Ante post Cheltenham Part II

convert · 29-01-2013 05:21PM #1

Let's hope this one gets us all to Cheltenham in one piece!

subtle hint!

El Ninotorres · 29-01-2013 05:49PM

what do people make of of Pure Science chances in the bumper? Still available at 12/1.

ft9 · 29-01-2013 05:52PM

Grandouet at 7/1 looks a cracking ew bet atm. Can't see him being out of the places, hopefully winning. A very open Champion Hurdle this year.

UrbanSea · 29-01-2013 06:06PM

Have only had one ante post bet. China Rock at 25s for the Ryanair.

Look at the way he travelled in last year's Gold Cup before not staying. Travelled very well in what looks a good Lexus at Christmas before emptying too. I'll have another bet now at 20/1, looking at the market there are a couple ahead of him in the better I can see not going, First Lieutenant, Sir Des Champs, Grands Crus all ahead of him in the betting and a few others. Think he could run a big race

Slattsy · 29-01-2013 06:52PM

El Ninotorres wrote: »

what do people make of of Pure Science chances in the bumper? Still available at 12/1.

Backed him on his debut. Beautifully bred by Galileo.
Hard to gauge the form, bound to improve a bundle because he was weak in the betting. Unusual for NTD horse to win if un fancied.

I'll probably stick a small bet on purely because I had him last time. The Irish form tends to be better though.

Slattsy · 29-01-2013 06:55PM

What's the word on Boston Bob? Been pulled out of one or two races lately. I'm sure Mullins would love to get a run into him before Cheltenham.

On phone so can't see any entries coming up.

shy-tall-knight · 29-01-2013 07:01PM

Slattsy wrote: »

What's the word on Boston Bob? Been pulled out of one or two races lately. I'm sure Mullins would love to get a run into him before Cheltenham.

On phone so can't see any entries coming up.

Has an entry in the PJ Moriarty on Hennessy day. Then the 3 top novice chases and the 4 miler at Cheltenham.

Colonel Sanders · 29-01-2013 07:03PM

Slattsy wrote: »

What's the word on Boston Bob? Been pulled out of one or two races lately. I'm sure Mullins would love to get a run into him before Cheltenham.

On phone so can't see any entries coming up.

He was entered at the weekend in the race SDC won last year. Think he might have been entered in the Arkle too

Has an entry in the Moriarty Hennessy Day too AFAIK.

His RSA price has been very up & down on Betfair. There was good money waiting on the pint side last night but a lot of it seems to have been laid

rossom · 29-01-2013 07:17PM

The ante-post bets I've had to date are as follows:

Supreme Novices Dodging Bullets 14/1 & Un Atout 20/1 (will lay off my stake on the latter in the next few days)
Champion Hurdle Pearl Swan 70s on exchange
Coral Cup Son Of Flicka 33/1
Champion Bumper Golantilla 20/1 & Moyle Park 85s on exchange
Triumph Hurdle Kashmir Peak 33/1
Albert Bartlett Ballycasey 12/1 (small bet)

Also contemplating backing Oscara Dara 20/1 (NRFB) for the World Hurdle. Completely unexposed and bolted up off a mark of 140 in the Lanzarote. Up a stone to a mark off 154 and looks set to compete in either the Welsh Champion Hurdle Handicap or Heroes Handicap at the weekend. The World Hurdle looks an extremely winnable contest this year and this one seems on an quick upward curve. If he wins either race (which will be carrying either 11-11 or 11-12) then I think he throws himself bang in the mix for the race.

Pearlstone · 29-01-2013 07:25PM

I have a sneaky fancy for Ted Walsh's Champagne James in the Champion Bumper. Loved the way he got up first time up and thought his rider got tactically outmanoeuvred by PW in his last run. Both runs in Navan, a track I think is always a good prepping track for the festival.

Rastadoyle · 29-01-2013 07:27PM

what about Quel Esprit? which race will go for at cheltenham if any? seems to been of the track for a bit

Johner · 29-01-2013 08:40PM

Quel Espirit is entered in the Hennessy and might take his chance in that. For Cheltenham he is entered in the Ryanair and the Gold Cup. He's not a true Grade 1 horse though isn't good enough to win a Gold Cup and the Ryanair looks like it will be very strong this year. Might be aimed at Punchestown again.

