All-Ireland SFC Semi-Final - Dublin -v- Kerry

Gonna be a looooooonnnnnng two weeks !

I think it will be Mayo, but I'd prefer if it was Tyrone.

It will be close and expecting a repeat of 2009 from Kerry. The question is can Dublin use their advantages of pace and fitness to burn out Kerry? We wait and see.

Watching the last few games Dublin are missing plenty of goal opportunities and are also giving away plenty scoring opportunities. Kerry are better defensively than any side they have faced so far and their forward line will hardly miss the chances that Meath,Cork did.

Slight shock on the cards Kerry by 2.

Kerry have been very quiet all summer it has to be said.

Thats when they are most dangerous.

Still think Dublin will win. Home support advantage too.

klairondavis wrote: »

Kerry are well used to playing in Croke Park and having most of the crowd against them. They thrive in that environment if anything.

Well the team has to be good enough also. I hope Dublin dont freeze but i dont expect them to play their best football against Kerry which i would be worried about. Unknown Kerry are lethal.

Amprodude wrote: »

If they turn on the style they very well could.

I just dont trust Dublin to deliver against Kerry.

I will bet you any amount of money that Kerry will not win by a margin of more than 10 points!

This thread seems to be the 'lets play not over-hype Dublin as it may affect them' thread.
They wont pay much heed to what's on a forum so there's no need.

All this stuff about a quiet Kerry is idiotic aswell, as if it is some kind of tactic! Kerry obviously have an outside chance but are a poor incarnation of the team from 2 years ago which lost to Dublin.
It is a previously very strong Kerry team in terminal decline coupled with some very good young players who aren't there yet.

Dublin will win by about 4 points as too much would have to go Kerry's way.

I find all the talk of Kerry "coming in under the radar" to be laughable- how can anyone come in under the radar to a semi-final especially a team that was in the final only 2 years ago.

Don't think Kerry have shown their hand yet to be honest.

I'm confident, but cautious. It's never so simple as turn up and win when its Dublin and Kerry.

keane2097 wrote: »

All depends on Dublin really. Dublin have literally missed about five good goal chances per game in the Championship this year. Kerry are better in defence than Cork but I still expect Dublin to create plenty of goal chances. If they continue to have a dire output on that front it will be very close, if they manage to put a few of them away it won't.

I think that's a pretty good assessment of the game. Kerry should win midfield, and I definitely think that the Dublin defence can leak goals. Kerry will do what Meath did and attempt to rile up Dublin's loose cannons (Connolly and Brennan).

Dublin's attack should be able to create chances though. Bernard Brogan has been criticised in the Championship this year, but he is winning plenty of possession. He just needs to get his confidence up a bit in terms of shooting.

Pretty much agree with all thats gone before here. I think Dublin will do what they have been doing so far- score a lot but cough up a lot of chances too. My fear from a Dublin perspective would be that the Kerry forward line will take a lot more of their chances than Meath or Cork did. I don't know whether Fitzmaurice will play Donaghy on the edge of the square or not and hit the long ball in - O'Carroll is well equipped to deal with that ploy as he never really seeks to catch the ball rather break it out. The concern I'd have from the Cork match is the over reliance on the corner backs - Cooper/O'Brien to tidy up the breaking ball, where previously the half backs were detailed to do so. This to my mind would be the primary area Gooch Sullys x2 and Walsh will look to bag the goals from.

The flow of the game I feel will be dictated by the start Kerry make - if like in their previous games they get an early jump and settle into a defensive mode to protect 5-7 points the writing is on the wall. Lessons learned from the 2011 final and some of the negative tactics borrowed from other teams will ensure that Dublin wont be allowed get up a head of steam. If Kerry can get to 50 mins with a decent advantage and use their replacements astutely, they'll win. The Dublin game isn't set up for long range points against a packed defence and I feel a motivated and hardworking defensive plan will win out for the kingdom.

On the other hand if Dublin can convert 50% of their goal chances which on average number 5-8 a game - and there's no reason to think they wont exploit a few gaps in Kerrys defence, they are an unstoppable force in open play. So if the game remains an open affair and Kerry need to keep players in attacking areas Dublin may well repeat the handout given in Killarney in February. Ta

One of these days Bernard Brogan will click and Dublin will start converting a few of the umpteen goal chances they create every match. It might happen against Kerry, it might not. But it is coming IMO. I fancy Dublin to win by 4/5 points.

keane2097 wrote: »

Not convinced by that. Think he played above himself in 2010. He's been pretty solidly in the mediocre camp for two years now that even the odd massive performance wouldn't make me think he's all that good. At some stage we have to match the level of performance with our perception of how good a player he's meant to be. Personally thought he should have been dropped pretty early on this year, Dublin's forwards on the bench are way too good to be putting up with passengers.

