Advertisement
If you have a new account but are having problems posting or verifying your account, please email us on hello@boards.ie for help. Thanks :)
Hello all! Please ensure that you are posting a new thread or question in the appropriate forum. The Feedback forum is overwhelmed with questions that are having to be moved elsewhere. If you need help to verify your account contact hello@boards.ie
Hi there,
There is an issue with role permissions that is being worked on at the moment.
If you are having trouble with access or permissions on regional forums please post here to get access: https://www.boards.ie/discussion/2058365403/you-do-not-have-permission-for-that#latest

Predicting the Next General Election

  • 22-12-2011 10:58PM
    #1
    Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,488 ✭✭✭


    I predict that next time round Fianna Fáil will have recovered the lions share of their support base and will sit pretty with around 60 seats. Labour and Fine Gael will see their vote collapse, as voters quickly realise that the fiction peddled to them in the last election - that the Irish people or their representatives have a real and tangible control over their economic destiny - was a politically convenient lie. Sinn Féin and the left will register increased support, but not nearly significant enough to make up for the loss of seats by Labour. We'll more than likely see a minority FF government reliant on Labour support (I can't picture Labour forming a part in such a government)

    Automatically I can hear the shrill banshee's in the distance, foolishly telling themselves that the Irish people have abandoned the Fianna Fáil party and all that it represents. I think those people are delusional. FF are the dark heart of the Irish people, they represent the narrow sectional gombeen interests that has so eroded the political virtue of this democracy, which is (Quite remarkably) one of the oldest continuously democratic countries in Europe. The cause of the moral erosion is not some crew of Machiavellian schemers, but the stunning selfishness of the Irish people.*

    To summarise: The future is bleak. Emigrate now.

    *Unfortunately I listened to 20 minutes of the Joe Duffy show the other day and my faith in the Irish people is at an all time low.


Comments

  • Closed Accounts Posts: 23,316 ✭✭✭✭amacachi


    Fianna Fail to lead a coalition government with either FG or Labour IMO. FG could always try some gerrymandering to keep the far left from gaining too much because as far as I can tell whether a constituency is 3, 4 or 5 seats they wouldn't get more than one person elected barring a "personality" so getting rid of the 3-seaters would keep most of the seats for FF, FG and Labour.


    I do like the line about the lies from FG and Labour though, almost as though FF said something different. :pac:


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 21,727 ✭✭✭✭Godge


    Can we close this thread and open in three and a half years? There will be no general election until then unless the people are stupid enough to vote us out of Europe.

    but if you want my view, by the time of the next election, FG and Labour will have us back in the bond markets and they will go to the electorate with the simple message that we saved the country after FF sold us out to the IMF. Don't let that shower back in and give us the chance to really make changes. they will be returned with a reduced majoirty.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,715 ✭✭✭DB21


    Godge wrote: »
    Can we close this thread and open in three and a half years? There will be no general election until then unless the people are stupid enough to vote us out of Europe.

    I'm willing to bet there'll be a new government this time next year.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,407 ✭✭✭Cardinal Richelieu


    My prediction is that SF will do alot better if Pearse Doherty takes over as the leader and replaces the old guard before the next election. FF should make a good recover but will struggle to find enough suitable candidates.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 79 ✭✭bebostunnah


    I predict a riot


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 135 ✭✭Mikel91


    . FF are the dark heart of the Irish people, they represent the narrow sectional gombeen interests that has so eroded the political virtue of this democracy

    Oh my a "Attack a FF thread"

    So do you base your views on recent years or do you have a genuine full out proper politically emerged opinion?
    I met both a Labor and a FG family tonight and I can tell you straight forth....Any family that is politically run is similar to
    how you'd see FF.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,099 ✭✭✭RichardAnd


    I agree that FF will be back in power at some point in the near future. Looking back, FG governments tent to get into power during our traditional generational economic meltdown or to put it another way, FG get in once FF f**k something up. Then, after a few years, people get angry with FG for whatever reason and start to think that the lads in FF aren't so bad after all and vote them back into power to start the cycle again.

    Anyone that says FF are not longer part of the Irish political setting are clinging onto a fading hope. FF were hammered in the last election because people were angry with them but anger, like most extreme emotions, doesn't last long. Given time, the voters will cool off and if the economy settles down (or should that be up :) ), they will probably drift back into their old voting habits.

