - he was the first Taoiseach in the history of the Republic to not even bother contesting his seat. And he did so because even his loyalist cohorts were telling him he didnt have a prayer. Vast amounts of known Fianna Fail brandnames were either turfed out or knew not to even bother and their organisation was demoralised and berated on doorsteps for their troubles.

Fianna Fail cannot and will not repair the immense damage done to them as a brand and an organisation in a few months or years. I know Fianna Fail threatened the Irish people that they would be back, but its an idle threat. Fianna Fail will be happy to maintain their seats at the next election. Even that would be celebrated as a huge success.