Bye bye Sarkozy

Scofflaw · 06-05-2012 9:28pm #1

So, Sarkozy is out, and apparently to retire from politics, and Hollande is in, but by a smaller margin than expected.

Reactions vary, but whatever happens should not only be interesting, but will have the added bonus of not involving Sarkozy, who I'd have to regard as one a of a generation of European leaders almost entirely lacking in either vision or guiding principles. Or indeed, considering the Strauss-Khan affair, ethics.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Wild Bill · 06-05-2012 9:31pm

As are the daft Greek europhiles!

Reality is about to bite Germany and the illegitimate FG/Lab regime. :cool:

meglome · 06-05-2012 9:33pm

Wild Bill wrote: »

As are the daft Greek europhiles!

Reality is about to bite Germany and the illegitimate FG/Lab regime. :cool:

huh?

hatrickpatrick · 06-05-2012 9:38pm

Thank Christ.
Sesh on in Dublin tonight to celebrate?

Agent Smith · 06-05-2012 9:41pm

582149_422091841141964_192214550796362_1552277_1112055892_n.jpg

liammur · 06-05-2012 9:44pm

Scofflaw wrote: »

So, Sarkozy is out, and apparently to retire from politics, and Hollande is in, but by a smaller margin than expected.

Reactions vary, but whatever happens should not only be interesting, but will have the added bonus of not involving Sarkozy, who I'd have to regard as one a of a generation of European leaders almost entirely lacking in either vision or guiding principles. Or indeed, considering the Strauss-Khan affair, ethics.

cordially,
Scofflaw

I'm not sorry to see him go, but will Hollande be any better? It's no time for socialists imo.
Also, the bigger news I think appears to be the Greek elections. There will be massive volatility on the markets over the coming months.

Wild Bill · 06-05-2012 9:45pm

meglome wrote: »

huh?

What?

golden lane · 06-05-2012 9:48pm

all euro's to be overprinted as food coupons.....except german ones.....they will be overprinted as duetschmarks...........

i billion food coupons=i duetschmark.........

dsmythy · 06-05-2012 9:56pm

Hollande made a hell of a lot of promises. Won't be long before grumblings start against him, such is typical political cycles.

RandomName2 · 06-05-2012 11:05pm

Scofflaw wrote: »

So, Sarkozy is out, and apparently to retire from politics, and Hollande is in, but by a smaller margin than expected.

Reactions vary, but whatever happens should not only be interesting, but will have the added bonus of not involving Sarkozy, who I'd have to regard as one a of a generation of European leaders almost entirely lacking in either vision or guiding principles. Or indeed, considering the Strauss-Khan affair, ethics.

cordially,
Scofflaw

I didn't like his attitude (at all) - but had I had a vote I'd have thrown it Sark's direction. Both rounds.

Loss of AAA rating was what did it for him.

ongarite · 06-05-2012 11:08pm

More interesting election results are the ones in Greece.
Not that unexpected but total wipeout for the 2 coalition parties and rise of the extremist groups.

funnights74 · 06-05-2012 11:13pm

Let's see what developes between Frauline Merkel and Mr Hollande over the whole euro crisis now, on the face of it they have very little in common but politicians doing u-turns is nothing strange, it's almost normal.

golden lane · 06-05-2012 11:15pm

i think greece may be in for a hard time.......whatever they do.....there will be a reaction from the other eu members.......and it could be a big shock to the big ones in the eu.......

the blame game is going too far in the eu.....but what really was expected with so many different countries........trying to be the same........

carveone · 06-05-2012 11:18pm

liammur wrote: »

I'm not sorry to see him go, but will Hollande be any better? It's no time for socialists imo.

The socialists don't seem to currently dominate parliament (I don't know enough about French politics!) so it's not as if he can change all that much all that fast. I'm wondering do we have a more US style presidency here where Obama seems to be constantly stymied by Congress. Dunno...

A lot of French people I've talked to seemed to dislike Sarko quite a lot. His wife not so much

Also, the bigger news I think appears to be the Greek elections. There will be massive volatility on the markets over the coming months.