    Personally, I am reaching a point where I question the veracity of voting at all. The great George Carlin was very vocal about his abstinence from the act because he seen it as a fallacy designed to give the plebs the illusion of freedom. When one considers that there are very influential public servants and wealthy persons who are not elected or answerable for their actions, it is difficult not to give merit to this belief.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 2,930 ✭✭✭COYW


    My prediction is that SF will do alot better if Pearse Doherty takes over as the leader and replaces the old guard before the next election. FF should make a good recover but will struggle to find enough suitable candidates.

    As I said when the current government was formed, I can't see it lasting the full term and FF will be back in power after the next general election. Enda has been far better than I expected to be fair but I see Labour imploding over the next year so, particularly when they are forced to tackle the unions.

    On SF, an awful lot of people won't vote for them with the current guard in place. They will do well in the opinion polls but it won't translate into votes in an election. Also, their policies leave a lot to be desired when examined in detail.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 4,073 ✭✭✭Xenophile


    In opposition historically FF has been very negative and continues to be so, in the present climate negative opposition for the purpose of trying to regain it's former "glory" only damages confidence and further adds to the doom and gloom that is so widespread though out our republic.

    Fianna Fail will always be associated in the minds of younger people with failure, cronyism and self interest, in other words putting party before country.

    Too many jaded personalties in F.F that have done more than well from Irish Politics over the last twenty years or more, Mr.Michael Martin and Mr. Willie O'Dea come to mind immediately.

    Remedy : Dissolve the party and join other parties of their choice where they would be welcome and of course let some of them join the Independent benches.

    The name Fianna Fail is not a mantra for hope but quite the opposite "despair". Best to consign this political party to history. We can have hope, optimism and confidence, but not by the negative campaigning that F.F is embarking on.

    The Forum on Spirituality has been closed for years. Please bring it back, there are lots of Spiritual people in Ireland and elsewhere.



  • Closed Accounts Posts: 264 ✭✭harrythehat


    I don't see how FF can return to it's former glory. Too many old hands retired before the last election. Even if they doubled the seats they have now, a nigh-on impossible task, they'd have only around 40 seats.

    All politics is local. I think at a local level FG and Labour TDs will be able to convince their constituents that they have done the best they could with the mess FF left behind them. They won't lose too many seats, except over parish pump issues.

    Where they do lose seats, they won't automatically go to FF. SF will make gains and the Greens are talking about making a comeback, there's always a niche there that will see them through a seat or two.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 9,026 ✭✭✭Lockstep


    It's really impossible for me to predict how things will go.
    If FG and Labour bring in tentative economic growth, then they should have enough to form a new government (although Labour will have reduced seats) whereas FF will have more seats than they do now and will tout themselves as a reformed party.
    Far left will probably see a few extra seats but nothing special.

    If the economy stays this bad or gets worse, I literally have no idea how it will pan out.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 10,562 ✭✭✭✭Sunnyisland


    As I dont see a election anytime soon I might assume that FF will get back into power with the support of SF ?, Really its way to early to call, bump this thread back up next year if were all still here ;-)


  • Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 28,842 Mod ✭✭✭✭oscarBravo


    RichardAnd wrote: »
    ...to put it another way, FG get in once FF f**k something up. Then, after a few years, people get angry with FG for whatever reason...
    The "whatever reason" is that FG are forced to introduce austerity in order to fix the economy that FF broke by wanton spending. People like wanton spending, and they don't like austerity.

    It's really quite a brilliant strategy by FF in the long term: buy elections until the country runs out of money, step aside long enough for FG to fix the economy, then resume the cycle again. Destructive as all hell, but we keep rewarding them for it. Democracy: you get the government you deserve.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,488 ✭✭✭Denerick


    Mikel91 wrote: »
    Oh my a "Attack a FF thread"

    So do you base your views on recent years or do you have a genuine full out proper politically emerged opinion?
    I met both a Labor and a FG family tonight and I can tell you straight forth....Any family that is politically run is similar to
    how you'd see FF.

    Lol. You clearly didn't read my post. I have long argued that the inadequacies of FF as a political party are the net result of a terrible Irish citizenry; FF simply provide a service which there was a sufficient demand for.


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 135 ✭✭Mikel91


    Yeah hah sorry about that...well lets just saw I was..erm not in the most sober of minds at the time and felt like making a point :pac:.(I#ve become what I hate hah hah)


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 5,729 ✭✭✭Pride Fighter


    Prediction, for the government to lose seats.