Colonel Sanders · 29-01-2013 08:47PM

Since we're back on topic I've the following:

1pt each way Snake Eyes - supreme novice 33/1 (the less said about this the better!!!)
2pts win Darlan - Champion Hurdle 14/1
2pts win Boston Bob - RSA Chase 10/1 (worried about this, he's only had one run & his price has been very up & down on Betfair)
0.5pt win Moyle Park - Champion Bumper 84/1
1.5 pts win Blood Cotil - Triumph Hurdle 25/1 (looks a seriously classy & competitive race this year)

Not a bad book. I hope Darlan wins a trial impressively & starts quite short as I'm very worried about his Cheltenham form & anyhow he's still quite under priced based on the Xmas hurdle sprint.

ste2010 · 29-01-2013 09:46PM

There serious prices on moyle park!!!
I didn't bother doing much antepost this year.

Diakali 20-1 triumph

Each way Accumulator - if they all place it pays around 200-1
Dodging bullets 14-1 supreme
First lieutenant 12-1 gold cup
Monksland 9-1 world hurdle
Grandouet 7-1 champion hurdle
Sizing Europe 12-1 Ryanair

I did a pont Alexandre 9/2 and grandouet 7-1 double

Ill probably back aupcharlie for the jewson this weekend.

I think the RSA will be won by a long shot this year. Alot of long prices and I plan on finding one of those. I think the RSA has been won by the top 3 in te betting the past few years if I can recollect.

ft9 · 29-01-2013 09:57PM

My one and only ante-post Lucky 15 placed on 20th Nov.

Arkle
Overturn 8.00

Champion Hurdle
Hurricane Fly 6.00

Champion Chase
Sprinter Sacre 2.00

World Hurdle
Big Bucks 2.25

Off to a flyer with Big Bucks.

Overthelast · 29-01-2013 10:01PM

Bosons angel 16/1 a couple of years back. I remember as I had a very small bet on him. Yes, those moyle park prices look rather tasty don't they.

Colonel Sanders · 29-01-2013 10:09PM

Overthelast wrote: »

Yes, those moyle park prices look rather tasty don't they.

All he has to do now is run. Then win!

ste2010 · 29-01-2013 10:20PM

Anyone know when handicap entries are in for Cheltenham and weights are assigned?
Would it be worth getting a mini team together to try and identify any laid up horses given the amount of them last year

tipster · 29-01-2013 10:24PM

Danny Mullins now retained jockey for Barry Connell with immediate effect

Slattsy · 29-01-2013 10:28PM

tipster wrote: »

Danny Mullins now retained jockey for Barry Connell with immediate effect

And that's in the ante post thread because.....

Slattsy · 29-01-2013 10:30PM

Jezki at 6/1
And Diakali at 16/1

My only ante post so far.

Boston Bob was one I wanted to do before he ran. But may hold fire now.

Might do one of the Champion Hurdle horses soon. Try eek out a bit of value before they run against each other soon.

klairondavis · 29-01-2013 10:35PM

I think Boston Bob's lack of runs is deliberate. There were suggestions that Willie and Ruby thought he was over the top in the Albert Bartlett and they wanted to go a bit easier on him this year. He'll hopefully have a nice prep run somewhere in the next few weeks (Moriarty presumably?) and put in a nice round of fencing. I'm desperate to take on Dynaste in the RSA but Boston Bob is the only other horse I would rate in the likely field.

Slattsy · 29-01-2013 10:38PM

klairondavis wrote: »

I think Boston Bob's lack of runs is deliberate. There were suggestions that Willie and Ruby thought he was over the top in the Albert Bartlett and they wanted to go a bit easier on him this year. He'll hopefully have a nice prep run somewhere in the next few weeks (Moriarty presumably?) and put in a nice round of fencing. I'm desperate to take on Dynaste in the RSA but Boston Bob is the only other horse I would rate in the likely field.

My sentiments too. He's 7/1 in places. He'll be half that on the day if he wins the Moriarty.
Dynaste is definitely a false price.

Graupel · 29-01-2013 10:40PM

Only two multiples so far, Don't really like doing big singles so far out.