Yes. RTE were talking about the rise of the far right (and left) on the News tonight which was cheering. There is volatility on the markets every week anyway! The Euro moved down sharply as the results were announced but have flattened out. It'll be forgotten by tomorrow - the markets have about a one week memory if that!

flutered · 06-05-2012 11:24pm

carveone wrote: »

The socialists don't seem to currently dominate parliament (I don't know enough about French politics!) so it's not as if he can change all that much all that fast. I'm wondering do we have a more US style presidency here where Obama seems to be constantly stymied by Congress. Dunno...

A lot of French people I've talked to seemed to dislike Sarko quite a lot. His wife not so much

Yes. RTE were talking about the rise of the far right (and left) on the News tonight which was cheering. There is volatility on the markets every week anyway! The Euro moved down sharply as the results were announced but have flattened out. It'll be forgotten by tomorrow - the markets have about a one week memory if that!

explain that to our two school teachers, they seem to be opsessed by then, ie telling us the markets this and the markets that.

RichardAnd · 06-05-2012 11:50pm

I'm happy to see the little man go. No doubt he's off to enjoy a not-so-little pension but that's another story.

What about this new guy, what might be expected of him?

carveone · 07-05-2012 12:03am

flutered wrote: »

explain that to our two school teachers, they seem to be opsessed by then, ie telling us the markets this and the markets that.

I'm not exactly qualified to comment but the way it appears to me is that professional and commercial investors are sitting on the sidelines, maybe in commodities, while the retail investors and speculators are buybuybuying. This seems to be leading to a twitchy low volume market where speculators look to make a quick buck and could care less what happened last week.

It'll be interesting to see how the next few days play out. We could do 2011 again, that was fun...

washman3 · 07-05-2012 12:13am

flutered wrote: »

explain that to our two school teachers, they seem to be opsessed by then, ie telling us the markets this and the markets that.

we actually have 3 to be precise, and 3 failed schoolteachers at that.
look forward to the day all 3 get the same kick up the asre that Sarko has just got. a horrible,evil,creepy,nasty bit of stuff he was.

BlaasForRafa · 07-05-2012 12:36am

carveone wrote: »

Yes. RTE were talking about the rise of the far right (and left) on the News tonight which was cheering. There is volatility on the markets every week anyway! The Euro moved down sharply as the results were announced but have flattened out. It'll be forgotten by tomorrow - the markets have about a one week memory if that!

The French election was relatively conventional compared to the Greek one. I was fairly disturbed also by the report on the far-right Greek party Golden Dawn who don't even try to disguise their ideology like the BNP in the UK do. If you look at the Golden Dawn official website its covered in Nazi-esque symbology.

Looking at the actual greek results the traditional parties New Democracy (their equivalent of FF/FG) and Pasok (their equivalent of the Labour party). The Radical Leftists (their equivalent of the ULA I guess) are now the second party in the state and hold the balance of power....can you imagine Joe Higgins or Richard boyd Barrett holding the balance of power here?...I shudder at the mere thought.

The Greek communist party got 8.4% and the Golden Dawn (far right) got 6.9% so they're a long way from power but considering GD got 0.3% in the last election its a worrying trend.

washman3 · 07-05-2012 12:50am

BlaasForRafa wrote: »

Looking at the actual greek results the traditional parties New Democracy (their equivalent of FF/FG) and Pasok (their equivalent of the Labour party). The Radical Leftists (their equivalent of the ULA I guess) are now the second party in the state and hold the balance of power....can you imagine Joe Higgins or Richard boyd Barrett holding the balance of power here?...I shudder at the mere thought.

Do we forget that a
South Kerry Gombeen with a flat cap and a proven tax evader from North Tipp held the balance of power and held this country to ransom for many years,playing a major part in the mess we are in today.??
Time to look at our own sins first....;)

BlaasForRafa · 07-05-2012 12:59am

washman3 wrote: »

Do we forget that a Kerry Gombeen with a flat cap and a proven tax evader from South Tipp held the balance of power and held this country to ransom for many years,playing a major part in the mess we are in today.??
Time to look at our own sins first....;)

Lowry is from North Tipp not South Tipp. And no, "we" don't forget. But just because one group of chancers had the chance to support and incompetent government and extract a ransom from the country dosen't mean that "we" should be happy at the though of another group of populist chancers having that same opportunity.

cyberhog · 07-05-2012 1:00am

RichardAnd wrote: »

What about this new guy, what might be expected of him?