I have to disagree. Berno is one of the best forwards in the country. He's playing a different game this year on Gavins instruction. He's working a lot harder for the team than ever before. Plus he's having a little bit of a confidence crisis when shooting. But class is permanent. I've no doubt in my mind at all that he'll be back shooting the lights out again.

Poor_old_gill wrote: »

How long does a player need to be having a crisis of confidence for people to realise that maybe he isn't that good. I would have thought that 2 seasons would be sufficient.

There are much bigger threats in the Dublin forward line that Brogan

We're bolloxed so ... I take it we're no longer a 1 man team then ? Tired listening to these diverse opinions of either he's an ordinary player or we're a one man team .. and him opening supermarkets is effecting his form

DoctaDee wrote: »

We're bolloxed so ... I take it we're no longer a 1 man team then ? Tired listening to these diverse opinions of either he's an ordinary player or we're a one man team .. and him opening supermarkets is effecting his form

Who says that Dublin are a one man team?

MDM
Cluxton
Flynn
Mannion
O Sullivan
McCarthy
Kilkenny
Brennan

There are a list of players who are easily more important to Dublin than Brogan- there's probably more

Also I think you mentioning supermarkets is trivialising the situation- the GAA has tried to up it's media profile greatly in the last few years and Brogan has been pushed as the poster boy of this. It clearly has affected his performances as they dwindled a ridiculous amount in the last couple of years, so its reasonable to assume that he has let the media attention go to his head.

You don't have to do too much searching thru the forums to find countless "opinions" of BB being the 1 man team ... stop BB stop Dublin is the old chestnut. I'd agree that they're far from a 1 man tean FWIW. I don't know whether you and others post regarding BB to illicit some response from Dubs - but anyone down in Killarney last February will understand that Bernard was far from being an ordinary player

I've previously posted this year that they should consider dropping BB, as his performances were poor and his play was detracting from the overall teamwork ... but that doesn't judge him in any respects as an ordinary player

keane2097 wrote: »

Why not just argue the points being made instead of going on about some "one man team" thing that neither of us said?

I don't think performances in Killarney in February are the sort of thing to prove you're worth your place in one of the best forward lines in the country for September. Brogan was excellent in 2010, good in 2011, poor in 2012 and borderline is a passenger this year.

There's a pattern there,I would think Gill's post above is a decent theory as to where it's coming from, but either way the Bernard Brogan of the last two seasons is nothing like a blue chip forward.

EDIT: Just saw your edit. On Brogan being "ordinary" - he certainly has been extremely ordinary, if not downright poor, in this year's Championship and wouldn't be in the top 20 of forwards for the season to date. Last year he was certainly a lot closer to ordinary than extraordinary also. 2010 he was certainly extraordinary, and in 2011 he was at least very good, but if he's still playing at current levels next year and the year after? You have to acknowledge the ship has sailed at some stage.

I respect you opinion.. thanks

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Well why have they not shown their hand ?
What sort of hand did they show v Cork ?

They got a a scare at home v Cork, going for what looked like a very comfortable position in charge of the game to being in a position where they were hanging on
You would have expected them to then go out and thump a inexperienced, tried 3rd division team in Croke Park, but they didn't
Fair enough they ere not hanging on but their performance asked more questions than it answered.
So why where they holding some thing back ?
This year Pat Spillane criticised Mayo for essentially taking their foot off the pedal v Galway and Roscommom when the game was over, he implied that good teams like Kerry never do that, never let up on the intensity.
If that is the case why did they not hammer Cavan into the ground ?

Kerry have no other hand to show, that is their problem.

What Pat Spillane thinks is not illustrative of anything.

Fr Tod Umptious wrote: »

Yea I agree, but I'm sure I heard and read others say it too.

It's a bit like the debate you are having with the guy about Brogan, I am no fan of the theory that a team or a player are 'going to come good' at a certain time, when to date they have been average.
And there are some who believe that that is the case with Kerry in 2013.

I expect what people mean when they say "Kerry have yet to show their hand" is that Kerry are capable of either springing an unexpected tactical plan or they are capable of playing significantly than they have done so far this year on a one off basis.