A treble of

At fishers cross - Albert bartlett 5/1
Pont alexandre - Neptune 3/1
Bog warrior - World hurdle 10/1

And a 5 fold of

Hurricane fly - Champion hurdle 7/2
Monksland - World hurdle 8/1
Sprinter sacre - Champion chase 1/2
Simonsig - Arkle 4/5
Jezki - Supreme 4/1

tipster · 29-01-2013 10:59PM

Slattsy wrote: »

And that's in the ante post thread because.....

because im sure golantilla will be heavily involved in this thread and he"ll be riding it now

Charlie George · 29-01-2013 11:29PM

What race will cue card go in,entered in ryanair and the queen mother,ran a poor race over christmas but likes the festival.

jayroyal · 29-01-2013 11:34PM

Only bets I have done are two small wagers

Un Atout in surpreme at 14s doubled with Golantilla 14s
and
Un Atout in neptune at 16s doubled with Golantilla 14s

Here's hoping Un Atout hacks up in the surpreme and is so well in himself he takes his chances in the Neptune. If it was Punchestown Mullins might do it but I'm dreaming now.

jimjamcos · 29-01-2013 11:36PM

Charlie George wrote: »

What race will cue card go in,entered in ryanair and the queen mother,ran a poor race over christmas but likes the festival.

Ryanair as long as Sprinter Scare runs in Queen Mother I'd say. Tizzard's seem like pragmatic folk, they know they haven't a hope of beating SS and Ryanair trip should be right down his street.

shy-tall-knight · 30-01-2013 12:18AM

RichieLawlessness wrote: »

Have only had one ante post bet. China Rock at 25s for the Ryanair.

Look at the way he travelled in last year's Gold Cup before not staying. Travelled very well in what looks a good Lexus at Christmas before emptying too. I'll have another bet now at 20/1, looking at the market there are a couple ahead of him in the better I can see not going, First Lieutenant, Sir Des Champs, Grands Crus all ahead of him in the betting and a few others. Think he could run a big race

Read in the times today that Mouse still hopes that he could be a GC horse. The first time tongue tie worked the oracle in Punchestown last year and he would have needed the run in the Lexus. Connections want to use the Hennessy to get a definitive answer as to whether he is a true stayer with the tongue strap. If he stays the Hennessy trip and is in the shake up, they'll go for the Gold Cup. If not and he stops coming into the straight as he has done many times over 3m, then it'll be the Ryanair.

Hulk Hands · 30-01-2013 08:37AM

Hulk Hands wrote: »

Ante post book so far consists of:

Supreme: Jezki 16/1 e/w, Un atout 45/1, 33/1 e/w. 20/1 e/w

Champion hurdle: Simonsig 30/1, Vendor 750/1. Hurricane Fly 9/2 (Double with Irish Champion he won)

Queen Mother: Somersby 33/1 e/w

Arkle: Overturn 12/1

Neptune: Pont Alexandre 7/1

Rsa: Rocky Creek 14/1 e/w

Albert Bartlett: Ballycasey 14/1 e/w

World Hurdle: Oscar Whiskey 7/1

Gold Cup: Hidden Cyclone 50/1, Katenko 50/1 e/w

A couple looking good, a couple dead already. I won't dabble much more. Only one i'm thinking of is Bobs Worth e/w (1/4 odds) with Betfred who are NRNB at 3/1. Strange bet, so anyone any opinions on it? Reasoning being that I could envisage one possibly being more classy than him. I can't see three and his credentials are bombproof. I also think he'll shorten to start 2's or thereabouts on the day

That's my updated book from the previous thread. The bet on Jezki isn't huge, but I won't say no to him winning. Un Atout would pay for Cheltenham a few times over at this stage.

Other than that the biggest bets are on Overturn, Pont Alexander and HF.

Suarez20 · 30-01-2013 11:49AM

new on this, but been reading the posts for last few weeks!

have a couple of nice doubles and trebles on simonsig at 3s sprinter 5/4 quevega evns and boston bob at 10s done after the festival last year! I'm hoping theres nothing wrong with Boston Bob as he's been pulled out right few times and if that was due to bad ground and willie runs him on henessy day and he wins he could be 3s against dynaste who is a joke of a favourite imo!