More of the same, but at a slightly slower pace.

washman3 · 07-05-2012 1:22am

BlaasForRafa wrote: »

Lowry is from North Tipp not South Tipp. And no, "we" don't forget. But just because one group of chancers had the chance to support and incompetent government and extract a ransom from the country dosen't mean that "we" should be happy at the though of another group of populist chancers having that same opportunity.

not even if they fill "our" potholes and cut "our" hedgerows...;)

Wild Bill · 07-05-2012 1:29am

BlaasForRafa wrote: »

the Golden Dawn (far right) got 6.9% so they're a long way from power but considering GD got 0.3% in the last election its a worrying trend.

It is indeed - they are an utterly repugnant party. But what this result shows is that the massive censorship of them by the Greek media backfired.

You either believe in free speech or you don't.

The acid test is allowing the expression of opinions you find loathsome. There is no other test.

On this basis how would our "liberal" media fare? Not too well.

Just as well there is no apparent suppressed market for racism in Ireland or our "liberal" media (including boards) would be unwittingly (or witlessly) pouring petrol on the flames. :cool:

TehDagsBass · 07-05-2012 2:00am

I'll be interested to see how the markets react to this weekend. While I'm delighted to see the back of Sarkozy, coupled with the antics of Greece, the EU has entered a new era of uncertainty at a time where confidence in the Union and currency is essential.

southsiderosie · 07-05-2012 2:53am

Scofflaw wrote: »

So, Sarkozy is out, and apparently to retire from politics, and Hollande is in, but by a smaller margin than expected.

Reactions vary, but whatever happens should not only be interesting, but will have the added bonus of not involving Sarkozy, who I'd have to regard as one a of a generation of European leaders almost entirely lacking in either vision or guiding principles. Or indeed, considering the Strauss-Khan affair, ethics.

cordially,
Scofflaw

Perhaps, but when has Hollande ever demonstrated a sense of guiding principles or vision? 'President Bling-bling' arguably did have a vision for changing France's role in international affairs (and he at least came into office talking about domestic reform). Nothing I have read about Hollande suggests that he has ever done anything but lead from behind - is this really going to be the man to help stabilize Europe? Between the DSK debacle and dislike of Sarkozy, Hollande seems rather like an accidental president, rather than one who got into the race because he had a strong sense about where France as a nation should be going - in the twenty-first century, anyway.

washman3 wrote: »

Do we forget that a
South Kerry Gombeen with a flat cap and a proven tax evader from North Tipp held the balance of power and held this country to ransom for many years,playing a major part in the mess we are in today.??
Time to look at our own sins first....;)

Does every conversation about European politics have to go back to the 'shur but look at the morons WE have!"? Ireland's 'sins' in this regard pale in the face of the European nationalist right's history. Gombeenism is one thing, ethnic cleansing and street violence is quite another.

GSF · 07-05-2012 6:29am

It should be good for London house prices as the young & the entreprenurial start to flee France because of higher (still) taxes and likely even more inflexible labour market rules.

I do like the concept of the French thinking they can vote to end austerity. Its about as daft as that campaign by Bono et al a few years ago to make poverty history.

It will all end in tears and not just French ones.

GSF · 07-05-2012 6:32am

BlaasForRafa wrote: »

The French election was relatively conventional compared to the Greek one. I was fairly disturbed also by the report on the far-right Greek party Golden Dawn who don't even try to disguise their ideology like the BNP in the UK do. If you look at the Golden Dawn official website its covered in Nazi-esque symbology.

Strange for a country that suffered so much under the Nazi's and now has Germany as its supposed economic nemesis. Its like lauching a Cromwell party in Ireland.