    Likely outcome and governments, 1) FG and Lab hold on. With Labour back down to 20 seats and FG maybe on 65. 2) FF storm back and FG and Labour take a serious kicking, FG maybe 40 seats, Labour 12. FF with about 55-60 can go into coalition with with SF 25-30. 3) Option ones seat numbers. Triple coalition of FF, maybe 40, SF 25-30 and Lab 20.

    I think 1 or 3 is the most likely IMO.


  • Posts: 8,647 ✭✭✭ [Deleted User]


    DB21 wrote: »
    I'm willing to bet there'll be a new government this time next year.

    100 euros? No reneging! Unless you are not a man of your word?


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 1,846 ✭✭✭Fromthetrees


    I'd love a new party to emerge and take enough seats to become the main party in government. **** fianna fail, **** the current shower, we need democracy for the people by the people, Ireland for the Irish...


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,922 ✭✭✭Coillte_Bhoy


    amacachi wrote: »
    Fianna Fail to lead a coalition government with either FG or Labour IMO. FG could always try some gerrymandering to keep the far left from gaining too much because as far as I can tell whether a constituency is 3, 4 or 5 seats they wouldn't get more than one person elected barring a "personality" so getting rid of the 3-seaters would keep most of the seats for FF, FG and Labour.


    I do like the line about the lies from FG and Labour though, almost as though FF said something different. :pac:

    Eh, actually no, it would benefit the major parties to get rid of the 5 seaters. For the main parties 3 seaters would be the preferred option.


  • Closed Accounts Posts: 3,514 ✭✭✭PseudoFamous


    If a well organised socialist party manages to prop up, I could see them doing well in the next election. Assuming there won't be any major infighting amongst parties or new parties, Fine Gael will make a large loss of seats, Fianna Fail will make a considerable gain, Labour and Sinn Fein may make small gains.


  • Advertisement
  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 7,922 ✭✭✭Coillte_Bhoy


    If a well organised socialist party manages to prop up, I could see them doing well in the next election. Assuming there won't be any major infighting amongst parties or new parties, Fine Gael will make a large loss of seats, Fianna Fail will make a considerable gain, Labour and Sinn Fein may make small gains.

    I would love to see you explain why and how you think Labour may make small gains? The history of coalitons would suggest otherwise as would recent polls


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 833 ✭✭✭snafuk35


    Denerick wrote: »
    I predict that next time round Fianna Fáil will have recovered the lions share of their support base and will sit pretty with around 60 seats. Labour and Fine Gael will see their vote collapse, as voters quickly realise that the fiction peddled to them in the last election - that the Irish people or their representatives have a real and tangible control over their economic destiny - was a politically convenient lie. Sinn Féin and the left will register increased support, but not nearly significant enough to make up for the loss of seats by Labour. We'll more than likely see a minority FF government reliant on Labour support (I can't picture Labour forming a part in such a government)

    Automatically I can hear the shrill banshee's in the distance, foolishly telling themselves that the Irish people have abandoned the Fianna Fáil party and all that it represents. I think those people are delusional. FF are the dark heart of the Irish people, they represent the narrow sectional gombeen interests that has so eroded the political virtue of this democracy, which is (Quite remarkably) one of the oldest continuously democratic countries in Europe. The cause of the moral erosion is not some crew of Machiavellian schemers, but the stunning selfishness of the Irish people.*

    To summarise: The future is bleak. Emigrate now.

    *Unfortunately I listened to 20 minutes of the Joe Duffy show the other day and my faith in the Irish people is at an all time low.

    Oh the electorate won't vote the way you want them too? Aww bless!


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 6,488 ✭✭✭Denerick


    snafuk35 wrote: »
    Oh the electorate won't vote the way you want them too? Aww bless!

    No. Actually I was remarking upon the stupidity of the Irish electorate, not that they don't vote the way I want. The fact that they will more than likely propel Fianna Fáil into the next government says a lot about the Irish people and our civic vacuity.


  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,638 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    Xenophile wrote: »
    In opposition historically FF has been very negative and continues to be so, in the present climate negative opposition for the purpose of trying to regain it's former "glory" only damages confidence and further adds to the doom and gloom that is so widespread though out our republic.

    It is SF which has taken over the role of opposing everything and continually following the negative line of narrative.
    My prediction is that SF will do alot better if Pearse Doherty takes over as the leader and replaces the old guard before the next election.