Think neptune will be very hot, the new one looks a class act and so does pont alex wish id took the 8s on pont alex before the weekend as think at 3s now hes short enough!

Johner · 30-01-2013 12:09PM

Suarez20 wrote: »

new on this, but been reading the posts for last few weeks!
dynaste who is a joke of a favourite imo!

Welcome to the forum.

Just wondering why you think he is a joke favourite? I think he is a bit short myself for a race like the RSA but a worthy favourite. He couldnt have been more impressive so far over fences.

Big question is when push comes to shove what will he find and for that reason I think he is a bit short, the RSA is a gruelling and very tough race. Who would you have as favourite?

Suarez20 · 30-01-2013 12:44PM

I should have rephrased, he's done everything he's needed to do so far and that's why he is favourite, however out of all the favourites in cheltenham this year he is the one i'd lay until the cows come home! will not have the stamina to win this gruelling race, and a lot better animals before him have won that feltham at kempton and lost this.
As much as he's a lay it is a struggle to put your finger on something to beat him I agree, but I think if Boston bob turns up on hennessy day and wins well then I'd back him to win in a manner that cooldine did a few years back.

premierstone · 30-01-2013 12:59PM

Dynaste really is the elephant in the room alright, yes the RSA is the last race in the world I want to be backing a shorty or so called 'good thing' and I took on Grand Crus last year - but when you examine the race he is head and shoulders above the rest and it is almost impossible to come up with a credible alternative, the fact that Boston Bob is clear second favourite says it all really.

Suarez20 · 30-01-2013 01:08PM

yeah your right there certainly says it all, poor race lacking in depth, just hoping mullins is holding back boston bob for good ground and tbh if there is a star to come out of the race and go on again next year then think it will be BB but sure blind faith is all we can go on until after henessy day if he runs i suppose. All i know is if he isn't pulled out then I'll be backing him ew at 7s before he runs as the price will def drop if hes successful!

whats the opinion on the supreme? be very interesting to see who barry and ap choose as realsitically they have to choose 2 of puffin billy, my tent or yours, river maigue and jezki! not a bad choice now! for the record I've backed mtoy at 20's but not a race to go big in I don't think and fact Jezki won't have a run beforehand imo puts me off him

Johner · 30-01-2013 01:14PM

Geraghty won't have a choice of Puffin Billy, the only reason he rode him was because Leigton Aspell was banned. I'd say he will choose River Maigue over MTOY and McCoy will be on Jezki.

Suarez20 · 30-01-2013 01:22PM

Right right, just remember he had rode him in his last race so presumed he wouldve had the choice! hope to catch up with barry on one of the preview evenings see what he makes of puffin billy v jezki!

mdwexford · 30-01-2013 01:37PM

Dynaste is one of my best bets of the meeting at this stage and I was firmly against Grands Crus last year as well. Nothing of the caliber of Bobs Worth or First Lieutenant in this years renewal though and he has been faultless so far over fences.

I would like him to have another run though, that's the only negative in my eyes, the same negative as for my other best bet of the meeting Bobs Worth.

yaboya1 · 30-01-2013 01:38PM

Suarez20 wrote: »

yeah your right there certainly says it all, poor race lacking in depth, just hoping mullins is holding back boston bob for good ground and tbh if there is a star to come out of the race and go on again next year then think it will be BB but sure blind faith is all we can go on until after henessy day if he runs i suppose. All i know is if he isn't pulled out then I'll be backing him ew at 7s before he runs as the price will def drop if hes successful!

whats the opinion on the supreme? be very interesting to see who barry and ap choose as realsitically they have to choose 2 of puffin billy, my tent or yours, river maigue and jezki! not a bad choice now! for the record I've backed mtoy at 20's but not a race to go big in I don't think and fact Jezki won't have a run beforehand imo puts me off him

Connections have said Puffin Billy will be running in the Neptune anyway.

Johner · 30-01-2013 01:39PM

This is what Barry said about Puffin Billy after he won on him in his bumper at Ascot,

PUFFIN BILLY was a bit keen in the bumper and I kept a lid on him early, but he’s got plenty of pace and won like a good horse. He’s from a very good family and Oliver Sherwood will win good novice hurdles with him after this.