Ellis Dee · 07-05-2012 6:39am

I wish I was a tabloid headline writer, because today my contribution would be:

France tosses dwarf

z0oT · 07-05-2012 7:21am

Now I guess all it depends upon is how many election promises Hollande renegs upon. :P

And also the Greek Election is looking interesting. Live Tracker here:
http://www.igraphics.gr/en/multimedia/2012/05/elections2012

Breakdown of the parties.

With the current results thus far, it looks that getting a pro-bailout/EU government is going to be difficult, and we very well could see it going to another election again.

Permabear · 07-05-2012 10:08am

This post has been deleted.

Sierra Oscar · 07-05-2012 11:52am

Hollande will do quite a lot of backtracking over the coming months, it is going to be cringeworthy.

Although on the other hand, he will likely discredit the entire socialist movement across Europe when the effects of his policies become evident within France.

Icepick · 07-05-2012 12:28pm

Exactly what we don't need, more populist socialism.

Zonda999 · 07-05-2012 2:34pm

I'll be honest, as much as i disliked Sarkozy, a socialist is not what is needed as French president now.

I know little about French politics really but, given how slender the victory for Hollande was, i can't help but think if Sarkozy had been a bit more normal, he would have retained the presidency. The consequences for Europe here could be dire. There will be uncertainty stemming from this for weeks, combined with the Greek results. Oh and I reckon Greece will end up having to call a repeat election..

jmayo · 07-05-2012 3:05pm

Ellis Dee wrote: »

I wish I was a tabloid headline writer, because today my contribution would be:

France tosses dwarf

They should have waited till the English rugby team were in town to give him a proper sendoff.

It is is no loss to see the little napleon wantabe get his marching orders.
It was none of his bloody business to try and interfer in the internal politics of another state. :mad:
He, Merkel and the other often self appointed European high flyers have made a mess out of the last few years.

And no matter what president France has they will still do their own thing.
And if anyone tries to change it they will just not alone bring their own country to a standstill, but half of western Europe once their rail, shipping and aviation down tools.

carveone · 07-05-2012 3:29pm

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

My brother worked in France for a year years and years ago and he said it was unreal the way the government stymied growth. The socialist policies that made it essentially impossible to fire anyone, no matter what they did, had created an environment where companies, especially SMEs, were scared to death to hire anyone at all. So we had the era of CCCs - continuous consecutive contracts.

One need look no further than the economic disaster that was the Mitterrand government of the early 1980s to see why Hollande's victory makes investors jittery.

Does the President have that much power? Surely the Parliament can put a halt to any really harmful ideas that might come about. Until the next parliamentary elections maybe. I wouldn't have thought his policies were extremist - not SF style anyway.

Asian markets are taking a battering this morning after French and Greek election outcomes give rise to fresh concerns about euro stability.

Oil went off a cliff May 2nd to 4th. Down even harder today to $96.78. Vaguely cheering for some maybe?!

icepick wrote:

Exactly what we don't need, more populist socialism.

Or national socialism

carveone · 07-05-2012 3:47pm

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

Euro against GBP at 0.8060, lowest since late 2008:
http://finviz.com/forex_charts.ashx?t=EURGBP&tf=w1

Not with a bang but a whimper perhaps?

The CAC is now up over 2% from its open, but that's just a retrace of the, what 3.5% or more, drop that it had in anticipiation of Hollande's win. Sell on rumour, buy on news... It's not that encouraging.

Greece is a real worry - if there's no political consensus for the reforms Greece is supposed to be implementing then I cannot see it hanging on in the eurozone. Looks like market volatility for the foreseeable future ....

Sierra Oscar · 07-05-2012 3:53pm

In regards the market instability - forgot about Hollande, his victory has been priced into the market for weeks now. The market instability is currently mirroring the instability in Greece - which looks set to have no government and another election in June. The election results showed a sharp decrease in support for the current incumbents - much more so than was foretasted. What we have in Greece now is a parliament fragmented along a dozen lines.

Greece is not going to stay in the Eurozone much longer I would imagine. It probably wont walk away - but I can see the country being forced out if the next government fails to play ball in regards adhering to the terms of the bailout.