    The problem is that Adams along with the old guard, like De Valera in FF back in the day, will likely attempt to dominate the party right up until the very end of his political career - and I can see him attempting to stretch out that political career until his twilight years. If there is to be a power struggle the party would split.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 833 ✭✭✭snafuk35


    Denerick wrote: »
    No. Actually I was remarking upon the stupidity of the Irish electorate, not that they don't vote the way I want. The fact that they will more than likely propel Fianna Fáil into the next government says a lot about the Irish people and our civic vacuity.

    What you are effectively saying is that because the Irish people don't vote the way you want them to, they must be stupid. No attempt to understand people, no attempt to investigate, no attempt to find out what and how people think. Instead you simply dismiss them as stupid.


  • Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 9,796 Mod ✭✭✭✭Manach


    My guess, is there will be more independents. If they base their campaigns on pure local issues "Save our <insert special interest>" then forming an absolute majority government might be difficult.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 833 ✭✭✭snafuk35


    Manach wrote: »
    My guess, is there will be more independents. If they base their campaigns on pure local issues "Save our <insert special interest>" then forming an absolute majority government might be difficult.

    And why not? Why shouldn't there be more independents who are beholden to local interests? Why shouldn't it be harder for governments to be cobbled together? Recent history should demonstrate that big parties smothered independent voices, that the interests of little people were ignored in favor of the powerful lobbies and that the politically powerful considered their re-election a mere formality.


  • Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 28,842 Mod ✭✭✭✭oscarBravo


    snafuk35 wrote: »
    And why not? Why shouldn't there be more independents who are beholden to local interests?
    How many independent TDs can you cite who have made a strong, positive and valuable contribution to improving the quality of national government?


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 833 ✭✭✭snafuk35


    oscarBravo wrote: »
    How many independent TDs can you cite who have made a strong, positive and valuable contribution to improving the quality of national government?

    What has that got to do with anything?


  • Advertisement
  • Moderators, Category Moderators, Computer Games Moderators, Society & Culture Moderators Posts: 8,638 CMod ✭✭✭✭Sierra Oscar


    snafuk35 wrote: »
    What has that got to do with anything?

    Everything, considering TD's are meant to be our national legislators and not councillors.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 833 ✭✭✭snafuk35


    Everything, considering TD's are meant to be our national legislators and not councillors.

    TDs are elected to represent their constituencies.


  • Technology & Internet Moderators Posts: 28,842 Mod ✭✭✭✭oscarBravo


    snafuk35 wrote: »
    TDs are elected to represent their constituencies.
    So who represents the country?


  • Registered Users, Registered Users 2 Posts: 12,998 ✭✭✭✭Sand


    I think people may be overhyping both the stupidity of the Irish people and the overpowering, all knowing, all seeing evil of the Fianna Fail party.

    People might dislike Labour for lying, but they arent going to run back into the arms of Fianna "****ing" Fail. The brand name is toxic. When people look at their mortgage, they see Fianna Fail. When people look at the unemployment rate, they see Fianna Fail. When people see cutbacks and tax hikes, they see Fianna Fail. When people read about NAMA paying bankrupts 200,000 Euro a year, they see Fianna Fail. When people read about Croke Park forcing crazy payouts to failed civil servants, they see Fianna Fail. The likes of Sinn Fein are much more likely to benefit from a vote transfer of the escapist vote than Fianna Fail will.

    And on the other hand, Fianna Fail are not some sort of horror movie villain. They dont simply get up unharmed and unhindered after being run over with a dump truck. Fianna Fail got decimated at the last election. Not beaten - decimated. Brian Cowen didnt even bother contesting his seat - he was the first Taoiseach in the history of the Republic to not even bother contesting his seat. And he did so because even his loyalist cohorts were telling him he didnt have a prayer. Vast amounts of known Fianna Fail brandnames were either turfed out or knew not to even bother and their organisation was demoralised and berated on doorsteps for their troubles.

    Fianna Fail cannot and will not repair the immense damage done to them as a brand and an organisation in a few months or years. I know Fianna Fail threatened the Irish people that they would be back, but its an idle threat. Fianna Fail will be happy to maintain their seats at the next election. Even that would be celebrated as a huge success.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 13,018 ✭✭✭✭jank


    Labour will fare very badly in the next election.

    Finna Fail may be around in another guise. They may increase their numbers but there is not going to be a massive increase of votes or seats.
    Sinn Fein will do very well.
    4 years is a long time and A LOT can happen in the meantime.

    My prediction. A coalition government between FG and FF nua with Leo as leader.


Advertisement