And then after he won on him over hurdles,

PUFFIN BILLY impressed me when we won a bumper together at Ascot in early November and he’s developing into a very smart hurdler. He won the Grade 2 Mitie Kennel Gate Novices' Hurdle at Ascot on the Friday before Christmas over two miles very easily and I was pleased with the way he’s settling down now because he was a bit keen when I rode him before. Two miles is fine at the moment but he’d have no problem staying two and a half.

The worry about Puffin Billy is he hasn't had a race yet over hurdles. I think he could be something special and am happy with my odds on him for the supreme but he still has it all to prove. At least he looks to have learned to settle.

Johner · 30-01-2013 01:40PM

yaboya1 wrote: »

Connections have said Puffin Billy will be running in the Neptune anyway.

They are siding with the Supreme again.

Overthelast · 30-01-2013 01:40PM

Puffin Billy supreme bound

Overthelast · 30-01-2013 01:44PM

I suspect sherwood had a look at leopardstown on Sunday & after watching PA, said " feck that for a game of cowboys, let's try the supreme"..........

Slattsy · 30-01-2013 01:45PM

mdwexford wrote: »

I would like him to have another run though, that's the only negative in my eyes, the same negative as for my other best bet of the meeting Bobs Worth.

The major negative(s) are David Pipe and Tom Scudamore.

Suarez20 · 30-01-2013 01:58PM

ha apart from grands crus scudamore bloody sent every horse they had out to the front in last years festival only to get caught coming up the hill!

puffin billy has cruised in every race hes had is right, hasn't beat much either but i like sherwoods idea of not giving the horse the hard race at the weekend v new one, fishers cross etc could well stand to him

dynaste will not win, he wont stay, he'd walk the jewson though i think!

yaboya1 · 30-01-2013 02:12PM

Didn't hear that about Puffin Billy. Makes the Supreme an even more interesting race than it already is

.

Agreed re: Tom Scudamore, an atrocious jockey!

30-01-2013 03:57PM

EW L15, only done recently so nothing fancy about the prices I am afraid

Dodging Bullets 14/1 (keen on this)
Une Artiste 8/1 (hmmm)
Monksland 8/1 (also keen on this)
Silviniaco Conti 15/2 (hmmm)

Purely an 'interest' bet, no belief I'll be getting rich.

Johner · 30-01-2013 04:15PM

Une Artiste is a great e/w bet. Her form is rock solid and is 2/2 at Cheltenham. The mares race is never really that strong outside of Quevega and if you look at the horses after Quevega a few of them won't turn up.

Can't see Unaccompanied going to Cheltenham.
Kentford Grey Lady might go for the world hurlde after a very good run in the Cleeve.
Then you have the Wille Mullins pair of Zuzka and Glens Melody who are two decent mares but not certain to turn up either.

Une Artiste won't be 8/1 on the day anyway.

30-01-2013 04:28PM

Johner wrote: »

Une Artiste is a great e/w bet. Her form is rock solid and is 2/2 at Cheltenham. The mares race is never really that strong outside of Quevega and if you look at the horses after Quevega a few of them won't turn up.

Can't see Unaccompanied going to Cheltenham.
Kentford Grey Lady might go for the world hurlde after a very good run in the Cleeve.
Then you have the Wille Mullins pair of Zuzka and Glens Melody who are two decent mares but not certain to turn up either.

Une Artiste won't be 8/1 on the day anyway.

Yep, all that factored in. But not happy I stuck in a horse that I don't really expect to win.

Suarez20 · 30-01-2013 04:33PM

yeah def think une artiste is good choice, will throw her in a lucky 15 also, quevega could be more vulnerable this year, i found last years victory was hardest shes ever had to work for it!
kentford lady will be going mares and cant see unaccompanied winning anyway.
Other ones i like are champion court in ryanair, can see many in market around him not turning up
aupcharlie in jewson, prefer him to oscars well who always lets you down!
think salsify is a huge price for foxhunters, once i get paid tonight be a few euros going on him to win again!

UrbanSea · 30-01-2013 04:34PM

William's Wishes out for the season, another to rule out of the CC

Ante post Cheltenham Part II

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