Having spent an awful lot of time watching both teams play this year I'm a lot closer to backing Dublin -3 than Kerry +3, but neither of the above two possibilities are as far beyond the realms of possibility and your posts seem to suggest.

Kerry, more than any other team this year by a vast distance, needed to get to this stage without exerting themselves, as like last year they probably only have one really big performance in them. They certainly weren't going to waste any energy trying to obliterate Cavan and showed it pretty plainly in the substitutions they made.

Playing as they played against Tyrone last year - at least up until the point that the game was won and they started the dreadful fouling - Kerry would most certainly push Dublin very, very close. Playing like they did against Donegal and have done mostly this year, they'll probably lose by five or six.

Maybe they don't have another performance of that level in them, I think it's pretty easy to imagine they could do.

I think people are underestimating the how far Kerry will go not to show their hand.

As a Kerryman I enjoy the propaganda that comes out of the Kerry camp nearly as much as the football.

"Sure we're the underdogs....."

corny wrote: »

Overstating it a bit. Dublin have really only had one contest this year and Brogan played well in it. Against Cork it was obvious to see he kicked a couple into the keepers hands and hit the post when he should have scored but he had a good game in general play. He won a lot of dirty ball out of front of Shields and used it very well for the most part creating a couple of scores for others.

I agree he isn't the player he was but its rubbish to say he's a passenger with the options Dublin have. KK, Flynn and Rock are the only Dublin forwards who've consistently been good this year. Mannion excelled in the non contests and against Mickey Burke (Brogan would have destroyed him) but was largely anonymous against a decent defender. Connolly was a hindrance in the build up play against Cork and has done little damage with the ball all season. O' Gara, Andrews, Cullen and Costello have done little to indicate they'd fair better than BB when the going gets tough either. McManamon will always be used from the bench.

Dublins high scoring totals this year haven't really come scintillating play from the forwards. Its the numbers coming from deep doing the damage. That and Stephen Cluxton.

Brogan can still be a match winner. He'll take Kerrys best marker next day or another double team effort but its not a forlorn hope he'll be just that.

Kerry have plenty of things to fear from Dublin but Brogan is not one of them.

Ed Winchester wrote: »

Watch who picks him up. Guaranteed its Marc O'Sé.

Shane Enright i'd say.

There is nothing unknown about kerry, of all the teams in Ireland we know the most about Kerry.

Kerry have no hand that they have not shown to devastating affect on many occasions

They are not under and radar apart from one Kerry people are creating.

This kerry team have been contenders for 10 years, they have won plenty in that time so they have never been dangerous due to being quite, underestimated, hidden, untested etc.

Anyone who wrote kerry off over the past 10 years for any of the above reasons was foolish, how could anyone write off a team that had won an all ireland so recently and kerry were in that position for a long time.

The only argument against Kerry would have been putting back to back AIs they did that once but every team finds it difficult to perform two years in a row so this argument is not peculiar to kerry, it's a modern fact.

Kerry did not win the Al last year so there is no reason to underestimate them now.

ProudDUB wrote: »

I'd bet my house on Marc O'Se marking BB too. Anyone who thinks he should be dropped needs their heads examined. I bet the people who say that never go to Dublin games in person. They only watch them on TV. If you think that what he scores is the only bench mark for how well he is playing, that is fair enough. But there are loads of things the telly does not show. He automatically draws other teams best markers, and if he so much as looks at a ball, 2-3 players automatically descend on him, coz it is in their heads what he can & not what he is actually doing in a game. There is a reason why Paddy Andrews (before he got injured) and Paul Mannion are having the good seasons that they are. Trust me, if BB wasn't there, there is no way in hell they would be getting the scores that they are. And as for his scoring being the only way to measure how well he is playing...well why not ask that Cadogan lad from Cork how much he enjoyed marking him in their recent quarter final encounter & you'll soon have your answer !

Cadogan is a poor man marker though and that was a terrible match-up on Counihan's part.

Cadogan got torn apart by both James O Donoghue & Declan O Sullivan against Kerry and then he was taken off.

I don't want to start an argument with you-but you mention other people not watching games/not going to them and seeing the full picture- you need to watch more Cork games before you describe Cadogan as a 'man-marker' because he certainly isn't a good one

Nobody's mentioning Alan brogan, true he won't he match fit but having him there will surely help Bernard. I reckon he'll make a big impact from the bench

Interesting to note since Alan last played, vs Meath in the Leinster final last year, Bernard hasn't been putting up the big scores like he used to. With Alan and Bernard getting league game time behind them next year I think we'll see the 2010 and 2011 footballers of the year come good again