Benny_Cake · 07-05-2012 4:04pm

Sierra Oscar wrote: »

In regards the market instability - forgot about Hollande, his victory has been priced into the market for weeks now. The market instability is currently mirroring the instability in Greece - which looks set to have no government and another election in June. The election results showed a sharp decrease in support for the current incumbents - much more so than was foretasted. What we have in Greece now is a parliament fragmented along a dozen lines.

Greece is not going to stay in the Eurozone much longer I would imagine. It probably wont walk away - but I can see the country being forced out if the next government fails to play ball in regards adhering to the terms of the bailout.

It's difficult to see how a government can be formed in Greece, PASOK and New Democracy have 149 seats between them and are 2 short of a majority. This overstates the level of support for them because the first placed party gets a 50 seat bonus - so the pro-bailout side effectively got less than a third of the popular vote. If some sort of coalition can't be cobbled together by New Democracy, then Syriza (radical left) get to have a go at it, but they're unlikely to have any luck either, not least because the Communists - who in Greece remain unreconstructed Stalinists, have said that they won't cooperate with any party. So there is every chance of an election which no one wants or can afford in the next few weeks.

karma_ · 07-05-2012 4:17pm

Permabear wrote: »

This post had been deleted.

I just love irony.

carveone · 07-05-2012 4:46pm

Benny_Cake wrote: »

It's difficult to see how a government can be formed in Greece, PASOK and New Democracy have 149 seats between them and are 2 short of a majority.

Do you think they can move quickly to gain the support of independents or DIMAR? Or can they work like that over there - we're kinda used to doing these type of deals with the Irish voting system. Is a Syriza/ND coalition even vaguely possible given that Syriza cannot do anything even with the support of Anel (the independent greeks party).

What happens in the worst case - no government for the next few months?

Benny_Cake · 07-05-2012 4:56pm

carveone wrote: »

Do you think they can move quickly to gain the support of independents or DIMAR? Or can they work like that over there - we're kinda used to doing these type of deals with the Irish voting system. Is a Syriza/ND coalition even vaguely possible given that Syriza cannot do anything even with the support of Anel (the independent greeks party).

What happens in the worst case - no government for the next few months?

According to DIMAR, they won't join a pro-bailout government. That would just leave the Independent Greeks who broke away from New Democracy over the issue of the bailout. I wouldn't see what would be in it for either of these parties given that even if a government is formed, elections would seem likely in a few months again and they would have to take the wrath of the electorate. What could happen is that some MP's could break with their parties and back the government perhaps? Like most, I'm only learning about Greek politics now but according to this article, ND will get 3 days to form a government, then Syriza will get 3 days, then PASOK, and if they aren't successful, it's back to the polls.

RichieC · 07-05-2012 7:00pm

I love being reminded by market fundies how they'll punish countries for voting their conscience. Oh wait, no, it makes me sick.

Benny_Cake · 07-05-2012 7:14pm

Looks like New Democracy have already given up trying to form a coalition in Greece - the poisoned chalice is now passed to the Coalition of the Radical Left, and it's hard to see how they'll have any more luck.

rumour · 07-05-2012 7:45pm

southsiderosie wrote: »

Perhaps, but when has Hollande ever demonstrated a sense of guiding principles or vision? 'President Bling-bling' arguably did have a vision for changing France's role in international affairs (and he at least came into office talking about domestic reform). Nothing I have read about Hollande suggests that he has ever done anything but lead from behind - is this really going to be the man to help stabilize Europe?

Qui suis-je?

Mon père était un riche bourgeois (Médecin ORL, propriétaire de plusieurs cliniques) et il militait à l’extrême droite aux côtés de Maître Tixier-Vignancourt et pour l’OAS.

J’ai passé mon enfance à Bois-Guillaume, ville résidentielle (sur les hauteurs de Rouen) où habitent les plus riches normands.

... ...

Je fus élevé chez les « bourges du privé », que je critique constamment à « St Jean-Baptiste de la Salle à Rouen ».

Puis j’ai continué mes études dans la commune des aristocrates et des grands-bourgeois : à NEUILLY SUR SEINE où mes parents avaient acheté une superbe propriété.

Malgré ma fortune et mon patrimoine estimé à plus de 10 Millions d’Euros, je ne paie pas l’ISF car un montage ingénieux sous forme de plusieurs SCI me rend quasiment introuvable par le fisc français.

A la fin des années 70, sortant de l’ENA je sens que la droite va perdre et que Mitterrand est sur la pente ascendante, pour assurer mon avenir je choisis alors de rejoindre le PS.

Je n’ai jamais dirigé une grande ville.

Je n’ai jamais dirigé une grande région.

Je n’ai jamais été ministre ni secrétaire d’état.

Je dirige malgré tout le département de la Corrèze qui est devenu grâce à moi en 4 ans le plus endetté de France (+ 25% de dette soit 3 fois plus que la moyenne nationale) et le seul où le nombre de fonctionnaires a augmenté de 50% dans le même temps (de 831 à 1231).

Pour 2012 dans mon département, j’ai déjà fait voter une hausse de 6.5% de la taxe foncière, de 300% les taxes sur les permis de construire. J’ai supprimé : les bourses étudiantes, la gratuité des transports scolaires, les 1000 € de prime de garde d’enfants et diminué presque toutes les aides aux personnes âgées ou dépendantes.

Je ne déjeune pas au Fouquet's, je vais dans un endroit plus discret mais encore plus chic où j'ai fêté ma récente victoire aux primaires socialistes et où dernièrement j'ai été l'invité d'un assez pauvre, Pierre BERGE. Ma cantine, c'est chez LAURENT dans le 8ème.

J'envisage d'augmenter de 45 milliards d'euros les impôts et taxes en tout genre car c'est plus facile que de diminuer le nombre de fonctionnaires, je souhaite d'ailleurs en embaucher 65.000 de plus ...

Ce qui coûtera 100 milliards à la FRANCE car un fonctionnaire est payé par l’état à vie, sécurité de l’emploi oblige!!!

Je n’aime pas les riches qui gagnent plus de 4000 euros par mois mais j'en gagne 7,5 fois plus avec mes 30.387 € par mois !!!

Donc 63% de plus que le Président de la République (19 331 € par mois) que j'accuse d'être proche des riches ...

Je m’appelle………….

François HOLLANDE

Some background into this character. The french are as deluded as we were voting for Bertie and Brian. For some more acccurate analysis read the economist article

TehDagsBass · 07-05-2012 8:14pm

rumour wrote: »

Some background into this character. The french are as deluded as we were voting for Bertie and Brian. For some more acccurate analysis read the economist article

Indeed. Populist socialism succeeding here will come with a heavy price tag for just about everyone.

Big movements on the markets already and the UK aren't even trading today. If Greece can't pull it together fairly rapidly we're going to be in a fairly terrible situation I would imagine.

Although, in saying that, at this stage I am hoping Greece are made an example of and are removed from the Euro, have their access to credit removed and their access to the free common market removed along with it.

Icepick · 07-05-2012 9:50pm

TehDagsBass wrote: »

and their access to the free common market removed along with it.

no

doomed · 07-05-2012 9:55pm

Its hard to believe the French would elect a Socialist when things have been going so well in Europe.

Wild Bill · 07-05-2012 10:28pm

doomed wrote: »

Its hard to believe the French would elect a Socialist when things have been going so well in Europe.

Yes; 40% youth unemployment in the EU part of Southern Europe.

I really can't understand why they'd ditch all that success. :cool:

20Cent · 07-05-2012 11:36pm

It will be interesting to see how things change with the election of Hollande good to have a different viewpoint instead of continuing the failed neoliberal policies which are making things worse. It was very arrogant of Merkel to say the treaty is not up for renegotiation of course it is. Hollande seems to be a very moderate socialist.

carveone · 08-05-2012 12:10am

It was very arrogant of Merkel to say the treaty is not up for renegotiation of course it is.

I believe she had qualified that remark previously by saying that one of the reasons it could not be renegotiated was that Ireland was having a referendum on it. I believe that respecting our sovereignty was a big thing last time around....

Bye bye Sarkozy

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